m********4
发帖数: 607 | 1
_____________________________________
I don't understand why some people feel scared after reading above post.
This is simple calculation:
Year 2008- Year 2007= 18403-18065=338
Year 2009-year 2008=18883-18403=480
Year2010-Year 2009=19392-18883=509
Is 509 big different from 480? I don't think so.
From NRMP report, " Seventy-senve more position (1.5%) were offered in 2010
compared with 2009 in internal-medicine -categorial (4,999 vs 4,922......)"
If you are interested, this is the link.
http://ww | l********y
发帖数: 2295 | 2 if we do a simple math, for 2010:
AMG=19,392
1st year residency spot is 24,000
# for 2011 match is 37,556.
Let's assume 100% of AMG will match, so the chance for an IMG to match is:
(24,000-19,392)/(37,556-19,392)=4608/18164=25.37%.
correct me if there is anything wrong, since FA said match rate for IMG was
49% in 2006, 46% in 2007, and 42% in 2008.
thanks a lot. | e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 3 Some AMGs + DOs were withdrew/no rank list/not matched, so more positions
for other types of candidates.
The "match rate" didn't count all applicants, but only people submitted rank
order list. This rate = 39.8 for non-US IMGs in 2010.
(24,000-19,392)/(37,556-19,392)=4608/18164=25.37%.
was 49% in 2006, 46% in 2007, and 42% in 2008.
【在 l********y 的大作中提到】
: if we do a simple math, for 2010:
: AMG=19,392
: 1st year residency spot is 24,000
: # for 2011 match is 37,556.
: Let's assume 100% of AMG will match, so the chance for an IMG to match is:
: (24,000-19,392)/(37,556-19,392)=4608/18164=25.37%.
: correct me if there is anything wrong, since FA said match rate for IMG was
: 49% in 2006, 46% in 2007, and 42% in 2008.
: thanks a lot.
| e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 4 Good discussion. We are not scared. Yes the number of residency spots has
also been increased in recent years. The concern is that the number of
applicants has been increased FASTER than the number of positions. See the
following figure. | l********y
发帖数: 2295 | 5 Thanks a lot Eric. So the match rate does decline on a yearly basis (2-3%).
If the trend keeps the same for the coming year, I would not be surprised if
it's 36-37% for 2011, and about 1/3 for 2012.
rank
【在 e*****a 的大作中提到】
: Some AMGs + DOs were withdrew/no rank list/not matched, so more positions
: for other types of candidates.
: The "match rate" didn't count all applicants, but only people submitted rank
: order list. This rate = 39.8 for non-US IMGs in 2010.
:
: (24,000-19,392)/(37,556-19,392)=4608/18164=25.37%.
: was 49% in 2006, 46% in 2007, and 42% in 2008.
| e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 6 Projected first-year US medical school (MD) enrollment. The DO schools
increase in an even more rapid pace. | e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 7 This is correct. Hope the number of residency spots will be increased faster.
. If the trend keeps the same for the coming year, I would not be surprised
if it's 36-37% for 2011, and about 1/3 for 2012.
【在 l********y 的大作中提到】
: Thanks a lot Eric. So the match rate does decline on a yearly basis (2-3%).
: If the trend keeps the same for the coming year, I would not be surprised if
: it's 36-37% for 2011, and about 1/3 for 2012.
:
: rank
| l********y
发帖数: 2295 | 8 This is helpful, thanks a lot Eric.
at least for me, 1/3 is not bad at all, worth a try. Considering
opportunities for getting a NIH grant is <10% and getting tenured for researchers is less
than 1%. | l********y
发帖数: 2295 | 9 the 49-46-42% is for non-US-citizen IMGs. match rate for US-citizen IMGs has
been steady, about 50%. | l********z
发帖数: 810 | 10 这个帖子让大家更理智，但是已经在风尖浪口申请2011的人们只能向前冲了，等过两个
月还拿不到多少IV再想plan B吧。目前还是集中精力把package中不足的地方尽力去补
，多OB或者extern,找connection,练interview.
让那些还在犹豫是否要考的人们去讨论未来的趋势再做决定吧。
希望今年申请的同仁们都尽最大努力，得到最好的结果！
let's work harder and even harder,pray for the best,prepare for the worst! | | | e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 11 The 2009 enrollment will enter the race in 2012. | l********y
发帖数: 2295 | 12 this looks scary..
the lesson is we should apply as early as possible..sign...
【在 e*****a 的大作中提到】
: The 2009 enrollment will enter the race in 2012.
| d****y
发帖数: 2180 | 13 I think the residency positions will increase eventually, otherwise it still
won't meet the need for health care reform.
The problem is when the government will have the money for more residency
positions. | l********z
发帖数: 810 | 14 现在害怕也没用了，还是那句话谋事在人成事在天。走一步看一步吧！ | l*******8
发帖数: 1745 | 15 Eric 非常好心地指出了竞争严重性年胜一年，并且提醒大家要多申请并且有back up
plan. 我以前上学的地方2002年招100个医学生，2007年招了125,2009年招了150个。大
家自己掂量掂量吧。现在工作的地方大批的fifth pathway, Carribean med school
students,他们的竞争力很强的啊。
【在 m********4 的大作中提到】
:
: _____________________________________
: I don't understand why some people feel scared after reading above post.
: This is simple calculation:
: Year 2008- Year 2007= 18403-18065=338
: Year 2009-year 2008=18883-18403=480
: Year2010-Year 2009=19392-18883=509
: Is 509 big different from 480? I don't think so.
: From NRMP report, " Seventy-senve more position (1.5%) were offered in 2010
: compared with 2009 in internal-medicine -categorial (4,999 vs 4,922......)"
| t*******n
发帖数: 224 | 16 Does this mean the door will almost close for FMGs by 2012 match, unless
there is a dramatic increase in residency positions?
【在 e*****a 的大作中提到】
: The 2009 enrollment will enter the race in 2012.
| e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 17 Not so fast. Not all of the 23,347 students can graduate. There are also
about 2000+ DO residency positions. IMGs still will have some opportunities
in the near future, even without a big increase in PGY-1 positions. The
competition will be tougher for sure.
there is a dramatic increase in residency positions?
【在 t*******n 的大作中提到】
: Does this mean the door will almost close for FMGs by 2012 match, unless
: there is a dramatic increase in residency positions?
| l********z
发帖数: 810 | 18 提醒的好，一边申请一边准备back up plan.真是累啊，不知道最后会落到哪个火坑。
nurse?PA？ | s*****9
发帖数: 445 | 19 you mean third year in their med school, AKA September, 2012 or September,
2011? ----confused, thx!
【在 e*****a 的大作中提到】
: The 2009 enrollment will enter the race in 2012.
| e*****a
发帖数: 1334 | 20 They will apply for the residency in September, 2012.
, 2011? ----confused, thx!
【在 s*****9 的大作中提到】
: you mean third year in their med school, AKA September, 2012 or September,
: 2011? ----confused, thx!
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