d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 1 As you know, I have been a true believer of systematic trading and have
practised such through different tools, indicators, strategies. However, the
journey to find a holy grail hasn't never been easy. No matter what you do
and how you tweak, there are always outliers either making you sacrifice
terrific gain or caught by humongous losses. This reminds me somebody's
famous saying that trading is art not science.
During 2007-2009 down turn, I made progress in maturing the KE system. At
the very beginning, it was just a simple concept of moving risk reward
calculator. Before long, I was able to discover the KE indicator and applied
that to track index and stocks. After many back testing, I realized it's
capability of latching on big bulls. I made the obvious next step to
implemented on Ninjatrader, which allow me not to be burdenned by tedious
work such stock discovery and monitoring. It did pretty well in 2009. One of
the signature successes was buy signals for Bidu around 400. Only to
realize a double two month later if i remembered correctly. Just when I was
so excited about KE, it made a series of false calls in late 2010, which
gained my big fanzhi title.
Looking back,
Believing in your instincts actually works better than computer generated
ideas. In the end, the market reflects a collection of human behavior any
way. Someone may argue the increasing percentage of computered initiated
tradings. "the market is controlled by computers"! "how dare you ignore that
?" | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 2 I certainly won't ignore such a trend. However, I will not be too crazy
about computerized trading either. Just like doctors can never be replaced
by X-ray, ct and MRI machine. Human intuition still play and should play the
vital role as regard to trading. It is ok to go against your computer. You
should fool yours and more importantly other's computers, rather than fooled
. | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 3 So, what does intuitive trading mean? In essence, you are not pursuing an
optimal solution, rather a modest goal. | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 4 Intuitive trading has a much narrower spectrum, but is highly specialized.
You know what you are good at and stick around with that. You don't capture
every single movement. In return, you just repeat the same practice again
and again. It lacks excitement and lacks buzz. But it can be highly
profitable. | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | | g********5
发帖数: 10335 | 6 haha better to list an abstract
l
the
do
applied
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】
: As you know, I have been a true believer of systematic trading and have
: practised such through different tools, indicators, strategies. However, the
: journey to find a holy grail hasn't never been easy. No matter what you do
: and how you tweak, there are always outliers either making you sacrifice
: terrific gain or caught by humongous losses. This reminds me somebody's
: famous saying that trading is art not science.
: During 2007-2009 down turn, I made progress in maturing the KE system. At
: the very beginning, it was just a simple concept of moving risk reward
: calculator. Before long, I was able to discover the KE indicator and applied
: that to track index and stocks. After many back testing, I realized it's
| g****u
发帖数: 695 | 7 顶一下。
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】
: 写于starbucks
| B********e
发帖数: 1062 | 8 写的不错
the
do
applied
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】
: As you know, I have been a true believer of systematic trading and have
: practised such through different tools, indicators, strategies. However, the
: journey to find a holy grail hasn't never been easy. No matter what you do
: and how you tweak, there are always outliers either making you sacrifice
: terrific gain or caught by humongous losses. This reminds me somebody's
: famous saying that trading is art not science.
: During 2007-2009 down turn, I made progress in maturing the KE system. At
: the very beginning, it was just a simple concept of moving risk reward
: calculator. Before long, I was able to discover the KE indicator and applied
: that to track index and stocks. After many back testing, I realized it's
| d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 9 Here are couple of tips for intuitive trading:
1. Don't be afraid of mistakes so long as you keep a consistent risk
management measure
2. Think intelligently but act slowly (be lazy)
3. Concentrate on the best of the best
4. Choose only risk reverse strategy | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 10 [1] Mistakes and Risk Management
The intuitive traders are prone to mistakes. No matter how good you are,
how many years of experience you have, no one knows what will happen in the
future after all. Therefore, mistakes always accompany with traders. You
either bought too high or too late and vise verse on the sale side. Very
often, the moment you liquidated your position, the stock started to roar;
the minute you bought something, the market began to tank. Everything can
happen. There are just so many uncertainties. As an intuitive trader, the
worse thing you can do is to be panic and action-less about your mistakes.
When the market is against you, there no better way than managing the risk
right. Whatelse can you do? You have to be faithful that there are always
good days. Sure enough, no one can be unlucky all the time.
There are many ways to manage your risk. You can use different instruments
to hedge, covered calls, option combos to name a few. Actually, the best of
all, is just to liquidate your position and be on cash. I always think the 8
% rule is the most feasible approach. 8% rule is whether your portfolio
dropped 8%, go on cash. | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 11 History as well as my own trading experience tell that get 8% loss back
should be effortless. If you let your portfolio deteriorates more, it
becomes harder to recover and sometimes even impossible. | d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 12 I was reading about book about 80/20 rule. If you haven’t read it, I highly
recommended. It is a pretty good book. One of the stories I remember from
the book is that. There was a general who had a very unique way to evaluate
his staff. He classified his staff into four categories: intelligent & hard
working, stupid & hard working, stupid & lazy, intelligent & lazy. Based on
his theory, intelligent and hard working guys will make a good staff. For
stupid & hard working guys, fire them immediately. They will cause more work
for him and others. Stupid & lazy guys, you can keep them. There is not
much harm. It is the intelligent & lazy guys will make the general and will
lead. Although I can’t agree with him 100%, this is useful in intuitive
trading. |
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