c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 1 Obama: 290
Romney: 248
Obama: NV,CO,IA,WI,NH, Ohio
Romney: FL, NC, VA |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 2 大部分预测都是如此。VA也有可能与另一州对调一下。意外总是有的，有时是公平的。
ＶＡ和一个Ｏ８领先的州就有可能意外，但不太影响结局。 |
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 3 但版主和大部分同伙都不愿意承认
呵呵
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: 大部分预测都是如此。VA也有可能与另一州对调一下。意外总是有的，有时是公平的。
: ＶＡ和一个Ｏ８领先的州就有可能意外，但不太影响结局。
|
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 4 我们凭什么要承认你的主观臆测？别急，还有6天就揭晓了。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 但版主和大部分同伙都不愿意承认
: 呵呵
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 5 为了告诉你们
到时候你们会佩服我
呵呵
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 我们凭什么要承认你的主观臆测？别急，还有6天就揭晓了。
|
l******t
发帖数: 12659 | 6 呵呵
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 为了告诉你们
: 到时候你们会佩服我
: 呵呵
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 7 This is consensus, or common sense at this moment. Lot of posters here just
dont want to admit this and deny it to their comfort-ability. There are
still a few, a minority of GOP supporters here who admitted it openly, they
are rational supporters at least. |
h*********n
发帖数: 5789 | 8 我支持Romney，不过我也认为你的预测是对的，Obama会赢。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: Obama: 290
: Romney: 248
: Obama: NV,CO,IA,WI,NH, Ohio
: Romney: FL, NC, VA
|
D*******o
发帖数: 3229 | |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 10 #8, You are a rational poster I can discuss with. But I think Chatman's
number is bit optimistic, I dont think CO, IA, NH are in the bag yet per
current poll average, 1% isnt a sure win..
However, even they aren't, O still will win 271. |
|
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 11 http://www.dailycamera.com/ci_21864171
Between 1968 and 2004 Colorado voted for the Republican presidential
candidate in every election but one. Then in 2008, Barack Obama became only
the second Democrat to win the state in 40 years. What led to this trend
reversal in Colorado? One of the primary reasons is the Latino vote. While
Obama's support has declined in some population sectors since then, it has
actually grown with Colorado Latinos. For this reason, I argue that Colorado
is not a swing state despite what the polls are saying, in fact Obama will
win the state by at least 3-4 points.
A primary example of the effect of the Latino vote came in 2010. Michael
Bennett beat Ken Buck to join Mark Udall as the first Colorado Democratic
Senate duo since 1979. Here's the remarkable thing about Bennett's victory:
he was supposed to lose. Nearly every poll had Ken Buck winning the election
by as much as 9 points. His average advantage according RealClearPolitics.
com was 3 points. What's more, this was year that the Democratic party
suffered a "shellacking" in congressional races across the country. Support
for President Obama was very low. A Pulse Opinion Research poll taken a week
before the midterm elections found that 53 percent of the population in
Colorado disapproved of the job the President was doing. Despite the
negative shadow of Obama, the general anti-Democrat mood, and the vast
majority of polls pointing to a Ken Buck victory, in the end Michael Bennett
claimed victory.
So how did Bennett win? Bennett won by a razor thin margin of 30,000 votes
because he had the support of 81 percent of Latino voters, which together
gave Bennett over 116,000 votes to Buck's 27,000 Latino votes. Had the two
candidates split the vote instead, Buck would have won the election by 15,
000 votes. If Bennett had received less than 70 percent of the Latino vote,
he would have lost the election as well; that's how vital the huge Latino
support was to his victory. It's no secret why most pundits now cite this
increase in Latino population and voter participation as the factor that
turned Colorado from a red state to a purple state (or even a slightly blue
state).
According to the Pew Hispanic Center and U.S. Census data Latinos made up 12
.2 percent of eligible Colorado voters in 2008. That year, exit polls
determined that Obama had the support of 61 percent of Colorado Latinos
compared to John McCain's 38 percent in the election. McCain's share of the
Latino vote was relatively good by Republican standards. At the time, McCain
was perceived relatively well by the Latino community compared to most
Republicans because of his support of the Dream Act and comprehensive
immigration reform. Romney is quite the opposite in this sense, having made
inflammatory remarks during the primary campaign such as his promise to veto
the Dream Act, his talk of self-deportation, and criticism of in-state
tuition for undocumented youth. This has not gone unnoticed by the Latino
population and is one reason why Romney will not come close to receiving the
kind of support George W. Bush or even John McCain received from Latinos.
What does all this tell us about Obama's chances in Colorado in 2012? Well,
that he is going to win the state. Whereas in 2008 Latinos comprised only 12
.2 percent of the electorate, in 2012 they comprise 13.7 percent according
to the Pew Hispanic Research Center. That has translated into a 17 percent
increase in Latino voters registered to vote as Democrats. Whereas in 2008,
Obama received 61 percent of the Latino vote in Colorado, in 2012 Obama is
receiving support from 69 percent or more of the now larger Latino
population in Colorado according to a survey conducted by Latino Decisions.
Whereas in 2008, Obama ran against a candidate perceived as friendly to the
Latino community, in 2012 he is running against a candidate disliked by the
Latino community.
Some try to argue that the Latino community has become disenchanted with the
president because of high unemployment and the failure to pass immigration
reform. To some extent this opinion is true but support for the president
has actually increased in Colorado. Moreover, Latinos, like myself, are well
aware that it was Republicans in Congress that blocked the Dream Act in
2010, not President Obama, and that immigration reform is impossible not
because Obama does not care about it but rather because Republicans would
simply filibuster any attempt to pass it just as they did with the far more
palatable (to conservatives at least) Dream Act. Finally, Latinos support
the president's overtures such as his attempt to pass the Dream Act and his
enactment of deferred action for young undocumented immigrants.
Currently, the average of the Colorado polls on RealClearPolitics.com shows
a tied presidential race. However, the average of the polls for Colorado has
a recent history of underestimating the effect of the Latino vote on major
races. In 2010, Ken Buck was supposed to beat Michael Bennett by an average
of 3 points, but he lost instead by 0.3 points, a difference of 3.3 points.
In 2008, the average of the polls suggested Obama would win Colorado by 5.5
points, but he won it by 9 points, a difference of 3.5 points. In 2012, the
average of the polls suggest a tie, which to me means President Obama will
actually carry the state by at least 3-4 points and perhaps more thanks to
the increased support from the larger Latino population this year. |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 12 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 为了告诉你们
: 到时候你们会佩服我
: 呵呵
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 13 #11, I am glad your ZT "However, the average of the polls for Colorado has a
recent history of underestimating the effect of the Latino vote" confirm my
personal observation. |
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 14 我从不象大多舔共和党屁眼者那样骂人
而是讲道理
然后让你们佩服
呵呵
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 15 CO, IA估计可能性很大
NH才4张票，估计不影响啥
为啥NH在东北部那些州里这么特立独行啊？
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: #8, You are a rational poster I can discuss with. But I think Chatman's
: number is bit optimistic, I dont think CO, IA, NH are in the bag yet per
: current poll average, 1% isnt a sure win..
: However, even they aren't, O still will win 271.
|
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 16 我同意你的判断，这个应该是共识。
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 17 哈哈
你使劲骂
我从不骂人
我以理服人
通过事实让你们佩服我
【在 g******s 的大作中提到】
: 我同意你的判断，这个应该是共识。
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 18 Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise. |
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 19 你嘴巴这么臭还说别人。建议斑竹封了这个人。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我从不象大多舔共和党屁眼者那样骂人
: 而是讲道理
: 然后让你们佩服
: 呵呵
|
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 20 还真是有脸说，在版面上和私人邮箱里轰炸污言秽语的都是你们这帮左棍。
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
: argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise.
|
|
|
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 21 挣大你眼睛看看，就在这个帖子里面，谁在骂人？？？
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
: argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise.
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 22 NV, CO 十有八九在O8 名下。
大选结果悬念不大，如果从观战角度来看，让人感兴趣的是
1）OHIO是不是如预料进入O8口袋
2）VA和FL的最终结果是最难的，O8的反弹+SANDY助威把这俩个州R的优势搬回来了，到
底鹿死谁手专家们都说不好。我估计专家预测VA（O）FL（R）的概率最大是对的。最近
WASHINGTON POST， PPP预测是领先4点，其他俩家是TIE。PPP有偏O8， 对照过去的名
调，有+2点的嫌疑，因此专家们给了08领先1点的公平预测。
SANDY对VA影响是大的，要么加分，让O8锁定这州，要么摇摆回R边，如果VA选民对
OBAMA处理SANDY满意，R想追都追不上。
SANDY给了08主动的机会，同时宣传自己是合格的总统，同时让CLINGTON替他站台，这
是典型的扬长避短， 把握机会， 高招。说实话让CLINTON更有号召力。共和党没这资
源，BUSH不是不想出来，是别人不让他出来。 今年大概是CLINTON救了08。 |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 23 08的优势就是占据OHIO的主动，只要赢这个州，70%就赢大选。当然R还有机会赢OHIO，
只是25%概率。
VA可以成为O8的双保险，他只要赢三个之一（包括FL），他基本定局，而R需要至少俩
还要加其他州。这就是舆论说R打得是UPHILL之战。
当然还有各种变数。2012年的选战很经典。 |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 24 It appears that Ohio is more and more like sure bid for O as this late. |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 25 To godence,
The first attack is from
发信人: jybear (OakCreek), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: 估计Obama会得２８０－２９０张票
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 31 14:36:48 2012, 美东)
佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
Then chatman criticizes jybear for supporting GOP, its not nice, but its not
a PA. |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 26 CBS的调查比较中性，今天的民意证明VA和FL很紧绷，鹿死谁手都不知道。
Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542715/poll-obama-holds-s
President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state
of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times
poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground
in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in
Ohio - exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however
, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new
survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47
percent. The president's lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in
early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49
percent to 47 percent advantage.
The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus three percentage points.
The survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28 and completed before the onset of
the "superstorm" Sandy.
Romney has taken the lead among seniors in Florida in the new survey and
increased his lead among white voters, and he has a significant advantage
among independents in Virginia. In Florida and Ohio, the candidates are now
running about even on handling the economy. In Virginia, Romney has an edge.
Poll: Storm puts close race on pause
Full coverage: Campaign 2012
In Florida and Ohio, the president leads among those who have already cast
their ballots, with a significant lead in Ohio, 60 to 34 percent. In Florida
, Mr. Obama is up 50 to 44 percent. Among those who have yet to cast their
vote, the two candidates are even in these states. Just a small percentage
of voters in Virginia have already voted.
There are few voters left in these swing states who haven't made up their
minds. Now, at least 95 percent of likely voters - including both Obama and
Romney voters - have decided who they will support.
Most supporters from both camps say they strongly favor their candidate,
though Mr. Obama's are slightly more likely to say they strongly favor him.
But Romney has been improving on this measure - especially in Florida, from
57 percent a month ago to 74 percent today - nearly even with the president.
As they have throughout the fall, in all three states Republicans remain
more enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats. Florida Republicans
in particular have become far more enthusiastic than Democrats over the
past month. There is now a 16-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans and
Democrats in Florida, 63 percent to 47 percent, up from four points a month
ago (52 to 48 percent). |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 27 I reported this in morning :) |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 28 Spin whatever you want but that doesn't make the truth. Since when CBS poll
becomes neutral? It's so rooted for 0bama and wastes no time to fake a boost
right after Sandy. CBS/NYT was almost the most inaccurate poll in 2008.
state
however
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: CBS的调查比较中性，今天的民意证明VA和FL很紧绷，鹿死谁手都不知道。
: Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight
: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542715/poll-obama-holds-s
: President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state
: of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times
: poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground
: in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
: Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in
: Ohio - exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however
: , has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 29 really, 难怪那些专家算出来赢的概率（SAM WANG)都上90%， 其实ROMNEY还是有赢的
不小可能。 |
a*****8
发帖数: 2689 | 30 我不喜欢O8,但我承认他会赢，这个是没有办法的。 |
|
|
x**z
发帖数: 2437 | 31 就怕SAndy影响VA， NC中产的投票啊。。。 |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 32 It's an insult to my ability to attack if this is a PA compared to all the
shits you liberals put on here.
I really can't find another word to describe him other than '搅屎棍' given
his records on variety of discussion boards at MITBBS. It's a fact.
not
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: To godence,
: The first attack is from
: 发信人: jybear (OakCreek), 信区: USANews
: 标 题: Re: 估计Obama会得２８０－２９０张票
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 31 14:36:48 2012, 美东)
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
: Then chatman criticizes jybear for supporting GOP, its not nice, but its not
: a PA.
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 33 ls, the survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28, before Sandy. Dont be too rush
until you read all post. |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 34 有可能SANDY 帮Ｒ的忙，谁都说不清，到时候结果出来就知道了。
ＮＣ要最后归Ｏ８几乎是不可能的，因为Ｏ８只赢一点上回，Ｏ８大概这四年流失了３
－４％选票。 |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 35 #32, even in your reply, you labeled "all the
shits you liberals put on here". Do you have some decent education here at
all? What did I say was what you called " shits"? You are amazing.
Sorry my discussion with you stop here, thank you. |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 36 Thank god!!!! I'm so glad you can leave my posts alone.
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: #32, even in your reply, you labeled "all the
: shits you liberals put on here". Do you have some decent education here at
: all? What did I say was what you called " shits"? You are amazing.
: Sorry my discussion with you stop here, thank you.
|
t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 37 看来飓风还真对总统选举产生了影响.
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: NV, CO 十有八九在O8 名下。
: 大选结果悬念不大，如果从观战角度来看，让人感兴趣的是
: 1）OHIO是不是如预料进入O8口袋
: 2）VA和FL的最终结果是最难的，O8的反弹+SANDY助威把这俩个州R的优势搬回来了，到
: 底鹿死谁手专家们都说不好。我估计专家预测VA（O）FL（R）的概率最大是对的。最近
: WASHINGTON POST， PPP预测是领先4点，其他俩家是TIE。PPP有偏O8， 对照过去的名
: 调，有+2点的嫌疑，因此专家们给了08领先1点的公平预测。
: SANDY对VA影响是大的，要么加分，让O8锁定这州，要么摇摆回R边，如果VA选民对
: OBAMA处理SANDY满意，R想追都追不上。
: SANDY给了08主动的机会，同时宣传自己是合格的总统，同时让CLINGTON替他站台，这
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 38 Obama: 290
Romney: 248
Obama: NV,CO,IA,WI,NH, Ohio
Romney: FL, NC, VA |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 39 大部分预测都是如此。VA也有可能与另一州对调一下。意外总是有的，有时是公平的。
ＶＡ和一个Ｏ８领先的州就有可能意外，但不太影响结局。 |
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 40 但版主和大部分同伙都不愿意承认
呵呵
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: 大部分预测都是如此。VA也有可能与另一州对调一下。意外总是有的，有时是公平的。
: ＶＡ和一个Ｏ８领先的州就有可能意外，但不太影响结局。
|
|
|
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 41 我们凭什么要承认你的主观臆测？别急，还有6天就揭晓了。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 但版主和大部分同伙都不愿意承认
: 呵呵
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 42 为了告诉你们
到时候你们会佩服我
呵呵
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 我们凭什么要承认你的主观臆测？别急，还有6天就揭晓了。
|
l******t
发帖数: 12659 | 43 呵呵
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 为了告诉你们
: 到时候你们会佩服我
: 呵呵
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 44 This is consensus, or common sense at this moment. Lot of posters here just
dont want to admit this and deny it to their comfort-ability. There are
still a few, a minority of GOP supporters here who admitted it openly, they
are rational supporters at least. |
h*********n
发帖数: 5789 | 45 我支持Romney，不过我也认为你的预测是对的，Obama会赢。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: Obama: 290
: Romney: 248
: Obama: NV,CO,IA,WI,NH, Ohio
: Romney: FL, NC, VA
|
D*******o
发帖数: 3229 | |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 47 #8, You are a rational poster I can discuss with. But I think Chatman's
number is bit optimistic, I dont think CO, IA, NH are in the bag yet per
current poll average, 1% isnt a sure win..
However, even they aren't, O still will win 271. |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 48 http://www.dailycamera.com/ci_21864171
Between 1968 and 2004 Colorado voted for the Republican presidential
candidate in every election but one. Then in 2008, Barack Obama became only
the second Democrat to win the state in 40 years. What led to this trend
reversal in Colorado? One of the primary reasons is the Latino vote. While
Obama's support has declined in some population sectors since then, it has
actually grown with Colorado Latinos. For this reason, I argue that Colorado
is not a swing state despite what the polls are saying, in fact Obama will
win the state by at least 3-4 points.
A primary example of the effect of the Latino vote came in 2010. Michael
Bennett beat Ken Buck to join Mark Udall as the first Colorado Democratic
Senate duo since 1979. Here's the remarkable thing about Bennett's victory:
he was supposed to lose. Nearly every poll had Ken Buck winning the election
by as much as 9 points. His average advantage according RealClearPolitics.
com was 3 points. What's more, this was year that the Democratic party
suffered a "shellacking" in congressional races across the country. Support
for President Obama was very low. A Pulse Opinion Research poll taken a week
before the midterm elections found that 53 percent of the population in
Colorado disapproved of the job the President was doing. Despite the
negative shadow of Obama, the general anti-Democrat mood, and the vast
majority of polls pointing to a Ken Buck victory, in the end Michael Bennett
claimed victory.
So how did Bennett win? Bennett won by a razor thin margin of 30,000 votes
because he had the support of 81 percent of Latino voters, which together
gave Bennett over 116,000 votes to Buck's 27,000 Latino votes. Had the two
candidates split the vote instead, Buck would have won the election by 15,
000 votes. If Bennett had received less than 70 percent of the Latino vote,
he would have lost the election as well; that's how vital the huge Latino
support was to his victory. It's no secret why most pundits now cite this
increase in Latino population and voter participation as the factor that
turned Colorado from a red state to a purple state (or even a slightly blue
state).
According to the Pew Hispanic Center and U.S. Census data Latinos made up 12
.2 percent of eligible Colorado voters in 2008. That year, exit polls
determined that Obama had the support of 61 percent of Colorado Latinos
compared to John McCain's 38 percent in the election. McCain's share of the
Latino vote was relatively good by Republican standards. At the time, McCain
was perceived relatively well by the Latino community compared to most
Republicans because of his support of the Dream Act and comprehensive
immigration reform. Romney is quite the opposite in this sense, having made
inflammatory remarks during the primary campaign such as his promise to veto
the Dream Act, his talk of self-deportation, and criticism of in-state
tuition for undocumented youth. This has not gone unnoticed by the Latino
population and is one reason why Romney will not come close to receiving the
kind of support George W. Bush or even John McCain received from Latinos.
What does all this tell us about Obama's chances in Colorado in 2012? Well,
that he is going to win the state. Whereas in 2008 Latinos comprised only 12
.2 percent of the electorate, in 2012 they comprise 13.7 percent according
to the Pew Hispanic Research Center. That has translated into a 17 percent
increase in Latino voters registered to vote as Democrats. Whereas in 2008,
Obama received 61 percent of the Latino vote in Colorado, in 2012 Obama is
receiving support from 69 percent or more of the now larger Latino
population in Colorado according to a survey conducted by Latino Decisions.
Whereas in 2008, Obama ran against a candidate perceived as friendly to the
Latino community, in 2012 he is running against a candidate disliked by the
Latino community.
Some try to argue that the Latino community has become disenchanted with the
president because of high unemployment and the failure to pass immigration
reform. To some extent this opinion is true but support for the president
has actually increased in Colorado. Moreover, Latinos, like myself, are well
aware that it was Republicans in Congress that blocked the Dream Act in
2010, not President Obama, and that immigration reform is impossible not
because Obama does not care about it but rather because Republicans would
simply filibuster any attempt to pass it just as they did with the far more
palatable (to conservatives at least) Dream Act. Finally, Latinos support
the president's overtures such as his attempt to pass the Dream Act and his
enactment of deferred action for young undocumented immigrants.
Currently, the average of the Colorado polls on RealClearPolitics.com shows
a tied presidential race. However, the average of the polls for Colorado has
a recent history of underestimating the effect of the Latino vote on major
races. In 2010, Ken Buck was supposed to beat Michael Bennett by an average
of 3 points, but he lost instead by 0.3 points, a difference of 3.3 points.
In 2008, the average of the polls suggested Obama would win Colorado by 5.5
points, but he won it by 9 points, a difference of 3.5 points. In 2012, the
average of the polls suggest a tie, which to me means President Obama will
actually carry the state by at least 3-4 points and perhaps more thanks to
the increased support from the larger Latino population this year. |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 49 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 为了告诉你们
: 到时候你们会佩服我
: 呵呵
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 50 #11, I am glad your ZT "However, the average of the polls for Colorado has a
recent history of underestimating the effect of the Latino vote" confirm my
personal observation. |
|
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 51 我从不象大多舔共和党屁眼者那样骂人
而是讲道理
然后让你们佩服
呵呵
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 52 CO, IA估计可能性很大
NH才4张票，估计不影响啥
为啥NH在东北部那些州里这么特立独行啊？
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: #8, You are a rational poster I can discuss with. But I think Chatman's
: number is bit optimistic, I dont think CO, IA, NH are in the bag yet per
: current poll average, 1% isnt a sure win..
: However, even they aren't, O still will win 271.
|
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 53 我同意你的判断，这个应该是共识。
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 54 哈哈
你使劲骂
我从不骂人
我以理服人
通过事实让你们佩服我
【在 g******s 的大作中提到】
: 我同意你的判断，这个应该是共识。
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 55 Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise. |
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 56 你嘴巴这么臭还说别人。建议斑竹封了这个人。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我从不象大多舔共和党屁眼者那样骂人
: 而是讲道理
: 然后让你们佩服
: 呵呵
|
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 57 还真是有脸说，在版面上和私人邮箱里轰炸污言秽语的都是你们这帮左棍。
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
: argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise.
|
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 58 挣大你眼睛看看，就在这个帖子里面，谁在骂人？？？
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: Most non GOP supporters here behave rational and dont rely on PA as their
: argument, vs most GOP supporters here otherwise.
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 59 NV, CO 十有八九在O8 名下。
大选结果悬念不大，如果从观战角度来看，让人感兴趣的是
1）OHIO是不是如预料进入O8口袋
2）VA和FL的最终结果是最难的，O8的反弹+SANDY助威把这俩个州R的优势搬回来了，到
底鹿死谁手专家们都说不好。我估计专家预测VA（O）FL（R）的概率最大是对的。最近
WASHINGTON POST， PPP预测是领先4点，其他俩家是TIE。PPP有偏O8， 对照过去的名
调，有+2点的嫌疑，因此专家们给了08领先1点的公平预测。
SANDY对VA影响是大的，要么加分，让O8锁定这州，要么摇摆回R边，如果VA选民对
OBAMA处理SANDY满意，R想追都追不上。
SANDY给了08主动的机会，同时宣传自己是合格的总统，同时让CLINGTON替他站台，这
是典型的扬长避短， 把握机会， 高招。说实话让CLINTON更有号召力。共和党没这资
源，BUSH不是不想出来，是别人不让他出来。 今年大概是CLINTON救了08。 |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 60 08的优势就是占据OHIO的主动，只要赢这个州，70%就赢大选。当然R还有机会赢OHIO，
只是25%概率。
VA可以成为O8的双保险，他只要赢三个之一（包括FL），他基本定局，而R需要至少俩
还要加其他州。这就是舆论说R打得是UPHILL之战。
当然还有各种变数。2012年的选战很经典。 |
|
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 61 It appears that Ohio is more and more like sure bid for O as this late. |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 62 To godence,
The first attack is from
发信人: jybear (OakCreek), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: 估计Obama会得２８０－２９０张票
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 31 14:36:48 2012, 美东)
佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
Then chatman criticizes jybear for supporting GOP, its not nice, but its not
a PA. |
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 63 CBS的调查比较中性，今天的民意证明VA和FL很紧绷，鹿死谁手都不知道。
Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542715/poll-obama-holds-s
President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state
of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times
poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground
in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in
Ohio - exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however
, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new
survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47
percent. The president's lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in
early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49
percent to 47 percent advantage.
The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus three percentage points.
The survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28 and completed before the onset of
the "superstorm" Sandy.
Romney has taken the lead among seniors in Florida in the new survey and
increased his lead among white voters, and he has a significant advantage
among independents in Virginia. In Florida and Ohio, the candidates are now
running about even on handling the economy. In Virginia, Romney has an edge.
Poll: Storm puts close race on pause
Full coverage: Campaign 2012
In Florida and Ohio, the president leads among those who have already cast
their ballots, with a significant lead in Ohio, 60 to 34 percent. In Florida
, Mr. Obama is up 50 to 44 percent. Among those who have yet to cast their
vote, the two candidates are even in these states. Just a small percentage
of voters in Virginia have already voted.
There are few voters left in these swing states who haven't made up their
minds. Now, at least 95 percent of likely voters - including both Obama and
Romney voters - have decided who they will support.
Most supporters from both camps say they strongly favor their candidate,
though Mr. Obama's are slightly more likely to say they strongly favor him.
But Romney has been improving on this measure - especially in Florida, from
57 percent a month ago to 74 percent today - nearly even with the president.
As they have throughout the fall, in all three states Republicans remain
more enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats. Florida Republicans
in particular have become far more enthusiastic than Democrats over the
past month. There is now a 16-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans and
Democrats in Florida, 63 percent to 47 percent, up from four points a month
ago (52 to 48 percent). |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 64 I reported this in morning :) |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 65 Spin whatever you want but that doesn't make the truth. Since when CBS poll
becomes neutral? It's so rooted for 0bama and wastes no time to fake a boost
right after Sandy. CBS/NYT was almost the most inaccurate poll in 2008.
state
however
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: CBS的调查比较中性，今天的民意证明VA和FL很紧绷，鹿死谁手都不知道。
: Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight
: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542715/poll-obama-holds-s
: President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state
: of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times
: poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground
: in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
: Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in
: Ohio - exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however
: , has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 66 really, 难怪那些专家算出来赢的概率（SAM WANG)都上90%， 其实ROMNEY还是有赢的
不小可能。 |
a*****8
发帖数: 2689 | 67 我不喜欢O8,但我承认他会赢，这个是没有办法的。 |
x**z
发帖数: 2437 | 68 就怕SAndy影响VA， NC中产的投票啊。。。 |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 69 It's an insult to my ability to attack if this is a PA compared to all the
shits you liberals put on here.
I really can't find another word to describe him other than '搅屎棍' given
his records on variety of discussion boards at MITBBS. It's a fact.
not
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: To godence,
: The first attack is from
: 发信人: jybear (OakCreek), 信区: USANews
: 标 题: Re: 估计Obama会得２８０－２９０张票
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 31 14:36:48 2012, 美东)
: 佩服你？真是物以类聚，和0bama一样自恋。到哪你就是一根搅屎棍。
: Then chatman criticizes jybear for supporting GOP, its not nice, but its not
: a PA.
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 70 ls, the survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28, before Sandy. Dont be too rush
until you read all post. |
|
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 71 有可能SANDY 帮Ｒ的忙，谁都说不清，到时候结果出来就知道了。
ＮＣ要最后归Ｏ８几乎是不可能的，因为Ｏ８只赢一点上回，Ｏ８大概这四年流失了３
－４％选票。 |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 72 #32, even in your reply, you labeled "all the
shits you liberals put on here". Do you have some decent education here at
all? What did I say was what you called " shits"? You are amazing.
Sorry my discussion with you stop here, thank you. |
j****r
发帖数: 192 | 73 Thank god!!!! I'm so glad you can leave my posts alone.
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: #32, even in your reply, you labeled "all the
: shits you liberals put on here". Do you have some decent education here at
: all? What did I say was what you called " shits"? You are amazing.
: Sorry my discussion with you stop here, thank you.
|
t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 74 看来飓风还真对总统选举产生了影响.
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: NV, CO 十有八九在O8 名下。
: 大选结果悬念不大，如果从观战角度来看，让人感兴趣的是
: 1）OHIO是不是如预料进入O8口袋
: 2）VA和FL的最终结果是最难的，O8的反弹+SANDY助威把这俩个州R的优势搬回来了，到
: 底鹿死谁手专家们都说不好。我估计专家预测VA（O）FL（R）的概率最大是对的。最近
: WASHINGTON POST， PPP预测是领先4点，其他俩家是TIE。PPP有偏O8， 对照过去的名
: 调，有+2点的嫌疑，因此专家们给了08领先1点的公平预测。
: SANDY对VA影响是大的，要么加分，让O8锁定这州，要么摇摆回R边，如果VA选民对
: OBAMA处理SANDY满意，R想追都追不上。
: SANDY给了08主动的机会，同时宣传自己是合格的总统，同时让CLINGTON替他站台，这
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 75 看来我的预测很准啊
Romney虽然险胜NC
但1%的差距输了FL几乎中盘game over
最后时刻被反超3%的差距输了VA很可惜
看来当初还是预测的保守了点
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: Obama: 290
: Romney: 248
: Obama: NV,CO,IA,WI,NH, Ohio
: Romney: FL, NC, VA
|
m****n
发帖数: 2415 | 76 其实坑王的预测最准.
FL明显应该是SANDY送给了O的, 这种天灾坑王也预测不了,
不然的话应该就100%
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 看来我的预测很准啊
: Romney虽然险胜NC
: 但1%的差距输了FL几乎中盘game over
: 最后时刻被反超3%的差距输了VA很可惜
: 看来当初还是预测的保守了点
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 77 我的是大选前一周预测的，10月31号
坑王是大选前一天预测的啊
【在 m****n 的大作中提到】
: 其实坑王的预测最准.
: FL明显应该是SANDY送给了O的, 这种天灾坑王也预测不了,
: 不然的话应该就100%
|
c***e
发帖数: 1207 | 78 where is 坑王的预测? I want to learn
【在 m****n 的大作中提到】
: 其实坑王的预测最准.
: FL明显应该是SANDY送给了O的, 这种天灾坑王也预测不了,
: 不然的话应该就100%
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 79 发信人: StephenKing (Gay in Abortion), 信区: Seattle
标 题: 11/6更新 奥巴马 ：罗姆尼=303：235
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 6 10:01:55 2012, 美东)
美国总统大选一共538票，269平局，270票获胜。2012年11月，奥巴马 （蓝） 和 罗姆
尼 （红）的选情如下：
深蓝 ：深红 = 196 ：181
两个候选人在这些州民调差距一直在10%以上，比如CA和LA。
浅蓝 ：浅红 = 41 ： 10
浅蓝包括：PA(20), NM(5), MI(16)
浅红包括：MO(10)
虽说以上是浅蓝和浅红州，但基本大局已定。双方差距在5%到10%之间波动，候选人不
会在这些州浪费时间和精力。
把以上的选票加起来，奥巴马 ：罗姆尼 = 237 ：191
摇摆州（swing states）有9个，以下根据选票的多少排序，
FL (29)
OH (18)
NC (15)
VA (13)
WI (10)
CO (9)
IA (6)
NV (6)
NH (4)
我预测，罗姆尼拿下FL(29) NC (15)， 达到235票。
奥巴马的预测是他拿下其他7个州，达到303票。
如果双方打平，宪法第十二修正案规定，众议院将在2013/1/6投票选出总统，每个州一
票。参议院投票选出副总统。可能的结果是罗姆尼-拜登。
最后是美国50个州，哥伦比亚特区，和自治领地的缩写,中文,和选举人团数，方便检索：
AL Alabama 阿拉巴马 (9)
AK Alaska 阿拉斯加 (3)
AZ Arizona 亚利桑那 (10)
AR Arkansas 阿肯色 (6)
CA California 加利福尼亚 (55)
CO Colorado 科罗拉多 (9)
CT Connecticut 康涅狄格 (7)
DE Delaware 特拉华 (3)
DC District of Columbia 哥伦比亚特区 (3)
FL Florida 佛罗里达 (29)
GA Georgia 佐治亚 (16)
HI Hawaii 夏威夷 (4)
ID Idaho 爱达荷 (4)
IL Illinois 伊利诺伊 (20)
IN Indiana 印第安纳 (11)
IA Iowa 衣阿华/爱荷华 (6)
KS Kansas 堪萨斯 (6)
KY Kentucky 肯塔基 (8)
LA Louisiana 路易斯安那 (8)
ME Maine 缅因 (4)
MD Maryland 马里兰 (11)
MA Massachusetts 马萨诸塞 (11)
MI Michigan 密执安/密西根 (16)
MN Minnesota 明尼苏达 (10)
MS Mississippi 密西西比 (6)
MO Missouri 密苏里 (10)
MT Montana 蒙大拿 (3)
NE Nebraska 内布拉斯加 (5)
NV Nevada 内华达 (6)
NH New Hampshire 新罕布什尔 (4)
NJ New Jersey 新泽西 (14)
NM New Mexico 新墨西哥 (5)
NY New York 纽约 (29)
NC North Carolina 北卡罗来纳 (15)
ND North Dakota 北达科他 (3)
OH Ohio 俄亥俄 (18)
OK Oklahoma 俄克拉何马 (7)
OR Oregon 俄勒冈 (7)
PA Pennsylvania 宾夕法尼亚 (20)
PR Puerto Rico 波多黎各
RI Rhode Island 罗德岛 (4)
SC South Carolina 南卡罗来纳 (9)
SD South Dakota 南达科他 (3)
TN Tennessee 田纳西 (11)
TX Texas 得克萨斯 (38)
UT Utah 尤他 (6)
VT Vermont 佛蒙特 (3)
VA Virginia 弗吉尼亚 (13)
VI Virgin Islands 维尔京群岛
WA Washington 华盛顿 (12)
WV West Virginia 西弗吉尼亚 (5)
WI Wisconsin 威斯康星 (10)
WY Wyoming 怀俄明 (3)
【在 c***e 的大作中提到】
: where is 坑王的预测? I want to learn
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 80 I was more cautious, though I predicted O will win, but after I viewed RCP,
I conservatively allocate all states that O's ahead are < + 2 to Romney. O
still wins, but he will get 286 guaranteed, I did not expect he can take
FL at all. |
|
|
c***e
发帖数: 1207 | 81 别说，坑王的预测还真准
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: StephenKing (Gay in Abortion), 信区: Seattle
: 标 题: 11/6更新 奥巴马 ：罗姆尼=303：235
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 6 10:01:55 2012, 美东)
: 美国总统大选一共538票，269平局，270票获胜。2012年11月，奥巴马 （蓝） 和 罗姆
: 尼 （红）的选情如下：
: 深蓝 ：深红 = 196 ：181
: 两个候选人在这些州民调差距一直在10%以上，比如CA和LA。
: 浅蓝 ：浅红 = 41 ： 10
: 浅蓝包括：PA(20), NM(5), MI(16)
: 浅红包括：MO(10)
|
b****y
发帖数: 1010 | 82 Romney 输VA 一点都不可惜。
北V的人口密度大的几个县是支持O8的。但他们一向计票晚。
从06年Webb对Allen开始，VA就不算红州了。原因就是北V快速增长的少数族裔人口。
【在 c*****n 的大作中提到】
: 看来我的预测很准啊
: Romney虽然险胜NC
: 但1%的差距输了FL几乎中盘game over
: 最后时刻被反超3%的差距输了VA很可惜
: 看来当初还是预测的保守了点
|
o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 83 More ppl get educated.
【在 b****y 的大作中提到】
: Romney 输VA 一点都不可惜。
: 北V的人口密度大的几个县是支持O8的。但他们一向计票晚。
: 从06年Webb对Allen开始，VA就不算红州了。原因就是北V快速增长的少数族裔人口。
|
c***e
发帖数: 1207 | 84 我原以为O，R谁赢都有可能，都会是险胜。
,
take
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: I was more cautious, though I predicted O will win, but after I viewed RCP,
: I conservatively allocate all states that O's ahead are < + 2 to Romney. O
: still wins, but he will get 286 guaranteed, I did not expect he can take
: FL at all.
|
c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 85 popular vote是险胜
but electoral vote is definitely not
【在 c***e 的大作中提到】
: 我原以为O，R谁赢都有可能，都会是险胜。
:
: ,
: take
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 86 这个303大选前电视上很多专家都预测了。就是看state poll得出结论。
【在 c***e 的大作中提到】
: 别说，坑王的预测还真准
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c*****n
发帖数: 14445 | 87 really? Cool
never watch TV...
【在 b*****d 的大作中提到】
: 这个303大选前电视上很多专家都预测了。就是看state poll得出结论。
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