b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: brihand (brihand), 信区: Military
标 题: 专家们终于要接受现实:Trump可能赢
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 21 14:54:17 2016, 美东)
Nate Silver 'much less skeptical' that Trump can win
By Nick Gass
Nate Silver's persistent doubts regarding Donald Trump's chances of winning
the Republican nomination are falling, if his recent FiveThirtyEight
analysis is any indication.
"Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would
muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump. But so far, the party
isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort
against [Ted] Cruz," the ESPN polling guru wrote in a post published
Thursday afternoon, titled, "One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump."
While maintaining a sense of skepticism about Trump's chances, Silver ticks
through a list of recent circumstances that would appear to be working in
the Manhattan mogul's favor. Those events include Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad
remarking earlier this week that he hoped Cruz lost his state's caucus
because of his stance on ethanol subsidies; former vice-presidential nominee
Bob Dole telling The New York Times that Cruz's nomination would result in
"cataclysmic" losses for the party in the general election; a lack of help
from his Republican Senate colleagues in the brouhaha over his
constitutional eligibility; and the fact that an anti-Cruz PAC has formed
and is planning to run ads in Iowa, while no anti-Trump effort has yielded
any PAC advertising of note this month.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/donald-trump-nate-silver-218068#ixzz3xuVtOK00 |
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