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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 3 200 day MA is pointing down since Jan 08, and we are way below that
at this point. Don't we have to be above 200MA to claim any long
term bullish sign |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 B&H does not assume more than what you assume:
It also assumes in 10-30 years the market will repeat
its history -- yield positive.
Just like your assumption:
In 10-30 years the market will repeat its history -- does not
turn cyclical (basically any shape that involves rapid cycles,
high spike, and low absolute long-term yield).
Actually I believe that there is no guarantee that S&P won't
turn cyclical, provided the current economy.
Overall it works like a MA, if you buy when 200MA is moving up |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 6 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: newgumin (新股民), 信区: Stock
标 题: 有人关注USB吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 8 22:05:39 2009)
1. 老巴的pick之一。
2. 前天碰200MA后调整。
3. 压力测试结果：不需要资金。
4. YTD涨幅仍落后于WFC和BK。 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 7 I am not stubborn, I wouldn't mind changing my bearish view when I see
positive GDP growth. Half a year late from the bottom in the bull market
is nothing, I may miss initial 30%-50% but I can easily get double in 5-6
years nontheless, and I would still beat methods like DCA easily, with much
lower risk. I would never buy when the index runs into 200MA and the MA is
lowering.
For now, I'd rather hold my view of too good to be true.
US has been counting on money printing for decades, but I don't |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 10 200 trading days takes between 9 and 10 months, Nov low probably will be
got erased in another 3 months, not 1. And we are not above Nov low by much
to begin with. If market can hold strong this summer, yes, I probably will
change my bearish view.
I think 200MA is a pretty good indicator, it nicely predicted the last
top and bottom and didn't lag too much.
https://realtime.bigcharts.com/custom/ameritrade2/big.chart?symb=dji&time=
10yr&freq=1dy&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=268435456&lf3=2&ma=1&maval=200&compidx |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 11 大家都知道假数据没法支撑，开始回归现实了。
好像200MA是个分界线吧，到了底下很多机构就明确又是熊市了。 |
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h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 12 either 50ma/200ma weekly or daily, up to u then. hoho |
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N******r
发帖数: 642 | 13 a simple strategy is long when it is above 200ma and short when it is below.
but you have to sit through the shit. hth. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 14 In a bull market, buy on every pull back. And before
we get under 200MA, it's bull market. |
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b****d
发帖数: 17 | 15 纯ta.
上方200ma阻力位
下方50ma支撑，540平行支撑
5/5, 5/30形成峰峰lower high,成下行+平行wedge,还缺第三个小峰。
rsi,macd下降,负方大，dt外不适合作多，做空赢率75%.
新青蛙持观望状，突破后参照他作决定。 |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 16 By the way,called XLF at today's close,will sell it tomorrow if drops below
21.
I like the performance of $USD today.stand above 200MA for the first time
since middle of 2006. |
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z****n
发帖数: 1514 | 17 Reasons:
1. Its 200MA is 115.5 and provides a good support.
2. QQQQ has been down for 2 and half days and is in previous July End strong
support area.
Still hold my GOOG.
Updated: added more QQQQ Oct 47 calls at 0.89 (now ave cost is 1.00). |
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d******o
发帖数: 227 | 18 最近因为处理自己的一些琐事没有炒股，也没有来这里，刚刚听人说又吵架了，过来看
完了这几天的帖子。特别是很多人一窝蜂的攻击hq。我在这里谈一点我的看法。
总体上觉得hq说的还是比较理性的。他说的看牛兼buy@dip。并不是让大家马上全仓buy
call。而是说接下来一个2-5年的牛市可期。大家在做判断的时候可以作为大方向的前
提。
再看事实上,spy在88附近有support & 20sma support。几次都没有击穿。说明市场在
这一带有比较强的买盘欲望。这可能是buy@dip的位置。
唯一的问题在于，qq喊bull market的时机早了点，正好是市场over bought的时机。所
以这周200点左右的回调让很多人不满。如果是买call的人损失可能很大。以后注意喊
的时机就更完美了。
前几天qq喊的cme&ice是很好的一个例子，大家可以看这次拉起的前兆几天的交易量，
加上突破200ma几天的走势。我记得07年的nmx，08年的nyx都有类似的先兆。
ps:本版最后一贴，以后不会再来了。谢谢大家，谢谢qq。 |
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g*********0
发帖数: 672 | 19 你终于明白TA 就是垃圾的道理了阿
他们一会说碰60MA，一会说碰200MA，一会说50。。。。。
总有道理的阿，哈哈哈哈
大忽悠阿 |
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rh
发帖数: 3901 | 20 为什么TAN跌30%，STP只跌15%
既然目标是200MA，那那个公式有什么用？ |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 22 how bearish is that little candle? this market is doomed for another leg dow
n, babe. see everyone at 200MA. |
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L********3
发帖数: 2272 | 26 是呀，但是哪个值作为下跌百分比的参考值，用相对于50ma的下跌百分比来做比较如何？ |
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J******s
发帖数: 913 | 27 It depends on the volume and the total shares outstanding.
Let say one stock has high average daily volume (e.g., 5% of total shares
traded per day), then 20ma is a better indicator. Many shares are held by
new owners, who are not willing to cut loss. If the PPS starts to turn flat
well below the 20ma, it is a good time to get in for a bounce. It is also
possible 20ma will become the new resistance as those holders will break
even.
If another stock has thin average volume (e.g., 1% of shares tra |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 30 200MA见先。
compx 2025我会cover。 |
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d*******2
发帖数: 1480 | 31 200MA 是多少？青蛙请教
２００ＭＡ重要。 |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 33 1. 200 ema or 200 sma?
2. what is the accurate #?
i see different results from stockcharts.com and y! finance. even in y!
finance, 200d ma in "My portfolio" is different from the one in chart.
really confused about these #.
for example of dji etf dia:
stockcharts, 200 sma 96.74, 200 ema 93.85.
y! finance, 200 ema in chart 97.73, 200 sma 97.73. this must be a bug.
y! finance, 200 ma in "My portforlio" (no idea it's sma or ema), 99.38.
so it's hard to verify if this "200ma support" theory holds or |
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m*****n
发帖数: 84 | 34 all daily or different periods? |
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e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 36 没有准确的数字，本来就不应该当成一个点来看。
their |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 37 很可能走势是前天抢反弹的，被走势突然逆转，震惊之余以至于不敢相信这是事实。
当几天后逐渐认识到事情无法挽回(例如突破200MA)承受不住心理压力而割肉时，
而MM看到这一情景后，再cover空仓或者开始建仓。行情由此逆转。
多少年来，一直如此。 |
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f*******t
发帖数: 1978 | 46 摇啊摇，摇到外婆桥， 醒了没？ 哈哈。。。BAC 200MA already gone le.
xoxoxo |
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f*******t
发帖数: 1978 | 47 one is enough, 200MA is broken, BAC is dead in middle to long term. I am kind of feeling I can see BAC touch10 this year very soon. xoxo |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 48 如果一定说要有，就是95%赔钱……
什么8% cut loss，什么no avd，什么let profit run，什么200ma反弹，什么买右边不
买左边，都是反例大把大把的。
我看rim的死捂策略虽然看似笨拙，其实是真功夫。就是选股得选好了。实在不会选，
买指数。现在的青蛙有ETF可买，比十几年前的青蛙们还是幸福多了。 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 49 而美元过200ma继续向上势头很猛。
丐帮“反弹则空，大跌就跑”的原则要在本月继续贯彻。 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 50 上周五的长下影针收盘， 落在了200MA上方， 最低点9838？
是不是说明技术派进场捞货了？ |
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