p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 1 JPM hasn't gone up much after releasing very good earning.
I feel it may break big resistant, $47 soon. After that it will be traded
between $47-$53 range.
BAC still have more things to clean up. The mess is just too big.
Its previous CEO made big mistakes that already caused $50B on BAC book
value. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 3 I feel long term C will performance better than BAC simply because C has
much more international business. US is mature market and will have smaller/
less growth than undeveloped and developing countries.
BAC was just screwed up by its previous CEO. BAC was in very good shape if
it didn't acquire countywide and merrill lynch. That two acquisition already
wiped out BAC over $50B.
Relatively, JPM took advantage from the 2008 crisis. It didn't so hurry to
acquire the failed banks/companies, so it g... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 4 The trouble some in European may not necessary be bad to all banks.
Some of the bad things could be turned to big opportunities.
It just depends how these banks play the money game.
Just looking back JPM and BAC. They were completely different.
JPM gets a lot of benefit from the US house price collapse in 2008.
It got good deal to acquire some banks at bargain price. While BAC made
wrong acquisition and wrong price. BAC has paid about $50B for all
wrong acquisition. |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 5 1个班20人。
如果是20个男生都觉得不好看，那一定是丑女。
如果全班15个男生喜欢的，美女的概率非常大。
60%和71%差别不大，5B的80%和50B的60%也不是一个概念。 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 9 苹果的outlook一贯是被忽略的。50B够多了 |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 10 bad sign to manage cash... |
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c*****t
发帖数: 10738 | 12 why not. if the price is considered too low, buy back always make sense. |
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m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 13 i am thinking about the same thing.
as a tech company, huge buyback can only mean one thing. don't know how to
utilize cash. so start burning it.
no new product. big problem.
maybe it does become HP or RIM without Steve. |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 14 Again. Not good! Lol
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8 |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 15 HP is actually better. Printer business is more stable than cell phone. |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 16 对的，这就是苹果借钱的目的。
也正是因为苹果现在手头缺钱，所以50b宣布之后并没有把股价推高很多，
因为MM都知道苹果现在手里现金不多。如果苹果现在手里有20b, 那现在股价
就是450以上了。
这回要call put全部死光了。
dividend. |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 17 血洗苹果没成功。被50b buy back给破坏了。
同时，cook把苹果前途也破坏了。 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 18 IPTV will be the next hot area. If Apple doesn't want to buy NFLX, it could
acquire its competitor, such as Hulu.
When most of people watch IPTV, it will be the platform to make money from
commercial.
Another areas is the wireless service provider. See ATT and VZ all made big
money. Apple could buy T-Mobile with $50B to get into this business.
The mobile device market is saturated. Use the money get into different
market. That's how Google is doing. It is getting into network service
provider bu... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 19 2013-04-23 AAPL盘后发布季报，同时宣布将实行50B buy back, 但稍后又透露了将发
行债券。 盘后股价先涨后跌。
-----------------
按照经典的 M&M 理论, 任何stock dividend, buy back, stock split 都不应该对股
价有什么影响
但实际上，最新的 behavior finance 理论支持stock dividend, buy back, stock
split 等对股价会有影响。
AAPL 的buy back 是对股价有支撑作用的， 这也是为什么消息刚发布股价就涨
但后续消息说明AAPL将借钱来buy back, 借钱后公司的leverage 将会提高，风险也将
比没借钱时要增大， required return 就需要提高， 所以股价就又会相应降低。 这
其实又回到了 M&M 理论的作用范围。
明天看到底哪个理论作用最大， 呵呵 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 20 今天都出了2个了。
MPC都赚了一波了。
往下走也是有可能的，毕竟现在大盘不好说，5月又逼近。
我看现在风险有点大，不如弄几个50B以上的传统oil company，反正便宜，慢慢等。
或者直接cash，等金融dip。 |
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m********u
发帖数: 105 | 23 大本明天快出来再加50B吧，Sell on the news! |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 25 TSLA可以对照的两个
Porsche. 这个阶段最象。Porsche年产十万辆多一些，均价大约8万左右，车型也不多
，价位和Model S/X一个量级，净市值在10-12B左右（总市值25B上下，但Porsche股票
持有大众大量股份，另外输了官司有大量Liability，算下来10B多点）。Porsche的例
子一方面说明高价豪车销量还是有可以做得很大的，不能因为Model S/X价位高就说卖
不了多少，另一方面现在TSLA市值和Porsche相当，而今后两三年销量肯定到不了10万
，股价已有很大的预期，包括了GEN3的前景。基本上这个位置是比较标准的市场认可的
成长型股票估值
BMW.市值50B量级，年销量百万以上。TSLA要做到这个级别就是不得了的成就了。总得
年产十万二十万辆才看得到。这显然必须要GEN3的成功再加上全球性的产能扩张。另一
方面也说明GEN3不需要价格真降到30k。做到40-50k左右市场就足够大了。主要还是看
消费者对电动车驾驶习惯的接受程度 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 26 不知道用了多少。按市值$400B算，这相当于12.5%。二季度营收和净利润大概没啥起色
，希望EPS会好点。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8 |
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c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 28 no way a travel booking company worth that much.
i am not shorting it, just FA. |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 29 看看它的earning 吧。每股一年赚$40, 跟goog每股赚得一样多。
明年每股盈利就超过goog了， pcln $47 vs goog $43。而且这个市场pcln一家独大，
优势比goog都大。
我不在pumping pcln. 我声明我没有pcln position, 因为我恐高。
但是做空pcln的人，千万不要因为近期big run就去做空，而要好好做做功课，
看清楚这个公司fa + ta，然后再决定是否做空。
牛市做空本来就是反趋势，再加上这个股票的基本面非常好。做空需谨慎。 |
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D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 30 goog and pcln outstanding shares are totally different.
so no comparision only on EPS.
I bet it down after ER... |
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c*******o
发帖数: 5387 | 31 我都好几年，不用pcln了，周围的朋友，用得也不多。。。
真不知道，pcln怎么挣这么？ |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 32 你不用别人用啊。我总是用expedia, 但是我知道我不代表anyone else. |
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D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 33
I just used couple of times last year to bid hotel at half price.
found they have lots of hiden charges.. so give it up |
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m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 34 我出去旅游几乎很少在priceline 上订票的。 用它主要查查 当地价格的大致概念
我经常Travel, 最好的网站是official website. hardly use any travel agency
website |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 36 大部分人民的数学很不好，所以他们看不到hidden charge使得最后的价格不合算了。
而公司们挣的就是这些人的钱。 |
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o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 37 priceline may be a little cheaper than expedia, but a lot uncertainty. not
worth it. |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 38 totally different.
nflx盈利最高的时候只有 $4/股/年，
而crox是多少我不知道，但是也没有多少。
pcln是有真金实银的盈利做依靠的。 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 39 最大的利润在hotel.
expedia擅长的是air ticket,利润低， 而hotel份额很小，
priceline主要赚钱在hotel booking. 在hotel市场占了大部分的份额。 |
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b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 40 pcln我用得很多，加上费用觉得还是划算，当然你要坚持自己的bid。 |
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c***s
发帖数: 1139 | 42 can sell Aug 9 @1000's call for 2.9 :)
I don't think it can jump 70 a day :) |
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m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 44 PCLN Orbiz (OWW) Expedia 三家都是竞争对手吗？ |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 45 oww的业绩浮动特别大，很不稳定，平均增长率也不高。
今天涨35%， 我的看法是因为这是超级大牛市。 |
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c****y
发帖数: 3592 | 47 $70连10%都不到很容易就到了。你这是操卖白粉的心 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 50 er里的suprise多了。tsla都疯了那么多了，还涨了15%。
You never know what comes out from MM's box. |
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