s*****w
发帖数: 2065 | 1 这我说不好，我很保守的。。。risk averse |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 2 如果这次炒作的理由是cost pinch, 高端肯定是比低端比较能够pass on costs
不过踏入夏天，如果risk aversion将会提高的预测是对的，高端最终不能幸免。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 3 暂时应该会相对好些。如果这次大盘在踏入夏天由于QE2的结束变得比较risk averse的
话，这些最终还是受大盘调整的影响的 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 4 很不错的idea呀
不过，我可能没理解详细，这个correlation好像没有包含causal-effect
relationship.也就是说XLP和SPY的负性关系，没有解释到底是哪个领先哪个是吧？
所以可能是大盘下了， 大家risk aversion增加了，所以逃向defensive such as
consumer staples, XLP.
理解错误的话，请见谅。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 5 我想这个“cost pressure"的炒作概念将会围绕retailers一两个季（3-6个月），ARO
这种低档teenager公司大概在这几个月再怎么弹也不会弹得变牛股。大气候在。
不过我的想法是随着QE2的结束，和这几个星期市场对一些经济数据的反应，我想接下
来3到六个月炒作大盘的基调应该是"slow growth", "risk aversion returns", 那ARO
这种股会因为低档而有点support.如果棉花价人工价能下去些（这个据我看，应该要等
上好最少几个月，它很可能牛起来）
总体来说，我觉得现在average down ARO太早了。 压死了钱没必要。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 6 我不是说这段。你说的这段其实就是banks usually benefit from upward yield curve
的普通经济理论。 但是这个结果是建立在upward yield curve是由于经济正常或向上
的基础上的。
而这作者阐述的貌似他是觉得QE2结束会导致upward yield curve.
银行在危机过后，联储救市，一直都享受着你说的低短利率，高长利率，短期利率才不到1%，十年到三十年利率都是3-4+%. 这个spread,已经足够给银行很大的动机借钱了。要借出钱的，早就借出钱了。不借的不是因为spread不够利润，而是怕借了收不回。在经济还没确定健康之前，变得非常risk averse.
如果长期利率上涨是因为QE2结束，那是因为credit supply/money supply，那这个
upward yield curve不是因为经济向上成长，而是因为长期债卷的需求不济/或长期借
贷来源短缺造成的。 简单来说就是QE2结束，银行更不肯借钱。那就不会有他说的什么银行愿意增加借贷，刺激经济和就业市场一说。
他这种长篇大论，找几个常见经济理论套现象的写法是很容易... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 7 发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: GAP 崩盘了？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 20 11:27:47 2011, 美东)
如果这次炒作的理由是cost pinch, 高端肯定是比低端比较能够pass on costs
不过踏入夏天，如果risk aversion将会提高的预测是对的，高端最终不能幸免。 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 8 或者叫 Market sentiment,hehe
其实是普涨，普跌，还是板块轮动，应该是看得出来的，
还有就是其他市场，比如风险性比较大的货币是否遭到抛售等，
就是直接或间接的反映Risk aversion到什么程度。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 10 lulu 是强庄。不能解释的。不过risk aversion一增加，它撑不了那么高。
coh, tif, sks,fosl,都是luxury, 暂时论不到他们。要等街上真正报道零售太差了，
金融要裁员了blah blah blah就下来了
deck, crox, 最近有TBL 被buyout的消息。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 11 熊case:
1. 通膨
2. corporate high yield开始上升
3. QE2要结束。QE3很渺茫
4. europe sovereign debt crisis
5. 中国紧缩/中国房产泡沫
6. 美国就业和房市继续低靡
7. 五月份money flow out of stocks 是那么多个月来第一次。
8. dividend paying, consumer staples, healthcare, 这些股持续高位，可能代表risk aversion增加了。
牛 case:
1. 美国经济在复苏。
2. 银行有巨多reserves.一旦释放就是大牛市
3. 公司earnings继续进步
4.ER season要到了。目前没有太多downgrade和downward revision,看来analysts对ER还是乐观的。
. |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 12 什么reserve？法拍屋？
risk aversion增加了。 |
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w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 13 我觉得这些都是看牛的理由啊，怎么就成了看熊的理由呢？
risk aversion增加了。 |
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d******u
发帖数: 663 | 14 这么好的帖子。
risk aversion增加了。 |
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w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | 15 可乐是大牛
发帖有含金量
顶一个
risk aversion增加了。 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 17 Bear case:
#1 seems on hold or perhaps even reversed.
#6 may be true, but at the same time, builders seem to have stablized.
risk aversion增加了。 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 18 扯蛋
完少的话说： 你们都脱肛了
宁做太平犬，不当乱世民
是百姓的自然选择
操股叫法: risk averse |
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f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 19 小散的劣势是亏钱时转身太慢，赚钱时转身太快，整条risk-averseness曲线不对称 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 20 Coal today is largely a story about electricity use… And the world consumes
staggering amounts of power. Electricity is a fundamental fact of modern
life. It powers virtually everything we do – from heating the stoves that
cook our dinner and lighting up the TVs we watch, to powering the massive
factories that build cars and refine natural resources.
And as countries like China and India (aka "Chindia") modernize their
economies, the volume of electricity they devour is mind-boggling.
In the U.S... 阅读全帖 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 21 There is nothing wrong with the fundamental of gold. The latest big
correction is just caused by recently volatility of equity market, because
more people now think gold is a safe heaven. In the past month, gold has
gone up for more than 15%. Anything goes up so fast will eventually have
correction. It is better to have a correction now to let it settle down to
1600, than to have a collapse from 3000 to 1600.
Anyways, the implication is that people are temporarily turning to risk
aversion toward... 阅读全帖 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 22 People are turning to risk aversion. As you can see, there is a big
correction in gold/silver, oil/agriculture is not much better, the trading
volume of stock market has decreased also. There are more uncertainties
about the assets market. If you look at the chart of US dollar index, it
swings within a very narrow window for more than 3 months. It has to either
go up or go down. When investors fear risks in stocks and commodities, they
prefer to have cash, which will cause US dollar to rebound. |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 23 The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term
economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this
symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the
subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United
States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth,
might n... 阅读全帖 |
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w**********2
发帖数: 764 | 24 CNBC 真是太有才了。
金价银价近期看来要大涨了！
Marriage, Baby Boomers and the Case for Gold
Published: Saturday, 27 Aug 2011 | 10:46 AM ET
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News
With the Baby Boomer generation getting older and the market increasingly
volatile, there has been a lot of debate about how the aging population can
find an investment that will help pay for their retirement.
The San Francisco Fed released a study earlier this year that looks at the
life stages of Americans born between 1946 and 1964. It... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 25 loss aversion leads to risk seeking behavior |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 26 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wavelets (thinking loud) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:07:24 2011, 美东) 提到:
不明白，求解释。
比如捞底，
没反弹就进场就是左X么？
反弹后再找进场就是右X么？
右X比较容易保护和设立stop？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
alundut (alun) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:10:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
搬个椅子等着。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hobohobo (面壁) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:10:37 2011, 美东) 提到:
左侧：指在DJ下跌的末端，底部还没有完全探明时，分仓买入，右侧：DJ的均线系统修
复完成，走出多头排列后，再选择股票买入。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hobohobo (面壁) 于 (Fri Jun 10... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 27 (Reuters) - Major emerging economies are ready to provide financial help to
the euro zone via the International Monetary Fund but in return want
commitments to reform the IMF to be implemented, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov said on Monday.
The so-called BRICS nations "are ready to take part in joint efforts,
including the provision of credits, under those rules and channels that
exist in the International Monetary Fund," Lavrov told a news briefing in
Moscow.
Lavrov spoke before IMF Man... 阅读全帖 |
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d******4
发帖数: 3451 | 28
I am just too risk-averse |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 29 其实大部分forex的分析师还是倾向risk aversion的，不过他们也常错。我现在在小单
子做多AUD/USD，再冲到1.02我就close。 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 30 Why are bonds outperforming stocks over long term?
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Despite a reputation for being a slow-growing alternative to stocks for the
risk-averse, bonds just passed stocks' long-term performance over the past
30 years.
The fact bonds have topped stocks over such a long period shakes up
preconceived notions and further insults stock investors, who have endured
historic volatility as they got lower returns.
"No one thought the tortoise could catch up, and it just did," says Ken
... 阅读全帖 |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 31 发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: 善意提醒一下：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Feb 14 21:30:55 2012, 美东)
现在，就看明天下午2点了。
///
发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: 善意提醒一下：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Feb 11 12:33:57 2012, 美东)
看了一下，我们这里很多人看熊。但是，市场可能还很牛。如果秋月在的话，他一定会
提醒大家。希望他早日回来。
我上周也做空 RIMM 和 LCC，不过我昨天关了RIMM的空仓。由于他不在，我就胡说一下
：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
---- Barron's Cover：Enter the Bull ----
Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2012 Enter the Bull
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ART... 阅读全帖 |
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r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 32 UDOW may be better fit for risk averse investors. it's 2x DOW30 ETF. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 33 http://www.blackstone.com/the-firm/market-commentary/blog-detai
01/04/2012
The Surprises of 2012
All this began to change in October. Data for the U.S. economy began to
improve and the equity market moved back to where it had started the year.
European leaders, recognizing the urgent need for a solution to the
sovereign debt crisis, began to talk of a treaty change that would move the
continent towards a fiscal union. By year-end the 2011 Surprises looked
much better. A blogger, analyzing ea... 阅读全帖 |
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f********y
发帖数: 278 | 34 我提2点我在交易VIX时候的体会：
1.如果是Option,我一般怎么也会在交易日之前一个礼拜左右抛掉，尤其是已经盈利的
。VIX本身回调是需要几天时间的，任何option交易，越接近experation day,越象赌博
，而我们本是risk-averse的，所以一直拖到交易日，实在不合算。
2.我不认为存在VIX prediction模型，但是VIV Pricing模型是有的，只是准确性不高
，模型往往低估实际的VIX值。
OPTIONS |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 35 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖 |
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d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 36 这要分类讨论。
假设一个穷逼，手头就1万块，如果每年4%的收益，十年后还是1万多块，还是个穷逼，
有意思嘛？！
对于富人来说，绝对把risk放在第一位考虑，宁可少赚很多，但也不能大亏。
其实这就是为什么每个人的risk aversion都不一样的原因。 |
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a**i
发帖数: 608 | 37 市场急需 CRASH 一把来提高点人气，
否则很多机构和短线 trader 包括 day trader 都要死掉了。
Wall Street Equities Traders Face Worst Year Since 2006
By Michael J. Moore | Bloomberg
Wall Street banks' equities-trading units aren't getting much relief from
the strongest stock rally since 2009, as sinking volume and already thin
margins threaten to make their annual performance the worst in six years.
Third-quarter equities-trading revenue probably fell 14 percent from the
same period in 2011, the fifth straight drop of more than 8... 阅读全帖 |
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e**********e
发帖数: 999 | 38 for wealthy families and institional clients who are risk aversed....they
are all chasing 5-10 years even if the yield is less than 1% because they
are backed by US govt. FDIC only guranteed $250k per account. |
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g***c
发帖数: 11523 | 39 其实机器交易最赚钱
因为没有emotion在里面
该割就割，该取利就取利
最怕的就是lose aversion，到最后10次赚的还不够一次亏的 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 40 我是铁杆的lose aversion
俺的motto是：MM你有种把公司搞破产，不然别想甩我下船。 |
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P**B
发帖数: 1051 | 41 Tuesday, Dec 10
11:05 AM
Vipshop dives on report of fraud call from Muddy Waters partner
Reports a Muddy Waters partner is accusing Vipshop (VIPS -6.8%) of being
a fraud has led shares to dive over the last ten minutes of trading.
Given what happened to NQ Mobile following Muddy Waters' fraud
accusations, some investors are likely in a risk-averse mood. |
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g***c
发帖数: 11523 | 42 你这是loss aversion
一种扭曲的股民心里
调整方法就是严格按照你买的时候的预期操作
没到预期，就不要买卖 |
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w*j
发帖数: 336 | 43 的确有点loss aversion。我是有预期，可有时候也得顺势操作 |
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g***c
发帖数: 11523 | 44 lose aversion
股民之本性
改不了
除非不炒股 |
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m*********h
发帖数: 5449 | 45 Carl Richards has a post over at the New York Times' Bucks blog in which he
puzzles over the enduring appeal of hedge funds, despite the fact that they
have historically underperformed the S&P 500. Why, he asks, are people
paying exorbitant fees to hedge-fund managers who don't even make money for
them?
Richards takes a stab at the answer in a few ways. First, he implies that
there's an element of groupthink in Hedgistan, with investors all chasing
increasingly complex hedge-fund strategies beca... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 46 赞总结，比我啰里八嗦的强多了。学习了。
2008年那一轮的油下跌主要是demand driven，global macro危机。那时候shale
revolution 还没显端倪，USD走弱，OPEC主导全球价格和产能 愿意减产 set crude
price floor。
这一次虽说是global macro 放缓对需求有影响但是没到危机的程度，主要是supply的
问题，shale vs OPEC之间的争斗，加上USD走强 加上地缘政治。比以往的石油周期都
要复杂，也许downturn时间也要长一些恢复的过程也长一些。但是美国一些能源公司抗
压能力也比以前的周期强些，股票表现可能会有较大不同，还有industry 会有一波
consolidation 也是可以投资的方向。
一般能源股反弹的时候，SMID-cap 领涨，beta领涨，E&P是领涨的sub sector之一，最
后因为这一次油周期的复杂多变和油价反弹初期 大部分机构投资者可能还risk averse
, 那么就希望是high quality的股领涨。好多东西很容易跑赢crude。crude基本就是
trading，大部... 阅读全帖 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 47 Good luck in trying this. I am now too risk averse to getting involved in
those high risk-high expected return strategies. |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 48 Hedge funds see worst year since financial crisis
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Tuesday, 20 Oct 2015 | 10:25 AM ETCNBC.com
Hedge fund performance over the past three months hearkened back to the bad
old days of the financial crisis.
Poor performance weighed heavily on the industry, causing the biggest net
loss in capital since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to data released
Tuesday by HFR. The $95 billion decline pushed total industry assets
further from the vaunted $3 trillion mark.
As m... 阅读全帖 |
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t**s
发帖数: 4026 | 49 其实uvxy挺好的，ta，fa没入门的人乱分析的还不一定比直接猜大小成功率高呢，对于
risk loving的人来说，uvxy简直太爽了,vegas都不用去了。对于risk averse和risk
neutral的人来说显然不合适。 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 50 Sentiment has changed. People are very risk-averse now. |
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