h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 1 关键在于你怎么定义泡沫.
芝加哥大学两个NBER的研究员最近写了一篇paper:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1397607
结论是房产泡沫引发大家多贷了$1.45 trillion的钱. 可是,大部分钱没有被用来哄抬
股市,所以从这个意义上,之前股市的PE还是很合理. 但是,另一个角度说,大部分钱也没
有被存起来或者去哄抬房价,相反给大家都很happy地花掉了. 所以从这个角度说,E被膨
胀了. 不过,美国08年国民生产总值14.4 trillion. 美国的velocity of M1 money大概
是4(注:图为Log):
所以,大概E膨胀了百分之几十左右吧. 2006 S&P500 Earning是$87.72. 我觉得打个折,
算$60-$70比较合理. 然后,现在国债3.5%,加上1.5%的equity premium, 5%的equity
return对应的是S&P 1200-1400点. 所以我觉得反弹到1200-1400点以下都不算过分. 当
然,国债是被不合理的压下来的. 所以S&P 500 |
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f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 4 但是指数股里面太多金融公司了啊，一时半会也涨不了太多啊 |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 8 Rosenberg的算法显然有问题. 也许股票的风险同Baa Bond差不多. 但是,公司债券每年
被tax,股票只有卖的时候被以长期利率tax. 所以Baa现在大概7%pre-tax,我觉得相应的
股票5-6%因为税收的优越性就不比Baa差了. 然后按PE16-20,你再算算,高估在哪里了. |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 另外历史上除了大萧条,1974年等少数时期以外,Baa bond yield从来就没跟Earning
yield接近过. 总不能Rosenberg说该一样就一样啊? |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 12 If you can't even give me a worthwhile argument for how I am wrong with
details, I will put all your posts on
ignore. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 跟 1907 年比我觉得是不合适的。1907 年银行系统没有什么包袱，当时造成问题的
主要是矿业和钢铁业的股票作为信用社的 collateral 在股市出现大规模浮动的时
候牵动银行系统的危机。虽然和现在房贷危机有一点点相似之处，但是股票和房地
产在 liquidity 上是无法相比的。1907 年的危机以 J.P.Margon 并购 Tennessee
Coal, Iron and Railroad Company 结束，现在显然不可能这么简单了。
BTW, 从 The Great Depression (Lionel Robbins) 上摘抄一小段话。
"... The moment the boom broke in 1929, the Central Banks of the worlds,
acting obviously in concert, set to work to creat a condition of easy
money, quite out of relation to the general conditions of the money
market. |
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A**********g
发帖数: 143 | 14 dutchwonderland, pa
wildwood, nj
altantic city, nj
State Fair Meadowlands, nj
PA:
Erie — home to Pennsylvania's slice of Lake Erie, great for boating and
beaches
Hershey — Birthplace of Hershey's chocolate
Lancaster — a relatively large city right at the heart of Amish country;
the birthplace of the battery-powered watch, and a good shopping destination
for Amish goods
Philadelphia — "The City of Brotherly Love," with lots of history and
cheesesteaks
Pittsburgh — "The Steel City," a scenic, mult... 阅读全帖 |
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h********r
发帖数: 668 | 15 【 以下文字转载自 pennystock 俱乐部 】
发信人: fangxuanling (老房), 信区: pennystock
标 题: Re: CEU
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 2 11:58:32 2010, 美东)
CEU is good today. :)
China Education Rallies On Word Of Cash-Balance Confirmation
2 minutes ago - Dow Jones News
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
CEU 3.37 11.22%
As of 11:57 AM ET 12/2/10
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
China Education Alliance Inc. (CEU) disclosed Thursday that the company's
auditor confirmed bank balances at most of the education-resource and
services company's ... 阅读全帖 |
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p********6
发帖数: 994 | 16 link :
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/07/10/19-major-sources-warning-abo
July 10th, 2012
Michael Snyder:
Global leaders have tried just about everything that they can think of, but
the coming global financial catastrophe continues to march steadily toward
us. We have seen “stimulus packages”, quantitative easing, bond buying,
interest rate cuts, emergency economic summits, bailout packages for banks,
bailout packages for entire nations, “Operation Twist”, unprecedented
government intervention in ... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 17 but i will hold my shares till the earth gotta aged and heaven gotta barren. |
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H**********1
发帖数: 3056 | 18 you english is much better than mine
barren. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 19 Very negative barren's article on the latest issue. Caused huge drop. |
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z******a
发帖数: 582 | 20 看看这个印度哥们写的：
http://ns.trackitt.com/member/jacobke/2
Topic: Will CIR pass by end of this year
Dubai was a barren desert , when Indians took over the business and jobs
there, they made that land a heaven. If Indians leave Dubai, it will go back
to its original shape. Indians wherever they go, they work hard, pay the
taxes support the other people.
If you go to Costco you could see they sell Indian Samoosa, Indian Naan etc.
Why, all business people want to attract Indians.... Go to any Government
o... 阅读全帖 |
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p***y
发帖数: 18037 | 21 September 10, 2010, 6:07 pm
Look Out for the Diaoyu Islands
By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/look-out-for-the-diaoyu-islands/#more-6399
Tensions have erupted over some barren rocks in the Pacific that you may
never have heard of, but stay tuned – this is a boundary dispute that could
get ugly and some day have far-reaching consequences for China, Japan,
Taiwan and the United States.
The islands in question are called the Senkaku chain by Japan, the Diaoyu
islands b |
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C*****1
发帖数: 746 | 22 9/21: “每周一山”#4: Hiking Baldface Mountain
Here is the description from REI:
South and North Baldface Mountains
Arguably the best loop trip in New England, the rugged, spectacular
Baldface Circle Trip traverses a 4-mile exposed ridge and two barren
mountain summits with elevations of 3,570 and 3,610 feet. Views from the
ridge are continuous and include Mount Washington, Carter Range, Wild River
Valley, and peaks of Evans Notch. Expect substantial steep ledge and boulder
scrambling, particularly o... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****1
发帖数: 746 | 23 9/21: “每周一山”#4: Hiking Baldface Mountain
Here is the description from REI:
South and North Baldface Mountains
Arguably the best loop trip in New England, the rugged, spectacular
Baldface Circle Trip traverses a 4-mile exposed ridge and two barren
mountain summits with elevations of 3,570 and 3,610 feet. Views from the
ridge are continuous and include Mount Washington, Carter Range, Wild River
Valley, and peaks of Evans Notch. Expect substantial steep ledge and boulder
scrambling, particularly o... 阅读全帖 |
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B*N
发帖数: 164 | 24 9/21: Hiking Baldface Mountain
Here is the description from REI:
South and North Baldface Mountains
Arguably the best loop trip in New England, the rugged, spectacular
Baldface Circle Trip traverses a 4-mile exposed ridge and two barren
mountain summits with elevations of 3,570 and 3,610 feet. Views from the
ridge are continuous and include Mount Washington, Carter Range, Wild River
Valley, and peaks of Evans Notch. Expect substantial steep ledge and boulder
scrambling, particularly on the east ... 阅读全帖 |
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j**********9
发帖数: 5431 | 25 My land is barren for 8g. So move your "Modor" eyes to the others. |
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w***t
发帖数: 8175 | 26 SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. (AP) — Human remains found in the Southern
California desert are believed to be a missing San Diego-area couple and
their two young sons, and their deaths appear to be homicides, authorities
said Friday.
San Bernardino County Sheriff McMahon confirmed that 40-year-old Joseph
McStay and his 43-year-old wife, Summer, were found in shallow graves near
Victorville, about 60 miles northeast of Los Angeles. The couple and their
children disappeared more than three years ago.
Aut... 阅读全帖 |
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T*****u
发帖数: 7103 | 27 Books:
Science and Art:
*正版tvbi版权上海滩，vcd，广东飞仕影音出品
*A history of western art, by Michael Levey
*Meditations for the humanist, by A.C. Grayling
*The geography of thought, --- how asians and westerns think differently and
why. by Richard Nisbett
Life Style:
*Hotdish to die for, by Pat Dennis
*Vegetable garden for dummies
Better Life Style:
*Into the wild, by Jon Krakauer
*Snow man, John Hornby in the barren lands, by Malcolm Waldron
*Lance Armstrong, by himself with Sally Jenkins
*Total heart rate ... 阅读全帖 |
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q********1
发帖数: 1480 | 28 我也懒得翻译了， 需要涨知识的读读吧。
http://time.com/3976344/cecil-lion-zimbabwe-walter-palmer/
The world's anger at hunter Walter Palmer is understandable but misplaced
Earlier this month, a 55-year-old American dentist named Walter Palmer went
on a safari holiday in western Zimbabwe, where, over a 40-hour period, he
maimed, cautiously tracked, and finally killed a lion. Palmer, a veteran big
-game hunter, insists that he had secured the necessary hunting permits,
unaware at the time that his target was the mos... 阅读全帖 |
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G****a
发帖数: 10208 | 29 Canadian writer Alice Munro, "master of the contemporary short story," has
been awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature for her body of work. Here is a
list of books by the 82-year-old author, who recently said she was retiring
from writing:
Best-of collections:
Selected Stories (1996)
Vintage Munro (2004)
Carried Away: A Selection of Stories (2006)
Stand-alone books:
Dance of the Happy Shades (1968)
Lives of Girls and Women (1971)
Something I've Been Meaning to Tell You (1974)
The Beggar Maid (1... 阅读全帖 |
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d**4
发帖数: 217 | 31 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2015309,00.html
The Forbidden City's Last Secrets Head to the U.S.
By Austin Ramzy / Beijing Saturday, Sep. 04, 2010
"Now we can go into the wild," says Nancy Berliner as we step into a garden
overgrown with waist-high weeds in the center of Beijing. This is no
abandoned lot, but a largely untouched corner of the Chinese capital's famed
Forbidden City. Nearby, hordes of tourists plod across the vast imperial
plazas. But in the garden, the only swarms... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 7397 | 32 Alas!
There is no oasis
In the grand barren
That is nova jersey
gerade between
the town of prince
And that isle of geld |
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m*y
发帖数: 1778 | 33 NJ 很出名的 pine barrens 就是这个地方 |
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K*****y
发帖数: 501 | 36 19. 蔓越莓收成季
新州南部，是全美第三大蔓越莓產地，每年進入十月之後，各地的採收活動陸續展開；
鮮紅欲滴的蔓越苺鋪滿水面的奇特景象，也成了最熱門的觀光焦點。十月的第三個週末
，是切斯沃斯（Chatsworth）的蔓越莓節，除了介紹南澤西沿海松林泥炭地區（Pine
Barrens）的文化傳統，也慶祝今年的豐收，現場邀集手工藝品師傅及畫家展示精湛技
藝，還設置許多美食攤位，從各種蔓越莓製成的食品到在地小吃，兼具娛樂性與教育性
；活動免費入場，適合全家共遊。
網址：cranfest.org
20. 燈塔巡禮
每年秋天的某個週末，新州都會舉辦一場走遍燈塔挑戰賽（Lighthouse Challenge）。
參加的民眾必須在兩天內造訪全州，從最北的沙鉤（Sandy Hook）到最南的五月岬（
Cape May），還有位於保羅斯伯勒（Paulsboro）的提尼康島（Tinicum Island）上共
十一座知名燈塔，兩間燈塔博物館還有兩個救援站。任務可說是相當艱鉅，在享受海岸
風光的同時，應主辦單位要求，參賽者還必須收集每個景點的紀念品，商品販售的所得
則將作為修繕維護燈塔之用。
活動網址：l... 阅读全帖 |
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n***s
发帖数: 897 | 37 NJ Devils ..........
在新州某些废弃的地下隧道中，在荒烟蔓草的古楼角落里，在人迹罕至的山林野
道上，藏匿着不少世代转述的鬼魅传说，和难以解释的灵异现象。让我们在万圣节
穿着奇装异服，嚷着“不给糖就捣蛋”的孩子来敲门以前，先捡述其中几个较为知
名的故事：
双忧神秘点
位于海洋郡（Ocean）柏克莱镇（Berkeley）和莱西镇（Lacey）之间的双忧州
立公园（Double Trouble State Park）内，有一块面积不小的圆形空地，空地内的
林木都被整整齐齐自根部向外推出，非但树干躺下的角度完全相同，木色也是相同
的灰色。
这些树不是被人割倒的，因为没有砍伐后的树根；不是被陨石摧毁的，因为没
有陨石的踪影，地上也没有落石造成的坑洞；不是飓风吹的，因为只有大圆圈内的
树木被彻底清除；更不是飞机（或任何飞行物）失事或人为机器的清除，因为现场
没有任何残骸碎片及大小车辆的轨径。
更玄的是，只要接近这个圆形空地，你的电子表、手机、数码相机……任何需
要电池启动的科技产品，都会像影片突然停格一样，莫明其妙的失灵了。
也许... 阅读全帖 |
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A*******e
发帖数: 9 | 38 普林斯顿中文剧社隆重推出2011年秋季大戏－《27》欢迎大家前来观看！
Princeton Chinese Theatre proudly presents its 2011 fall production...
Written and Directed by Meicen Sun '12
编剧/导演：孙梅岑 '12
Official trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2G5tF_E7GU
Location: The Frist Campus Center Film and Performance
Theatre
Princeton University
(ENGLISH SUBTITLES provided on the screen!)
Dates: Nov. 17th, 18th @ 8pm
... 阅读全帖 |
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o**********n
发帖数: 367 | 39 A NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/look-out-for-the-diaoyu-islands/
Nicholas D. Kristof - A New York Times Blog
September 10, 2010, 6:07 pm
Look Out for the Diaoyu Islands
By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
Tensions have erupted over some barren rocks in the Pacific that you may
never have heard of, but stay tuned – this is a boundary dispute that could
get ugly and some day have far-reaching consequences for China, Japan,
Taiwan and the United States.
The islands in question |
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s*******a
发帖数: 375 | 40 82以西?说反了吧。你在说MTV吧？或者在说Stanford??PA 82以西好的地很少。barren
park 那片不怎么样，小学才7分。只有斯坦福边上东南那块较贵，不过地小。贵的都在
82以东，比如 谷歌CFO 30米的房子。 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 41 Sodomy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sodomy (/ˈsɒdəmi/) is any non-penile/vaginal copulation-like
act, such as oral or anal sex, or sex between a person and an animal.[1] The
word is derived from the story of Sodom and Gomorrah in chapters 18 and 19
of the Book of Genesis in the Bible.[1] So-called "sodomy laws" in many
countries criminalized not only these behaviors, but other disfavored sexual
activities as well, but in the Western world, many of these laws have been
ove... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****d
发帖数: 164 | 42 You have made your point very clear and I agree 100%: the numbers your cited
are too low for you to feel rich. Anybody on W2 will not feel enough money
made, no matter how much, let alone less than 500k a year.
But you clearly set the bar too high for average people as a "poverty line"
in Texas. This is so inflammatory on this board.
Texas is a great place. For those who diminish Texas to a barren, backward,
underdeveloped world, only because they do not know to have a good life here.
You can... 阅读全帖 |
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h**l
发帖数: 4883 | 43 Provo也太远了吧. 另一个城市了
山里的那种湖估计搁我老家只能叫水汪荡.
在西湖边散步过么,或者其他的城市有waterfront的.比如旧金山的fisherman's wharf.
这里的至少是市区内给我只有barren的感觉,树很少,水也很少. |
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B******1
发帖数: 9094 | 44 Another theory would be that those barren female crab would like to
sacrifice their lives first to give those who are productive a better chance
to survivie and deliver the eggs . . . |
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O******e
发帖数: 2834 | 46 ”Most of the adults leave the bays and enter the Gulf for spawning during
the winter“
据说这家伙是趴在沙地上，半藏在沙子里，等bait游过来； 我们钓的地方，基本都是
沙子底。
不过，看官网的介绍：
”Over barren bottoms, leaded plastic worms (worm jigs) are often very
effective. In heavily vegetated areas, shallow-running spoons are best. “
也就是说，在草底，应该也能钓； 但我还没经历过。 |
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G***G
发帖数: 16778 | 47 Yes, you are right. it is a very beautiful story in Chinese. but I made it
worse
in English. I felt my language was very barren and pale when I wrote it in
English. I couldn't express what I wanted to express as well in English as
in Chinese.
Thank you for giving you feedback. I really appreciate it. It would be
better to leave the story in Newyork board rather than here because most of
people
who will read and criticize it there don't know me. |
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r*********l
发帖数: 120 | 48 现在发现版上的牛人真不少。。。
http://top100.golfweek.com/GolfweeksBest/article.asp?ID=1609
New Jersey
1. Atlantic City CC, Northfield (c)
2. Ballyowen, Hardyston (m)
3. Twisted Dune, Egg Harbor Township (m)
4. Sand Barrens, Swainton (m)
5. Pine Hill GC, Pine Hill (m)
6. Scotland Run, Monroe Township (m)
7. Architects Golf Club, Lopatcong (m)
8. Wild Turkey GC at Crystal Springs Resort, Hardyston (m)
9. Neshanic Valley, Neshanic Station (m)
10. Hominy Hill, Colts Neck (m)
11. Royce Brook (East), Somerville (m) |
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f******u
发帖数: 767 | 49 刚看电视上报抓了个在脸书上威胁别人的二货。说是罪名成立最高可判十年。
这舞刀弄枪的人该处处谨缜才是，都知道在现实生活中持械恐吓别人是大忌，轻则吃牢饭，重则丢姓名。
不能因为在这网上穿了马甲就可以忘乎所以了不是？
这不现在武器，动机，威胁证据该有的都齐了，还缺啥？
如果真的有人起真格的，警察又正好闲的蛋痛，别以为马甲能管用！
Glasgow Daily Times, Glasgow, KY
December 5, 2008
Police Briefs
Man arrested for terroristic threatening
A local man has been arrested for terroristic threatening and menacing after
he allegedly made threats to a local resident in statements on the Internet.
Glasgow Police Department Public Information Officer Capt. Kent Keen said
dete... 阅读全帖 |
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