f********n
发帖数: 1560 | 1 old shit system - OR breakout and pull back. |
|
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 2 Did you? This is exactly Chairman's favorite breakout pattern.
You may sell tomorrow morning before 10AM if you are in for a short term
play. |
|
a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 3 到过1328.x了。
intraday可以试试，最近intraday都是range，false breakout很多。
不过1330是什么resistence吗？ |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 4 想在这个市场赚钱，就要先了解价钱波动（或者说交易）的原理
我给一点hint,大家可以去看一看图表，特别是那种突破的图形，
好好思考一下为什么会产生那种大幅的volatile breakout（breakdown)？
为什么偏偏那个时候就会竖起来大棒子？
临界点？
谁再买？谁再卖？为什么会产生短期的供需imbalance?
大资金如何造市？
大棒子对市场参与者的心理暗示？
完了，突然间发现这个话题很大，可以无限的展开。。。
我先睡啦
改天再谈 |
|
k******i
发帖数: 686 | 5 图形倒是挺好看。breakout.
er怎么样就不知道了。
不过NFLX的ER是可以做双向OPTION赌大波的。 |
|
C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 6 Missed this massive breakout. |
|
g********4
发帖数: 4959 | 7 can not say breakout yet now. |
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 8
I did not got the bottom though. Got some after TLT breakout the range. |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 9 You are chasing high. The talk of breakout of bonds does not make sense.
Bonds give you 5% or at most 10% annual return. It is usually a SELL once it
breaks out.
In other words, you chase high on a defensive play. It is no longer a defensive play. |
|
a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 10 if you like breakout.
i used that for scalping sometime. |
|
w********1
发帖数: 3492 | 11 这个方法来做breakout我在板上几年前卖过包子。呵呵。不过自己不再用了。 |
|
C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 12
it
rebound
USO formed a double top, plus MACD triple push pattern. Kind of risky to
bet on its breakout. |
|
C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 13 This pattern is notorious for a false breakdown or breakout. |
|
C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 14
想看看ANF/LTD这两只牛会有什么表现。。。
埋伏几个put?
在往上breakout就没天理了。。 |
|
|
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 17 Need many people like you to buy the breakout. LOL! |
|
S******n
发帖数: 1009 | 18 I didn't use machine learning algorithms, which train
a model based on training data, and test the model on
future test data. My system just simply look for
tradable patterns based on domain
knowledge(resistance, breakout, etc).
I don't think there is overfitting of parameters,
because it's not easy to find a parameter working for
such a long time with various market conditions.
The winning rate seems too good to be true, maybe
there are some errors of the system.
works. Just a
train and test t... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
y***o
发帖数: 503 | 20 It may breakout any time |
|
|
I********n
发帖数: 1468 | 22 你这rally 怎么越confirm越低啊？ 我们都被mm五月的breakout迷惑乐。。。 |
|
|
f**********8
发帖数: 326 | 24 China just signed the currency exchange agreement with the 12th country-
Kazakhstan. Not much time left for US dollar index stay low. UUP would be a
great choice for a mid-term investment. 21.00 would be very hard to drop
below, while 22.00 would be easy to breakout. |
|
|
i*u
发帖数: 299 | 26 需要看明天，因为总结这类patten需要pattern出现后第二天，通常第二天的direction
of the breakout就是向那边reverse。但问题在于，reversal pattern都是
出现在一个trend的最端点，而这个pattern出现在一个小trend的端点，难下结论就在
此！ |
|
|
|
l***n
发帖数: 812 | 29 Economy is in the mid cycle and thanks to the historical high GC/LA crack
spread and WTI/Brent price differential. I reiterate my bullish view on
Western Refining.
This ER is critical for the next breakout for the following reasons.
1, 2/3 of the annual EPS comes from Q2.
2, free cash flow number reveals possible dividends.
I am still long WNR. |
|
X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 30 All in！严肃地说两句，这一周搞淫子的必须密切注意那个debt limit agreement，其
他什么野鸡ta，什么resistance level，breakout，support都不要用了。任何不利
agreement的消息都会刺激金淫上涨，反之任何有利agreement的消息都会造成金淫下跌。 |
|
i*u
发帖数: 299 | 31 两周前我有考虑过这个问题，但现在我可以确定这是一个failure HnS。
原因来自volume，一个downward HnS的right shoulder需要low volume来support，意
思是大家在最后关头还在盯着市场，不敢进退。知道neckline breakouts之后，volume
会特涨，说明investers确定了这个下跌的形势，大家都在panic。
但现在这个right shoulder的volume比head还要多，说明卖家已经short过了，同时买
家对市场optimistic而进行低处吸纳过了。这时候该做的action都做完了，很难会有更
大的selling pressure往下压，除非有更差的市场信息出现。 |
|
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 33 I will just read from left to right without adding more lines to make
another commented graph.
I used mostly EMA20, green one, and occationally EMA50, red one.
1. price breaks down EMA20, downtrend
2. price breaks both EMA20 and EMA50, confirmed,
3. waited for a rebounce, and EMA20 croos EMA50 (I am not familiar with
terminology like gold crossing, dead crossing), might to short
4. price breaks both again, short confirmed.
5. at around time 35, it's another short opportunity during downtrend
whe... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 35 It looks like it's going to turn up soon.
Actually all agriculture ETFs have the same sign. e.g., DBA, GRU. |
|
|
f*******h
发帖数: 721 | 37 People are realizing commodities are real assets. Besides, you can stop
driving but you can't stop eating. even in recession, there's a food
shortage. |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 38 The good time to buy agriculture is between now and when SPY=1000 next month
. |
|
c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 39 last month it drop below 10 |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 40 yes, unfortunately I didn't buy more. |
|
z****g
发帖数: 4616 | 41 转贴一篇２００６年的老文章
OEX Open Interest Points to Rally
Published May 8th, 2006 in Market Internals
The S&P 100 options are views as a smart money indicator and right now their
ratio of open calls to open puts is less than one. Which means that the
smart money holds more calls than puts. This is worthy of note because it is
quite rare.
Since 1995, it has proved to be a high probability play, returning a monthly
average of almost 4%. I think a sustained upside breakout here would take
almost everybody by... 阅读全帖 |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 42 RJA, DBA and GRU are the next GLD/SLV in very near future. They have just
had technical breakout. |
|
|
B*********h
发帖数: 800 | 44 过去两天是个bear trap， short了两天没什么动静，周五向上突破了我的stop，然后
过了1855就当momentum breakout trade来反手做多了，瞬间出水。短期内就坚持做多
了吧，不过回调始终会来的，我现在的策略就是弄个100点的trailing stop跟着
momentum,没准真能先飚到2500才回调。 |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 45 最近都technically breakout了，买农业是长线操作，想要半年一年大赚一笔就算了吧
。我跟板上大部分玩短线的不同。 |
|
|
|
l****t
发帖数: 235 | 48 我说你31的买点，
这个股本身不是趋势股，赌breakout的odds不高 |
|
B*********h
发帖数: 800 | 49 现在的操作方向应该很明了吧.金子和银子的近期走势完全一样,清晰的descending
triangle,GC short target 1740, SI short target => 38. 或者当breakout来做，
上下夹心stop。我比较等不及干这个，已经空了两天了，等突破了再加。 |
|
h*******e
发帖数: 46 | 50 是不是每季度末机构都要卖出winners？
这类股估值都很高啊。
short了LULU. 原因是：
加拿大的市场接近饱和，增长率将下降
汇率因素会造出margin 下降？
但是怕他们像AMZN一样breakout了~~
大牛们怎么看呢？ |
|
