j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 1 don't mix insurance and investment
http://whitecoatinvestor.com/dont-mix-insurance-and-investing/
A wise physician will have a solid insurance plan and a solid investing plan
. But she shouldn’t mix the two. Remember the combination TV/VCRs?
Seemed like a great idea initially. But then you ended up with the worst of
both worlds, and when one of them broke, the other became useless. It’s
the same with investing. Instead of providing some kind of synergy by
mixing the two, you end up with th... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 2 I do not track much commodities, but if that is the case, it adds another
layer of worries. USD is surging yet commodities, US equity and bond market
are all rallying. What a world! |
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a***r
发帖数: 146 | 3 Bullish outlook on European and emerging market stocks, as well as
commodities.
By Jurrien Timmer, co-manager of Fidelity Global Strategies Fund, Fidelity
Viewpoints – 12/19/2012
It has been a year of confusion, of tail risks anticipated and averted,
fiscal cliffs, and quantitative easing (QE). It has been a year of a housing
recovery in the United States and a growth recession in China. It has been
a year when the eurozone stared into the abyss. It has been a year of an
against-all-odds rally i... 阅读全帖 |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 4 看fiscal cliff的闹剧，美国是只会印钞来balance budget了。强迫大家投资高风险，
不然抗得过通货膨胀？ 那2013最好的投资策略是什么？
买房？ 好多地区都已经没有多少好的库存了，选择有限。
存金银?
买commodity? 有什么好的ETF么？ 话说2012年,commodity走势很弱啊。
加大股票的比例，用option?
懂行的说说。 |
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p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 5 Fed要是停止QE,市场上的liquidity 减少了， 没有easing money了，所有equities和
commodities 都得跌， 只有美元涨。。除非经济真有根本好转， commodities 和
earning 好的股票才会涨。 但偶觉得现在根本就是productivity 太高， 供远远大于
求， 做出来的东西， 买得的起的人， 早买了； 买不起的， 还是不买， 除非降价，
但降价， margin低了， 花街还是不稀饭， 还是砸。。。 总之就是一个跌， 至少开
头是这样。。 稳定一些后， 还是会回到基本面， 看earning， balance sheet， P/E
ratio 啥滴
金银要涨， 可能得依赖欧洲的坏消息了。 要是哪天希腊被踢出欧元区， 或意大利的
Berlusconi 又做回总理， 金银还会有希望吧。 所以买实物金子的童鞋， 如果已经买
了， 就当个纪念品， 收藏玩一玩， 别计较sales tax了。 别多买， 放家里， 只会
给你找麻烦。 即使在GC 1900+ 时， 偶的那几个老金， 也卖不出价， 收购商压价压
得厉害， 一大堆借口， 搞得你无法接... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********o
发帖数: 5993 | 6 黄金属于commodity.
Commodity是投资产品中的一大类。买黄金当然算投资。 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 7 You can consider the gold ETF - GLD.
Its current price is $121, one year ago, its price was $155, 2 years ago,
its price was $148, is this what makes you feel 现在黄金便宜?
If you extend the time further back, 5 years ago, its price was about $95,
10 years ago, its price was less than $50 ...
I don't have the crystal ball to tell if Gold is cheap or expensive right
now, but it's OK to allocate a small % of your asset to commodities.
Also, if your primary concern is inflation, there are two types of in... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******x
发帖数: 49 | 8 刚接触401K, 想请教下，应该选哪种好，比例多少为好~~~十分感谢
(DBC) PowerShares DB Commodity Index
(DJP) iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Indx
(IDU) iShares Dow Jones US Utilities
(BIV) Vanguard Intrmdiate-Term Bnd
(JNK) SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond
(EFA) MSCI EAFE Index Fund
(IVV) iShares Core S&P 500 Index
(IWF) iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index
(IWD) Russell 1000 Value Index
(AGG) iShares Core Total US Bond Market
(BWX) SPDR Lehman Intl Treasury Bond
(GVI) iShares Barclay Interm Gvt/Crdt bd
(MINT) PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity ... 阅读全帖 |
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j****z
发帖数: 1402 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: jmzjmz (me), 信区: Stock
标 题: 看懂Schedule K-1和1099B 避免重复报税
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Apr 9 11:55:09 2017, 美东)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UelaEaxp5A
一直以来被 Schedule K-1 困惑，Schedule K-1 和 1099B到底是个什么关系，
Partnership ETF到底应该怎么报才能避免重复报gain or loss，我想我终于在广泛
research后明白了，我这个视频是花了很多时间一步步认真制作的。也许我能帮到一个
同样困惑的人，那么也算劳有所值。如果你买过partnership EFT的，如果你收到了
Schedule K-1,那么看看这个视频是有用的。
我自己在投资commodities是失败的，好在我只是很少量的尝试，虽然亏了也没伤到多
少，2016年我金盘洗手从commodities撤了，转而注意别的版块的战场，应该说不想再
买这些会issue Schedule... 阅读全帖 |
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s********r
发帖数: 403 | 10 没见特别牛鼻的 hardware requirement ，
普通的 HPC 实验室配置，一般一个节点都有20个1T-1.5T 的disk，外加Kepler GPU，
8-core 的 CPU + 24G/32G RAM 是基本要求。
在去年的超算年会上，这种都是正儿八经的commodity hardware+parallel processing
non-commodity hardware, 哪是这种样子的，特殊硬件架构，比这稀奇的多得去了。 |
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g****l
发帖数: 62 | 11 You may contact us for the status of your pending export license application
and commodity classification request by telephoning our System for Tracking
Export License Applications (STELA) at 202-482-2752. STELA is an automated
voice response system that will provide you with up-to-the-minute status on
any license application or commodity classification pending with us. A touch
tone phone is required to use this service. You will need the Application
Control Number (ACN) of your license applicat... 阅读全帖 |
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d**e
发帖数: 6098 | 12 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
CAIWU (Cai) 于 (Mon Jul 16 01:46:48 2012, 美东) 提到:
看了c++complete reference 那本书
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
mxf (mxf) 于 (Mon Jul 16 01:59:30 2012, 美东) 提到:
继续写code
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
CAIWU (Cai) 于 (Mon Jul 16 03:07:17 2012, 美东) 提到:
有些理论光写小程序学不来
想找点进阶的书看看
练习code就那些leetcode上的
基本只用到c的东西
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
bokertov (早上好) 于 (Mon Jul 16 05:39:35 2012, 美东) 提到:
effective C++讲得比较深入
☆────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 13 贴几个参考的课程描述
统计和ml
With exponential increases in the amount of data becoming available in
fields such as finance and biology, and on the web, there is an ever-greater
need for methods to detect interesting patterns in that data, and classify
novel data points based on curated data sets. Statistical machine learning
and evolutionary computation provide the means to perform this analysis
automatically, and in doing so to enhance understanding of general processes
or to predict future events.
Topics ... 阅读全帖 |
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c***z
发帖数: 6348 | 14 From http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2011/03/
I have been thinking about this but Mike Church nailed it:
In the mid-1920s, improvements in agricultural technology, especially in the
Midwestern United States, brought commodity prices to low levels and
triggered a spell of rural poverty. It might have seemed like a problem “
out there” to a Manhattanite in 1928, but two years later the poverty had
spread far enough to tank the stock market and seep into the cities. By 1933
, even many wealthy ... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********5
发帖数: 7881 | 15 其实去年这时候， 我找工作的时候， 就是顶峰了
我在这里说了快一年了， 现在再去转马工，除非你喜欢code， 你是傻逼
那个CMU ME转CS的。。 再过二三年， 很大possibility就会后悔去转
tech 行业， 现在hire 基本我觉得不张， 基本是供和求， 我觉得差不多。 过几年
， even for companies like google估计也得裁人。 alphabet裁人， 我觉得是肯定
的。那个nest， 说不定就要关掉. 更加别说其他tech company了
至少从股票上来说， 我二三月份在stock版说过， forget about FANG stocks this
year. commodity， bank are where it‘s at... sure, the commodity stocks
have gone up already this year, but money rotation i think is just starting.
.. |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 16 实际上高通胀已经开始了.
现在是通胀+低利率, 所以黄金等commodities才大涨.
如果是正常情况, 通胀=利率+2%左右, 投资commodities是亏的. |
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D*B
发帖数: 553 | 17 Outside-Broom sweep front and rear porch, remove nest and replace missing
soffit wood with same kind near the front door and paint (make this match
exactly as the other soffit), remove all trash near rear deck and in rear
yard, install new outside vent for gas fireplace, Inside-Install new small
mini blind on side light of front door, install new smoke detector batteries
t/o, clean all non-carpeted floors t/o, vac all carpets t/o, replace light
bulbs t/o as needed, steam clean carpets t/o includ... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 18 我好久不上网，因此不清楚以前大家说过什么，如果你曾经提到过类似的话，那么我我
完全支持你。
1. A house = commodity.
2. Commodity market is determined by the force of Supply/Demand.
3. 当然，Supply/Demand 又被很多因素牵制such as households' 收入, mortgage
rate, etc. |
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D*B
发帖数: 553 | 19 Outside-Broom sweep front and rear porch, remove nest and replace missing
soffit wood with same kind near the front door and paint (make this match
exactly as the other soffit), remove all trash near rear deck and in rear
yard, install new outside vent for gas fireplace, Inside-Install new small
mini blind on side light of front door, install new smoke detector batteries
t/o, clean all non-carpeted floors t/o, vac all carpets t/o, replace light
bulbs t/o as needed, steam clean carpets t/o includ... 阅读全帖 |
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d****g
发帖数: 7460 | 20 Commodity:
看别人使过。觉得特高格儿。。但不是搞这个行当的，不完全懂。
说亚裔的技能都是Commodity。就是供给无极限。要多少有多少，不需要提价钱。。相
反，要是稀缺资源，你就得提价才能雇的到人，越炒价越高。。这个说法合理吗？说实
在的，要不是各国人民支援美帝，美国的高科人才肯定“稀缺”呀。。。我老感觉这种
思路是对知识分子的不重视。
technocracy:
就是指按能力提拔，谁技术能力强谁当头，内行人管理内行人。。这个不是挺好吗？有
什么危害呢？直觉是被专学管理，不懂技术的人管很憋气。谁能阐述一下为啥必须？ |
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t**********a
发帖数: 166 | 21 where is the offer position, and your current job? Most of international
banks' commodities FO is in Singapore. They might expand to China commodity
exchange, but might be hard to trade due to capital control. |
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p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 22 刘军洛的话 is often bullcrap.
however, there is one thing common for those ppl like 刘军洛:
because they yell short everyday for 10 yrs, finally, they will be correct
once.
it really looks like he'll be right this time.
i understand a simple fact:
there's far more CASH than investment products in the world.
these surplus cash is called "hot money", or "international capital".
it chase properties! it chased US housing and subprime before,
now it has chased China housing.
the capital finally needs to tak... 阅读全帖 |
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e******e
发帖数: 10121 | 23 这个不敢苟同，还能写这么多，呵呵。
＂货源是第一要素＂正是我贸易教程里面的提出核心理论之一，无须多讲，之所以提及
是为了给新手的，希望大家先能确定一个大致方向。
LZ发信问我，我一并回了：任何一个做久了的SALES都有客货资源，都清楚价格和市场
，但是并不意味这些都能统统归到你名下，那是属于人家公司的，你一个新公司谁给你
货源？凡是在这方面没有感悟的多是把我说的货源简单理解为COMMODITY本身了，而没
有考虑价格因素。COMMODITY到处都是，而决定订单的价格只有一个。个人新公司创业
做销售完全在于你手里的价格即货源，这个需要不断慢慢积累。能否自己出来单干LZ自
己应该最清楚最能根据自己情况作出明确判断。 |
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i**q
发帖数: 411 | 24 God point about 例如地产经纪. And why it is commission only?
There are several issues underlines or between the lines on my previous post
, 地产经纪 is a good example, an unique industry because:
1. They sell a "commodity that everyone needs - houses or homes.
2. The value of each deal is relatively much bigger than other common "
commodities", many times it's the single biggest purchase for many
individual in their whole life。
3. More importantly, in USA there is a systmatic way to guarantee the agents
... 阅读全帖 |
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z****g
发帖数: 4616 | 25 每天看那么多人在预测明天股市走势，可是大盘指数的走势真的很重要吗？我想现在就
连我这种后知后觉的人都已经知道了，其实从去年大盘进入熊市以来，ENERGY和
COMMODITY的股票却进入了一个大牛市。比如今天股市大跌，可是有很大一批ENERGY和
COMMODITY的股票照样收绿，从我本人的帐户来看，今天指数跌，可我的帐户却在涨，
要知道，我的帐户８０％都是LONG的。所以我认为，当前的主要问题不是预测准大盘指
数涨跌就能赚钱这么简单，而是要联系股市熊市和商品能源牛市一起来考虑。
我水平很有限，非常希望有牛人能够分析一下短期以及下半年商品能源股票的走势，这
个牛市已经让人有点恐高了。 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 26 for those warriors who have questions about commodities. so many threads on the same question, I will answer in one post
no panic. no panic.
even if the Fed raises interest rate in June, fundamentally, many
commodities won't change as much through this year unless the Fed is willing
to nullify everything it has done so far to help the economy to get back on
its feet |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 27 commodity完蛋了，不仅是石油，所有的commodity都要完蛋。
有兴趣的自己搜索一下Martin Pring的一些文章。 |
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i****m
发帖数: 122 | 28 这类预测贴估计能够多吸引眼球，呵呵。
九月初先继续反弹，股市和美元一起反弹，然后从中旬开始都歇菜重新开始整理探底。
十月股市基于对于明年的市场盈利展望而逐渐转暖，commodity休息一下，但不会大跌
，美元走平盘。
十一月和十二月两个月形成一个有力的上涨趋势，市场预计2009年上半年走出信用危机
的期望得意放大，加上大选的影响，共和党财团相信会集中力量放手一搏来个end of
year rally。中国和亚洲这个时候因该也会继续强劲的需求。为了明年的mutual fund
销量，我们也许看到整年的全球主要市场还不至于太糟糕。
至于明年，房价如果停止下跌，那么双位数的SP指数百分比年收益可期。
题外话，现在银行卖fund都是拿过去的performance chart作为标准。银行总是拿一些
最好卖的东西来骗人，市场好上mutual fund赚取5%的高额佣金，市场不好上fix
income product然后把大众的钱用来股市捞底。
目前最好的长期投资几个板块，一个是中国H股的ADR，一个是commodity，一个是船运
，都是被暂时抛弃的，但前景很好地板块，呵呵。 |
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s*********k
发帖数: 18 | 29 过完了一个长周末，青蛙也和大家一起从湿漉漉的池塘洞里爬了出来，好不容易躲过了
股神他娃飓风，终于可以慢慢的喘口气。 一大清早，闹钟响了，已经快9：30am, 池塘
报告青蛙short的顺利的下跌，没有比这个更美妙的开局了。 青蛙不说，大家也大概能
够知道short的是在什么板块吧？ 不知道吗？ 今天开局各个新闻的头版头条是什么？
油，油油。 为什么飓风导致了14个炼油厂关闭居然油下跌了6块？ 本来青蛙也没有搞
明白，后来综合了十面埋伏里面各个方向的风，才理出了以下几点原因，
1） 美元强势走强。 这一点青蛙在之前的文章里面多次提到过，作为全球金融中心的
美国，美元的强势符合大家的利益。 接下来的呱呱一并省略。
2） 可以是什么呢？ 有没有同学们发现日元也很强劲，而只有英镑最差，这又是为什
么呢？作为全球的第二大经济体，日本的主体投资在他们缺少的能源还有commodity里
，要是你熟悉一点日本的环境，可能就会曾经看到过，这些主题投资又是用日元来
hedge的。 日元的走强会不会是日本的市场操作者减持commodity而买入日元引起的呢
？ 青蛙也不知道，让大家去观察与思考。
上一次，青 |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 30 满版都是bso和灌汤水。 市场这么有趣的变化没人提。
昨天是一猪市， 最主要的变化当属美元。 年内第2次触及78，http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22621306219&a=168840088) 下周很可能下穿这条极其重要的阻力线。 进一步认证美元下跌的长期趋势。 相应的变化在股市上应该看到的是：
市场继续上涨， SPX touch 1000.
Commodities play catch up.整个commodity最近的涨幅比大盘要弱， 基本是是依赖美
元下跌的因素， 金价有可能在下一两周内突破$1000的大线。 油价昨天已经确立了升
势（星期四我在一个贴里有提到）。 前一轮70-60的回调已经完成。 下面的目标是90.
看好太阳能（昨天尾盘买入YGE)， 贵金属（called GOLD),
Sold ATVI to raise some fund, gave it 3 days, unable to cross 50ma, took a
small 3% gain and move on. |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 31 commodity always more volatile. banks have made commodity market a big
casino. |
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s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 32 Natural gas is one of the most volatile commodity. So the decay of UNG will
be very large comparing to other commodity ETFs |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 33
I could be wrong but I think it takes a while for the average commodity
to fully take off b/c many of them are industrial commodities, and we
have 2nd leg down looming. Right now it's mostly a gold and silver show. |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 34 有很多的讨论呀，长期肯定是inflation, 但1-2年之内，到底是inflation还是
deflation, 还是有很多争论的。Fed虽然印了
很多钱，但这些钱大多都没有进入流通。从日本的经验来看，QE结束之后所带来的是
deflation；现在commodities疯长主
要是由于中国因素，但国内限制经济国热的力度很大，比起人民币升值的预期，调控所
带来的负面影响更大。
commodities这种泡沫吹起来容易，破起来更快。 |
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I**N
发帖数: 102 | 35 中国又要崩溃了
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aMbfBKW.uKn4
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow
and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity
prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.
The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while
industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are
acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last
week is “ |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 36 中国楼市泡沫破,主要是影响commodity,特别是铁矿.石油倒未必有什么影响.
现在的股指commodity成分不是很大.道里面也就CAT可能比较惨. |
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l*******n
发帖数: 206 | 37 not sure since
stock down + commodity up => ? commodity stock
in fact, stock down => most probably xom down |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 38 All right, part 2, Technical Analysis.
I threw out a little hint at the end of part 1 by saying TA doesn't
work, and it got some defensive words back already. It will be
interesting to see what happens after I finish this part, because
if you accept what I am going to say, you probably will have to start
over in your trading adventure (which I think you should).
It is worth a few words to talk about what TA is trying to solve
first. Market price, no matter what the underlying product is, all
com... 阅读全帖 |
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K*****n
发帖数: 1406 | 39 就从目前看, commodity的价格还是要上去,随着美元的printing
LDK应该会从高涨的commodity价格里面受益吧?
后市帮主怎么看? |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 40 not comparable!
the key of Drys's performance is on it's drilling business.
three new building drill ships are to be
contracted. they are going to be delivered in 3,6,9 in 2011. Given the
inevitable QE2 and commodity market soar, it has great chance to contract at
decent rate.
I am a little concerned about QE2 though, given the recent commodity market
slowdown. |
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b*p
发帖数: 242 | 41 Hook and Cook-son 这两个姓取得真是有水平啊。不要脸的金融骗子印度金子卖不动，
来煽风点火骗中国人买了哈。印度人还真是拜金，就喜欢囤金子做首饰嫁妆，标榜自己
身份。在美国也不例外。
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/life/religion/new/7280301.html
Indians not celebrating price of gold during Diwali
Jewelers say they're selling fewer items for annual festival
By KATE SHELLNUTT
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Nov. 5, 2010, 5:44AM
Record-high gold prices have hurt business for local Indian jewelers during
Diwali, the popular Hindu festival of lights and the start of a new fiscal
year.
For the... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 42 real estate is not commodity. The cost of holding commodity is just the
inventory cost while real estate has much more such as tax, maintainence. |
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x****7
发帖数: 895 | 43 我一知半解，说白了我是不懂ES和commodity futures 的区别。也是听说做commodity
futures 的人用spread to reduce risk.
处。不需要等一两个月那么久。 |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 45 Thank you for sharing your view and analysis. Nice charts and a very good
piece of reading. I like the way you analyze silver over gold in the 1st
chart as well as you use sectors diverge in S&P500 to reaffirm one of your
conclusions: people are not running to gold and silver for safety.
Few things I disagree (not necessarily your conclusions but more the way you
approach them):
1, "people are not running to gold and silver for safety." does not give us
another of your implicit conclusion -- a n... 阅读全帖 |
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l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 46 巴菲特说， neither gold nor commodity produces value, buying gold or
commodity is betting someone will pay higher price later.
我承认我当初买BP的原因之一是投机油价会上涨。 听了巴菲特一句话， 胜读10年书，
所以把我所有的BP全部清仓，要钱不要货, double my stake in HIG up to
7500share。
Paulson能持有10%的HIG， 我为什么不能持有0.00168%的HIG？？？！！！ |
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c***y
发帖数: 286 | 47 I think the commodities price is the key. if the price continues south, the
margin compression concern will finally go away, which will be a great news
for the market. but let's see if it's just a one-day event.
What do you think about the commodities? I am looking to short them, but can
't make up my mind yet. |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 48 Oil Surges as UN Approves Libya No-Fly Zone; Credit Suisse Raises Forecast
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-17/crude-oil-climbs-for-a
Oil surged in New York after the United Nations Security Council voted to
ground Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s air force as continuing unrest in
the region renewed concerns the turmoil may spread and disrupt supply.
Futures jumped as much as 2.2 percent after the UN voted to establish a no-
fly zone over Libya and demanded a cease-fire with rebels. Oil clim... 阅读全帖 |
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c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 49 ONE reasonable coments from blogger:
Foolish to sell here, there is no silver left above ground, what is to be
mined is spoken for too, well into the future.
PSLV is a better indicator of price/value of silver than your COMEX price
you think silver's value should be based on. You are looking at NAV thinking
that the Futures price is indicative fair value, but it is not paper market
is totaly disconected from reality of demand and supply.
Paper market Silver is underpricing the real value of silv... 阅读全帖 |
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x******g
发帖数: 33885 | 50 The overwhelming conclusion is that of stocks remaining in a MULTI-YEAR BULL
MARKET that is being driven higher by a number of fundamental factors such
as corporate earnings OR Fed MONEY PRINTING (POMO). It does not matter which
is prevalent at a particular point in time as the market SPIRALS HIGHER in
reaction to waves of INFLATIONARY buying pressure, something that the dark
pools of capital recognised right at the birth of the Stocks Stealth Bull
Market in March 2009 (15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bul... 阅读全帖 |
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