c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 1 完全同意对 401k 的判断。，现在随着baby boomer的退休临近，资金渐流出股市。如
有恐慌，将
成雪崩。
望《如何做方向？》实用且简单，有如一腿踢。
因知你英语严谨，求 direction play or directional play 哪个好？
能，那就是刚
刚买在了顶点。
很小很小。年
景好的时候啊，401K账户刚刚开始成长。换句话说，老鼠会刚刚成立不久，还有得玩呢。
，有多少是
来自市场收益不得而知。但是有一点是明显的，现在的老鼠会，活动有些年头了。401K
基金里面的
钱，多少人都望着口水直咽呢。
面。任
何反弹很有可能又是一个cyclical bull market。
，横。方向判
断的准确与否，对开局的影响是有的，如果方向判断准确，开局有利，下面就好做。如
果方向判断错
了呢？ |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 2 Adam Lass
1: The Corner
This is the moment when price has hit the top or bottom boundary of a
trading channel. On our OEX chart, you can see this signal cropping up three
times since the long-term falling trend commenced in 2006 (yes 2006!). Each
has presaged the sort of cyclic changes that are often confused with
genuine decadal bull or bear markets.
You simply can't help but see that the third iteration of this signal hit at
the top line of the trend in late April of this year.
2: The Cross
Th |
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C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 3 in april, people are also super optimistic about US economy. But a few bad
news can completely break the fragile confidence in investors. Many
analysts are still projecting euro going down to 1.20 by the end of this
year. So, the sentiment can turn around very rapidly.
We are not in a secular bull, we are in a cyclical bear.
assured
dollar |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 4 A Presidential Reason to Buy Stocks By JEFF SOMMER
Published by NY TIMES on October 9, 2010
ECONOMIC growth is precarious, unemployment is painfully high, debt levels
are staggering and the stock market isn’t all that cheap.
That’s the view of Jeremy Grantham, the chief investment strategist at GMO,
the Boston investment firm, who believes that the stock market is bound to
endure some very lean years. But in the near term, there is a good chance
that the market will rally, he said.
Why? “We are... 阅读全帖 |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 5
理工男都喜欢程序， backtest什么的， you have to add into cyclical stage of
the broad market, the relative strength of Chip sector, and INTC's own
running stage. I'm quite confident this 3 white candles will constitute a
breakout. |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 6 大牛， 我也是喜欢用cash income 来计算
但AVX 是属于high cyclical 的,如果目前是peak,
那算出来的可能是严重biased |
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M*********r
发帖数: 50 | 7 From the recent 10Q, BAC's near future is rather grim. Two years after
purchasing Countrywide Financials and Merrill-Lynch and the global turmoil,
BAC's "home loan" portion shrank by 30% and its "Wealth Management" shrank
by 15%.
These assets are further reduced by the recent foreclosure class lawsuits, $
47 billion in alleged defectively underwritten mortgage bonds, etc. The
recent $10.6B write down as "Goodwill impairment" is only the tip of an
iceberg.
BAC's traditional banking profits are si... 阅读全帖 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 8 F 属于CYCLICAL 的股票，现在2，3年持有应该没问题， 10年可说不好 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 9 Rpc Inc NYSE:RES
Industry: the energy equipment & service
Category: Cyclical
Why to invest:
1: strong revenue growth : for the most recent quarter, revenue leaped by
128% compared with the same period last year, well above the industry average.
2: clean balance sheet:
debt to equity ratio 0.22
quick ratio 2.26
3: strong stock performance
4: a vote of confidence on the recovery of the world economy
Investment horizon:
one to three years, but do review every quarter.
Possible risks:
the econo... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 10
yes, breadth: (daily high - daily low)/price
high daily breadth, high day trading opportunity
high growth potential->high beta
high leverage ->high beta
foreign market -> high beta
high cyclical -> high beta
.......
LVS |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 11 I guess depends on how you play the game.
I believe we are in a secular bull market so I long the market. I also
adjust my risk based on my perception.
However you seem to play in cyclical market. If you are good with timing,
you can also make money, especially in swing market.
that being said, some of your positions seem to be secular bullish play,
such as prgn. Actually a lit bit more bullish than I am.
You also sell/short winner and long loser, which assumes some kind of market
converging cr... 阅读全帖 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 12 LYNCH 是针对CYCLICAL的公司那么说的。 请不要误导大家。 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 13 其实所有的东西都是cyclical的，所谓天下大势，分久必合，合久必分。 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 14 发信人: stocksguru (guru), 信区: Investment
标 题: 给你的股票贴个标签---学习LYNCH 读书笔记 (1)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 29 11:27:59 2010, 美东)
我读过的教人如何投资股市的书籍里，对我影响最大的是 PETER LYNCH 的两本介绍他自己投资心得的书：ONE UP ON WALL STREET 和 BEAT THE STREET。 前者重点介绍是他自己在投资生涯里面总结出来的投资理念，后者则更多的介绍了一些具体的投资案例。
这里我和大家分享一下PETER LYNCH 在投资股市的时候， 如何给股票分类。这样可以帮助我们明了我们要投资的股票面临的风险究竟多大，以及我们应预期怎样的回报。
1：THE SLOW GROWERS： 这里面主要是一些成熟的高红利的大公司， 年增长略高于GNP的增长。通常的UTILITY 股票属于这个类别。购买这类股票的主要目的是降低整个投资组合的风险。在熊市的时候这类股票比较抗跌。这类股票是可以超长线持有的。像今年这样的年景这类股票大概有5%或者10%以内的CAPIT... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 15 AVX, VSH and KEM.
I have already done the FA for these stocks on the board before. That was
the main reason I bought these stocks. They are cheap if you look at their
cash flow..
All these stocks had stable performance recently, actually, KEM and VSH hit
another 52 weeks high last week while AVX hit 52 weeks high two weeks ago.
Their business is cyclical.
Recent run up in raw material price will have some impact to their margin.
Otherwise, short term, I think the trend should continue. I will ho... 阅读全帖 |
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t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 16 http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/10/bank-of-america-10-r
By Matt Phillips
Everett Digital
Getting Bearish? Bank of America global stock watcher Michael Hartnett is
out with a succinct note ticking off the reasons why it might make sense to
see a good ole fashioned stock market correction right about now.
Now strictly speaking, these are what we would call “facts.” Neither
Hartnett nor anybody else can say what the inflation numbers will look like
in the second quarter, for example. But th... 阅读全帖 |
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o*********l
发帖数: 1807 | 17 April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S.
home lender, cut 1,900 employees from its mortgage unit, or less
than 1 percent of the workforce, as fewer would-be borrowers
submit applications for loans.
Wells Fargo told U.S. employees of the cuts on March 23,
giving them 60 days notice, Jason Menke, a spokesman for the San
Francisco-based bank, said today. Most employees were in interim
roles processing mortgage applications, and a “handful” were
in servicing operations. Some e... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 18 如果你相信这只是整个bull market cycle的中端而不是尾端，
这么好几个cyclical+secular growth的sector里面最少也有上百个可以trade的股票了
。如果在这些里面都找不到candidate,在不那么obvious的sectors里面就可能会觉得更
找不到了。如果你觉得这一轮调整里面几个good value的candidate都找不到，那看来你可能觉得bulll market到头了。
关键是这些不obvious的sectors里面，个股的功课重要很多，跟踪的功夫也大很多。如
果是我的话，有容易做的，我还是选容易做的吧 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 19 The new FocusShares ETFs have only been trading for two sessions, but have
managed to attract attention for a number of different reasons already. The
unit of Scottrade debuted 15 U.S. equity ETFs yesterday, making a splash in
the ETF industry with rock bottom expense ratios that undercut many of the
competitors. The new ETFs will also be available commission free in
Scottrade accounts, helping to level the playing field with brokerages such
as TD Ameritrade and Fidelity that have already rolled... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 20 CRM可能还好。
RVBD，FFIV属于cyclical capital goods. 上下大波动不意外。 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 21 CICC Says Global Banks Too Bullish on China Stocks as Pimco Buys
April 14, 2011, 1:22 PM EDT
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- China’s biggest investment bank is turning “
cautious” on the country’s stocks, just as six of its overseas rivals and
the manager of the largest mutual fund say it’s time to buy.
China International Capital Corp. predicts slowing economic and earnings
growth will limit equity gains after the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
rose 6.2 percent this year, the best advance among majo... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 22 如果搞的theme是economic slowdown, 将是一个一个sector来倒，现在倒了的
cyclicals有financials, materials, energy, 最近零售也算是栽下了。
下一个可以摘的硬骨头是哪个呢？
restaurant看起来不错。其他呢？ |
|
w****k
发帖数: 6244 | 23 可乐美女，你对cyclical的东西似乎非常有研究
可以推荐一些有价值的读物么？
书，网站，报纸栏目，等都行 |
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 24 帮主关于cyclical股票的理论堪称一绝，秒杀peter lynch。哈哈哈哈 |
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w**b
发帖数: 108 | 25 what is the trick? any restriction on those free ETF trades?
$0 Commission ETFs
Looking for commission-free ETF trading? Get the freedom to invest on your
terms with confidence. Scottrade customers can access commission-free Focus
Morningstar ETFs, which boast expense ratios among the lowest in the
exchange-traded fund industry. With these funds, you can build a highly-
customized ETF portfolio with low management fees, smartly indexed to 11 key
business sectors, three investment styles and one ... 阅读全帖 |
|
w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 26 no bottom is confirmed on Friday。
拉力，需要各大ETF日线的上升确认和VIX的下降的确认。
今天的板块分化，有可能是对冲基金在long defense sector，continue to short
cyclical sector。
GDX可能是下周做空的好题材。 |
|
z*****x
发帖数: 2370 | 27 There remains a wholesale de-risk occurring across the board. Real money is
selling out of positions (this goes for cyclical stocks as well as the “
safer haven” groups as well) and shorts continue to grow more comfortable
laying out exposure (and shorts still aren’t very aggressive in pressing). |
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G*******s
发帖数: 10605 | 28 俺一般都在做多的同时稍微空一点弱势股，最近没敢空金融，空了点建筑商和CAT这种
cyclic，这几天把long的损失基本能cover住，主要还是自己手贱在12买了点YHOO,不然
还是赚的 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 29 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-keynesian-solutions-af
Submitted by Jim Quinn Of The Burning Platform
Keynesian Solutions - After Total Failure -Try, Try Again
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist
system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation,
governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of
the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but
they confiscate arbitrarily; and... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 30 谢谢虎神
long term turnaround play + cyclical, 风险很大 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 31 这几天，右眼跳得厉害。。。
看了 David Rosenberg 的解说，豁然醒悟了。Live or Die, 9/22 (FOMC会后一天）是
关键。祈祷！
The consensus view that the Fed is going to stop at 'Operation Twist' may be
in for a surprise. It may end up doing much, much more. And this may be one
of the reasons why the stock market is starting to rally (a classic 50%+
retracement, which always occur after the first 20% down-leg in a cyclical
bear market would imply a test of 1,250 on the S&P 500 at the very least).
Hedge funds do not want to be short ahead of... 阅读全帖 |
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R******n
发帖数: 687 | 32 You are wrong. The bubble we have now is bigger and more serious than 2000.
Tech bubble is just an inventory/cyclical issue, now we are having a credit
bubble that will take years to deleverage. |
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c*********t
发帖数: 2921 | 33 Basic Materials -3.71%
Capital Goods -3.65%
Conglomerates -3.18%
Cons. Cyclical -3.17%
Energy -3.75%
Financial -3.27%
Transportation -4.19%
|
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 34 CAMBRIDGE – The Greek government needs to escape from an otherwise
impossible situation. It has an unmanageable level of government debt (150%
of GDP, rising this year by ten percentage points), a collapsing economy (
with GDP down by more than 7% this year, pushing the unemployment rate up to
16%), a chronic balance-of-payments deficit (now at 8% of GDP), and
insolvent banks that are rapidly losing deposits.
The only way out is for Greece to default on its sovereign debt. When it
does, it must ... 阅读全帖 |
|
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t********2
发帖数: 638 | 36 http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/recession-is-a-done-
Quotes:
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but
on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading
Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and
Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading
Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-
looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did o... 阅读全帖 |
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G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 37 secular or cyclical bull market ? |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 38 Concern about an effective European bailout has decimated U.S. investor
sentiment, causing them to ignore an earnings season that shows stocks offer
a great value right now, some traders and strategists are starting to say.
Photo: Oliver P. Quilla for CNBC.com
The worst-case scenario right now is “waking up to news that European
policymakers have run out of time to develop a rescue plan for their
financial system,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist for
ConvergEx Group, in a note. “Sto... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 39 那太复杂了， 咱就图个简单直观。
像什么cyclical的， 只要不破产， 总能等到出头天。 |
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w******t
发帖数: 1929 | 40 ft - Yahoo finance 头条， 这段时间做反的肠子都青了
Federal Reserve easing has helped fire up one of the strongest stock
market
rebounds ever, and the promise of more is keeping it going.
The chart of the S&P 500's (INDEX: ^GSPC - News) more-than-100 percent
run-
from its March 2009 low of 666 to its current 1340-plus level-generally
depicts the most powerful comeback of the past seven cyclical stock market
recoveries, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC - News) Advisors analysts say.
Yet, unlike some of those other periods... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 41 I will give you more reasoning on glooming prospective of the US equity market.
1. The decoupling of US stock market and China. 中国股市至今没有有效突破。
2. The overhang of oil price. The oil price is $100 now! It is way too high
for a recovery to start and it truly hurts if the market turn around here,
for it will hit $150 if we truly recover. Then you shall ask, is $150 a
barrel really helping or hurting the economy?
3. The so-called recovery of US is mostly triggered by its competitively
devaluation poli... 阅读全帖 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 42 not really for cyclicals. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 43 financials and consumer cyclical just began imo |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 44 Stocks are cyclical goods; the longer you hold them, the worse they become.
Just my butt feeling. |
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j****9
发帖数: 2295 | 45 这个从yahoo上转发过来。
Dear Fellow Employee:
I am writing each of you to provide an update on the proactive initiatives
we are taking to help ensure Patriot remains strong during these
challenging times in our industry.
Across our business, operations are performing well. We are achieving
outstanding safety results, and we have taken decisive action to scale our
production to match market demand. Our operational excellence and the
flexibility of our modular met coal production portfolio are a distinct
c... 阅读全帖 |
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c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 46 Utilities are stable. They are not cyclical. They tend to under-perform in
bull market and over-perform in bear market.
When they are not doing well (like today), the market is doing well. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 47 I think I have made it pretty clear: a cyclical bull and a secular bear |
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J******s
发帖数: 913 | 48 你们有没有注意到。高Beta的Cyclical stocks跌了将近半年了，过去几天开始真正反
弹。也就是说它们比指数跌得早，涨得晚。从板块轮转来说，现在千万别买那些防御性
板块，和溢价的大盘股。它们是过去半年避险资金撑起来的，没有买入的价值。
我认为被打压的板块会继续走强反弹，对后市很乐观。当然不排除小回调。 |
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J******s
发帖数: 913 | 49 中概是Cyclical stocks的一部分。它们受经济周期影响很大。而这次的大跌明显是中
国增速放缓的表现，而欧债只是个次要因素。
我看好后市，最重要的是看好中国经济二季度（可能已经）见底。 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 50 唉，我没有故意遮遮掩掩就用Q2/2012的数据，首先这个是最近的数据，代表了最新的
状态，4个季度是有cyclic的，但因为大家基本都一样，所以用最新季度的数据也是合
理的。再说我也犯懒，懒的去总结全年数据，其实不影响我对bidu的基本论点。不过既
然被问到，那就比比，对大家都有帮助。看着有用的发我几个包子，把数据找来也是体
力活啊
在过去的1年内，bidu总revenue比4家之和少100M, 但很接近了。最近一个季度bidu收
入超过了4家之和。由于bidu的revenue的增速远远大于ntes/sina/sohu三家（ntes最好
，也只有20-30%)，所以在以后的几年内,即使bidu增速放缓，也肯定大于三家，而且基
数大，差距只能越来越大。qihu增速快，但基数太小，是bidu的零头的零头，其实算不
算根本不影响基本结论。
利润bidu更是绝对优势了，最近一年机会是4家的2倍，而且同样道理，由于增速快，差
距只能越来越大。qihu的全年利润和bidu也就是bidu 10天的利润。
很明显了，不算qihu,sina收入最少，而且利润也不稳定，现在股价相当一部分是weibo
的潜... 阅读全帖 |
|
