m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 1 今天股市的catalyst: Stanly Fisher 是 dovish or hawkish? Vice Fed chairman |
|
m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 2 今天 大盘 黄金 美元 bond 的走法是dovish 啊 |
|
m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 3 FOMC tone slightly dovish ? |
|
b*****r
发帖数: 2065 | 4 https://360.gs.com/research/portal/research/econcommentary/?action=viewpage&
st=1&d=16792280&isRouted=true
Goldman Sachs Research
Global Markets Daily: Market views muted ahead of the FOMC
Published 05:12 AM Wed Mar 19 2014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
•The FOMC is now meeting for the first time with Janet Yellen as Chair.
•Our US team expects the FOMC to deliver an accommodative message...
•…alongside a continued tapering o... 阅读全帖 |
|
h********r
发帖数: 928 | 5 The Fed is considering a range of tools to boost growth, William Dudley, the
president of the New York Fed Bank, said in a speech Monday, hinting at the
option of a third round of quantitative easing.
“The Fed seems to be pushing the global agenda towards continued dovishness
and accommodation and easing,” Hastings said. The Fed also is “pressuring
the global yield curve lower in order to force easing around the world,
which would of course prevent the U.S. dollar /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY +0.
... 阅读全帖 |
|
j********5
发帖数: 281 | 6
你说的是加息之后的事情，那就要讨论janet到底加不加，什么时候加。先说我的猜测
（个人观点）：很难加，要加也是9月之后的时期。9月1次12月1次，最多了。
yellen今天的讲话要看懂：
1.says rate rise could be made at any meeting after april --->hawkish
2.says fomc sees inflation quite low this year --->dovish.
非常标准的语言战略，act hawkish, not being hawkish. then dovish...then can
not rise rates. janet basically has to be dovish otherwise it will hurt her
alliance at ecb,boe,boj and boc.
那目的是啥，美元.make $ in control without hurting too many. |
|
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 8 well, 昨天跌了660，今天三大利好（中美谈判，12月新增就业，Powell's super
dovish talk）算是打了一针强心针
中美谈判，这个很难说结果怎样了，只能拭目以待
12月新增就业，this is simply bull! the number will be revised down, and if
it doesn't, it will evaporate before you realize it
Powell's super dovish talk, this is entirely predictable, Fed is not going
to raise rate again in 2019 and this has been priced in by the market
already. But what Powell did was reassure the market that, if needed, he
wouldn't hesitate to do anything - cut rate back to zero/QE, aka mo... 阅读全帖 |
|
H********i
发帖数: 699 | 9 Is Soros Right to Get Out of Gold?
Major players, including George Soros, are reportedly pulling back from gold
and silver has recorded yet another collapse.
The Federal Reserve remains dovish, the US macroeconomic picture looks shaky
, but gold has still fallen back, so should investors stick with precious
metals?
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday morning that George Soros'
eponymous fund has been easing itself out of the yellow metal and is also
getting out of silver (Exchange: XAG=... 阅读全帖 |
|
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 10 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-rally-on-chi
U.S. stocks: Futures rally on Chinese rate cuts, dovish Draghi
Published: Nov 21, 2014 6:11 a.m. ET
MADRID (MarketWatch) — A dovish European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi and a rate cut from China’s central bank triggered a rally for stock
futures on Friday, with the ground laid for another record-setting session
for Wall Street.
Already higher after comments from Draghi, futures doubled gains after China
’s Central Bank cut i... 阅读全帖 |
|
y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 11 叶大妈这工作也不好做。。。。。
Market participants warned that the Yellen must walk a fine line in her
testimony. Too dovish a posture and she could raise alarms about the economy
, while too hawkish a posture threatens to roil stocks, expecting punishing
rate increases amid a world-wide economic slowdown.
“Janet Yellen had to be dovish enough so as not to spook the market but
hawkish enough to signal that the economy is still growing and she achieved
that,” said Kelly Bogdanov, vice president and portfolio an... 阅读全帖 |
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 12 美国还摇摇在上。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
Japan gets called out
from The Big Picture by Peter Boockvar
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/japan-gets-called-out/
While the S&P credit downgrade of Japan shouldn’t be much of a surprise, it
does highlight what many countries in the developed world face, too much
debt and not enough growth. Japan’s new S&P rating is one notch below Fitch
and Moody’s and is now in line with China and Taiwan. Japanese 5 yr CDS is
rising 5 bps to 84, just a few bps from the highest sin... 阅读全帖 |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 13 http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/03/01/putin-smas
Battle for UkrainePutin Smashes Washington’s Cocoon
A Politico report calls it “a crisis that no one anticipated.” The Daily
Beast, reporting on Friday’s US intelligence assessment that “Vladimir
Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine,” quotes a Senate aide claiming
that “no one really saw this kind of thing coming.”
Op-eds from all over the legacy press this week helped explained why.
Through the rose tinted lenses of a media co... 阅读全帖 |
|
O**e
发帖数: 569 | 14 2014年09月29日 12:36
来源：中国日报网
16人参与 2评论
原标题：ISIS成员：正筹划在纽约发动猛烈袭击
中国日报网9月29日电（小唐） 据《纽约每日新闻》27日报道称，极端组织“伊斯兰国
”（ISIS）的一名成员宣称，该组织正筹划在纽约发动袭击，而其目标是未来让该组织
旗帜在白宫上空飘荡。
“如果情况允许的话，我们很快就会在纽约发动恐怖袭击。”这名自称法拉赫·希雷顿
的加拿大人通过视频对外界说，“很多兄弟正在那里进行活动。”他还断定美国的武装
分子势必发动一场猛烈的袭击。
他还说：“我还知道很多人——数以千计的人——目前生活在西部，准备好在你们的土
地上行动。”他们的终极目标是看到ISIS的旗帜飘扬在白宫上空。
伊拉克总理阿巴迪最近也提醒称恐怖分子要在纽约和巴黎的地铁发动袭击。为了安抚民
众的恐慌情绪，纽约市市长白思豪25日出现在纽约地铁，向市民保证地铁的安全性。此
外，警长和纽约州的州长还分别乘坐不同的地铁线，向公众证明地铁的安全性。白宫也
回应说，美方情报部门没有收到任何针对地铁的恐怖袭击情报，但表示会进一步研究伊
拉克方面的情报。
The great Ameri... 阅读全帖 |
|
x*****8
发帖数: 10683 | 15 I guess the dovish senior diplomat was murdered by the hawkish faction of
PLA.
The hawkish assassin probably used a laser beam to blind the car driver. |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 16 Global Stocks, Dollar Slide As Nervous Traders Eye US-China Trade Talks
It has been a confusing 24 hours, with US futures slumping after yesterday's
unexpectedly hawkish-yet-dovish FOMC, which first slammed the dollar, then
sent the USD surging, and sparking an equity selloff even as rates remained
relatively unchanged. Today's this confusion spilled over into international
markets, with both Asian and European shares retreating, as traders are on
edge ahead of the US-China trade talks taking pl... 阅读全帖 |
|
f******t
发帖数: 19544 | 17 马蒂斯以前被开因为太hawkish，现在被开因为太dovish，真不合时宜啊。 |
|
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 18
这就是新闻的力量。。。。 问题是， 为啥他们改口这么容易？
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-rebound-as-b
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose sharply on Monday, with the Dow
industrials soaring more than 260 points early in the trading driven by
dovish comments from China’s central-bank chief as well as continued flurry
of deal announcements. |
|
T***a
发帖数: 218 | 19 google了一下，是刘伯坚的孙子，再查了一下刘伯坚是谁，原来是解放前就牺牲了的革
命党人，这也说不上什么显赫出身。
市场也许消化了QE2，但离预期fed紧缩还差十万八千里呢。就算是预期，到年底也不可
能变那么多。 从Bernanke的一贯言行来看，是非常dovish的。
美元完全可能从此涨上去，不过是因为其他的货币都有自己各式各样的问题，大家在比
着贬值而已。 |
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 20 It is ridiculous to believe, even to think that interest rate of short term
treasury note will spike, when FED said that it will hold interest rate to 0
-0.25% range. What is happening right now is the dramatic increase of long
term rate in anticipating of tapering and eventual end of QE3. The yield
curve is widening as I am writing this. Curent FED's policy is that it will
not raise interest rate until unemployment rate decreases to 6.5%, and
targeting inflation rate of 2%. If Yellen is nominat... 阅读全帖 |
|
c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 21 Ben Bernanke在FOMC里面再出这招要争取大多数支持者很困难。现在大概只有三个（包
括他自己是比较dovish)的。
headline inflation已经不容忽视，尽管fed的人一直强调是transitory.不过这个说法
相信没多少个人很放心。
job market在improve.当然再恶化的话，很可能ben bernanke就不只三票了。但是这个
在june 30之前发生的概率太小了。
我个人觉得最重要的一点是bernanke和其他Fed的人都知道，QE对金融市场的刺激是
diminishing marginal return的。也就是虽然QE3会刺激金融市场，可是幅度肯定不及
前两次。那就是benefits没有上两次那么大了。所以，除非job market， gdp出现太过
出乎意料之外的恶化，不然bernanke应该是愿意保留这颗子弹道非不得已的时候才用。 |
|
Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 22 麻烦你让活剥睡个好觉好不好，人屁股刚清凉一下
the
the
dovishness
pressuring
0.
for |
|
o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 23 he Federal Open Market Committee is due to conclude its two-day meeting with
a statement being released at 12:30 p.m. Eastern time.
At 2 p.m. Eastern the committee is slated for the first time to release
forecasts made by individual members for the central bank’s interest-rate
target. The members will also provide views on the likely timing of the
first rate hike by the Fed.
Bernanke will hold a news conference at 2:15 p.m. Eastern.
In its recent statements, the U.S. central bank has said it wou... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 24 due to quite dovish FOMC statement released on 12:30 |
|
d********g
发帖数: 192 | 25 Ben seems dovish as well .... |
|
|
c*******y
发帖数: 1630 | 27 第一天入市？
fisher是骨灰级hawk，我最喜欢他了。 |
|
m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 28 Yallen 结束后 or 不在，股市要崩了。 |
|
c*******y
发帖数: 1630 | 29 现在群莫乱舞，已经不光是grandma market了 |
|
|
a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 31 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
by Chris Hussey
Published March 24, 2014
Stocks in Asia were decidedly higher Monday as evidence that China policy
makers are shifting to a pro-growth mode again mounts in the wake of
continuing disappointing data. Over the weekend, the HSBC PMI survey was
released and indicated another step down in business confidence with the
dispersion index dipping to 48.1 from 48.5 in February. Yu Song highlights
in a brief note Friday, "Ch... 阅读全帖 |
|
a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 32 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Stocks in Asia were mixed-to-slightly down Friday as investors are looking
through the more dovish tone from the ECB Thursday afternoon and appear to
be more pre-occupied with this morning's US March Payrolls report. China - a
country where both fundamentals and stock prices have arguably de-coupled
from the rest of the world - saw perhaps the most movement overnight with
the A shares up almost 1% (see Chenjie Liu's note from earlier in the week,
"China A-share Strategy - Reboun... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 33 Dovish Yellen will pay a hefty price after big Ben left.
We need a hawk like Fisher to have another bull market.
Before that, just look how big will be the next bear. |
|
m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 34 为啥Yellen要故意点名social media,biotechnology,small cap?
这和她历来的Dovish口气不符合啊。 |
|
c*******y
发帖数: 1630 | 35 同意1，4
1.暂时没必要猜转势，1900支撑位刚跌破，密集成交区在1850和1880之间，这没跌破，
离200DMA还有一定距离，但值得警惕的是，突破1880以后一路是缩量上涨，最近的下跌
放量明显。除非猜顶猜中，现在激进点可以加仓空，这时候开仓空不推荐。
4. 价值角度，中国股市整体估值比美股比非常低，个股具有长期投资机会。但系统性
风险，尤其
是公司债，企业债，虽然只有几个孤立的违约事件，但实际情况相当严重。
只能说肯定会有危机，什么时候无法预测
不同意2，3
2. 美国跟中国不同，散户的资金已经跌到非常低比重，从资金流动看，institute
investor一直偏空，尤其三大股指期货，/ES，/TF large trader净空头数周
3. 现在要找能大跌的理由，一抓一大把，地缘冲突（这个big picture还是ZH有统计，
每次军事冲突以后，跌的概率和幅度都不低），QE3也就2次或者3次就结束了。
有几个图值得警惕，fed balance sheet在QE以来和SPX的相关性非常强，这波下跌伴随
着很大的背离。另外HY的outflow已经形成趋势，一般HY是风险情绪的先行... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
p*******9
发帖数: 85 | 37 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-fisher-supports-ending-qe
If I'm not mistaken, Fisher support to END the bond buying.... not support
to continue... and he is the hawkish official with voting rights this year.
Instead, dovish Bullard supports to keep buying, but he doesn't have a vote
this year...
beyond
Thursday.
U. |
|
k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 38 短期的趋势向下的。刚才API weekly crude inventory 出来了 好像 Cushing
inventory build还是很高 要是明天EIA的report 确认这个，油还是要下挫的。crack
spread 短期之内大概也不太行，US rig count 减少的速度每个礼拜也就那样了， 就
看USD的走向了。要是明天Yellen是dovish, 推迟市场加息预期，也许USD能走弱。然后
就是看看利比亚伊朗有没有什么超出预期的事件。还有寄希望于short selling
traders能cover short, take profit？估计短期之内不太可能 他们大部分人短期下
看 $30多，大概一旦crude 有一些rebound 他们更倾向于press the short. |
|
c********a
发帖数: 111 | 39 many thanks! 刚刚的反弹也验证XOP>XES>XLE。XLE走得还是太稳了。
不知道这次偏dovish的表态的后续反应如何？短期内感觉还是无法击退shorts。
倒是在前几天被short的厉害的个股上可能上会后续的反弹。其中有几家昨天就开始逆
油价反弹了。 |
|
k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 40 Yellen dovish 表态 USD会暂时走弱 对crude 有一定支撑，一般SMID cap E&P 会跑赢
large cap E&P，SMID cap oil services，large cap oil services, big oil和
crude。个人认为big oil和crude是这些所有的东西里最没有搞头的。XLE中重要的成份
好多都是big oil 和 large cap E&P，比较稳但是没有beta，top holdings 里我最看
好的是EOG PXD，宁愿投这两个个股。XES在油价反弹时要跑赢XLE，它有beta而且很多
成分股都是highly shorted, 但是在油价下跌时XLE肯定比XES 稳。虽然今天下午
Yellen暂时稳住USD（就像我们昨天讨论的）目前crude市场还是看短期油价的下行风险
。那些short sellers 没那么容易放弃, 所以在XLE和XES之间，我个人选择XLE。今天
很多低质量energy 股票下午的beta rally 都是shortable的。
这三个ETF从TA看，XOP的momentum 也好些，ener... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 41 大家听得出Fed讲话的口气了吧
他是 dovish 吧 |
|
s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 42 这轮暴跌很多场外资金开始进场了
Investors Threw $5 Billion at S&P 500 ETF in Wednesday's Rally
*Fund flows reversed as S&P 500 rebounded from correction
*Hedge funds turned neutral after being short U.S. equities
Sensing a floor in equities or at least a bounce, clients of exchange-traded
funds poured more than $5 billion into the largest stock ETF Wednesday, a
sum equal to all the money they pulled out as shares plunged the previous
week.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, also known as Spyders, halted two days of
ou... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
b*********n
发帖数: 13256 | 44 The committee said it would watch progress toward its employment and
inflation objectives "in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise
the target rate at its next meeting." |
|
b*********n
发帖数: 13256 | 45 Several even suggested consideration of new monetary stimulus if the economy
fizzled. |
|
|
d********1
发帖数: 2462 | 47 没有公布之前，什么都是可能的，12.5 basis的话, 好dovish啊，黄金要涨了；）。。 |
|
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 48 Damn right, James Bullard, tho only a district fed president, has been a
bellwether for fed policy in the past couple years.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKCN0US1SM
Tho he only says rethink, and still think 4 hike this year is about right.
Well, mkt's take is dovish and probably is, for now tho.
Don't think he can be rank number 3 in theory tho, after all, only the 7
board of governors and ny fed president is permanent members of fomc, his
only alternate member, like any ... 阅读全帖 |
|
y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 49 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said "economic
growth slowed" since its last meeting in December and that inflation is
unlikely to rise rapidly toward its 2% target, a more dovish tone that
suggests the bank won't be quick to raise interest rates again. "Inflation
is expected to remain low in the near term," The Fed said in new, more
cautious language. The central bank also alluded to stock market turmoil in
the U.S. and China, saying it "is closely monitoring global ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
