z*****n
发帖数: 413 | 1 1. 没法解释。还是看书吧。这个跟计算，esitmator的好赖相关，
2。glm对independent variable的分布没有假设。假设的是Y|X是什么分布。
3。你的esitmator for b c，可以写成f(Y)。Y是有分布的，f(Y)就有。如果Y是normal
的。b,c符合t分布。如果不是，一般都可以approximate normal
4. 既然是epidemiology的背景。那就看看categorical data analysis吧。
multivariate |
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i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 2 insurance company use their own "market value" database. it's closer to
trade in price than retail excelent price. not much you can do. you can
ask for rental reimbursement, or claim bodily injury. don't expect to get
much from property damage claim.
also, kbb is usually on the high side of the esitmate. try edmunds.
uncertainty太 |
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m****a
发帖数: 330 | 3 谢谢大家的建议!update一下进展:
上午去拿police report,果然那个警察写了是我的at fault,另外居然说我倒车的时候
对方已经完全back up并且准备pull forward了.画的事故插图也完全不符合事实...看
来这个report上的亏是吃定了,我记得当时他私下里面跟白女人交流了很久,而跟我就问
了一两句,应该是他比较偏向相信他自己"同胞"的话.好在他写了一句: both vehicles
had slight to no damage.不知道这个对以后理赔有没有帮助?(police report详见附
件图片)
另外可能那个白女也拿到report了,中午给我打了个电话(我们现场的时候交换了电话号
码和保险信息),说车的damage已经esitmate出来了,整个body shop需要$1126,让我给她
写支票.我没理她让她去联系保险公司. |
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i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 4 how much is mortgage?
when I was shipping for a house, I esitmated with $2k mortgage, the
expense would be around $3k/month |
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i****a
发帖数: 36252 | 5 none
you can check sales records of nearby similar houses, you can hire a
appraiser, you can ask agents, you can estimate what upgrades are worth
in the house, you can inspect to see what repairs are needed.
those will give you a esitmate
the only way to find out the accurate home value is to sell your house.
info?
somehow.
There
recent
are
Zillow |
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x*******0
发帖数: 146 | 6 我老公看书学的, 我觉得还算管用 (前提是自己事前有做research, 知道点mortgage的
知识, 你别想什么都不懂还想给到最低的rate, 这没有运气一说, 运气好就是找的还不
错的agent,但他看你不懂, 一样给你一般般的rate）:
找朋友或网上推荐的,弄个7,8个名单(其实只要3,4个, 但总要有备选, 比如有的在谈的
时候虽然很不错, 但价钱给的不漂亮, 人再好也没办法考虑他), 和他们谈的时候, 和
他们明说打算找3个谈的好的(不只是rate好, 还要让你觉得诚恳的那种好),让他们在同
一天用当天的rate给你发个estimate, 这样你就可以比较这3人的数字明细, 你明说有
个好处, 就是让他们觉得你已经过了shop around的阶段, 他只要和另2个竞争就好了,
那他很有可能争取到你这个客户, 就愿意在你身上下功夫, 如果他觉得他有很多竞争者
, 他就觉得没劲, 除非你买的是大豪宅, 他觉得赚的多, 尚可一试之类的
还有, 没到最后决定要个哪家apply的那一刻之前, 千万不要给ssn, 因为你不一定会跟
他们借, 他们查了就会降低一点你的credit s... 阅读全帖 |
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x*******0
发帖数: 146 | 7 我老公看书学的, 我觉得还算管用 (前提是自己事前有做research, 知道点mortgage的
知识, 你别想什么都不懂还想给到最低的rate, 这没有运气一说, 运气好就是找的还不
错的agent,但他看你不懂, 一样给你一般般的rate）:
找朋友或网上推荐的,弄个7,8个名单(其实只要3,4个, 但总要有备选, 比如有的在谈的
时候虽然很不错, 但价钱给的不漂亮, 人再好也没办法考虑他), 和他们谈的时候, 和
他们明说打算找3个谈的好的(不只是rate好, 还要让你觉得诚恳的那种好),让他们在同
一天用当天的rate给你发个estimate, 这样你就可以比较这3人的数字明细, 你明说有
个好处, 就是让他们觉得你以经过了shop around的阶段, 他只要和另2个竞争就好了,
那他很有可能争取到你这个客户, 就愿意在你身上下功夫, 如果他觉得他有很多竞争者
, 他就觉得没劲, 除非你买的是大豪宅, 他觉得赚的多, 尚可一试之类的
还有, 没到最后决定要个哪家apply的那一刻之前, 千万不要给ssn, 因为你不一定会跟
他们借, 他们查了就会降低一点你的credit s... 阅读全帖 |
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G***G
发帖数: 16778 | 8 zillow esitmate is ony 5 million. |
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o********n
发帖数: 118 | 9 去看了房子condition都挺好的，但是房子却在市场上半年多卖不出去，价位比网上
esitmate的高一点而已，有3次pengding都back on market了。然后查了下crime也正常
。不知道为什么没卖出去，会不会有什么隐患？pengding失败不知道是不是表明什么问
题 |
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d***u
发帖数: 313 | 10 Went over the following article.
Big Brokers Set for Fourth-Quarter Pinch
Sandler O'Neill said lower trading revenue was light even for a December.
Trading revenue is one of sources of profit - but not the unique source. The
article particularly mentioned MS and GS. They lowered the esitmate for MS
for the 4th Q, but not for GS (however no mention why they keep same
estimate for GS, but at least they don't want to rise the GS view for 4th Q). |
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b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 11 esitmate is only 2.08, if 3.74 is the right number, to da moon! |
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b******n
发帖数: 370 | 12 forward PE depends on the incoming earning for next year.
PE (13) itself gives pessimistic or uncertain attitude of investor, isnt
that true? Plus how reliable those analyst estimates are?
An example: in May 2009, the earning estimates for past Q is 9$, the actual
now is close 20. Forward PE (based on the esitmate at that moment) is over
20.
I may rathe believe investors are more accurate than analysts in this sense. |
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s********n
发帖数: 943 | 13 and for my state income tax, after roughly esitmate,it seems my company
deduct
less state income tax, should I put the state income tax in w2 or something
else?
if i choose the state income tax,
and also I bought a new car last year, paid the sales tax 1700$, how do
I deduct that in schedule A?
thanks |
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I******6
发帖数: 500 | 14 Suppose no spill-over or spillover are all used by india.
You should get a converative esitmate of future. right?
Then it will not be a Question mark and will be perfect then. |
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p*******n
发帖数: 1003 | 15 iIt is esitmated that finance industry will lay off 100,000 people in new
york alone this year (2012). Not too surprised.
Working in this industry everyone should be prepared. |
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B*****p
发帖数: 339 | 16 上个月底搬出来的。
搬出来的时候使劲清理一下，但是炉子还是没有清理好。应该说整个还是挺干净的，炉
子除外，不过炉子就算直接换个新top，也没多少钱，GE的一个地段牌子，这么说吧，
全新的炉子和烤箱也就300多。如果你说我自己觉得很干净，其实还挺脏的，等等，这
么说，来这里10年了，搬了7次家，租房字被扣的押金加起来总共35。每次离开的时候
都收拾的很干净的。
今天收到账单，nnd，押金一分不退，还要我再给210。看了一下，说extremely dirty
，charge了270 heavy cleaning fee。
还有说地毯replaced，mmd，在那里住了26个月，有些stains，不过stain removal也足
够了，而且有个房间一直有小孩的playing cover，搬走的时候，跟全新的一样。
今天很不忿，跑过去看了一下，还没人搬进去，发现也没有cleaning (跟我收拾的一样
，炉子没有清理），地毯也没有换，然后就charge我了，估计收了我的钱，就不换了。
账单里，有两个单据，一个cleaning，一个换地毯，估计都是估价，因为实际都没有做
，但是账单里都是用的过... 阅读全帖 |
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v*****r
发帖数: 2325 | 17 Masters will be around in 1 week, golfing season fully started.
For most amateur, distance is always something of special interests,
hereby propose a Long Drive contest.
Time periond as Masters to Tour Champsion, April - end of Nov 2010
Qualifying conditions
1)any visitors at this board
2)provide you top 3 drives on any day during the time period, all drives must be :
i) read by GPS or esitmated by satelitte map or yardage books, you
control the precision
ii) the hole # and course must al |
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C*********y
发帖数: 2738 | 18 esitmated delivery还是march 22 |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 19 the noncompartmental method using trapezoidal rule can give the estimates of
CL,V,AUC etc.. and the standard deviation of the estimates. However I am
confused whether it can estimate the IIV or IOV?
Any input is greatly appreciated! |
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a*******o
发帖数: 280 | 20 noncompartmental PK approach is still a semi-model based approach with
parameterizations such as
CL=F*Dose/AUC
of course you can estimate the IIV or IOV for parameters such as CL.
Unbelievable, I still know this stuff!!!
of |
|
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 22 Thank you for the input. could you enlighten more?
calculate CL=F*Dose/AUC for each subject
average=》mean of CL (CL_bar), CL_bar is the estimate of the population CL
calculate: sum(CL_bar-CL)^2/n-1=>standard deviation of CL,did you mean this
is the IIV for CL?
Thanks! |
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c*******g
发帖数: 695 | 23 I think probably you need the geological mean of CL
the Population PK ppl usually use geological mean, because
the CL distribution may be screwed.
Try to look at the distribution of your CLs then make the decision
this |
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y**g
发帖数: 197 | 24 also can try bootstrapping to find variance. |
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a*******o
发帖数: 280 | 25 that approach is called naive average
before nonlinear mixed effects modeling was popularized by Sheiner
that was how people characterize the interindividual variability IIV.
however, right now, people more use IIV refering to some ETA terms in NONMEM
.
If you have suffient data, run a NONMEM, good for your resume and job
hunting.
LOL
what a break from the life of two by two matrix, porter's 5, and NPV.
this |
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c*******g
发帖数: 695 | 26
~~~~~~~~~~~~~Still don't understand this term
any good reference for interpretation?
Thanks |
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a*******o
发帖数: 280 | 27 check out Nick Holford's work. I beleive he loved it.
As matter of fact, the orginal developer of NONMEM, Sheiner and Beal, did
not like the idea of applying Boostrapping with nonlinear mixed effects data
at all.
In the case of pharmacokinetis, most of times, boostrapping was used because
insufficient sample size, and you can not get a good statistical inference
from it. |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 28 thank you yoda! you made it clearer.
from statistical point of view, IIV is the variance of a random variable(
random effect) in the nonlinear mixed effects model frame.The ETA you
mentioned is an estimate of the variance. There is noway to estimate this
variance using the naive average.
One can still characterize the IIV by calculating the standard deviation of
CL but it is not the same thing as the variance talked above.
I am pretty good at NONMEM：）and I am writing my own algorithm to implemen |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 29 I met this guy once..very interesting....and very insulting to people with
math/stat background...
data
because
inference |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 30 i think you meant geometric mean. you are right! Cls are always positive and
the distribution is often skewed (like a lognormal). geomean is a better
choice than mean. |
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c*******g
发帖数: 695 | 31
and
~~~~~~~~~~~Yes it is what I mean |
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a*******o
发帖数: 280 | 32 interesting, theoretically, non-liner mixed effects modeling is kind of in
the middle of frequentist and bayesian frames. Based on my experiences from
my previous career, FO in NONMEM is reasonable robust, and empirical bayes
can be easily obtained through POSTHOC option.
Anyway,I am sure you will do a great job. :-)
of
implement |
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y**g
发帖数: 197 | 33
of
==============================
what kind of your algorithm for Bayesian
analysis? is it different with the one used in WinBug(MCMC+GIBBS SAMPLING)?
implement |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 34 hehe, the empirical bayesian individual estimates are not real bayesian
estimates...
from |
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i**f
发帖数: 1195 | 35 The theoretical background is the same, combined standard Gibbs and a more
general MH algorithm. However
by writing you own algorithm, it is much more flexible than using the build-
in packages from those
statistical software, ie winbug pkbug,etc. :)
Bayesian
)? |
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