o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 1 2N 3C
3H
大概是muppet约定，表示没有4张高花
won'
even |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 2 His opp doesn't look like a very strong player.
After
E |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 3 This play is actually quite against my principle in bridge. I prefer "fast
and bad" to "slow and stupid".
in
to |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 4 No, your line was optimal. :-)
Just one thing to add: even if East has Qxxx, you can still fall back on D
finesse. The contract is not cold, but it takes a minor miracle to beat it. |
|
l****a
发帖数: 272 | 5 ghxiao 的路线, 我觉得是好的, 支持.
- 题目要求很明确, "IMP", "你怎样寻求最大的机会去完成定约？"
- triple finesse, 不是经常能遇到的, 但是这副牌, 就是.
- EV 估算, "My rough estimation is about 90% of times"
能不能再具体点? 90% 怎么来的?
- "If you consider the chance for LHO to hold 4 D after he plays a low D, it
should be quite high."
typo ? 不明白. |
|
p*********6
发帖数: 679 | 6 My line probably is too simple too be the correct one, anyway 抛砖引玉。
To make it, I have to win all the remaining 10 (5 top trumps and 5d).
Since
E discarded a D, I assume E does not have DQ - E not afraid DQ being
ruffed
out. I also assume E has few trumps (1 or 2) because of 3h bid. I don't
think I have enough entries to handle D 5-1 split (to finess/ruff out D
and
draw trumps). So I am going to play for makeable/likely distribution of
W (
xxxx-xx-Qxx-AKxx or xxx-xx-Qxxx-AKxx/xxx-xxx-Qxx-AKxx).
... 阅读全帖 |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 7 As I said, the most valuable discussions come from why and how, not what.
You couldn't even provide any bridge argument on why you have to bid 4H with
an 8 losers hand when your partner only shows an invitational or better
hand without a lot of distributions. Yet, you catch a really good hand to
fit your DQxx, HKT9x and CJ9xx to have a less than 50% game, which can be
made in the real layout. If you do a simulation to give your RHO a hand with
6 good spades, less than 10 HCP and often some dist... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 8 As mapcar says, the goal is to avoid 2 trump losers. The percentage play
is to finesse with ST, if there is no any clue. Here we can win HA, and
force out DA. If east has DA, we play trump as planned.
In case west has DA, plus shown HKQ, we can locate SA in east. Then the
trump play will be different. We will play small to K, then to Q, playing
small if SJ doesn't show up. Comparing to hook SJ from east, we will
succeed when east has AX and AXX, which have 3 and 3 combinations
respectively, tot... 阅读全帖 |
|
v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 9 for finess, we should small to Q first, which will success for xxx(E),too.
totally 11 case for (1).
AJx
3 |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 10 No, you should still take the S finesse if SQ wins.
In my opinion, S to K or S to Q are close. S to Q is better
because you may go down less when east holds SAJxx, which is more likely
than west to hold them because that would give west 10 HCPs and fail to
overcall. Also when some player leads honor connection (or long suit)
instead of shortness in side suits, he is more likely to hold trump
shortness. Also, you have to play D or C to enter dummy if you want to play S to SK, which would increas... 阅读全帖 |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 11 If west has DA, I don't worry about club 4-1. First of all, west may not
find club shift from 4 small clubs. More importantly, if west has DA, the
play to finesse SJ is a losing line. To play diamonds first, it specifically
caters to the case where west holds DA, it actually gains a lot (close to
30%) whenever west has DA, it loses a little (about 8% chance) when east has
DA (only in that case does club 4-1 matters). |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 12 you will never be sure that finesse ST is a losing one even if west holds DA
, because that would give west 10 HCPs, and he would act with10 HCPs a lot
of times with some kind of distributions. And I don't buy the theory that it
is difficult for west to find C switch. It is a very natural switch once
his partner discouraged in H. You would almost surely go down whenever C is
4-1, that would seriously hurt your line. And 4-1 break is about 28%. I was
indeed shocked to see some number like 8%.
... 阅读全帖 |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 13 No one said finessing S10 is surely wrong. But when west holds DA, it only
has 40% chance of success comparing with 70% if you play to SK. Given the
possibility of club ruff, that 70% chance has to be reduced, but not to the
extent of outweighing the benefit. You are right, 4-1 break is 28%, so the
chance of ruff is about 14%, not 8%.
DA
it
is
was |
|
m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 14 when i wrote it, i didn't reference back to the original hand. but i think
you get my point about ending in dummy to take the last heart.
and i forgot to say, if H didn't break, then i'd need to take the J finess
first before cashing DA and DK.
own |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 15 At first glance, it seems that it doesn't matter what east does.
After studying the title of the post, we can give declarer the choice to set
up clubs, instead of the working diamond finesse.
So we return H2, telling declarer heart is 4-4. Declarer may hold something
like:
AJx(x)
A6
xx(x)
KTxx(x)
My answer seems too simple to be right :) |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 16 这其实是一副比较简单的牌。飞牌的选择主要是在黑桃或红心上。梅花上也有个飞牌，
但即使飞中了也不解决问题，属于practice finesse，BBO上经常看到有人做，但是应
该完全避免，至少在第一墩没有必要。
明手只有两次进手。我们先假设飞失的情况。
1）如果先飞红心被西家HK拿，接下去就用梅花进明手飞将牌，希望东家持黑桃单K或Kx
双张。
2）如果先飞黑桃被西家SK拿，接下去就用梅花进明手飞红心，希望东家持红心单K或Kx
双张。
两种情况看似对称，其实不然。联手有9张黑桃，东家持SK单张或双张的可能性远高于
红心单K或Kx双张。所以这种情况下以先飞红心为优。
在第（2）种情况，另外还有一种可能就是第二轮梅花明手用CJ飞，然后在CK上垫去HJ
，接下去再飞红心。总的来说也是小概率。
现在考虑飞成的情况。如果防守方都是诚实的，也就是说西家不会持K忍让，那么两种
打法差不多，但是先飞红心略好，因为飞黑桃的话需要用明手第二张梅花进手，存在被
将吃的可能。红心飞成之后庄家应该直接从手中出SA再SQ，对方不可能有机会将吃。
最后，如果飞牌成功，防守方是否其实在通过忍让误导庄家？应该看到，如果西家... 阅读全帖 |
|
j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 17 still needs to guess DQ right.
1) If you believe DQ is on side, win with SQ and finesse D now.
2) If you tend to think DQ is off side, play DK and another D to LHO who has
no club to return, and your remaining D is good with HA as entry. Your D is
congested if you let DQ win first.
which one is more likely? the fact that the ace jumped out seems to suggest
the Q is on side... |
|
a****s
发帖数: 524 | 18 you do have a point.
but how do you explain to teammates a simple finesse makes the contract but
you went down when RHO had AQxx in diamonds? |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 19 ruff C. cash DAK.
Suppose D 3-1, east holds DQ.
now H to HK, ruff H, play D to throw east in. You make it when H 3-4.
If D 3-1, west holds DQ, you have to take S finesse or play some kind
squeeze. |
|
m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 20 ok, i understand the first case. very good. I also like to finesse S, beca
use it is something i am good at. |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 21 But suppose W return a spade, now do you finesse? |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 22 You are right. You suppose either Qx drop from west or Q in east. This will
give us 9th trick, so the squeeze still works.
If west has only 2S, it is against the chance to play drop. So maybe the
best line is to try to cash DK after one round of trump. If it is not ruffed
, we cash second trump, and ruff a D. This will ensure 4H. If DK is ruffed,
we get back to dummy with second trump, and finesse S. Then squeeze east in
S and C.
This way we won't get -2 if west has Qx in spade.
I just checked b... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 23 You are right. You suppose either Qx drop from west or Q in east. This will
give us 9th trick, so the squeeze still works.
If west has only 2S, it is against the chance to play drop. So maybe the
best line is to try to cash DK after one round of trump. If it is not ruffed
, we cash second trump, and ruff a D. This will ensure 4H. If DK is ruffed,
we get back to dummy with second trump, and finesse S. Then squeeze east in
S and C.
This way we won't get -2 if west has Qx in spade.
I just checked b... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 24 Although 6S is not the best, but I agree with N-S bids. Even if there is bid
available for north to show spade tolerance, and choices of slam (maybe 5NT
or 6C), it is not clear for south to choose 6D rather than 6H or 6S.
It is hard to bid everything at this level. That is purpose of preempt.
I don't see any sensible play :) The C2 should show singleton or 3 clubs.
Then there won't be meaningful squeeze against east. I will draw 3 rounds of
trump, play two rounds of heart. If hearts don't break,... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 25 I had a blind spot. It seems we don't need to make any decision before
conceding a trump. After winning any return from east, we can check the
heart suit first. If east has 4 or more hearts, we squeeze him on H and D,
taking care of DQx from west. If west holds long hearts (very unlikely
though), we finesse D.
Thought about the bidding again. If north's pass over 5C is encouraging, as
most people play, south should probably bid 6S by himself. In the real
bidding, south seems too conservative, bu... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 26 Although 6S is not the best, but I agree with N-S bids. Even if there is bid
available for north to show spade tolerance, and choices of slam (maybe 5NT
or 6C), it is not clear for south to choose 6D rather than 6H or 6S.
It is hard to bid everything at this level. That is purpose of preempt.
I don't see any sensible play :) The C2 should show singleton or 3 clubs.
Then there won't be meaningful squeeze against east. I will draw 3 rounds of
trump, play two rounds of heart. If hearts don't break,... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 27 I had a blind spot. It seems we don't need to make any decision before
conceding a trump. After winning any return from east, we can check the
heart suit first. If east has 4 or more hearts, we squeeze him on H and D,
taking care of DQx from west. If west holds long hearts (very unlikely
though), we finesse D.
Thought about the bidding again. If north's pass over 5C is encouraging, as
most people play, south should probably bid 6S by himself. In the real
bidding, south seems too conservative, bu... 阅读全帖 |
|
m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 28 so many chances to make this contract, the only problem now is to choose the
right person to declare.
unfortunately, I have chosen myself.
I will take the finess, now what? |
|
m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 29 oh! i can discard a D if east ruffs my spade. too bad I took the finess
too early. that's a shame.
works
spades
pressure |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 30 You mean no finesse at trick 1? |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 31 If he ducks, you can just take H finesse to make it. East has to hold HK,
otherwise, west passed with SA HK DA CQ
do |
|
j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 32 I feel HK and CQ must be on side.
Play DK, pitching a spade.
Finesse with HQ.
Play CA and T, and keep playing clubs...
nothing "grand" here, though |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 33 I think it is slightly better to finesse DJ than play DAK.
DJ will work if east holds QTxx (6 cases) while DAK fails.
DAK will work if west holds Qx (4 cases) and Q while DJ fails.
Also, DJ keeps the chance of 6 D trick, which is not important here. |
|
j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 34 yeah, but finessing DJ also works. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 35 Your play will give you maximum chance, I believe. Let's see how the stars
and world class played.
He played the same as you, a club, but he did not finesse! I thought it must
be a mis-click, and expected undo. He did not undo, and quickly played
another club. West won this gift, and thought for a long time. The stupid
south started to complain west for slow playing.
EW had 5 winners now, but west exited with a diamond in the end. South won
the gift, cashed H winner, and played a small spade.
I ... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 36 One way is to ruff the last D, but that will rely on the guess to use which
black suit to get into hand to draw trumps. It will fail if the chosen suit
is 5-1 split.
I hate that kind of guess, and will try my luck on one of the black queens:
try to drop CQ in three round, and if not, finesse SQ or squeeze in two
black suits if applicable.
Ruff the second D, and play a trump. CA to hand, and clear trumps. Is trump
worse than 4-2? |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 37 There was no chance to duck CA at the table. I made it up :) But I think it
is reasonable. Otherwise, declarer can avoid you, either by finessing your
SQ, or setting up D safely.
CK play can benefit at some situation, but it is too specific. What I can
think of is only:
RHO C holding is exactly Jxx, and LHO holds D Kx, Kxx or both KQ.
-5 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 38 That is a likely layout, although it may not be necessary to play C to J
first.
How about this line? First try C to K. If it loses to A, next try C to J. If
it also loses, go back to D finesse. This line works if RHO has CA, or LHO
has CQ, or LHO has DQ. The chance to fail is about 1/8 = 12.5%.
My previous line to end-play LHO fails if RHO has
exactly D Qxx, and
mis-guess C or there is no guess (LHO CAQ).
The chance to fail is about 0.36 / 2 * (0.5*misGuess + 0.25) = 4.5 to 13.5%
where 0.5 is th... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 39 Somehow I feel this hand is familiar to me :)
The only threat is 4-1 trump split. Three rounds of trumps, then start to
cash hearts. Finesse C in the end. I don't know how to make it if CK is off.
Is this hand to show some greedy people want to make 7, and ruff D two early? |
|
p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 40 cash CA, If Stiff K dropped from east, you are home.
If west holds stiff CK, you can take D finesse against east. Cash all D and
exit H, hope to end play west with a holding like SJxxx (Qxxx) HAQxxx Dxxx
CK
If nothing happens, S to SA and try to drop SQ or SJ from west. If nothing
happens, you probably want to try D to DJ, then play C to C9 and hope H Q
blocked or H is 4-4. |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 41 一般来说，如果右手方有HK，你出HQ的时候他很难不扑。从防守方的角度，你手里甚至
可能是：AQxxx，Ax，xxx，AKQ，只能绝望地打HQ希望右手方duck，好像这种打法在这
里被称为中国式飞牌（Chinese Finesse），我也不太清楚这个跟中国到底有啥关系。
但是跟简单飞牌相比呢，这个打法的gain并不是很明显，只在左手方梅花单K或单J的时
候有区别。好的牌手应该不会从Kx或Jx里出K或J。尤其是拿Kx的时候，肯定是宁可再出
红牌让你一吃一垫了，CK还是可以拿到。 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 42 Five cards situation (east irrelevant):
2
AQJ8
-
-
J
K954
-
-
4
T32
-
Q
When south plays CQ, west has to give up SJ, dummy discarding a H. Then use
the S4 entry to finesse H second time. |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 43 It's not 3 to 1. Reason is simple: say you play J, RHO covers K, LHO plays 8
or x, are you going to finesse 9 next? |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 44 Why? Because combined chances for line 2 + line 3 is better than line 1?
As I mentioned, you cannot add those together. Starting with J may not be
immediately fatal, but you have to guess on next round, and you have to
calculate the percentage that you will guess wrong, then derive the success
rate of either line 2 or 3, but not both, then compare that with line 1.
To give you an example, which looks different but actually the same. Say you
are in a slam, you cannot lose another trick. Suit 1 is... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 45 Possible ending:
squeeze west if he has 4+ clubs (less likely);
finesse east if west has CJx or Tx (more likely).
Need to figure out west's shape. S2 should be an honest singleton. HKQ, both
follow? |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 46 I think I was asking if it is possible to combine other chance with diamond
guess, or delay diamond guess so you have better idea.
If you play diamond to 8 or Q, the outcome is already determined. Even if
LHO started with diamond Jx or Kx (and played low), you will still choose to
finesse later since that is the percentage play. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 47 Once we know LHO has 2 diamonds, we can play DA and small, avoiding the
guess I really hate. It will fail if both DKJ are at RHO.
LHO actually has DJx. So your careful play to D8 will succeed, and will
score easy 12 tricks by squeezing LHO in majors.
The declarer at the table unfortunately played D to Q, and later finesse DJ
for down 1.
the
either |
|
v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 48 Just make life easier.
SA,S ruff, finesse for HK. If it fails, ruff another S and run H, hope for
some squeeze. Probably D+C, even not very likely. |
|
v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 49 Ruff in hand. Then small D to K.
(i) If it wins, two round of C and small D to J.
(ii) If it fails, try H 33. D finesse could be the last chance. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 642 | 50 In that case, it is always down if RHO ducks the first heart (we are not
going to finesse with H9). Also, he may have the second trump to exit. |
|
