l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 1 that fund has a daily return std of 30bps, so a 55bp loss in a day is quite
possible.you may lose more than 1% in a day if the interest rate goes up
significantly in a day.
Given that current interest rate is at/near historical low, the fund has
more downside than upside. Unless you are a senior citizen, I hope you don't
have all your investment in bond fund. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 If you use long-term (even 2-5 yr) bonds to park short-term (1-2 month)
money, the interest rate risk you are taking is much more than the
interest you are gaining.
Even though rate hiking is not very likely in the near future, market
still fluctuates based on changing expectation. |
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 3 Not sure about Shenzhen since the price there is too fluctuate. If it's
Shanghai, I will recommend for sure. Also the price is a little high for you
guys given you won't earn that much after going back to China or HK.
If it's investment purposes, this one is definitely not a good one.
理。
20 |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 4 bubbles in recent years are much too big, too long, too frequent. look at
the SP500, house price curves in history. all are huge bubbles. and still
bubbles now even with the recent crash.
I start to invest my spare money from 2003, I believed investment would give
me positive return better than interest return in long term, I do not care
about fluctuation in stock market, alway buy and hold, but now after 7 years
, when I check my investment accout, total money (including dividens) has
negative |
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 5 A "long-term" investor (by choice) probably won't worry about daily price
fluctuation, or care about any instruments move against the stock market in
the short-term. Sticking to your strategic allocation and rebalancing
during volatile periods probably is suffcient.
But f you are not a long-term investor and do concern about short-term
market movements, you may want to a) hedge and b) gauge the return/risk
trade-off so that you can act accordingly. Then these short EFTs and
derivatives are need |
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s*****n
发帖数: 2174 | 6 For this particular fund, you will receive dividend every month.
It is very similar to CD, except that the principal will fluctuate every day, but you are not locked in to any specific term.
Other fund may have different dividend/capital gain timing. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 So sounds like your LD should do the 5k traditional IRA and you
shouldn't.
That will bring your income down to 145k or so, still in the
28% category. (But 28% and 25% isn't too different IMO though.)
You may also contribute to traditional IRA without any tax
benefit and then do a Roth conversion later. Might be worth
it if your job is not stable (family income fluctuates
year-to-year). Not sure about this point since I never researched
the Roth conversion thing -- no such need to research, too
p |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 8 by my prediction indicator, there will be no big down, just fluctuation in
next 5 monthes |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 9 日期(MM/DD/YY):
04/02/10
YTD:
9.47%
S&P 500: 5.65%
备注:
Lost to index by 0.2% (+0.8% vs +1.0%). I guess it\'s just normal
fluctuation.
Haven\'t done anything since I adjusted my portfolio to \"home made\"
indexing
mode 4 weeks ago. |
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i**********s
发帖数: 528 | 10 转的时候说如果由于fluctuation可能造成 liquidation。
难到要盛几十块钱？ 而且现在转了之后好像还在pending 请
问要等多久 才能完成交易？
fund. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 Depending on what kind of bond fund you have, it could be based on the
expectation of short-term interest, long-term interest, default rate,
simple fluctuation of market confidence, etc. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 12 Natural gas as an energy has a bright future in the sense that it will get
cheaper and cheaper ... :)
But I am serious -- don't touch natural gas. Price may fluctuate as always
but fundamentally there is no upside. Just forget it. Any commodity is
better than natural gas, which is probably the only thing that has potential
supply way over demand.
may |
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 13 junk bond risk comes from fluctuation in a) interest rate and b) credit-
spread (reflecting default risk).
Both a) and b) are mean-reverting, and I think they are now much closer to
their lows than median, thanks go US fed QE efforts.
The reported historical performance reflects the gains in the past decades
from a) declining interest rate and b) narrowing credit spread. going
forwards could be a different story depending on how the eoncomy & monetary
policy play out. |
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 14 what i meant was that, from an investor's perspective, if an undervalued
bond is identified and purchased, he will hold it to the maturity, at which
time, the price of the bond is bound to revert back to the par value.
for a bond trader, much like any other securities, the price of a bond
fluctuates everyday. but why should an investor be concerned with that if he
doesn't plan to sell?
the future cash flow, but also the forward interest rates you use to
discount these cashflows, interest rate v... 阅读全帖 |
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 15 this brings back the fond memory of my class discussion on the same topic
back in unversity.
the short answer is that the value of a stock is not related to its dividend
. that being said, dividend paying stocks are favored by certains classes of
investors, and the decrease or disruption of dividends are usually
negatively viewed by the market.
when a company's stock price drops below a certain point, it can be assumed
that someone or a competitor will acquire it to gain control over its
valuabl... 阅读全帖 |
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m**********r
发帖数: 887 | 16 Well, I guess all the gain from the second part (the accumulated but not
paid interest) is treated purely as dividend when you sell the bond. I think
this make sense, cause this part is caculated by the fixed interest rate of
the bond when it was issued and is not subject to intrest risk and market
fluctuation.
Think it this way:
When you hold coupon bond, you get dividend paid cash twice a year. when you
sell it, you get back the current market value of your principal.
When you hold zero-coupon... 阅读全帖 |
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m********d
发帖数: 1281 | 17 A lot of corporate bonds and some muni bonds have a call option built in,
which means that even if you purchased them today at a coupon rate, they can
be recalled. Also if you sell before maturity, their principal value can
fluctuate depends on the market, so yield can go down. |
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m********d
发帖数: 1281 | 18 A lot of corporate bonds and some muni bonds have a call option built in,
which means that even if you purchased them today at a coupon rate, they can
be recalled. Also if you sell before maturity, their principal value can
fluctuate depends on the market, so yield can go down. |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 19 TTM earing is history earing in last 12 month, it is more like short term
fluctuation. the ttm PE was >90 in middle of 2009 since huge earning loss
during 2008-2009 , but stock gain a lot after that. PE10 may be more
reasonable in presenting the true earing ability in a long term. I think
even the 10 year average earing is higher than it should be since last 10
year is also low interest rate environment. and almost for sure the
interest rate will increase in near future. I do not expect this rec... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******t
发帖数: 9274 | 20 那你也要看上证指数的PE是那种PE吧
最稳定的还是看中值吧...无论你用哪种pe..都会有fluctuation的 |
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X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 21 That's not why ETF decay.
Say the stock up 25% and then down 20%, so it returns to its
original price, i.e. (1+25%)*(1-20%)=1
For 3x ETF, the price up 25%*3 and then down 20%*3,
(1+25%*3)*(1-20%*3)=0.7
So its value decayed 30% due to fluctuation of the underlying
stock price. |
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l****y
发帖数: 8847 | 22 We are talking about the same thing.....
If fluctuation is 5%, then it's 99.75, if 20%, it's 96
No matter first go up or down |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 23 Tell me, just what experience did you gain exactly?
I only see emotions up and down by temporary market fluctuation. |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 24 Couldn't care less about short term fluctuation. My only problem is I've
long run out of my bullets since I all-in'ed PM two years ago. But I still
switched some holdings into higher-beta stuff today. Gonna be a fun ride.
still
too. |
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l********2
发帖数: 72 | 25 investment return fluctuate, if your have stable income to cover repayment,
then more mortgage at current rate is a sure thing, otherwise, no.
the |
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m**********r
发帖数: 887 | 26 As long as you are aware about the fluctuation, SHY is fine. Many people use
SHY to juice up the return and I actually use both SHY and SHV. |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 27 By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
Ben Bernanke presided over his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman in
March 2006 believing the nation's economy could pull off a "soft landing"
from falling home prices. Three months later, Bernanke had begun to grasp
that he and others had underestimated the risk housing posed to the economy.
Newly released transcripts of Fed meetings during Bernanke's first year as
chairman show that, among Fed officials, he often expressed the most concern
about ... 阅读全帖 |
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D*******a
发帖数: 3688 | 28 the bond price fluctuates based on its yield (not coupon rate)
but if you hold till maturity it does not matter |
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X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 29 If you start with a pile of cash, DCA over a long period towards
your intended asset mix doesn't make sense, because you have
effectively overweighted cash for that period. On the other hand,
DCA over a small window could work, depending on how you model
the market, i.e. how much fluctuation the market has versus the
cost of hold cash.
etc |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 30 I'm not an expert on REIT, just wanted to comment on the "historical height"
thing. You have to ask yourself: If you believe America does have a bright
future, like in the past, aren't stock markets/real estate all going to make
new highs from time to time? Why is that new highs are like plague that you
want to avoid? If the assets can only fluctuate around some certain level
and are unable to make new highs, why bother to invest?
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying you should jump in on a new hi... 阅读全帖 |
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y****i
发帖数: 778 | 31 You are right. Only yield not market price can garantee your long term like
20-25 year return. However, the fluctuations
of the market price may give you some opportunity to buy the dip. The most
important strategy for this type investment is that you must have something
predictable for the transaction. Thus, individual bond including low rating
investment grade corporate bond and tax free municipal bond can give you
garantee return based on yield, but also short term speculation if you buy
the ... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 32 unless lenders required, it is not 必须
it is to reduce the volitility caused by gold price fluctuation |
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S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 33 was thinking:
As the level of inlaftion fluctuats, what kind of investment vehicle besides
the TIPS, can beat the inflation all the time? Inflation-adjusted bonds?
unemployment |
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S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 34 was thinking:
As the level of inlaftion fluctuats, what kind of investment vehicle besides
the TIPS, can beat the inflation all the time? Inflation-adjusted bonds?
unemployment |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 35 IUL为啥要做dollar cost averaging？
>> 2 reasons:
a) There is 7-pay limitation on IUL, you can't invest a lot one-time.
b) In the long term, index will go up, but in the short term, it has
fluctuations, so you better DCA because nobody knows when is the peak and
when is the trough.
为什么你认为IUL expense too high呢？按照规定，只有最开始八年的admin
fee ，以及放钱的6%,20元的管理费而已。
>> Isn't this enough? Calculate how much the expenses you already
identified will earn you in 30 years, after-tax. You will be surprised how
much it c... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 36 "假设未来２０年只波动，但不增长。IUL的回报会比普通的投资多。"
This statement is too vague, it's best to let numbers talk.
But even from a qualitative perspective, in a flat market, as long as the
market fluctuates, and as long as you do dollar cost averaging, your low
cost investment should still beat IUL, for two key reasons -
1) the IUL's initial years' costs are simply too high, it offsets any
benefits brought by it;
2) in a down market, your investment will have more purchasing power! |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 37 Ask yourself two fundamental questions before taking tactical actions -
1. Are your assets appropriately diversified between stocks and bonds funds?
2. Do you periodically re-balance the portfolio?
If you do both above, you will be less worried about short term market
fluctuations. |
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D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 38 i was assuming you bought a long term treasury bond fund. daily fund price
reflects the prices of its underlying holdings, in this case, various
individual long term treasury bonds. bond price is determined by the market
, prices of bond fund fluctuates all the time.
if you have an individual bond and HOLD TO MATURITY, as long as it doesn't
default, you will get your principal back, not one cent less.
would US treasury ever default? that's a whole different debate. |
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D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 39 1. spread your money among asset classes ( for example: 30% large cap, 20%
small cap, 20% foreign stocks, 30% bond, tweak this formula to your taste)
2. keep investing and DCA every month, quarter or year
3. Rebalance once or twice a year
4. do not pay attention to price fluctuation of individual fund/etf, view
your entire portfolio as one piece
5. do not invest in just one fund, unless it's a balanced fund ( a mixture
of equity and bond) such as a target retirement fund.
6. read a book of asset... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 40 1) Not directly comparable, it depends on your risk tolerance and objectives
. Right now is not a good environment to consider fixed annuity (unless you
are well into your retirement and have to consider annuity). If you are
really conservative, all your money is on CD or Money market, maybe you can
consider a hybrid annuity, at least you are participating the market.
2) I am not a big fan to start annuity early, because it doesn't make sense
to pay the insurance company 1.5%-2% annually so you ... 阅读全帖 |
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D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 41 two major types of risks are associated with bond investing, credit risk
and interest rate risk. When the borrower defaults, investors lose their
principal. This is credit risk. When interest rate rises, bond prices go
down. This is interest rate risk.
If one holds an individual bond to its maturity and get repaid principal in
full amount, then the interest risk is non-exsitent. problem is the bond
issuer may go bust and default its debt. Such credit risk is always
associated with individual bo... 阅读全帖 |
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t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 42 better yet, look at it once a while and resist the urge to do something if
it fluctuate much. Harder, but you'll be better.
And set up a DCA plan. |
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f******r
发帖数: 2975 | 43 刚才研究到的
Backdoor Roth: A Complete How-To
by Harry Sit on December 20, 2010 —366 Comments
backdoor
[Last updated on July 14, 2014, with new contribution limits and links to
follow-up articles on tax reporting.]
Although I believe a traditional deductible IRA is often better than a Roth
IRA, a Roth IRA is still better than a taxable account if you aren’t
eligible for a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA. When you aren’
t allowed to contribute to a Roth IRA because your income is too high,... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 44 长期持有的话这个组合不错， well diversified (US vs overseas, Stocks vs bonds
, growth vs yields), all low cost, appropriate to the risk tolerance level,
but short term still could be subject to high fluctuation, just be patient. |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 45 长期持有的话这个组合不错， well diversified (US vs overseas, Stocks vs bonds
, growth vs yields), all low cost, appropriate to the risk tolerance level,
but short term still could be subject to high fluctuation, just be patient. |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 46 I'm not an expert on bond funds and don't want to mislead you, but I guess
it's probably not a bad idea for you to do your diligence and have a good
understanding of zero coupon bond first, and set your expectations properly.
It doesn't matter how much the past performance of this fund had. It's
holding zeroes and will mature and liquidate in 2025 as the name suggests.
It should be fairly easy to calculate how much discount you're getting at
any given time. Whether it's worthwhile, everyone has ... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 47 They could be, they could be also managed in-house, or a mixture of both.
But the future pension obligations are hard to measure until the bills are
due, while the current pension assets value fluctuates. Often an important
portion of pension fund is made of company stock, which is fine as long as
the company is doing good, and it is cheap for the company, but when things
get wrong...you get the idea. |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 48 This is good suggestion.
Also, I'd suggest for simplicity to just go with "Target 2045" and don't
mess with it, especially if you don't want to learn about investing. A bit
of light on bonds is probably fine IMHO. Bonds are more pricey than equity
at this moment. And they don't give you protection against inflation. Over
the time you just keep saving a chunk of your paycheck and accumulating the
target fund.
Don't watch the fluctuation and don't pretend that you know which direction
the markets ... 阅读全帖 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 49 If you buy the shares one day before ex-dividend day, your trade will settle
by the record date, and you'll be entitled to the dividend.
Or, you can save the trouble if this is too confusing to you, because when
the new owners are not entitled to the dividend, market actually discounts
that, and the price will drop by the dividend amount. Well, not exactly the
same mount, as fluctuations are always there whenever trading activities
occur. But hopefully you get the idea.
IMO, chasing dividend is ... 阅读全帖 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 50 Buy and hold is a time tested, winning strategy. What can be better than
that over a long time? Capturing MAJOR turning points and then buy and hold,
which is possible but very difficult and not for everyone.
There sure can be other winning strategies, but if you are focusing on day-
to-day fluctuations, and even panicking over some funds' dividend
distribution, I can tell you it won't work. It's not even a strategy imo. I
know you are going to say you made money doing so. Wait for at least a fe... 阅读全帖 |
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