l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 美
国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)官员周三下调了对美国经济表现的评估
，但未发出计划采取新措施提振经济增长和就业的信号。
在美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC)为期两天的
政策会议结束后，Fed官员表示，规模6,000亿美元的美国国债购买计划将如期于6月30
日结束，接近零的短期利率水平至少还将维持几个月。
Fed官员在FOMC会后声明中称，美国经济继续温和复苏，但速度比预想的略慢。他们还
指出，4月份会议到这次会议期间，就业市场指标弱于预期。
虽然Fed对经济前景的看法恶化，但采取新措施提振经济的空间不大。由于核心通货膨
胀率已经上升Fed在向金融系统注入更多流动性方面必须谨慎。
即便不采取进一步的刺激措施，Fed的货币政策依然非常宽松。与市场预想的一样，Fed
周三表示，将继续持有规模2.832万亿美元的证券和贷款资产。该行将把债券到期所得
收益进行再投资，并且重申将在较长时间内把利率维持在接近零的水平。
Fed官员把经济疲软归罪于汽油价格高涨、日本地震导致供应短缺等临时性因素。他们
... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 经济学家们纷纷就美国就业数据发表意见。该数据显示失业率降至近五年低点，但就业
增长弱于预期，而且平均时薪出现9个月以来的首次下降。部分经济学家们认为，该数
据可能促使美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)推迟缩减购债规模
的时间；很多观察人士目前预期美联储将从9月份开始收缩量化宽松政策。以下是一些
机构和经济学家的观点：
--美国就业报告令人失望。就业人数减少、每周工作时间缩短且薪资降低。美联储逐步
缩减债券购买规模的决定不会基于单个数据，尤其是在数据众多、高频率发布的情况下
，但在美国联邦储备委员会公开市场委员会(FOMC)声明未暗示9月份采取行动、制造业
采购经理人指数(PMI)显示价格下跌以及最新公布的就业数据疲软情况下，那些认为美
联储下月缩减长期资产购买规模已是板上钉钉的人士或需反思。---布朗兄弟哈里曼公
司(Brown Brothers Harriman)
--7月份就业数据略逊于预期，此前月份的数据也被小幅向下修正，7月工作小时数和薪
资情况表现不佳。对美国家庭调查的结果显示出更加积极的趋势，失业率创出本轮周期
新低，部分行业就业出现强劲增... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)周三称，将在10月末停止其长
期实施的债券购买计划。这意味着，美联储将终止一项历史性的试验，该试验已在市场
上引发了有关其效果的激烈争论，尽管美联储称其已达到了减少失业的主要目标。
此外，美联储更新了其对于美国就业市场状况的评估，同时指出了通胀面临的一些短线
下行风险。美联储保留了有关短期利率将在较长时间内维持在接近零水平的保证。
总体而言，上述举措显示了美联储对美国经济的信心。美国经济第三季度的增速似乎达
到了3%左右。这远好于日本和欧洲的经济增速，同时，在中国经济增长似乎正在减速之
际，这对全球经济而言也是一个积极信号。
美联储指出，美国就业人数出现强劲增长，同时失业率出现下降，并称，一系列劳动力
市场指标显示，美国劳动力市场的过剩状况正逐渐消退。这一表态删除了上一次声明中
有关劳动力市场过剩状况较为“严重”的评估。投资者一直密切关注该措辞的变化情况
，以便寻找美联储对美国经济信心增强的信号。
美联储在声明中称，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)认为，自当前资产购买计划实施以来，
美国劳动力市场前景出现了显著改善。此外... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Dismal Retail Sales Numbers Suggest Recession Likely Underway: Overall +0.0%
, YoY +0.9%, Department Stores -2.2%
Economists were surprised by the dismal retail sales report this morning.
That's not surprising because economists are nearly always surprised.
The Bloomberg Consensus retail sales estimate was a rise of 0.2%, but sales
came in at 0.0% and the details were ugly, emphasis mine.
Consumer confidence may be strong but it still is not translating to
strength for consumer spending. Ret... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 5 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Friday that the bank would likely
raise interest rates this month barring unexpected economic turmoil.
Yellen said during a speech in Chicago that the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) would likely hike rates if employment and inflation
continue to move toward the Fed’s optimal goals.
“At our meeting later this month, the committee will evaluate whether
employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our
expectations, in which case a furt... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 6 根据联准会(Fed)公布的最近一次会议纪要，Fed官员仍然相信，继续逐步提高利率是保
持经济稳定的最佳方案。
这可能会让川普总统不太满意，他近日一直在批评Fed的行动。
➤➤➤川普：Fed是最大威胁
9月25日至26日联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议摘要反映了对经济成长率的信心，以及
对关税可能影响未来的一些犹豫。
最终，委员会一致投票批淮将基准利率目标升息25个基点，并表示未来会升息更多次。
纪录显示，「针对日后货币政策的展望，Fed成员们相信联邦基金利率目标的逐渐上升
与稳健的经济扩张、强劲的劳动市场，以及中期近2%的通膨率相符。」
面对川普越来越激烈的抨击，Fed决心继续升息。
会议纪录似乎与Fed主席鲍尔的言论相吻合，也就是目前要达到中性利率仍有一段距离
。纪录中没有提到川普。
然而，根据FOMC的讨论内容，川普自己的政策也危及他总统任内的GDP成长。
纪录指出，「儘管十分乐观，但许多企业在某些情况下放弃生产或投资机会，包括劳力
短缺和贸易政策的不确定性。」「特别是钢铝关税减少了对能源部门的新投资，迫使企
业在进出口来源开始推动多元化... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 7 在美联储主席耶伦卸任前最后一次货币政策会议上，联储发出的强烈信号就两个字
：加息！
21日本周三公布的今年1月末美联储会议纪要显示，与会联储官员总体认为，收到
的信息与经济增长持续高于趋势水平和就业市场环境更强健的趋势一致，最近家庭和企
业支出的稳步增长意味着有“大量潜在的经济动能”。
鉴于近期美国国内外经济活动数据强劲、金融环境持续宽松、近来美国税改的影响
，“多位（A number of ）与会者暗示，已经上调了去年12月会议上他们做出的近期经
济增长预期。”
“大多数（A majority of）与会者指出，由于经济增长前景更强，未来确定政策
适宜进一步循序渐进的可能性增加了。”
除了对美国经济前景看法更正面，与会官员对实现联储的通胀目标也更乐观。
“几乎所有（Almost all）与会者依旧预期，通胀率中期内会回升到2%这一（FOMC
）委员会的目标，因为经济增长仍高于趋势水平，就业市场保持强劲。多位与会者评论
，近来的进展让他们对通胀升向2%这一委员会目标的前景更有信心。”
也有部分（some）官员认为，存在通胀落后于联... 阅读全帖 |
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o*********l
发帖数: 1807 | 8 MONDAY
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
TUESDAY
FOMC Meeting Begins
WEDNESDAY
Tim Geithner Speaks
10:00 AM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET
THURSDAY
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FRIDAY
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 9 The chairman of the FOMC, which sets interest rates, is
elected to a one-year term by the committee’s members at the group’s first
regular meeting of the year (January 26-27). When nominations are taken at
that meeting, the chairman of the board by custom is the only one nominated.
So Bernanke could remain as FOMC chairman even if Kohn had to be nominated
as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. |
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w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | 10 下周是FOMC MINUTE,不是FOMC MEETING吧，怎么会有加西呢？ |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 11 牛熊血战11000高地？
胡祈狗想？
今天是星期二四月六日，美股的牛军和熊军正在血战，夺取道指11000高地？
FOMC会议继续维持低利率刺激经济股市房市政策？但是也警告了股市泡沫的风险？
熊军等待FOMC会议信息公布的良机来一个大瀑布突袭？前一段时间美股涨得太厉害啦？
牛军准备趁胜追击，一鼓作气拿下道指11000高地？
目前熊军和牛军还在拼刺刀？不分胜负？
继续观望？ |
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o*********l
发帖数: 1807 | 12 Monday Jun 21
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Tuesday Jun 22
FOMC Meeting Begins
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Wednesday Jun 23
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting An |
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z*********z
发帖数: 163 | 13 The FOMC announcement for the September 21 FOMC policy meeting is expected
to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25
percent. The big question is whether any additional quantitative easing
measures will be announced. Also, analysts look for signs of dissent over
the timing of changes in the Fed's balance sheet as well as the size of
changes and even the planned composition of assets (mainly Treasuries versus
non-Treasury assets).
Guguru,解释一下吧。 |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 14 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Fed's Fisher: Debate over QE2 is not over
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 7 14:12:17 2010, 美东)
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas
Federal Reserve Bank, suggested Thursday that a second round of bond buying
by the central bank was not a foregone conclusion. "There is a great deal of
legitimate debate still to take place within the FOMC on the subject of
quantitative easing and the pros and cons and costs and benef... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 15 Feb 27 - Mar 5 Filter On
Date 2:49pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Sun
Feb 27 1:45pm NZD Trade Balance -25M -250M
3:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 4.1% 3.3%
3:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -1.5% -2.1%
4:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.3% 0.2%
6:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 29.5
Mon
Feb 28 2:00am EUR CPI y/y 2.4% 2.4%
2:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.2% 1.1%
5:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 16 No QE3 Right - So Why Did The USD Just Hit A New Cyclical Low? Citi Explains
Why
Submitted by Tyler Durden
If you are confused why at one point every word the Chairman said was the
equivalent of one pip lower for the DXY and 10 cents higher for gold, wonder
no more. Here is Citi's Steven Englander asking, and explaining why the USD
just hit a new cyclical low.
From Citi's Steven Englander
Asset markets pretty much liked the FOMC statement and really liked the
press conference, but that's not the... 阅读全帖 |
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c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 17 从这次FOMC minutes 看，全体一致同意 money policy tightening. QE3 不可能。
从这次FOMC minutes 看，大本认为 GDP 1.8% 是 "transitory", 下半年会好。
再看看发展，就明了。 |
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c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 18 It was a bull market during 9.2010 to 4.2011 period by all measures. After
the FOMC meeting in April, a first-ever news conference was held. All bad
news we heard today were well communicated during the conference. The FOMC
minutes also comfirmed that.
In May, the market little changed. So
Bulls said: "The market is drifting lower."
Bears asked: "Why is the market holding so well?"
Frogs like myself said: "Let's take a summer vacation." |
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s********s
发帖数: 259 | 19 Goldman Cuts GDP View to 2% as Economy Weakens
Faced with the bruising headwinds of high unemployment, weak manufacturing
and an otherwise listless economy, Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast
for gross domestic product.
The firm cut its second-quarter GDP outlook to 2 percent from 3 percent, a
stunning blow for an economy expected to be well on the path to recovery
following the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
From a policy standpoint, Goldman said it does not expect the subpar growth
to ... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 20 明天不是FOMC press release吗？
怎么大家都关心今晚希腊vote.难道FOMC现在都变non-event了？ |
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g********5
发帖数: 10335 | 21 下面介绍一组在美国使用的经济指标。当然，在其它发达经济体（例如，德国、英国、
日本等）中也存在着许多别的经济指标。 一般来说，指标的实际数据值很重要，市场
对该指标的预期和展望、预期数据与实际数据的差别也十分重要。
世界上绝大多数交易者都会在交易时采用这些宏观指标。 所发表数据的“质
量”或影响力可能在不同时间有所不同。 如果指标数据代表了新信息或者据此数据能
得出其它报告或数据无法得出的结论，那么该指标数据就是十分重要的.另外，如果人
们可以用某个指标来更好地预测未来趋势，那么这个指标就是极具价值的。
CCI - 消费者信心指数（Consumer Confidence Index） [高]
美国会议委员会会在每个月的最后一个星期二,美国东部时间早上10:00公布当月数据
CCI是从5,000个美国家庭的抽样调查中得出，是反映消费者信心强弱的最准确
指标。消费者信心指数表明，当经济能确保带来更多的工作机会、更高的工资和较低的
利率时，消费者的信心和购买力就会增加。 受访者回答的问题包括其收入状况，对当
前市场的看法以及增加收入的可能性。信心指数是美联储决... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 22 1,2,5都出现了。
FOMC meeting 今天出了其中一个民间猜测的政策之一，改“extended period"的
language,改成“through mid 2013". 基本面上来说，这是很糟糕的， 意思是说Fed现
在觉得经济到mid 2013年都不会明显健康成长。
但是昨天的panic，加上现在有不少股票已经跌到了所谓bargain/value investors的目
标之内，借机rally是可以理解的。
不过这些都是短暂的。最重要的是什么能够改变growth path.现在主要是要靠政府了。
4.再加一些stimulative政策，譬如tax incentives to repatriate profits from
overseas, tax incentives to hire, tax incentive to make capital expenditure,
etc..
1. 明天的non-farm payroll.不过这将是很短暂的。
2. FOMC meeting 的set up. 假如fed有任何stimulate的意思，market可以借机ra... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****e
发帖数: 107 | 23 肯定没经历过2008年. 07年低到08年FOMC, 碰到过很多次类似的.
最经典的一次是07年11月那次FOMC, 大本讲完话后猛跌了300点收盘.
早上高开300点，收盘又全部跌回去. |
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t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 24 教授出来告别啦。
最后一预测果然如大家提醒的晚节不保。不过名声也无所谓了，说实话，我也不图这个
，而且早就说要走了。
问题倒是，害得大家亏钱了，对此我诚挚道歉。亏了钱的请来报道，我的包子发完为止
，回帖的第一个人发三个包子，然后方便的话麻烦帮我发一下吧。谢谢了！
今天数据喜忧参半，失业人数高涨，CPI抬头，顽疾仍然存在；主要工业生产还不错，
Business Conditions Index却依然是负值。但是市场已经不管不顾了。这让我想起了
上个FOMC meeting前的情形。市场仍然抱有强烈希望无论是QE还是可能是反方向的OT或
是其他什么经济刺激计划的出现。
我现在的解释就是：
一只眼睛里望着饭盆的饿狗，是棒子也打不走的。此时的它对于痛觉已经不敏感了。而
饭盆里的到底是排骨，青菜，还是石头，只有打开的那一刹那才会知晓。
今早我的TZA已经出了，因为昨天入点低，所以赔倒是没有，Rimm也如期的很卖力的忿
然跳崖。其实，发现市场的动态和尊重市场是用以保身的明哲之举。这个当然也是小股
民转身快的便利所在。
既然已晚节不保，也无妨继续不保下去了，个人认为大本说话前会有个先拉再摔的过程
，... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 25 嘿嘿， 你以为buffet真是跑出来做活雷锋的？
制造新闻效应托市， 托的就是大盘， msm的新闻也是筛选过的， 只不过现在网路传媒
发达了， 有所收敛而已。
多经历几次fomc之类的重大消息发布前后的操作， 就知道， “大盘”和“势”， 是
不是也可以操作的了。
就拿上次的fomc meeting来说吧， news released了15分钟没动静， 不是经济规律起
作用吗？ 为什么结果出来了还不行动？ 信号枪一响， 万马奔腾。 |
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S****X
发帖数: 2301 | 26
关键是明天FOMC，绝大部分MM都不可能知道FOMC的细节，那今天这么跌，会是洗盘么？ |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 28 大摩预计QE3将3-6月启动额度5000至7500亿
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年01月05日 22:02 新浪财经微博
新浪财经讯 北京时间1月5日晚间消息，摩根士丹利分析师莱恩哈特(Vincent
Reinhart)报告指出，预计第三轮量化宽松措施(QE3)将在今年3到6月份间启动，美联储
将采购5000亿至7500亿的国债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)。
莱恩哈特表示，近来美国一系列的强劲经济数据得益于2011年初日本地震和能源价
格上涨的不利影响逐渐消退，一旦这方面的推动彻底消失，财政紧缩的影响浮现，2012
年初美国经济的增长率可能降至2%左右。
莱恩哈特指出，由此美联储可能将被迫下调经济增长和通胀预期，经济减速可能使
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)相信，必须化解就业最大化和稳定物价双重使命的下行风险
。但是，鉴于《联储法》对如何权衡这些目标之间相互关系的界定不太清晰，FOMC内部
对它们的相对权重还存在不同意见，而伯南克正致力于使决策过程更为民主化，再次启
动QE的过程可能比较慢，同时可能充满争议和妥协。
尽管如此，莱恩哈特最终的结论是，大摩预... 阅读全帖 |
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g8
发帖数: 3784 | 29 Monday
Earnings: Halliburton, Texas Instruments, Kansas City Southern
Tuesday
Earnings: Apple, DuPont, Johnson and Johnson, McDonald’s, Verizon,
Travelers, Coach, Kimberly-Clark, Yahoo, AMD, Norfolk Southern
10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Survey
1:00 p.m. 2-year note auction
FOMC begins 2-day meeting
President Obama gives State of Union address
Wednesday
Earnings: Boeing, ConocoPhillips, United Technologies, SAP, Motorola
Solutions, Corning, Amgen, ETrade, Murphy Oil, Netflix, Delta Airlines,
Occidenta... 阅读全帖 |
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i*u
发帖数: 299 | 30 Stocks rose gradually back by the positive economic data. Even though
January retail sales were slightly disappointed, other data continued to
indicate healthy recovery signs: initial claims surprisingly fell to multi-
year lows (348k vs. 368k est.), meantime the home builders' index (29 vs. 26
est.) and housing starts (699k vs. 688k est.) both reached new high after
the financial crisis. On the fixed income front, bonds faced pressure toward
the recent FOMC minutes as less members were favored ... 阅读全帖 |
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t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 31 这周的几个主要数据，可能全部，或大部分miss，包括retail sails，jobless claim
，PPI，industrial production。
同时这次fomc于本月出台QE的可能性非常小。大盘短期内回调的意愿非常强烈。
每个人意见都有偏向性，仅希望大家可以注意自己的仓位，在充分考虑后做适当调整。
我会在今天收盘前建部分空仓，在明日fomc结果出来后考虑是否重仓做空。 |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 32 从现在起一路阴跌到FOMC；
然后威逼大本印炒。
如果不答应，那就拉上去说经济好转不需要了；然后选举的时候把欧洲猪祭出来把大盘
往死里砸！
如果答应了，１５００见，你好我好大家都好。
所以结论是，FOMC后一定会涨。 |
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i*u
发帖数: 299 | 33 Stock market finished slightly higher this past week as corporate earnings
continued to outpace analysts' estimate. Although we are just two weeks into
the earnings season, investors may turn back their focus into the economic
fundamental ,where initial claims continued to exceed forecasts for 9
consecutive weeks, which are becoming a concern as the next employment data
is approaching. While data remained weak on both jobs and housings front
last week, the Treasury yield curve took a small step... 阅读全帖 |
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s******g
发帖数: 67 | 34 new script:
* down to 135.5 from now
* bounce back to 136.5 before FOMC meeting anouncement
* then down hard after FOMC |
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g8
发帖数: 3784 | 35 FOMC Meeting Announcement
12:30 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
Chairman Press Conference
2:15 PM ET |
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q****g
发帖数: 761 | 36 FOMC Minutes
Highlights
The latest FOMC minutes for the June 19-20 focused on the conditional with
the word "if" being the key focus. That is, the Fed is holding steady but
stating that the Fed will take additional action as appropriate. A few
participants said additional accommodation is needed to boost job growth and
price stability (prevent deflation). However, several stated that they see
Operation Twist having only a modest impact. Basically, the minutes show no
additional probability of QE... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 37 【 以下文字转载自 MoneyFriends 俱乐部 】
发信人: waitfortaxi (土人), 信区: MoneyFriends
标 题: Re: 土神能给我们讲讲大盘走势么？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 27 17:03:35 2012, 美东)
I am not sure the effect of FOMC meeting. And I do not expect anything come
out of that meeting either.
So my suggestion is holding your long position until Monday and cut all
your long positions before the FOMC announcement next Wed. |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 38 大盘这周戏剧性的走势一切都是源于两个重量级的会议FOMC,ECB
ECB，FOMC的双重失望让市场dip了，今天的ECB 大嘴出来clear the doubt，市场又疯
狂的反扑，however job report的好转让年底之前的QE3几乎成泡影，而下周的ECB
follow up具体咋样，市场还在继续观望中。
所以如果一切如愿的话，下周我们看到SPY back to 140.8，然后有个big sell off.
YMYD |
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k**********i
发帖数: 8706 | 39 给大家转篇文，就事论事，大家看看出场人物有哪些
The Coming Resolution in . . . Everything
from The Big Picture by James Bianco
The quiet summer is about to give way to a three week period that will
settle a lot of things. Consider:
• Right now the odds of Obama winning the election are 56% on
Intrade. According to Gallup, his approval rating is still below 50%. So
Obama does not have a comfortable lead. This week is the Republican
convention began. A week later is the Democratic convention. If history is a
gu... 阅读全帖 |
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w**********o
发帖数: 1421 | 40 12:30 p.m. – FOMC announcement
2:00 p.m. – FOMC forecasts
2:00 p.m. – U.S. Treasury budget
2:15 p.m. – Fed Chairman’s press conference
4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply
http://247wallst.com/2012/09/12/247-wall-st-closing-bell-septem
Read more: 24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell — September 12, 2012: Markets Get No
Traction from Germany’s Decision (AAPL, KMI, POT, RENN, PSX, DG, ADP, PLL,
SCMR, UEC, SABA, LRN, PIR, SHLD, SHOSR, FB, ODP, JVA, HK, MNST) - 24/7 Wall
St. http://247wallst.com/201... 阅读全帖 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 41 http://seekingalpha.com/article/868661-enough-already-with-the-
When Ben Bernanke became chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006 he promised
a significant change. The Fed would be much more "transparent" in letting
markets and the public know more about its inner workings, its concerns, its
internal debates, its potential decisions. He has certainly kept his
promise.
But sometimes I yearn for the days of former Fed chairmen Paul Volcker and
Alan Greenspan, who revealed nothing of what the Fed wa... 阅读全帖 |
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m*s
发帖数: 6855 | 42 这波rally的广度和深度都出乎我的意料，现在稍稍复盘一下，顺便理清思路。
Fiscal cliff虚晃一枪是预料到的，没想到的是这个rally可以撑那么久，而且上两周有
一天爆量40点的血珠子竟然那么快就拉回来，还冲了新高。
回想一下上周的单日大跌是因为Fed minutes说可能会提前结束QE，提高利率。之后的拉
起是因为伯南克在国会山做testification给了大家定心丸。综上所述，现在这个股市还
是看Fed脸色在走。
所以这周五的就业数据很重要了，这直接影响3/19-20的FOMC会议的讨论和结果。虽然伯
南克testification说了就业不会很快好转，但这也就是个预测，一旦NFP/unemploymen
t rate数据变好，慢慢减缓甚至停止QE就是眨眼的功夫。
如果这周五的就业很差，那么走法倒是比较容易猜，就是先暴跌一周，真可能去zijing
说的1440，随后随着FOMC临近再慢慢拉起，就业数据不好就迫使Fed保持宽松政策，加上
4月的ER季到来，SPX冲历史新高顺理成章。
如果这周五的就业普通或较好，那真不知道该怎么走，很迷惑。大盘现在这个状态是有
调整的需求的... 阅读全帖 |
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r*********5
发帖数: 2183 | 43 美联储：警惕信贷风险和资产泡沫
2013年05月09日 04:41 新浪财经
新浪财经讯 北京时间5月9日凌晨消息，据美联储下属联邦咨询委员会(Federal
Advisory Council)2月份会议纪要显示，该委员会曾警告美联储理事称，创纪录的刺激
性措施正促使金融机构冒更多的信贷风险，并正在美国农田价格领域中创造出泡沫。
在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)1月29日到30日之间的货币政策制定会议过后，
联邦咨询委员会在2月8日召开了会议。据此次会议的纪要显示，该委员会指出：“低利
率环境给金融机构带来的利润率压力，再加上大幅增长的遵循及其他基础设施成本，已
经导致许多金融 机构通过接受更大的利率或信贷风险的方式来寻求更高的回报。”
联邦咨询委员会在2月份对美联储继续实施“量化宽松”政策表示支持，但同时指
出实施这项政策将带来一些风险。该委员会称：“我们相信美国经济正在改善，但仍旧
容易受到损害；我们也认识到，美联储的信息搜集和分析资源具有很高的质量。我们继
续支持联邦公开 市场委员会当前宽松的货币政策。”
联邦咨询委员会的会议纪要对其12名委员的观点转变进行了追踪，这些委员... 阅读全帖 |
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s****8
发帖数: 2537 | 44 On Tap Next Week:
MONDAY: Empire state mfg survey, Treasury int'l capital, housing market
index, G8 mtg, credit card default rates
TUESDAY: Consumer price index, housing starts, FOMC mtg begins; Earnings
from Adobe Systems, La-Z-Boy
WEDNESDAY: MBA mortgage applications, oil inventories, FOMC mtg announcement
& forecasts, Bernanke press conference; Earnings from FedEx, Jabil Circuit,
Red Hat
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, PMI manufacturing index, existing home sales,
Philadelphia Fed survey, leading i... 阅读全帖 |
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k********f
发帖数: 6033 | 45 *BERNANKE: FOMC MAY `MODERATE' PACE OF PURCHASES LATER IN 2013
*BERNANKE SAYS FED MAY END PURCHASES AROUND MID-YEAR 2014
*BERNANKE SAYS FED WILL EASE QE PACE IF ECONOMY IMPROVES
*BERNANKE SAYS PURCHASE REDUCTION REPRESENTS FOMC CONSENSUS |
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G*******1
发帖数: 6411 | 46 WEDNESDAY, JULY 31
8:15 am ADP employment July 200,000 185,000 198,000
8:30 am GDP 2Q 1.7% 1.0% 1.1%
8:30 am Employment cost index 2Q 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
9:45 am Chicago PMI July 52.3 54.0 51.6
2:00 pm FOMC announcement
下午两点fomc announcement again，早上的消息还好 |
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r*****b
发帖数: 310 | 47 why is tomorrow important?
Based on FOMC's 2013 schedule, the tapering decision should be made on the
September 17-18 meeting.
2013 FOMC Meetings
January 29-30 Statement Minutes: 294 KB PDF | HTML
(Released Feb 20, 2013)
March 19-20* Statement Press Conference
Projections Materials:
PDF | Accessible Materials Minutes: 369 KB PDF | HTML
(Released April 10, 2013)
April/May 30-1 Statement Minutes: 260 KB PDF | HTML
(Released May 22, 2013)
June 18-19*... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 48 The Fed first launched quantitative easing in November 2008 after efforts to
boost the economy by lowering interest rates failed. The first programme of
QE saw $600 billion injected into the economy by the Fed via mortgage-
backed securities and government-sponsored enterprises. This then increased
to $1.25 trillion as part of an expansion due to low initial impact. Again,
the Fed tried QE in November 2010 with another $600 billion invested in
longer term Treasury securities. When this still fai... 阅读全帖 |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 49 微信公众平台 usoptions
Today's US Research Highlights and Market Update
Market Intelligence – Morning Update
By Chris Hussey
Published 18 Mar 2014 6:43:46 am CDT
Stocks in Asia were mostly higher Tuesday as indices reacted to the
surprisingly bullish tone set in the US on the back of two potentially
troubling bits of news over the weekend: Ukraine and China FX band widening.
Japan's Nikkei saw the strongest gains as the yen devalued against the
dollar against a backdrop of relaxing tensions. But afte... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********e
发帖数: 268 | 50 感觉FOMC不应该和SCTY有太大关系，最近的FOMC对短期利率有较大影响，长期利率并没
有大的改变。相比较去年的利率是真的大涨，没见对SCTY有影响。
说起来SCTY这种股完全是MM说了算，谈基本面感觉意义都不大 |
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