B*********e
发帖数: 2313 | 1 刚在搜狐上看完一部片"替天行道" (Frailty) 看完很是纠结 我很少在看电影时我
的前后立场完全不同的 但随着故事的发展 我竟由天平的一边蘯到另一边 这部片的
前后大逆转是令人意外的
三个主角(爸爸带着两个儿子)演得真好 到底Fraility指的是什麽? 想一想 这是很
有意思的一部片
请基督徒或非基督徒看此片之后来谈谈 因为真的有很多东西可以谈 |
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i***i
发帖数: 800 | 2 谢谢推荐。我正在看。
刚在搜狐上看完一部片"替天行道" (Frailty) 看完很是纠结 我很少在看电影时我
的前后立场完全不同的 但随着故事的发展 我竟由天平的一边蘯到另一边 这部片的
前后大逆转是令人意外的
三个主角(爸爸带着两个儿子)演得真好 到底Fraility指的是什麽? 想一想 这是很
有意思的一部片
请基督徒或非基督徒看此片之后来谈谈 因为真的有很多东西可以谈 |
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i***i
发帖数: 800 | 3 这，就是一部灵异电影而已，包袱在男主角抓住FBI警员的手的时候就抖出来了。灵异，
科幻，特异功能。。。
谢谢推荐。我正在看。
刚在搜狐上看完一部片"替天行道" (Frailty) 看完很是纠结 我很少在看电影时我
的前后立场完全不同的 但随着故事的发展 我竟由天平的一边蘯到另一边 这部片的
前后大逆转是令人意外的
三个主角(爸爸带着两个儿子)演得真好 到底Fraility指的是什麽? 想一想 这是很
有意思的一部片
请基督徒或非基督徒看此片之后来谈谈 因为真的有很多东西可以谈 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 4 Link:
http://www.walmart.com/ip/12510507
Years after terrorizing a small Texas community, the God's Hand Killer has
returned - leaving in his wake a perplexing trail of fear and death.
Convinced that he knows the killer's identity, Fenton Meiks shows up at FBI
Headquarters, intent on putting an end to the murderous rampage and
relieving his conscience of his family's sinister secrets.
Audio Commentary , "Anatomy of a Scene" Featurette Courtesy of Sundance
Channel, "The Making of Frailty" Feature... 阅读全帖 |
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A*******s
发帖数: 3942 | 5
the
我说的可能不够详细。
最简单的处理recurrent event的AG model就认为correlation完全被time dependent
covariates解释了(如果搞不定的，再上其他的frailty/stratified...)。
frailty/random effect可以用来model subject-specific effect, 相对于model没有
frailty/random effect而言，bias是减少的。但相对于fixed effect 而言，bias增加
了，variance减少了。
你的理解是怎么样的？
顺便问一句，大
对于internal predictor来说，实际上还是把它当成time independent的。先不说fair
lending的要求，我们一般要预测的是“如果我看到一个人今天没结婚，那么一年内他
破产的概率是多少”。我们用的其实是observed value at timespot，完全time
independent...
external的好办，最简单的就是单独搞个time series的来预测它然后plug ... 阅读全帖 |
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A*******s
发帖数: 3942 | 6 depends...
for AG models with time dependent variable, you have to also forecast the
future paths of these independent variables.
For frailty models, could plug in the empirical Bayes estimate of the
frailty term into the prediction.
And, more meaningful prediction is on the density rather than survival time.
can
time |
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y**3
发帖数: 267 | 7 thanks! Danou!
I did some research on repeated events survial model. As you said, a shared
frailty model fits my purpose well.
I have a question for what you said-For frailty models, could plug in the
empirical Bayes estimate of the prediction. Does this mean for time varying(
dependnet) covariates, that I dont need forecast their future path when
scoring to the near future?
thanks again
time. |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 8 (1) James Kunge, The Cracks in Beijing's Edifice. Financial Times, Oct 10,
2011 (title in print).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0
/a83e5cf4-f02c-11e0-977b-00144feab49a.html
Quote:
"The central frailty [of China] is financial. At no time over the past three
decades of 'reform and opening' has Beijing’s control over the supply and
price of credit in its economy been so tenuous.
"it [China] tried to keep interest rates as low as possible, partly to
reduce the service charges on local government debt, now... 阅读全帖 |
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D*V
发帖数: 3096 | 9 http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.fr/2013/12/are-chinese-cheat
by Andreas Schleicher
Deputy Director for Education and Skills and Special Advisor on Education
Policy to the OECD's Secretary General
Whenever an American or European wins an Olympic gold medal, we cheer them
as heroes. When a Chinese does, the first reflex seems to be that they must
have been doping; or if that’s taking it too far, that it must have been
the result of inhumane training.
There seem to be parallels to this in educat... 阅读全帖 |
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s**e
发帖数: 1523 | 10 倒了吧？莎翁说，Frailty,thy name is woman! 也就是，软弱啊，你的名字是女人。 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 11 Setting sail for Libya
http://www.economist.com/blogs/asiaview/2011/03/chinas_foreign_
FOR a fast rising power, China remains unusually shy about military
deployment beyond its shores. But its decision to dispatch four military
transport aircraft to Libya and a guided-missile frigate to waters nearby
suggests that it might be rethinking its posture. The Ilyushin-76 aircraft
took off from the far western region of Xinjiang on February 28th bound for
the Libyan city of Sabha. The ship, Xuzhou, whi... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 Parenting 讨论区 】
发信人: liangmaomao (拿不到tenure就杀人的生物AP), 信区: Parenting
标 题: I'm sorry, my mom deserves the truth
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 18 21:37:14 2012, 美东)
小中男参军为何自杀？
临死前为何写下： my mom deserves the truth？
Why he is being repeated called racial slurs like "gook," “chink” and “
dragon lady"？
以下为Jeff Yang文章,后面美国人的讨论并没有多少同情。
-----------------------------------------------------
http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/17/opinion-what-the-deat
--------------------------------------------------... 阅读全帖 |
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t**g
发帖数: 784 | 13 http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.fr/2013/12/are-chinese-cheat
by Andreas Schleicher
Deputy Director for Education and Skills and Special Advisor on Education
Policy to the OECD's Secretary General
Whenever an American or European wins an Olympic gold medal, we cheer them
as heroes. When a Chinese does, the first reflex seems to be that they must
have been doping; or if that’s taking it too far, that it must have been
the result of inhumane training.
There seem to be parallels to this in educat... 阅读全帖 |
|
o**********e
发帖数: 18403 | 14
re.
religion promotes investment in the commons.
In addition, religion could promote fair and trustworthy behaviors.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/02/12/fear-of-a-
vengeful-god-may-explain-humanitys-global-expansion/
monotheistic religion seems to be particularly good with this.
丑闻should be expected, monotheistic religion seems to be
particularly resistant to 丑闻. People seem to understand
the frailty of clergy while reflecting badly on the Church,
should not dest... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********r
发帖数: 19468 | 15 睁眼扯瞎话……
如果要spin不如换个角度，连刘300自己都反省了
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/world/asia/liu-xiaobo-china-nobel-
writings.html
In the epilogue to his 1990 book “Chinese Politics and China’s Modern
Intellectuals,” he wrote:
My tendency to idealize Western civilization arises from my nationalistic
desire to use the West in order to reform China. But this has led me to
overlook the flaws in Western culture — or, even if I see them, to set them
aside intentionally. I have not, therefore, been able to stand a... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 April 27, 2012 Posted by Warner Todd Huston
As far as race-baiter Roland Martin of CNN is concerned, America is guilty
until proven innocent. Guilty of racism as some sort of original sin, one
that can never be washed away by either deeds or absolution.
On April 26, Martin got his inner Je$$e Jack$on on and tweeted: “I simply
accept the reality that racism is in the DNA of America. And when that
button is pushed, the true feelings come tumbling out!”
Mark down Mr. Martin as another one of those... 阅读全帖 |
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a**********u
发帖数: 28450 | 17 我觉得你说得不对，你不能苛求我们男人床上床下都给力！Frailty, thy name is
woman!女人，请你在床上不要装女皇，颐指气使！ |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 18 小中男参军为何自杀？
临死前为何写下： my mom deserves the truth？
Why he is being repeated called racial slurs like "gook," “chink” and “
dragon lady"？
以下为Jeff Yang文章,后面美国人的讨论并没有多少同情。
-----------------------------------------------------
http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/17/opinion-what-the-deat
-----------------------------------------------------
What the deaths of two soldiers say about anti-Asian bullying
by Jeff Yang
By Jeff Yang, Special to CNN
Two young soldiers, Private Danny Chen of Manhattan, New Yo... 阅读全帖 |
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t*********t
发帖数: 1058 | 19 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: lczlcz (lcz), 信区: USANews
标 题: 法国总统萨科齐说，10年前允许希腊加入欧元区是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 28 12:16:28 2011, 美东)
Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to take the shine off a day of jubilation in
financial markets at a deal to rescue the eurozone when he said it had been
an "error" to allow Greece to join the euro a decade ago.
As further protests took placein Athens the French president appealed for
the public to back reforms intended to maintain Greece's membership of the
single curr... 阅读全帖 |
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y******u
发帖数: 1123 | 20 生统方向，Longitudinal Biomarkers， Frailty Models，Survival Analysis
有兴趣给我邮箱，姓名，工作单位和简单介绍。我会推荐，但不一定得到 |
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e*******c
发帖数: 2133 | 21 "Frailty, thy name is woman" |
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a*o
发帖数: 25262 | 22 以前就听说过纽约的地震迟到了。纽约平均每一百年一大震，上一次 5 级震是 1884
年。震中在 Rockaways. 几个月前的报道又露面了：
3/17/11 By Rolando Pujol
New York seen as overdue for significant earthquake
_gen/derivatives/display_576/image.jpg
It’s seen as something of a New York City bragging right: We don’t have to
worry about earthquakes.
While we shouldn’t be shaking in our boots, we also must avoid sticking our
heads in the sand when it comes to seismic risks, experts advise. In the
aftermath of the Japan earthquake, scientists caution that New ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 23 【 以下文字转载自 Parenting 讨论区 】
发信人: liangmaomao (拿不到tenure就杀人的生物AP), 信区: Parenting
标 题: I'm sorry, my mom deserves the truth
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 18 21:37:14 2012, 美东)
小中男参军为何自杀？
临死前为何写下： my mom deserves the truth？
Why he is being repeated called racial slurs like "gook," “chink” and “
dragon lady"？
以下为Jeff Yang文章,后面美国人的讨论并没有多少同情。
-----------------------------------------------------
http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/17/opinion-what-the-deat
--------------------------------------------------... 阅读全帖 |
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k****a
发帖数: 7077 | 24 虽然以帮主在篮球史上的地位，他杀个人可能人们都会原谅他(夸张了哈哈），但是这片报道彻底地暴露了他名人堂讲话的猥琐与无趣，远没有他在篮球场上的光明与磊落：
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...yhoo&type=lgns
SPRINGFIELD, Mass. – The tears tumbled, flooding his face and Michael
Jordan had yet to march to the microphone at Symphony Hall. He had listened
to the genuine stories and speeches of a remarkable class. He had watched a
“This is Your Life” video compilation of his basketball genius. Everything
flashed before him, a legacy that he’s fought with body and soul to neve... 阅读全帖 |
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i*********5
发帖数: 19210 | 25 Written by: Dan Empfield
Date: Fri Oct 26 2012
http://www.slowtwitch.com/Opinion/The_Entire_Lance_Armstrong_31
I don't know who introduced Lance Armstrong to performance enhancers. There
are two likely suspects who come to mind, but they're my private guesses.
I did not ask Lance when I visited him earlier this year at his home. It's
not my business to know. He's not admitted to me that he doped. He is not
happy with me that I no longer accept that he didn't dope. Now we don't
talk.
Rewind... 阅读全帖 |
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b***i
发帖数: 10018 | 26 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703673604575550133914934718.html
It's Time for Women to Run Faster
Boston's Crowded Marathon Prompts a Gender War; Why Females Get an Extra 30
Minutes
By KEVIN HELLIKER And DAVID BIDERMAN
If you're interested in running next year's Boston Marathon, you'd better
get set.
Race officials say the marathon's 21,000 prized slots, which used to take
six months to distribute, could be filled in a matter of days after
registration opens on Monday. In fact, ev... 阅读全帖 |
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wh
发帖数: 141625 | 28 来自主题: LeisureTime版 - 我怎么哭了 frailty, thy name is woman. 好像莎士比亚是这么说的。 |
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wh
发帖数: 141625 | 29 人都有软弱的时候，frailty, thy name is human...哈哈。 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 30 老莎的原文可是Frailty, thy name is woman啊…… |
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g*****y
发帖数: 1488 | 31 呵呵，我妈现在堕落到看美剧了，所以应该没的推荐的了。。。
不过刚刚在豆瓣上看‘也喜欢’类，居然意大利的《The Leopard》也在里面，（电影口碑不错，书的我印象也不错），把amzn上形容抄给你看吧，有点遥遥相对的 -
Set in the 1860s, The Leopard tells the spellbinding story of a decadent,
dying Sicilian aristocracy threatened by the approaching forces of democracy
and revolution. The dramatic sweep and richness of observation, the
seamless intertwining of public and private worlds, and the grasp of human
frailty imbue The Leopard with its particular melancholy beauty and power,
and place it among t... 阅读全帖 |
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wh
发帖数: 141625 | 32 生性软弱，被欺负得狠，急了跳河。frailty, thy name is man...小说里有一句话，
这年头，跳河的上吊的喝药的割脉的，男人比女人多，阴阳颠了倒；男人不行，得靠女
人撑。 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 33 methinks, frailty thy name is woman
me 看了一次哭了一次 |
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wh
发帖数: 141625 | 34 查了半天……的确是renowned and prosperous，出身高贵世家；而且the hero has to
be “virtuous” that is to say he has to be "a morally blameless man” (
article 82). wiki上的。
关于英雄的悲剧命运，wiki说his misfortune is brought about not by vice or
depravity, but by some error or frailty. 你引的这段后面说In the ideal
tragedy, claims Aristotle, the protagonist will mistakenly bring about his
own downfall—not because he is sinful or morally weak, but because he does
not know enough. 尼采在悲剧的诞生里说oedipus那么强壮聪明，却正是被他的聪明毁
灭，因为人的认知有限，自作聪明必然逆天（The sh... 阅读全帖 |
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f**g
发帖数: 2452 | 35 什么乱七八糟的，vulnerable都出来了
原文是frailty |
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|
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B*********e
发帖数: 2313 | 38 想一想 这片和李安的"少年派"是异曲同工 前面讲的与后面呈现的 到底那个是真的
这些人是疯了还是正常? 事实的真相是什么? 这片到底是捧基督教还是骂基督教?
这些人是天使还是demon? 基督徒快出来说话 无神论者也来发言吧
我先表态 先前我是不相信父亲和弟弟的 看完之后 我相信父亲和弟弟了 |
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d*****0
发帖数: 68029 | 39 有个片子叫Frailty的跟这个很相似。骗子忽悠和真实事情就在一线之间。 |
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d*****0
发帖数: 68029 | 40 有个片子叫Frailty的跟这个很相似。骗子忽悠和真实事情就在一线之间。 |
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b******l
发帖数: 81 | 41 这是一个悬疑片，挺烂的，我猜得到部分结果，但是没有猜得到全部。下面简述电影情
节。
有个雨夜，一个FBI探长被手下叫到办公室，因为有人来报告他在追查的案件的情况。
这是一个系列谋杀案，谋杀者自称上帝之手，杀了6个人了，但是除了第一个被害者，
其余都不见尸体，案情毫无线索。
探长在办公室里接见了报案者。这哥们介绍自己叫Fenton, 说所有的谋杀都是自己的弟
弟Adam干的。现在弟弟已经挂了，他要把弟弟埋到一个玫瑰园里。探长问他到底怎么回
事，为什么这么想。这哥们就慢慢地讲了自己家庭的背景。
他妈生他弟弟Adam的时候死了，他爸爸作为一个修车工，把他兄弟二人抚养长大。有一
天夜里，他爸突然把他兄弟俩叫醒，宣称自己见证了上帝，而且上帝对他说，他们是有
特殊任务的，要负责惩处恶魔。他爸第二天上班的路上还看到一道金光照向路边农田的
废弃小屋，在屋里得到了他认为上帝赐予他的武器，一把斧子和一双手套。后来又以类似
的方式得到一条钢管。他爸自认为这就是天使指引他得到的三样武器。
然后他爸开始出手了。他绑架了一个女的，但是他不认为这是个女人，他说这是一个恶
魔。他把恶魔带回家，摸了恶魔，然后抽筋一般地... 阅读全帖 |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 43 呵呵 不错 了却老汉心里一件疑惑
这片老汉在HBO看过 大概是从老大不肯杀人被关起来开始看的 看完了不敢相信自己看
了什么 还记得自己扭头问LD 我们刚才是跳到宗教台了吗？哈哈
后来一直想找来再看一遍 却不知道片名。终于知道了
典型宗教片吧。杀人狂爹临死时要小弟坚信神谕 小儿子比爹还虔诚 叫他杀哥就杀了
杀FBI也杀了 还大摇大摆深入办公室 果然最后没事儿
其实是批评他爹 他爹其实应该杀了老大 也不该杀警长 没事儿的 ：）所有证据都会毁
掉 警长也跟Hull一样 什么都记不起来啦 |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 44 按这个片子的思路 就算当年老大带着警长去看尸体 也会什么都看不到的 然后整个事
件就会一笑了之 结果被坑的爹暴跳起来砍了警长 你们都懂的 不信神的都得死 所以
爹的下场已经定了
他杀再多的恶魔都没事儿 流了一次无辜人的血 流血的罪就归到他头上了 而且吧 这时
候再扯什么“看到兄弟以前为党国效力的份上放过兄弟一次吧”也没有用 功过不相抵
各算各的 他一定得偿命
其实 就老大可怜 要是他不是那块料 他爹就不用带他干这活儿 也就不变态了 结果 大
天使非要带上他 所以 他后来变态也就是被导演的 真不能算到他自己头上 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 2577 | 46 问一下,你觉得the duskfall 咋样？
最近在听他们的Source和Frailty |
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l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 47 http://www.starla.org/articles/maker.htm
1. CHEAP TRICK: "I Want You To Want Me"
"They were really popular in Chicago and this song was on the radio once
every hour for months. I remember sitting in my backyard waiting for it to
come on. I think Robert Zander has an amazing voice. I'm from the whiny
school of singing myself. I like the version on ' Live At Budokan'. How many
albums are there with 10,000 Japanese girls screaming all over the place?
Think about it, they had something for everyone ... 阅读全帖 |
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s********m
发帖数: 281 | 48 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk/4003063.stm
We will be able to live to 1,000'
By Dr Aubrey de Grey
University of Cambridge
Aubrey de Grey: "The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already"
Life expectancy is increasing in the developed world. But Cambridge
University geneticist Aubrey de Grey believes it will soon extend
dramatically to 1,000. Here, he explains why.
Ageing is a physical phenomenon happening to our bodies, so at some
point in
the future, as medicine becomes more and more powe... 阅读全帖 |
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n********n
发帖数: 8336 | 49 Isaiah 45:7 and Amos 3:6
(Isaiah 45:7, KJV) - "I form the light, and create darkness: I make peace,
and create evil: I the LORD do all these things."
(Amos 3:6) - "Shall a trumpet be blown in the city, and the people not be
afraid? shall there be evil in a city, and the LORD hath not done it?"
Is God really the one who created evil? To answer the question we must first
look at how the word for evil, "rah," is used in the Bible, examine the
context of the Isaiah 45:7 passage, and look at other pa... 阅读全帖 |
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