T*********k
发帖数: 1621 | 1 I heard a story during past WSOP broadcast that a gambler won 40M bucks
during 70s (at that time, that kind of money well worth 100-200 M in today's
money) in 3 year, then the lost it all in next 2 years. 99% the gambler
will eventually take the same path.
Going broke is normal for those top players too. Tom Dwan said he never
broke before, maybe this time he is caught.
Hard to imange he still need to film High Stake Poker. If I were him, I will
quit playing poker for at least 3 -4 months if I l |
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d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 2 +ev gambler YES,
-ev gambler NO,
NIT YES YES YES.
recreational poker player (what is it?)YES.
poker pro, LAUGH WHEN DREAMING. |
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g**s
发帖数: 1114 | 3 http://detnews.com/article/20111206/METRO/112060424/Feds--Flint
Feds: Flint man withdrew $1.5M at Detroit casinos due to bank error
Robert Snell/ The Detroit News
Detroit— A Flint man won a different type of jackpot following a bank error
that let him make unlimited withdrawals from his account at Detroit casinos
, which he parlayed into a $1.5 million payday.
That's according to an indictment filed Tuesday in federal court.
Ronald Page, 56, was indicted on stealing bank funds after prosecutors ... 阅读全帖 |
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p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 5 谢谢梨叔，这个很有帮助。梨叔真是多才多艺。
不过，unfair gambler ruin 是假设输和赢的数目都是一个unit, 我这个情况输的
数目和赢得数目是不完全一样的，不过差的不多， 用unfair gambler ruin 的分析的结果
应该接近。
我用网上的ror caculator大概算了一下，大概需要30 个buyin 能把ror 降到5%. 但只是粗略计算。
problem |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 6 hehe, gambler always a gambler.
yesterday 1000 at $21, this morning, damn, then loaded another 1100 at $20.
60, .... damn, almost loaded another 2000 at $20.40 but didn't.
now at least even. |
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E*******r
发帖数: 520 | 7 TEN TIPS TO BEAT LIVE CASH GAMES
LIVE AID
BY ROSS JARVISNOVEMBER 2009
Training sites like CardRunners and PokerXFactor have a lot to answer for. A
few years ago, online poker rooms were swarming with fish readily handing
over their money on a daily basis. Unfortunately those days are over. While
you still might come across a dream table from time to time, it’s clear
that there’s been a gradual improvement online to the point that even at
lower limits such as $0.25/$0.50 you’ll find regular caree... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********k
发帖数: 1621 | 8 Have to give credit to NV Jiang for her heart and bravery to challenge
higher stake.
Looks like some myth need to be break up. If I lose money in lower stake, on
tilt, then I say to myself What the heck, I just play higher stake and
trying to get my money back. That, to be honest, to me is typical gambler
behavior. It never worked for me. I will never play a stake which I am
comfortable even I lose money.
But it obviously worked for NV Jiang. Looks like good players always have a
gambler inside. |
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r****t
发帖数: 396 | 9 著名的AMERICAN CASINO GUIDE.
刚从Vegas回来，里头的coupon，就用了一个(jubilee show的2 for 1)，其他的都没有
用。适合住bally's的朋友用（住ballys check in的时候也有这个jubilee的coupon 送
）。
18刀ebay买的。卖10刀含运费。PM if interested.
****************************
Coupon list:
All coupons expire late December 2010, except Bingo Cruise (8/1/10) and
Seminole Casino Hollywood (12/1/10).
* Coupons that are new/added/revised from 2009 are shown in RED
Colorado - Cripple Creek
* Play $30/Get $10 FREE at Gold Creek/Double Eagle Casino
* Earn 200 point... 阅读全帖 |
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H****S
发帖数: 1359 | 10 这个cabbie显然是离婚时间不长，因为从照片看他子女岁数也不是很大。穿衣注重讲究
，说明年轻时候可能也是号人物，但是正如sherlock所说，缺少长远规划，很有可能是
属于那种喜欢冒险并且运气比较好的人。但是最后越赌越大，最后导致破产，只能去开
cab。他老婆自然是好日子过惯了，反差一大，离婚时不可避免的。这也是他为什么只
保留照片中孩子的部分，把前妻的部分给剪掉了。
once a gambler, always a gambler. Sherlock抓住赌徒的特有心理肯定药丸不可能是
两个都有毒。但是即便两个药丸有区别，又怎么能判定哪个有毒，哪个无毒？王安石的
小儿子王雱小时候被人问对面两个动物孰为獐，孰为鹿。在没有先验的条件下，王雱的
回答是：鹿旁边是獐，獐旁边是鹿。Sherlock的情况与此类似，不同的是不能这么打马
虎眼过关了。 |
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s**t
发帖数: 301 | 11
Yes.
I choose none of them. Definitely those 11 students are not worth to be
USTCers. This 607 student is not adventurous(positive) but gambler(negtive).
USTC should discourage gambler and I don't think he will fit USTC (with 0.1%
exception).
Moreover you must consider future recruiting. With 607 as admission line this
year, how hard it will be to recruit high-score students next year? Most of
them don't know USTC well and just read previous admission line of each
shcool.
It will be very hard t |
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z****o
发帖数: 59 | 12 认识一个转行成了professional gambler的, 现在是各赌场的超级贵客，年税后纯收入
十万左右。具体细节就不说了，免得人家抱怨我嘴大。不过可以透露的是，成为
professional gambler不难，比转专业容易。 |
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B*********h
发帖数: 800 | 13 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
QuantCareer (QuantCareer) 于 (Fri Aug 10 12:18:14 2007) 提到:
We should always remember that the finance industry is really just a
glorified version of the big casino: you always have winners and losers, and
sometimes gambling goes well for everyone (save for the house) while other
times even the most skilled gamblers lose.
Many years ago, a relative of mine was one huge gambler in HK. Then one
week he lost everything, so he jumped to his death from a h |
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a***s
发帖数: 616 | 14 Yes. Gambler's Ruin.
For the second one, the idea is the same: find a martingale.
One candidate is that e^{-2*m*X_t}, where X_t = m*t + B_t with B_t a
standard Brownian Motion. By Ito's formula, this is a martingale.
Then by standard argument for Gambler's Ruin, you can get the result.
The general solution for hitting a before b is
( 1 - e^{-2*m*b} ) / ( e^{-2*m*a} - e^{-2*m*b} ).
Here the BM is assumed to start in the interval [a,b] (or [b,a], does not
matter whic is larger).
dx |
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d***u
发帖数: 19 | 15 和gambler ruin不太一样。gambler ruin的停止条件是资产为0，或到达某一个给定值。
这道题的停止条件是资产为0，或者赌博次数达到100。所以不知道怎么算呢。 |
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c**********s
发帖数: 295 | 17 price of this option is $0.6, totally model independent. you can solve it by
two ways, one is to set up a hedge, 1/100 of a share, the other is to think
of this as gambler' ruin.
using gambler's ruin, it also gives the option of hitting a lower strike is
$1 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 19 1. In the situation a gambler has 1% edge over casino, if he bet more than 1
% of his total capital for each bet, he will lose his total capital at some
point, even he has a probability advantage.
Let's say if a gambler has 99% probability, should he bet 100% of his
capital for each of his bets? Obviously no, since he will lose his total capital
in 100 bets(theoreratically), the one he lose out of 100 will cost him all
his money, no matter how much he win before.So how much he should bet each
ti |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 20 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: powerforward (今天你敏感詞了沒有), 信区: Military
标 题: TG展示力量：上海取消聖帕節遊行
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Mar 3 22:20:59 2011, 美东)
China Tightens Controls on Foreign Press
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/world/asia/04china.html?_r=1&
Shiho Fukada for The New York Times
A police officer, left, filmed a foreign journalist as street cleaners swept
water to keep passersby moving and a plain clothes officer, right, watched
pedestrians on Sunday along Wangfujing Street in Beijing, where a pro... 阅读全帖 |
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F*******o
发帖数: 287 | 21 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: FlyingBro (北美飞哥), 信区: Military
标 题: Official: Riders say NYC bus crash driver swerved
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 13 21:40:07 2011, 美东)
NEW YORK – Passengers and witnesses to a horrific crash that sheared the
top off a bus and killed 14 people told investigators that the driver's
account of getting clipped by a tractor-trailer didn't match up to what they
felt and saw before the vehicle slid off the road and into a sign pole.
Driver Ophadell Williams had told police th... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 22 (1) David Pierson, Visiting the US From China Means a Long Visa Wait. Los
Angeles Times, Oct 14, 2011.
http://www.latimes.com/business
/la-fi-china-visas-20111013,0,6102782.story
Quote:
"The Chinese put up with a lot living in the world's most populous country:
standing on over-crowded trains for 40 hours; sleeping outside hospitals to
secure a doctor's appointment; waiting more than a year to earn a driver's
license. Add getting a U.S. entry visa to the list.
"Though Brazilian demand for U.S. ... 阅读全帖 |
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x****u
发帖数: 12955 | 23 mathmetics and statistics are the foundation. Bluffing and strong mind
builds on the foundation. That foundation is the difference between a
player and a gambler |
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H***N
发帖数: 373 | 24 This is not the key issue. The key issue is what is the penalty to those
gamblers? You know, people can quickly disappear if they are bankrupt. |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 25 You are a gambler la. I won't go. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 26 China Tightens Controls on Foreign Press
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/world/asia/04china.html?_r=1&
Shiho Fukada for The New York Times
A police officer, left, filmed a foreign journalist as street cleaners swept
water to keep passersby moving and a plain clothes officer, right, watched
pedestrians on Sunday along Wangfujing Street in Beijing, where a protest
had been called.
By SHARON LaFRANIERE
Published: March 3, 2011
BEIJING — Apparently unnerved by an anonymous Internet campaign urging... 阅读全帖 |
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F*******o
发帖数: 287 | 27 NEW YORK – Passengers and witnesses to a horrific crash that sheared the
top off a bus and killed 14 people told investigators that the driver's
account of getting clipped by a tractor-trailer didn't match up to what they
felt and saw before the vehicle slid off the road and into a sign pole.
Driver Ophadell Williams had told police that his World Wide Travel bus was
hit just as it crossed the New York City line early Saturday on a trip from
the Mohegan Sun casino in in Connecticut.
But passenge... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 28 (1) Wendell Minnick, U.S. Congress Pushes for Taiwan F-16s With TAMA.
Defense News, Sept 13, 2011.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=7664732&c=AIR&s=TOP
("Taiwan also has some of the best-trained F-16 pilots in the world. Taiwan'
s 21st Tactical Fighter Squadron ('Gamblers') has been based at Luke Air
Force Base, Ariz., since the 1990s for training")
(2) 美参议员促奥巴马售台新型战机. BBC Chinese, Sept 13, 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp
/world/2011/09/110913_us_taiwan_arms.shtml
("这项尚未经过议会辩论的军售议案... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 29 流传很久的是， 米犹有建立world government的计划， 毁灭单个的国家政府， 而把
全世界置于米犹的控制之下。
这和正在发生的事情非常相似。
GEORGE SOROS AND THE ROTHSCHILD CONNECTION
Who was George Soros?
[H: Better yet: Who IS this man? Meet one of the most prominent of the
players in your downfall. He very much ‘was’ but he also IS and did, in
fact wreck the economy of Southeast Asia in very short order. He is a top
player in such as Bilderbergers and all the other controlling groups while
doing nothing “illegal”. But then no one can do anything illegal i... 阅读全帖 |
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l**i
发帖数: 8144 | 30 简单地讲 就是谋事在人 成事在天
认为社会发展沿着某个预定方向发展的理论 都是傻逼理论
--------------------------------------
Anthropic principle
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In astrophysics and cosmology, the anthropic principle is the philosophical
argument that observations of the physical Universe must be compatible with
the conscious life that observes it. Some proponents of the argument reason
that it explains why the Universe has the age and the fundamental physical
constants necessary to accommodate conscious life. As a ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 31 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: ldy (我不是老大爷), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: 论金山词霸和有道里的《柯林斯双解》词典的失败之处
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 25 16:30:08 2013, 美东)
我们来看"cast"这个词，这个词是google今天刚推出的用电视看视频的小设备，叫
chromecast，刚一出来amazon上就被预定一空。
这个玩意的大概意思就是你在手机或者tablet上找到的视频，比如youtube或者netflix
，想在电视上放，那你只要一点cast那个按钮，就自动传到电视上开始播放了。
那么这里的cast是什么意思呢？如果你不太清楚，去查金山词霸或者有道词典，首先映
入眼帘的是这几条解释：
1. N-COUNT-COLL 可数集合名词(戏剧、电影的)全体演员 The cast of a play or
film is all the people who act in it. The show is very amusing and the cast
are very good. 演... 阅读全帖 |
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 32 这么经典的帖子没人回？看经济学家观点，你需要知道他们是干什么的，以什么为生。
Most People Are Paid To Be Optimistic。下面引用一段我最尊敬的经济学家之一的
话;
This raises the question: just what is a speculative bubble? The Oxford
English Dictionary defines a bubble as “anything fragile, unsubstantial,
empty, or worthless; a deceptive show. From 17th c. onwards often applied to
delusive commercial or financial schemes.” The problem is that words like
“show” and “scheme” suggest a deliberate creation, rather than a
widespread social phenomenon that is not... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********d
发帖数: 9770 | 33 论林彪反党集团的社会基础
On the Social Basis of the Lin Piao Anti-Party Clique
姚文元
by Yao Wen-yuan
[This article is reprinted from Peking Review, #10, March 7, 1975, pp. 5-10.]
毛主席在讲到必须搞清楚无产阶级对资产阶级专政的问题时明确指出：“林彪一类如上
台，搞资本主义很容易。因此，要多看点马列主义的书。”这就提出了一个极其重要的
问题：即“林彪一类”的阶级本质是什么？林彪反党集团产生的社会基础是什么？把这
个问题弄清楚，对于巩固无产阶级专政、防止资本主义复辟，对于坚定地执行党在社会
主义历史阶段的基本路线，一步一步地造成资产阶级既不能存在也不能再产生的条件，
无疑是十分必要的。
SPEAKING of the necessity for a clear understanding of the question of the
proletariat exercising dictatorship over the bourgeoisi... 阅读全帖 |
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h*******k
发帖数: 975 | 34 爹是赌徒加酗酒，whitetrash
Clinton says he remembers his stepfather as a gambler and an alcoholic who
regularly abused his mother and half-brother, Roger Clinton, Jr., to the
point where he intervened multiple times with the threat of violence to
protect them.[3][6] |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 35 Volatility
They each play off of each other. They can't allow the markets to collapse
too far as it will kill all confidence. They key is to fall enough to create
real buying opportunities. People cannot resist something for nothing and a
quickly ramping market is too good to resist. But they also are fearful as
their rational mind still understands that fundamentals don't matter and it
can all go to shit quickly. This emotional aspect creates the volatility
that creates the opportunities. Many ... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********e
发帖数: 33562 | 36 这个应该叫 Gambler's Ruin 现象吧？其实你说的这个庄家对散户的现象是可以用
random walk去解释的，不需要martingale。
而且谁说的一把输光就一定是你这个解释？历史上难道没有双方势均力敌结果一边一把
输光的战例？而且苏共固然可以近似成资源无限的财团，但是你输多了的话这个财团可
不一定继续給你输血。东北抗联背后就是苏联支持，结果把关东军打跑了吗？
至于神经错乱，呵呵，刚才你发那么一堆帖子，想必是犯病了吧？老将的素质真心是差
啊。呵呵。 |
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p****s
发帖数: 3184 | 38 Let stochastic process stop when the gambler's resource is 0.
If you always double bet after each win, which is the simplest Martingale
betting strategy, your resource will be 0 at a loss, then the process stops.
On the other hand, the one with infinite resource will eventally win a
round and win back everything previously lost.
You can draw a markov chain to see it matches Brownian motion.
Why is Brownian motion a Martingale (stochastic process)? well it just is
because it satisfies the d... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********e
发帖数: 33562 | 39 这是你的原话：“有无限资源的庄家最终是赢家，散户以前一直赢都没用、一把就输光
。”思维正常的人都会理解成之前只赢不输吧？
下一个问题：散户一定干不过有无限资源的庄家，这是martingale描述的现象吗？任何
地方都会把这个现象叫做gambler‘s ruin吧？ |
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f******t
发帖数: 19544 | 40 我的职业就是赌博，professional gambler |
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m*****t
发帖数: 16663 | 41 我有一个愿望，就是某天找一个与世隔绝的地方，专心用一个星期或者一个月，写一本
小说，就是这种感觉，出生就是为了死亡，人生就是在chasing every breaking wave.
https://youtu.be/iYVEik7Lvc4
Every breaking wave on the shore
Tells the next one there'll be one more
And every gambler knows that to lose
Is what you're really there for
Summer I was fearless
Now I speak into an answer phone
Like every fallen leaf on the breeze
Winter wouldn't leave it alone
Alone
If you go
If you go your way and I go mine
Are we so
Are we so helpless against the tide
Baby, every dog on ... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 42 0:00 Remember When - Alan Jackson
4:30 The Gambler - Kenny Rogers
8:00 He Stopped Loving Her Today - George Jones
11:18 What a Rotten Day - George Strait
14:13 I Walk the Line - Johnny Cash
16:58 I'd Love to Lay You Down - Conway Twitty
20:14 Mama Tried - Merle Haggard
22:26 Crazy - Patsy Cline
25:12 Ring of Fire - Johnny Cash
27:48 Midnight in Montgomery - Alan Jackson
31:32 Strawberry Wine - Deanna Carter
35:25 Dust on the Bottle - David Lee Murphy
39:19 I Fall to Pieces - Patsy Cline
42:07 Bo... 阅读全帖 |
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x**z
发帖数: 50 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: xxyz (逍逍遥子), 信区: USANews
标 题: 枪手的动机是什么？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 3 19:48:35 2017, 美东)
一个退休的millionaire，有房产，有飞机，衣食无忧，没有犯罪前科，经常到strip赌
博。按新闻说的情况，他的平均注码可以算high roller gambler。典型的一个有钱人
的退休生活模式。新闻说，屠杀之前他还在赌场赢了不少钱。这样的人会是一个杀人魔
，这也是很多人想不通的地方。
房间内那么多的武器和子弹，显然这场屠杀是有备而来。也许他只是案犯之一，还有其
他共犯或主犯。套间两个窗户被打破。按警方的说法，他轮流在两个窗口射击。有这个
必要吗？如果他想短时间最大规模的造成伤亡，只在一个窗口不就行了。两个窗口的夹
角角度并没有很大，射击角度在一个窗口就可以调整，没必要两个窗口跑来跑去。会不
会是当时有两个人在两个窗口同时射击。而那个主犯/共犯已经跑了？
总之，这个案件疑点很多。 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 44 How the Supreme Court just paved the way for legal sports betting, explained
in 4 minutes
Now that the Supreme Court has given a thumbs-up, states can start
legalizing sports betting. Many will.
On Monday, the Supreme Court issued a decision in Murphy v. NCAA that could
lead to legal sports betting in states across the country. Here’s what’s
going on.
The Supreme Court didn’t just legalize sports betting, but it paved the way
for states to legalize it on their own.
In 1992, President George H.W.... 阅读全帖 |
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E******k
发帖数: 389 | 45 David Einhorn is a degenerate gambler. He will die penniless shorting TSLA. |
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a***g
发帖数: 9 | 48 看到LOVE版的那个坑。不由得想起了我的父亲。我也想写点什么，又不知道发到哪儿好，
我想可能这儿有些人对我些的东西有些熟悉吧， 暂且先占个位子。我打字很慢，一段一
段慢慢写。
我的父亲曾经是个赌徒，而且是我所见过的最出色的赌徒之一， and believe me, I had
seen a lot of gamblers in my life.我们那个小村，特别是我妈妈娘家那个小组是远近
闻名的赌窝。我小时候的记忆有很大一部分是和赌博联系在一起的。 |
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t***o
发帖数: 462 | 49 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: zyh (Future Fuels), 信区: USANews
标 题: one of the missing reasons for the Obama's supporters
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 10 20:59:50 2008)
Hillary has a rich political experience and has a number of close friends
and experienced teammates around her and her husband. But Obama is a new
person without a strong term around him.
If you are a new gambler for your future venture -- political and economic
issues, who will you choose? Of course I will select Obama, because I will |
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