W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 1 Gambler or Investor? The Truth About Why We Trade
Getting at the 'Thrill,' From Neuropsychology to Gamblers Anonymous
By
David Weidner
It is a well-worn cliche. The stock market is the capitalist casino, a place
where gambling wears a thin mask called investing.
It is a place where "buy gold" or "buy Pandora" can sound a lot like "come
on, seven!"
The idea, of course, is that we so-called investors aren't actually putting
our money to work. We are engaging in a socially acceptable version of the... 阅读全帖 |
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f********r
发帖数: 69 | 2 gambler 3。好在经常抬头看看别的gambler和正常人都在干嘛 |
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s*******u
发帖数: 2249 | 4 As Feds Draft Bailout, Obama Casts McCain as Free-Market Gambler
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Border
Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Daytona Beach, Fla., Saturday. (AP Photo)
As big government steps in to bail out Wall Street, Barack Obama is
ridiculing his rival as a free-market buccaneer who until this week was the
champion of the kind of deregulation blamed for the economic meltdown.
Obama’s argument is the latest attempt by the presidential candidates to
prove their economic chops are best |
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l*********1
发帖数: 772 | 5 No really. Gambler's fallacy的意思是，如果你一直输，就会觉得下面赢的可能性比
较大。反之一直赢，就觉得可能快要输了。 |
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O***p
发帖数: 1333 | 6 A gambler is always looking for action, always want to be in a trade
regardless of the outcome.
A trader is always looking for the proper setup, wait for good trades to
come to himself. |
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h***o
发帖数: 5030 | 9 唉，奶已无
a gambler bets with his money
a trader bets with others' money |
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s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 10 everyone in the market is gambler, short term we call trader, long term we
call investor, just make sure you don't lose all that you can no longer make
a bet. |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 11 my heart is not big enough to be a gambler |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 12 买卖提酱油骊格， 截止今日的斯坦定斯。
该骊格由本版唯一的USATT认可的拖纳闷特伙计总创立， 目前伙总负责东部赛事，达总
负责西部赛事的泛买卖提骊格。
Law Gambler周五RR的成绩将输入此骊格。 另外， 十分推荐各地踢馆讲成绩输入此骊
格， 需事先确认，不能事后追补。
注： 我本人对 外纯卡德斯 采用买卖提骊格的积分无异议， 也认可他们的积分。如果
伙计不反对， 可以通用， 在丝袜思维使用相同ID。 |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 13 http://mitbbs_pingpong.challonge.com/cmbr7ifh
第一届 Law Gambler比赛
恶人到了三个， 两个出战， 恶丐苦练福原爱式攻球。
第一轮： 我还在热身，压腿， 扭腰， 下蹲的时候， 比赛就结束了， 一流被浙大一
号横扫了。 一流按规则应该和我打， 居然说要在一边练习。 于是，我和浙大一号苦
战五局， 然后轻声搞定一流。
第二轮 被我调教后的一流开始爆发， 我打个盹的功夫，居然连下两局， 我看了两眼
， 觉得， 一流似乎找到了对方的罩门。 但是很快， 一流就和不会打球一样， 手软
，脚软，根基软， 没啥抵抗的就丢了两局。
决胜局： 波浪状况， 上下起伏， 从落后到打平到领先到落后， 打到15:13方才分出
胜负。
一个包子超低价。 预购从速。 |
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J********9
发帖数: 36508 | 15 免费的法国来
http://mitbbs_pingpong.challonge.com/cmbr7ifh
第一届 Law Gambler比赛
恶人到了三个， 两个出战， 恶丐苦练福原爱式攻球。
第一轮： 我还在热身，压腿， 扭腰， 下蹲的时候， 比赛就结束了， 一流被浙大一
号横扫了。 一流按规则应该和我打， 居然说要在一边练习。 于是，我和浙大一号苦
战五局， 然后轻声搞定一流。
第二轮 被我调教后的一流开始爆发， 我打个盹的功夫，居然连下两局， 我看了两眼
， 觉得， 一流似乎找到了对方的罩门。 但是很快， 一流就和不会打球一样， 手软
，脚软，根基软， 没啥抵抗的就丢了两局。
决胜局： 波浪状况， 上下起伏， 从落后到打平到领先到落后， 打到15:13方才分出
胜负。
一个包子超低价。 预购从速。 |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 16 再宣布一个：
本版ID之间的交手， 除非一方赛前提出不算， 双方认可， 不然， 无论是否离歌，
全部记录在Law Gambler 的网名离歌成绩中， 供BSO用。 |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 17 阿朱， 你最近和垃圾呆久了吗？
周日的是SVTTC的离歌， 只不过大王们都不在， 我一年当中负责这一次。 你本来就免
费， 所以也不用给包子了。
周五是 Law Gambler 的 买买提酱油离歌。 |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 pingpongtheater 俱乐部 】
发信人: WMTT (Sir 达穆提 公爵 （KG）), 信区: pingpongtheater
标 题: 明天中午打Law Gambler 骊格的同学请注意
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 19 21:15:02 2013, 美东)
其实， 明天才是真正意义上的第一届LGB周五骊格。比赛采用大循环， 每人八场。 需
要热身请自行早到， 比赛12：00开始， 无需按照顺序， 能打多少打多少。 最好全部
精尽人亡。如果， 时间拿捏的好， 2点中左右应该比赛结束。
有smartphone的同学， 可以自行输入自己的比赛成绩。
http://mitbbs_pingpong.challonge.com/jtoxwqmv
如因故不能参赛， 请将自己的名字去掉， 不然会被禁赛和罚款。
届时会有三大恶人及弯曲12强中三人到场，关心比赛的人也可以使用上面的链接观看实
时比分转播。
另外， 包子报名费不用给我了， 比赛结束， 参赛的每人转一个包子给冠军就是。 |
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i****a
发帖数: 3116 | 20 電影【烂赌夫斗烂赌妻】Mr. & Mrs. Gambler |
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r*******n
发帖数: 60 | 21 zhou xinfeng's book page 83:
a gambler starts with an initial fortune of i dollars, each trial, prob p to
win $1, q=1-p to lose $1. He will stop when he accumulates N dollars. what'
s the probability he will end up with N dollars?
I'm thinking why the prob equation not like this:
P_i = q * P_i+1 + p * P_i-1
I consider P_i as prob at state i dollars.
高手指点一下吧，谢谢啦 |
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H****w
发帖数: 1632 | 22 Billy Walter and the computer group:
The Arrests
He was in the bed sleeping when the two men walked into his bedroom.
Billy
Walters sleeps in a big clean bed in Las Vegas, in a small but elaborate
home renovated to his liking, with palm trees and white flowerpots and
two
satellite dishes in the yard, and four large televisions in the den, and
a
security guard who sits just out of sight behind the shrubs across the
street. This environment was disrupted early last Jan. 5, when the two
strangers i... 阅读全帖 |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 23 "As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40)
, but the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the
gambler should bet 20% of the bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in
order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.
If the gambler has zero edge, i.e. if b = q/p, then the criterion will
usually recommend the gambler bets nothing (although in more complex
scenarios such a bet may help ensure the best compounding rate of return:
... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 24 Study shows gamblers spending fewer hours, less money in Atlantic City
casinos
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/sns-ap-us-casinos-frugal-gamblers,0,1322747.story
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — The amount of time gamblers are spending in
Atlantic City casinos is falling, and they're holding on more tightly to
their wallets while they're there.
A new statistical study shows the amount of time gamblers spent inside
casinos in the nation's second-largest gambling market is down more than 22
percent,... 阅读全帖 |
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p****s
发帖数: 3184 | 25 你大错特错，明显没学过Motwani的《Randomized Algorithms》。
前面说过，有限资源的散户和无限资源的庄家用martingale赌博法对赌，最后的结果就
是一把输光。 这是随机算法理论里的常识。
Martingale(概率论概念)来源于对Martingale (betting strategy)的研究。
我省点事，抄段维基百科，你理解一下最后一句"eventually bankrupt"的意思。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from
and were popular in 18th century France.
The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the
first win would recover all previous losses... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******l
发帖数: 3662 | 26 股市上有三种人
Investor, trader, gambler
咱们股版也有三种人
赢钱的gambler，输钱的gambler，不赢不输的gambler
有没有？ |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 27 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
By this rule, even a gambler has 1% edge over a casino,(50.5% vs 49.5%)
If he can't control his each bet under 1% of his total capital, he will
still lose all his money.
In reality, when a casino has edge over a gambler, how many can control
their each bet under 1% of their total capital? Whoever can brings $1000 to play
blackjack, but only bet $10 each time?
So a gambler lose his money not mainly because of the edge casino has over him,
but because o |
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p****0
发帖数: 611 | 28 Nothing personal. First of all, I don't think your call had anything wrong
with it. It's totally a right/standard move, if you are ready to take big
variance. Event with any two, you can make that call, because the image you
described about the BTN is about any two style and gambler. His shove
against you on this spot didn't give you any information about what hand he
has. Most likey, he had nothing. So you can always play coin flip with him.
Let me ask in a different way. If villain has 27o... 阅读全帖 |
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o*******g
发帖数: 1300 | 29 （文章来自新语丝的 “插一腿”兄，这位也是好几届美国扑克比赛排位靠前的高手，
他亲自操刀写的这篇文章读起来不但精彩而且增加了
故事的可信程度。）
中文称喜欢赌博的人为赌徒，通常是含有贬义的。带徒的词儿如匪徒、暴徒、狂徒还有
叛徒，连学徒都算上，不是脑子不够就是品行不端，要不就是本事不够， 总之是哪欠
点什么。英文中与赌徒相应的gambler就好听多了，基本上是个中性词。著名赌徒、两
届WSOP世界冠军刀友-不让孙(Doyle Brunson)就自豪地说“I am a gambler, I will
always be a gambler, I can not be anything else” 。我要谈到的赌徒，都是扑克
玩家，至少不缺脑子，德也不比普通人缺，所以我要为其正名，不用赌徒这个词儿。下
棋的称棋士，习武的称武士，打仗的称战士，赌博的不妨称博士。但现而今博士这个词
也被人糟蹋得不行了，骗子一大堆不说，当官的有钱的都能随便成为博士。所以，还是
不与之同流合污的好，称赌士更牛逼。
言归正传。在群星灿烂的扑克界，如果问谁是最佳扑士(best poker player)，虽然
Doy |
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D*****r
发帖数: 6791 | 30 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxh-FfElY0M
You can run on for a long time
Run on for a long time, run on for a long time
Sooner or later God'll cut you down
Sooner or later God'll cut you down
Go tell that long tongue liar, go and tell that midnight rider
Tell the rambler, the gambler, the back biter
Tell 'em that God's gonna cut 'em down
Tell 'em that God's gonna cut 'em down
Well, my goodness gracious let me tell you the news
My head's been wet with the midnight dew
I've been down on bended kn... 阅读全帖 |
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b******v
发帖数: 1493 | 31 题目如下：A gambler entered a game with initial money N. In the game, each
time the gambler flips a coin. If the coin is head, then he wins 2b,
otherwise he loses -b. He can flip the coin at most b times. The gambler is
allowed to choose the value b himself. How to choose b so that his expected
return is maximized?
多谢！ |
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f*****o
发帖数: 2526 | 32 像这些首页这些大量【湾区local】话题（占据首页95%），别人都插不上话，为啥非要
贴到公共版面？自己进小黑屋说个够，不行吗？ 小黑屋，你们不也是天天都进去看吗
？ 为什么非要强迫全世界看local自娱自乐的话题呢？
m ● 【买卖提酱油骊格】 Law Gambler RR League 周五中午(983b) 21/
239 WMTT
2013-12-10 wallwall
12-10 20:48
15 m ● 老干部活动中心隆重开张 (转载)(382b) 18/337 lgb
2013-12-10 nkfly
12-10 20:40
12-10 20:39
17 @ ● 【买卖提酱油骊格】 Law Gambler 斯坦定斯 一览表(382b) 16/
136 WMTT
2013-12-10 HokieMan
12-10 20:17
18 m ● 湾区乒乓球赛事汇总(839b) 7/191 javelin
2013-12-10 WMTT
12-1... 阅读全帖 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 33 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
By this rule, even a gambler has 1% edge over a casino,(50.5% vs 49.5%)
If he can't control his each bet under 1% of his total capital, he will
still lose all his money.
In reality, when a casino has edge over a gambler, how many can control
their each bet under 1% of their total capital? Whoever can brings $1000 to play
blackjack, but only bet $10 each time?
So a gambler lose his money not mainly because of the edge casino has over him,
but because o |
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x****u
发帖数: 12955 | 34
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
How many times has the Chinese stock market went through the gyration? How
many times have the news of market setters enrich themselves on the back of
small investors been exposed?
Any small investor still in the Chinese stock market is not a investor, but
a gambler. A gambler deserve to lose all his money, and they always do. |
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s**********e
发帖数: 33562 | 35 哈哈，是不记得了还是根本没有啊？很显然是根本就没有，你就是扯个东西出来装逼结
果被捉住尾巴傻逼了。
回到martingale上，先引用你对martingale和滑铁卢的类比的原话：
“概率论里的martingale是这个现象的一例，有无限资源的庄家最终是赢家，散户以前
一直赢都没用、一把就输光。”
首先无论是gambler ruin（庄家和散户）和滑铁卢里面都没有说过玩家是用martingale
赌法，你是在拿gambler ruin来跟滑铁卢做类比，跟martingale根本没有关系！
其次，如果是庄家跟散户对赌，下注的是散户，假设散户用martingale的赌法。你来告
诉我怎么可能出现一直赢然后最后一把输的局面？庄家是无限资源，根本不会输。散户
如果一直赢又不改赌注，怎么可能最后一把输光？ |
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a***g
发帖数: 9 | 36 看到LOVE版的那个Ph.D.赌博的讨论，不由得想起了我的父亲。我也想写点什么，又不知
道发到哪儿好。我想可能这儿有些人对我些的东西有些熟悉吧， 暂且先占个位子。我打
字很慢，一段一
段慢慢写。
我的父亲曾经是个赌徒，而且是我所见过的最出色的赌徒之一， and believe me, I had
seen a lot of gamblers in my life.我们那个小村，特别是我妈妈娘家那个小组是远近
闻名的赌窝。我小时候的记忆有很大一部分是和赌博联系在一起的。
发信人: agang (Jerry), 信区: RuralChina
hehe, we have the same language ah. my father used to a gambler too.
发信人: phb (arch), 信区: RuralChina
你慢慢写吧。 ：）
生活是真实的，不管好或丑，都存在。
金圣叹的嬉笑怒骂，曹雪芹的风花雪月之中，比一本正经更能显示真谛。
哈哈，我等着看你的大作。
发信人: afrog (@_@), 信区: RuralChina
以前农村里连个收 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 37 Exclusive: DEA chief says heroin ‘back with a vengeance,’ drugs a national
security threat
By James Rosen, Matt DeanPublished September 05, 2015
“Not much of a gambler,” Chuck Rosenberg says about himself, a tad
sheepishly. Indeed, in the seven deadly sins department, the new chief of
the Drug Enforcement Administration is something of a zero: He’s never
smoked marijuana, doesn’t drink alcohol, and lists as his only vice an
excessive intake of Diet Dr. Pepper.
Such abstemiousness may be a prized... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 39 华裔赌徒邸千（45岁东北人）借钱不还 在美国华人社区流窜诈骗
邸千，一位来自中国大连市的45岁男子，在美国居住了二十多年，因为沉湎赌博而倾家
荡产，妻离子散，于是不停地搬家，到处向人借钱不还，租房欠缴租金，还经常报警诬
陷债主和房东。邸千骗钱的手段之一，就是吹嘘自己的“辉煌历史”，并将一份履历表
作为“道具”。
以下《中国游泳教练工作简历及主要成绩》由邸千同志自己编写，内容的真实性存疑，
未经大连市体育局等单位审核。
中国游泳教练工作简历及主要成绩
姓名：邸千 性别：男 出生年月：1971年2月21日
家庭住址：大连市中山区中南路亿成花园8号楼2单元501室
邮政编码：116001 电话：15322033666
简历：
1979年----1983年哈尔滨市兆麟小学校
1983年----1986年大连市辽宁师范大学附属中学 中学
1986年----1989年大连市辽宁师范大学附属中学 高中
1989年----1993年大连大学师范学院体育系体育教育专业
1993年----2007年大连市体育局体育运动学校游泳教练
2008年----日本神户大学青少年游泳教练员培训班学习
2009年---... 阅读全帖 |
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x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 40 U are still alive because of your luck.But u can't always hope luck stands
besides u when u always take LDK, POT, DRYS or BP and hold on to death.
end? LOL that's just a beginning.
cut meat? because u are not good gambler, not because even 8000 or even 6000
or 15000. Even 6000, I still suggest u quit. U are not a good gambler.
This round of rebounce only makes u hold on your wrong faith. wiping out is
the only destination, I can see.
The truth is cruel. Sorry for the fact. |
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U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 41 For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount
bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff
odds, the Kelly bet is:
f*=(bp-q)/b
where:
f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;
b is the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1"); that is, you could win $
b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet 赔率
p is the probability of winning; 赚的概率
q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. 输的概率
As an example, if a gamble has a 60% ch... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****5
发帖数: 5135 | 42 Even your gamble skill sucks.
If you want to be a gambler, at least try to be a good gambler.
You were right once, but then wrong many times.
about
didnt,
way |
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j*****5
发帖数: 5135 | 43 Even your gamble skill sucks.
If you want to be a gambler, at least try to be a good gambler.
You were right once, but then wrong many times.
about
didnt,
way |
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e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 44 Interesting... and I am starting to get an idea what your 师傅s are like. :-
)
Well, let me tell you why it should not be an "A" in anybody's book, except
for gamblers' perhaps.
This is a great example of a bad call bailed out by dumb luck and ended up
with good results. Before the after-hour's news broke, CMG had fairly strong
technical support at around $550, as the price movement in CMG during the
day demonstrated. Shorting from $570-ish to capture likely the tail-end of a
down trend is not a s... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 10390 | 45 boston globe刚挖出来的,叫Cash Willfall.
大意是6个数猜对中奖,然后如果jackpot超过2百万没人拿就降低到猜对5个甚至4个,叫r
olldown.
一帮专业人士发现只要这个rolldown期间购入超过10万块彩票(2块一张)就可以狂赚一笔
(具体怎么来新闻没说明白).即使没中最大的奖.
专家分析一年的收益可以到6百万.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44002338/ns/us_news-life/#.Tjl2ZGH-
Gamblers find loophole in Mass. lottery game
Massachusetts has restricted ticket purchases for one of its lottery games a
fter the Boston Globe reported that high-stakes gamblers had discovered a wa
y to game the system due to a loophole.
看完了就一个感觉,政府才是最大的黑帮. |
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p***y
发帖数: 18037 | 46 这个报导会不会太惊人了。。。。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
＝＝＝
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 5:57:00 AM EDT
NYC bus driver's trail before fatal crash probed
Photo: AP
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Investigators worked Tuesday to piece together the
trail of a man with numerous traffic violations and a decades-old
manslaughter conviction who crashed a tour bus over the weekend in New
York City, killing 15 people.
The bus driver, Ophadell Williams, was ticketed in 1995 for speeding and
twice for driving without a lice... 阅读全帖 |
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c****1
发帖数: 5654 | 47 i used to think: Nittaku premium.
But last nite, i was surprised, there was a russian guy asked me to test 5
balls
all 3 stars, brand mark we blocked.
DHS, DFish, Nittaku, Joola and Gambler.
I could immediately tell the Gambler was the worst, not stable at all.
But it turned out Nittaku was just my 2nd choice, guess which one was my
first? |
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P****S
发帖数: 2457 | 48 这片Gambler Reflectoid, 在ITTF的list of legal racket covering上能找到。注意
它胶面上的"Mirror Effect"这几个字。对比Gambler的另外两款反胶上写着的"Spin
Effect"这几个字，大家想想"Mirror Effect"是啥意思？
我跟这日本人对阵前，刚好看了他跟巴基斯坦心理医生这场球，发现Sujia也是对他用
这片胶回过去的球对不上点，无谓失误很多，大多是出界，应该是对其狠命“削”过去
的球的旋转overestimate了。而且，我跟他对阵时，他接发球多次用那种使用长胶的选
手才常用的那种“刮”的动作把球弄过来，让我很难受，球发漂还借不上力，后来我就
把它当作anti-来打，注意了迎前主动发力摩擦加转，且吃球吃的更“厚”些，跟球时
间长一点，才回过去几个。
control |
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W**T
发帖数: 18996 | 49 本人，达穆提， 即将重新执掌乒乓球技术学院。 前一段猪院长为大家做出的贡献，
大家是有目共睹的， 就是一点贡献都没有。
乒乓球技术学院， 简称技院， 将继续保持公平，公开，公正的原则， 但是， 不再实
施民主，民生，民权的三民主义， 而是采用院长负责制。
技院将主要用于Law Gambler 周五骊歌的成绩通报和通知以及技院讲师与讲师， 讲师
与技师的交通和沟通。非技院讲师与技师不可以在技院授课。
特聘教授： 撰写技术文章， 写球评等有一定专业知识的本版ID
讲师条件： 参加或有意参加或将来可能参加Law Gambler周五中午骊歌的成员
技师条件： 为讲师提供服务的美女或“美女”或基友
现在， 请自觉清理现有的帖子，并欢迎大家加入技院这个大家庭。
等猪院长卸任院长后， member 将是申请加入， 同时对不符合讲师技师资格的现有
member会予以无遣散费遣散。 朱元璋（猪院长）将留任技院挂训导主任之职。
特此通知
乒乓球技院创始人及下任院长
达穆提
附： 技院申请地址
http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/pp_tech_college.html |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 50 1. In the situation a gambler has 1% edge over casino, if he bet more than 1
% of his total capital for each bet, he will lose his total capital at some
point, even he has a probability advantage.
Let's say if a gambler has 99% probability, should he bet 100% of his
capital for each of his bets? Obviously no, since he will lose his total capital
in 100 bets(theoreratically), the one he lose out of 100 will cost him all
his money, no matter how much he win before.So how much he should bet each
ti |
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