C*****l
发帖数: 3211 | 1 楼下的回复也挺有意思的
贴一下去年总决赛的新闻，来源是ESPN的注明记者，是ESPN。。[流言板]ESPN：詹姆斯
对布拉特极不尊重。MarcStein是NBA总决赛FMVP的评委投票人之一。【免得有些人说信
口开河】 去年总决赛时候MarcStein 早就猜测泰伦卢要上位了。
北京时间6月19日，据ESPN专栏作家MarcStein撰文报道，总决赛期间，勒布朗-詹姆斯
一直对大卫-布拉特存在不满，并且做出了很多令他难以理解的行为。以下是文章节选
。
我一直有个问题想问勒布朗-詹姆斯，并且希望有朝一日他能够回答我。
这个问题可以有各种各样的问法。
你想要什么类型的教练？
你到底想为哪种教练打球？
骑士找来怎样的教练谁你才会给他真正意义上的支持？
对于这些问题我没有准确的答案，骑士助教泰伦-卢是我最大的猜测。
但有一点我非常清楚的是：勒布朗-詹姆斯是一个非常杰出、非常伟大的球员，他太杰
出了以至于他不应该在总决赛期间那样对待布拉特。
总决赛期间，作为ESPN场边记者的我可以近距离地观看到骑士的一举一动。本质上，勒
布朗会在比赛期间自己叫暂停，自己作出换人调整。如果他不喜欢教练的决定，他会... 阅读全帖 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 2 http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/charlotte-hornets/jerem
Jeremy Lin’s future depends on his goals
Jeremy Lin is looking for the opportunity that offers him the greatest
chance to become the best player he can be. This statement can be
interpreted in different ways, but based on his past experiences, it is not
a stretch to think the announcement means one of two things.
Either Lin wants to be a starter, or he wants to play for a contending team.
The delineation between the two choices exis... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 3 the whole series come down to last 1 minutes, Irving make a improbable three
point shot, it happened to go in, and curry did not able to make a three
point at the end
if curry made the shot and Irving did not make, GS is the champion, and
james will get bullshit today
so why Irving's last wild shot has the most dramatic change to James's
legacy, haha. |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 4 3D is a really an appalling bid, IMHO,
if 2D is natural, then bid 2D is much better.
Is it forcing? this question is just dumb. If it get passed out,
then you can just quit bridge, and go buy lottery, because you will
hit the jackpot for sure.
What you should be concerned when holding a strong 2 suiter is whether
you have the opportunity to fully describe your hand. So try to make your
first bid as low as possible, the lower it is, the more improbable it will
be passed out.
Actually you can try |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 5 He took almost 2 minutes consider his next move after King of hearts...
that is the live evidence, .... people who are playing in the Polish
national team trail are simply morons.
IMHO, you guys bickering about whose signal system is superior is not only
baseless, but also useless.
NO signal systems will work when partner tuned in a different wavelength.
The approach of twisting spot cards and hope it will deliver a clear message
is simply 纸上谈兵. because it makes the assumption that both partners... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 2000 | 6 【 以下文字转载自 Mathematics 讨论区 】
发信人: guinea (猪猪), 信区: Mathematics
标 题: 田刚抄袭最新证据（唐纳尔森教授撰文）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 20 21:06:17 2013, 美东)
全文见
Xiuxiong Chen, Simon Donaldson, Song Sun
September 19, 2013
http://www2.imperial.ac.uk/~skdona/KEDEVELOPMENTS-9-19-2013.PDF
部分摘录
Gang Tian has made claims to credit for these results. The purpose of this
document is to rebut these claims on the grounds of originality, priority
and correctness of the mathematical arguments. We acknowledge Tian's many
contributio... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****o
发帖数: 924 | 7 再来起一个抛砖引玉的头，大家都来交期末考试的作业了！
红皮打出了improbable 的magic DECEMBER run，顺利达到我的赛前预测－－playoff，
打破了本版不whine不成文的怪圈,haha。Defense made a huge difference,从06年全
联盟第31重新杀回第8。想到我们第6,10,11周连折首发CB，FS，LB，（注：均为<25岁的
top draft picks,球队未来的栋梁）对gregg williams的工作相当满意。O上Todd
Collins 养兵千日，功不可没。以santana moss 为首的WR全面走低，令人始料不
及。尤其Brandon lloyd，不说synder给他的几十M,真心疼我们给niner的两个picks,他
们 也没有用不是。cooley的表现也有目共睹，这个是最好预测的了。
我赛前指出的几点忧虑：
1）伤病：今年还是这里报纸上讨论的主题。有愈演愈烈之势。除了sean taylor外,
carlos rogers,rocky Mcintosh都out of NEXT season了。哭！
2）板凳深度： |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 8 ”道德呢 伦理呢“
Wow such a 振聋发聩的voice. 绝对应该好好查查在所有有可能involved的地方：
1. New York? No, the "classy" organization has become glassy long time ago.
Also the Darth Vader in suits parades on Park Ave everyday. It simply can't
survive in New York...
2. Washington state? Unlikely it is there. Too many dopers and apples there.
Apples+Dopers=Sin, according to THE rule book...
3. Massachusetts? Nay, last time checked， it was deflated and shot dead.
Some people even suggested it was on tape even though we are not ... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 9 这场比赛不是一个play，两个play决定比赛，而是整场，a improbable process that
lasts the whole game, five quarters. 你确信你较为完整的看了比赛？！
另外，咱是在评球，你嘴干净些。 |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 10 法空打得很不错了。拍子 just got an improbable win. |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 12 It was said that Patriots rings have 283 diamonds, a symbol of coming back
from 3-28. An improbable come back win; even more so when you think of it
now. Could well be Falcons' celebrating the Super Bowl win.
这也是NFL的精彩之处，每个赛季很难预测谁拿巨碗。拍子拿的碗每一个都只赢几分，
这场史上第一次overtime，分差反而是拍子拿碗中最大的一次。 |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 13 确实，2014最后一下。2016落后3-28, 法空多make a play, 拍子少make a play, 哭得
是我拍。巨人的Helmet catch, Edleman的Ankle catch, 管家的improbable incpt 都
带有很大的随机性。巨人明显的holding on Richard Seymour没有吹，这些call或no-
call不同的队都有过。
巨碗就是尽人事，听天命。
同时目测我拍本赛季疲软。
扁: |
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p*********e
发帖数: 32207 | 15 请您给出法律上对reasonable belief = reasonable mistake allowed,
这一定义的出处.
我并非法律专业出身也没有受过相关训练,
但仅仅通过google,
http://definitions.uslegal.com/r/reasonable-belief/
"
Reasonable Belief exists, when there is a reasonable basis to believe that a
crime is being or has already been committed. In criminal law, similar to
the probable cause standard , it is a subjective standard used to validate a
warrantless search and seizure or arrest. And that considers whether an
officer acted on personal knowledge of facts and... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********e
发帖数: 32207 | 16 请您给出法律上对reasonable belief = reasonable mistake allowed,
这一定义的出处.
我并非法律专业出身也没有受过相关训练,
但仅仅通过google,
http://definitions.uslegal.com/r/reasonable-belief/
"
Reasonable Belief exists, when there is a reasonable basis to believe that a
crime is being or has already been committed. In criminal law, similar to
the probable cause standard , it is a subjective standard used to validate a
warrantless search and seizure or arrest. And that considers whether an
officer acted on personal knowledge of facts and... 阅读全帖 |
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i****i
发帖数: 144 | 17 One may argue that Duke got some favorable calls last nite. One may even
argue that in general Duke tends to get more favorable calls at more
critical time.
But I don't think there is any doubt that Duke is a better team than Butler,
not only more talented but also more efficient as a team.At least it's
obvious to me that Duke scored easier than Butler. Duke deserved to win last
nite.
Better teams don't always win. Go ask uky. Apparently, uky is a better team.
but wvu kept making improbable bask |
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t***u
发帖数: 20182 | 18 KNOXVILLE — Some reaction from elsewhere to the " Dooley 13" play that made
for the craziest ending to a football game so far this season.
2theadvocate.com | Time Out for Oct. 3, 2010 ? Baton Rouge, LA: Golfers call
an undeserved do-over a mulligan. Maybe from now on they?ll call it a Miles
. Extreme Makeover, Tiger Stadium edition.
Out of Chaos, LSU Scores Dramatic 16-14 Victory Over Tennessee -- NCAAFB
FanHouse: But never in the history of Tiger Stadium has chaos reigned more
sublimely than it... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****i
发帖数: 668 | 20 The Tigers never slowed down! Cam Newton leads Auburn back from 24-point
deficit to beat Alabama
2010-11-27 07:41 (分类:默认分类)
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- Cam Newton threw for three touchdowns and ran for
another, leading No. 2 Auburn back from a 24-point deficit Saturday for a
stunning 28-27 victory over Alabama (No. 11 BCS, No. 9 AP) that kept the
Tigers on course for a shot at the national championship.
Auburn (12-0, 8-0 Southeastern Conference) trailed 21-0 before it even
picked up a first down, and Al... 阅读全帖 |
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r*****e
发帖数: 381 | 21 1. Tostitos BCS National Championship Game
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Auburn
8:30 p.m. ET, Jan. 10
All the ingredients for a classic are there: No. 1 vs. No. 2, East Coast vs.
West Coast, and potential Heisman Trophy winner (Cam Newton) vs. potential
Heisman runner-up (LaMichael James). It doesn't get any better than the game
that will decide the BCS national championship.
2. Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 3 TCU
5 p.m. ET, Jan. 1
TCU, the country's other undefeated team, t... 阅读全帖 |
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B****2
发帖数: 8892 | 22 http://www.athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-
1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (2004-06)
Stats: 747 att., 4,045 yds, 41 TD, 24 rec., 198 yds, TD
The BCS version of Herschel Walker or Bo Jackson was the three-year star
from Palestine (Texas) High. A three-time first-team All-Big 12 runner
finished No. 2 in the Heisman Trophy voting as a true freshman in 2004. His
1,925 yards was an NCAA record for a true freshman and it earned him
unanimous All-American honors. Despite missing chunk... 阅读全帖 |
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u*********e
发帖数: 9616 | 24 nothing comparing to this guy.
Steven John Bradbury OAM (born 14 October 1973 in Camden, Sydney) is a
former Australian short track speed skater and four-time Olympian, who won
the 1,000 m event at the 2002 Winter Olympics after all of his opponents
were involved in a last corner pile-up.
Bradbury is best known for his memorable and unlikely gold medal win in the
men's short track 1000 metres event at the Salt Lake City 2002 Winter
Olympic Games, owing to three improbable events.
Bradbury won hi... 阅读全帖 |
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x**y
发帖数: 182 | 26 My vote Henin vs. Capriati
First seven games: perfect game with good strokes, volley, few error
The last two sets: pure drama and improbable lobs, occational
brilliant backhand passing shot from Hennin. |
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k**f
发帖数: 1137 | 27 The possibility was always there, but it's highly improbable.
温网时老费的状态其实很好，不料在quarter时，在2：0领先的情况下，被宋佳意外翻
盘。 如果小德赢了法网，谁又知道老费那时是什么样的专注力和斗志？
美网就更不用说了，在自己发球，握有两个赛点的情况下，让小德死里逃生，惊天逆转
。如果小德赢了前面3个GS， 这种大逆还能发生吗？
总之，太多的变数，任何猜测都只能停在猜测 |
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p*******p
发帖数: 13670 | 28 but you probably will 3bet pre-flop too since you have kk, you don't
want 4 people to see the flop, so kk is very improbable |
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j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 29 A new kind of cosmic energy has been released upon us just a few hours ago,
as planet Neptune entered Pisces! This is a momentous event because the sign
of Pisces is the natural "domicile" of Neptune, meaning that in this sign
Neptune finds a very fertile "soil", feels totally unhindered and stimulated
and expresses its full potential!
It takes roughly 165 years for Neptune to run through the 12 signs of the
zodiac. So, the previous time the same event occured (Neptune entered Pisces
) the calen... 阅读全帖 |
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c********o
发帖数: 23 | 30 A Lengthy Journey, Nowhere Near Over (New York Times)
February 3, 2008
THOUGH the chemistry of any happy relationship is hard to define, there are
tangible elements behind the success of the diminutive Chinese conductor
Xian Zhang at the New York Philharmonic and elsewhere. Her incisive gestures
elicit vivid performances from musicians who have seen it all, and her
passionate musicality reflects the boundless energy that has propelled her
improbable journey from a small town in China to the Phil |
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m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 31 其实也不仅是黄金，作者有个中文名字，但是英文好的太离谱了。估计是个老外起了个
中文名
http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/world-gold-council-clueless-on-chin
Zhanglan • 2 days ago
Koos, every day I read utter lies and nonsense - about China, about Gold,
about the effects of Winter weather on the US Economy, about the fact that
QE tapering is negative for Gold, about how the Gold : Silver ratio has
historically averaged 15, about how a rising stock market is bad for Gold,
about how crises in Emerging Markets currencies are bad for Gold - an... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****e
发帖数: 1827 | 32 something don't quite add up.
for exapmle, according to dancesportinfo, she won german open youth latin
2nd
place in 1992. at the age of 13??? Youth is up to 19 years old.
it's not compltete impossible, but quite improbable. |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 33 这个是《The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable》一书的一个重要
论点。就是说，人民特别能够当事后诸葛亮，总是能从没有完全随机实践中找出“规律
”。
引用一个例子：某美国人在三十年代住在柏林，写了详细的日记。战后出版，发现希特
勒的企图那么明显，肿么世人就看不到呢？但是，当未删节版本出现以后，发现，这个
写日记的还记录了很多矛盾的证据，如果去掉这些个东西，傻子也看出希特勒的意图了
。但是后人选择性地摘录，就出现了这个古人特傻的感觉。
历史也是一样，当时发生的事件，如果只是按照事后事件重新选择原因，就都是必然事
件了。所以，历史书也就是记载的事件可靠，同一个事件，可以有矛盾，但是自洽的截
然相反的不同解释，完全看作者如何选材了。如果当时没有原始文献，就看作者瞎掰了。
生提
然说
作之
就很
设想
智慧
作家
灵感
，公
内心 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 34 来自主题: LeisureTime版 - 副校长的枪 建议你读一下Nassim Nicholas Taleb的《The Black Swan: The Impact of the
Highly Improbable》。其中一点就是，只要你留意去找，世界上所有得事情都可以找
到Correlaltions的，所有的事情都可以解释。所以，事后诸葛亮特别容易，一战世界
领袖都没有看出来战争的必然，二战盟国和苏联都是大笨蛋，“明显”的correlation
都看不出来。
事后这些个学者们就特别牛掰的指点江上了……
经济危机以后的大牛们也冒出来指点correlations，唉。都是聪明人啊
这个《Black Swan》看过以后，你就会重新审视这些个社会科学和他们的方法论。你就
会为什么很多人都认为社会科学都是蒙事的了……
我从来没有说必然联系，社会上的事哪来那么容易的必然联系。我强调的是
correlation，这个对现在做政治决策一般都是要看的。连 correlation 和 causality
都分不清楚而且只是放个例的你叫我说啥呢？
题。
- |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 35 多谢，我去找来看看，好像跟那个《The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact
of the Highly Improbable》可以对照着来看……
bos， 推荐一本书，叫signal and noise, why most predictions fail but some
dont |
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c*******r
发帖数: 334 | 36 来说说我近两三年来比较喜欢看/听的一套书吧。
Earth’s Children 《大地的孩子们》 作者是Jean M. Auel。系列是这样的：
The Clan of the Cave Bear (1980) 洞穴熊部族
The Valley of Horses (1982) 马儿的山谷
The Mammoth Hunters (1985) 狩猎猛犸象的人
The Plains of Passage (1990) 旅行经过的原野
The Shelters of Stone (2002) 有巨石的隐蔽所
The Land of Painted Caves (2011) 有洞穴岩壁画的土地
最开始的时候，是从图书馆随便借到的The Valley of Horses 的audio book来听，很
喜欢，之后到网上查了一下，发现是一个系列，于是又陆续借了之前和之后的几本书来
看，来听，直到最后一本书出来。
这套书，场景设定在大约二、三万年前的冰河时期，欧洲的旧石器时代晚期。
书中以克罗马农人为新人类，和书中的另一类人，古老... 阅读全帖 |
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G**i
发帖数: 1292 | 38 摘自Amsterdam by ian mcewan
.......
he stretched，shuddered，yawned...
his nakedness against the sheet，，，and the sight of his own genitalia，at
his age not yet fully obscured by the swell and spread of his gut，sent
vague sexual thoughts floatingacross his mind like remote summer clouds.but
Mandy would be just leaving for work，and his latest friend，Dana，who
worked at the House of Commons，was abroad until...
He rolled onto his side and wondered whether he had it in him to masturbate
，whether it might s... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 40 http://www.prisoners.com/relcrime.html
宗教对犯罪率的影响
更加信仰基督的地方有更多的社会弊病和犯罪。这是格雷戈里。保罗在学术杂志《宗教
与社会》上发表的初步结论，这个杂志是内布拉斯加州一所教会学校的学报。
http://moses.creighton.edu/JRS/2005/2005-11.html
研究表明，基督教统治的美国南部和中西部地区，社会弊端和犯罪更严重，谋杀，性病
，死亡率更高。这项研究还表明，美国的犯罪率和基督徒比例，比其他发达世界国家都
高得多。
无法回避的现实是，基督教的教条更合适一个病态的社会。宗教狂热分子和极端主义比
毒品危害更大。
理性的人认识到基督教神话的荒谬可怜，而基督徒，尤其是福音派，或原教旨主义者，
不过是一些伪君子，用宗教作为武器来贬低他人。
格雷戈里。保罗的研究首次量化了基督教教义产生的社会效果。不只是基督教，一切狂
热的邪教都可能会有类似的邪恶效果。
当然，天主教会花了几百年压迫陷入贫困和苦难的老百姓。穆斯林有同样的呼吁
：暴力，复仇，排斥和压迫。
理智的人会奇怪宗教神话的诞生。
在美国，宗教=残酷。
Cr... 阅读全帖 |
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G****e
发帖数: 11198 | 41 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/education/edlife/09ap-t.html?
January 8, 2011
Is Law School a Losing Game?
By DAVID SEGAL
IF there is ever a class in how to remain calm while trapped beneath $250,
000 in loans, Michael Wallerstein ought to teach it.
Here he is, sitting one afternoon at a restaurant on the Upper East Side of
Manhattan, a tall, sandy-haired, 27-year-old radiating a kind of surfer-dude
serenity. His secret, if that’s the right word, is to pretty much ignore
all the calls and lett... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********t
发帖数: 527 | 42 我擦，这个人不是被很多人打过脸了么？就在你给出的wiki page里
“Various studies have found that defensive gun uses occur at a dramatically
lower magnitude than that found by Kleck. In the article "Guns in America:
National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms" by Philip J. Cook
and Jens Ludwig, Cook and Ludwig quote the National Crime Victim Survey as
finding 108,000 DGUs per year. One section of the article compares the U.S.
crime rate to the number of DGUs reported by Kleck and Kleck-like studies
and concludes... 阅读全帖 |
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z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 43 google ping fu，第一个新闻链接就是说她造假的
News for ping fu
The Guardian
Some vindication of Ping Fu and the malicious Chinese cyber trolls '
persecuting' her with facts
South China Morning Post (blog) - by John Fintan Kennedy - 1
hour ago
Last month, China's most feared fraud detector Fang Zhouzi noticed American
entrepreneur making improbable claims in interviews as ...
Chinese-American tech boss Ping Fu denies inventing Cultural Revolution
horrors
Telegraph.co.uk - 3 days ago
The Pers... 阅读全帖 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 44 when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however
improbable, must be the truth...
possible，but not likely |
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w***z
发帖数: 1848 | 46 9. Forrest Gump
Worth: $5.7 Billion
Source: Apple Inc.
Residence: Greenbow, Ala.
Series of highly improbable and extremely fortuitous events, involving Ping-
Pong, Watergate, shrimp fishing and a hurricane, led to Gump’s acquiring 0.
5% of Apple in its 1980 IPO; doubled his stake after longtime business
associate “Lt. Dan” succumbed to cirrhosis of the liver late last year.
Widely regarded as the inspiration for the iPad; Steve Jobs said that he
wanted to make a computer “simple enough for Forre... 阅读全帖 |
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b******y
发帖数: 2729 | 47 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: buddyboy (hello), 信区: Military
标 题: 你们猜猜chew shit fun教授最新paper 是啥： peeing-through-the-mouth！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 2 15:48:25 2013, 美东)
http://www.improbable.com/2012/10/13/dr-shit-fun-chew-on-peeing
peeing-through-the-mouth
We closely follow the research of Dr. Shit Fun Chew of National Institute of
Education, Singapore. Her most recent piece of work is ‘The Chinese soft-
shelled turtle, Pelodiscus sinensis, excretes urea mainly through the mouth
instead of the... 阅读全帖 |
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A******u
发帖数: 1279 | 48 da 2nd law thermodynamics tells us entropy of a closed system generally
increases. this would make time directional.
statistical mechanics, on the other hand, is invariant under time reversal.
people believe that the irreversibility arises from general non-
integrability of macroscopic systems. in this sense, going back in time is
not as sinful as stated in thermodynamics, but is just improbable.
the perceived direction of time, that is, as though we are traveling from
the past to the present an... 阅读全帖 |
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