t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 1 纯新手，最近LD毕业等等一些事情，所以得考虑买房的问题了。娃还小，所以4-5年之
内不太需要考虑学区的问题，
所以打算在适合投资出租的town买个condo，先自住个几年，看情况买好town的SFH，然
后把这个condo出租。
看了一些房子，同时做了一些调研，基本情况是这样:
一个2br, 1000 sqft的condo，1986年盖的，6层的大building，在Boston地区绝对算很
新的(我们苦呀)。
Short sale，要价$150K。
假设能拿下的话，这个complex里面(一共100户左右)，市场价格租金在$1600/month左
右，$1500很容易租掉，$1700+就难一点。
我大体上算了一下，不知道靠不靠谱。大家帮忙看一下:
从自住的角度看:
假设我down 30%，然后30yr fix 4.5%，rent 按照$1600算，房价假设不涨(这年头，不
继续跌已经不错了)，房租假设每年涨2%，
如果不买房，down pay加上每个月的principle拿去投资，收益率7%，interest抵税税
率35%。买和租大概26个月break even，小于
26个月租划... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****s
发帖数: 143 | 2 leverage, leverage, leverage
用别人的钱来赚钱。 |
|
t*******s
发帖数: 492 | 3 in general, you can leverage your real estate investment by 5, with
extremely low interest cost (pretty much lower than anywhere you can borrow
money from). So, a little bit higher than other investment alternative will
be magnified by 5. This is one of the reasons that real estate get bubble/
bust cycle, because rationally, real estate is indeed a very good investment
due to the leverage, but at same time, gets bubble easily. this is an
inherent issue with any high leverage business. |
|
m**2
发帖数: 3374 | 4 2015 Best Oil ETF No. 1: United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE Arca: USO) is the
most popular of the oil funds, with an average trading volume near 11
million shares. This ETF is actually a limited partnership rather than a
true ETF, though it trades like a stock (as ETFs do). USO’s managers invest
the partnership’s pooled assets in a variety of vehicles, from oil and gas
futures contracts to cash-settled energy options. The goal is to match the
performance in percentage terms (less expenses) of the s... 阅读全帖 |
|
b******y
发帖数: 9224 | 5
You 指的是公司里的 everybody.
举些例子.
Making money while you sleep的business有:
-software services
-ecommerce businesses
-automated financial/stock trading companies
-music recording/licensing industry
-movie industry
-book publishing industry
这些business的共同特点就是有leverage. 也就是做一份儿东西，可以卖N遍。比如说
，唱片，录制一次，可以发行上millions的copy.
与making money while you sleep相反的business有:
-consulting business
-餐馆业
-传统零售小店
-real estate经纪人
-律师业
-医生
等等。
这些business的特点就是，你干多少活儿，得多少钱。没有太大的leverage. 除非经营
的足够大了，你可以franchise或者靠多雇佣employee来le... 阅读全帖 |
|
b******y
发帖数: 9224 | 6
那个时候是原始积累，不算是great business. 后来麦当劳franchise了，这个才是真
正的leverage，才是他家发大财的开始。
Walmart后来做成规模后，能够leverage它的shelf space, 压低供货商的价格，也是
leverage它的规模和垄断。没有网络销售的时候，他家还可以称王称霸，但现在就不一
定了。实体店的成本太大，他们也在玩命儿搞电商促销。 |
|
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 7 A new filing by Direxion Funds could seriously up the ante in the realm of
leveraged exchange-traded funds. The firm, which is known for its leveraged
index mutual funds, has filed 36 proposed ETFs with the Securities and
Exchange Commission.
There's been a lot of activity in the leveraged funds market lately, but
these funds take the concept to the next level - they offer THREE TIMES the
performance (or three times the inverse) of the daily performance of the
indexes they are tied to. This mean |
|
W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 8 Loan Prices Reach Two-Year High as Apax Borrows: Credit Markets
By Paul Armstrong
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Prices of high-yield loans in Europe hit a two-year
high as the improving outlook for corporate defaults and the economy open up
financing for leveraged buyouts.
The average price for actively traded so-called leveraged loans climbed 7
basis points to 96.07 percent of face value since Jan. 1, according to
Standard & Poor’s Leveraged Commentary & Data. The price of the debt,
mostly used to fin |
|
j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 9 option如果不用leverage的话风险还没有股票大。
但是如果用leverage的话风险比股票大得多。
所以风险归根到底是怎么做。你要是做的不大当然风险不大。要是做的大当然风险也大。option的风险在于它允许你用很大的leverage |
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 10 我首先要声明的是， 我其实并不了解金融行业， 尤其是银行。 银行业有自己独特的
business model, 那就是leverage。 按道理说， 我是不应该对我不了解的行业评头论
足， 但是看了几遍BAC的annual report, 我觉得还是应该写些什么。
1. 金融业是美国经济三部引擎之首， 其他两部是汽车业和地产业。 美国经济要复苏
， 必须要先靠金融业重振雄风。 反过来来说， 美国经济复苏是必然的，金融业的再
次繁荣也是必然的。 这就是为什么我要对我并不了解的金融行业做投资， 我投的是美
国经济振兴的必然。
2. BAC最赚钱的行业其实是信用卡服务， 这项收入占了整个集团收入的40%。 而相对
应的放贷收入只占了10%。 这就是为什么BAC能在滔滔金融海啸里损失有限， 并且保留
实力收购MER。 花$30B收购MER能为集团每年增加$5-8B的投资收益， 这已经在2009年
的年报上体现出来了。
3. BAC其他业务都在复苏， 这个季度的每股27收益只是冰山一角。我估计BAC两年之内
可以达到每股每年2-3美元的收益, 四年之内能达到每股每年4-5美元的收益。这些收益
很... 阅读全帖 |
|
t******g
发帖数: 462 | 11 kao, 赶2小时火车才到家，你不能让人把碗饭吃完？不是高手，周末没事随便聊聊。
华尔街是编故事，讲故事，听故事的地方。各种故事里最重要的一个情节是growth,传
说中持续稳定的增长，这就是垃圾NFLX,CMG炒得满天飞的原因。新兴公司最容易有增长
，达到一定规模后就要靠买其他同行来增加revenue/growth，再下去就要靠合并上游下
游公司merge/acquisition来grow，叫vertical intergation, 华尔街通常认为合并后
的公司更值钱，多出来的部分叫Synergy。M&G是给华尔街送钱，当然要给面子。公司之
间也不是随便乱买，一般都请华尔街公司做consulting，帮忙编故事：除了虚无的
synergy之外，要么增加growth，要么账面变好看, better balance sheet。早年把非
特这么做，2000年csco这么做，最近orcl在这么干。
以下故事只是大概情节，请勿追究细节
07年时，dean foods既有hugh cashflow, positive growth and low leverage，就好
像一个美女有貌 （g... 阅读全帖 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 12 这个JASON 可能数学不怎么好， 所以会建议 用有LEVERAGE 的ETF 长期投资。除开 DOUBLE DOW 以后更高的风险不论， DOUBLE 或者 THREE TIMES 的 ETF 长期会有比较严重的TIME DECAY。
有 LEVERAGE 的ETF TRACK UNDERLYING 的 INDEX， 但是它一般只可以保证每天的涨跌 MATCH 它追踪的 INDEX。 我们来看一个很简单的例子。假设 DAY 1 DOW 是10000, 而你买了10000元的DOUBLE DOW。DAY 2 DOW 涨到 11000， 10% 的GAIN。 那么 你买的DOUBLE DOW 涨到 12000。假设DAY 3 DOW 跌到 10000，一个 大概 0。091 的LOSS。 这样 你买的 DOUBLE DOW DAY 3 的 VALUE 是 12000( 1-2/11)=9818。12。 这样 DOW 是 FLAT 的， 但是 DOUBLE DOW 已经让你亏损192元。
同样的原理对 INVERSE 的ETF也成立。 MARKET 越VOLATILE，LEVERAGE ... 阅读全帖 |
|
o******l
发帖数: 35 | 13 同学，还是省点时间吧，你这样除了利用future自身的leverage，没有任何地方beat
market。
NQ一个contract是 $100 x price，现在大概$230,000的value，你用$10,000来trade 4
个NQ，差不多100:1的leverage，+45%相当于没有leverage的+0.45%，比NASDAQ
Composite YTD gain差多了。 |
|
w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 14 1.目前不可能有flash crash。
2.我的maintenance$2800就是我的强制stop.broker会帮我liquidate)。这也是我抓大leverage时的考虑。所以不可能有清出场这种事。
3.可以说大部分事，你们看不到，我可以看到。（比如现在不可能flash crash).
大部分风险，你们不知道怎么应对，我知道（我知道什么时候该跑路，别看我现在不动
，动的时候绝大部分人还不知道风险要来临）。
一年的时间，各种事都会遇到，你们可以看看我如何应对。
还有，如果是大资金，我可以把leverage降低。我相信我把leverage降到目前的三分之一，还是能一年翻十倍。 |
|
l***n
发帖数: 812 | 15 hmm, it is similar as they both are collective investment, AKA 'trust'.
Their business are quite different. Based on what I read from MSB's website,
its revenue highly depends on iron ore's price and it is prohibited from
operating any kind of business.
So it is just a lease and royalty collector-- kind of like a landlord. I
don't know much about this kind of trust and it seems that the agreement of
trust have a lot to do with its valuation.
I don't think MSB is much leveraged given its busine... 阅读全帖 |
|
w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 16 es and nq leverage is not very high actually.
options has more leverage.
commodity has bigger leverage |
|
j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 17 其实市场低位的时候上leverage风险也巨大。崩盘总是要先走到低位再崩的。总在低位上leverage可能更容易赶上崩盘。上升期用点leverage，见好就收可能更安全。
我现在觉得投机行为还是要在右侧搞。 |
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 18 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
outlet010 (吴振甫) 于 (Thu Apr 28 17:27:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
想买美元涨，澳元/加元跌。但不知道怎么投。
有没有好的建议。
准备花一俩年买，估计俩三年后见效。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 28 17:28:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
什么都可以炒，就是外汇不能抄
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Caspia (情人草) 于 (Thu Apr 28 17:28:50 2011, 美东) 提到:
Open an IB account, then you can 炒 anything.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 28 17:31:23 2011, 美东) 提到:
1... 阅读全帖 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 19 Short 3x options本人是强烈反对的。
3x 是 leveraged
options 是 leveraged
Short 更是 leveraged
这这这简直已经脱离人类的范畴。很难起到hedge的作用。
很容易就崩溃料。 |
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 20 天天看见喊leverage etf DT交易，而且都神乎其神的，忍不住说两句。
DT赚钱很难，炒leverage ETF赚钱很难，高手们要么TA出神入化，要么超强纪律交易没
感情无脑操作甚至机器交易，其他一般人都不赚钱的。fas/faz害人的结论是无数退出
本版青蛙的教训，可惜他们不来了，没法现身说法了。
如果认为自己是超人高人，或者交易冷酷人有自己的系统，属于那1%人类精华，就go
ahead。我自认没那个本事，所以就不DT,更不碰leverage etf. |
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 21 反指上leverage没什么， 反正也是需要快进快出， 也没有div.
正指上leverage没什么意思。
除非碰见09年那样官方印钱抬市的， leveraged etf的yield还不够交管理费， time
decaying cost 和 div deductions. |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 22
.......................
JAMN not available. May have been reserved.
HGSI:
*** NOTE: ALL PRICE TARGETS & PROFITS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Cash Unit is $1,000. Simply multiply for larger sums.)
FORECAST FOR STOCK SYMBOL: HGSI, AS OF 20111104 (YYYYMMDD)
[AFTER HOURS] CLOSING PRICE ON 20111104 was: 9.6900
NEAR-TERM STOCK OUTLOOK & RATING FOR HGSI: MODESTLY BULLISH
Near-Term Price Potential is UP, i.e. 0.3363 ( 3.50%)
Near-Term Price Target: 10.0263
At 10.0263, profit per $1,000 investment is 34... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 23
..........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CRUS AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 17.2200
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.3318 (-1.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 16.8882
At Price Target, profit is 19.2683 on $1000 investment. (+1.93%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 16.8882
There i... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 24
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: LLL AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 70.4900
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -3.3294 (-4.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 67.1606
At Price Target, profit is 47.2322 on $1000 investment. (+4.72%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 67.1606
There is a small chance ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 25
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: LULU AS OF 20111108 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111108 was 57.2000
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.3716 (-0.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 56.8284
At Price Target, profit is 6.4965 on $1000 investment. (+0.65%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 56.8284
There is a ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 26
..........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: NFLX AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 87.8500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.8453 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 88.6953
At Price Target, profit is 9.6221 on $1000 investment. (+0.96%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 88.6953
There is a sm... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 27
.........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: EOG AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 104.0100
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -1.1064 (-1.10%)
Short-Term Price Target: 102.9036
At Price Target, profit is 10.6374 on $1000 investment. (+1.06%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 102.9036
There is ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 28
....................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: MS AS OF 20111129 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111129 was 13.1500
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.0957 (-0.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 13.0543
At Price Target, profit is 7.2776 on $1000 investment. (+0.73%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 13.0543
There is a smal... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 29 寄信人: thewildwest (深水青蛙)
标 题: Re: Market Bullish
发信站: 未名空间 (Thu Dec 1 15:40:14 2011)
肥猫，你的预测很准，aapl真的到了388左右就不再上了！！～～
如果你方便的话，能帮我预测一下以下股票吗？
TIF SOHU PCX
这几个是我刚买的long的股票。TIF是赌ER失败，深水下。
多谢！
.......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: TIF AS OF 20111201 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111201 was 66.2500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 4.5... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 30
..................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: MON AS OF 20111201 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111201 was 73.2000
STOCK RATING: SLIGHTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -2.1550 (-2.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 71.0450
At Price Target, profit is 29.4399 on $1000 investment. (+2.94%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 71.0450
There is a small ch... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 31
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOOG AS OF 20111202 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111202 was 619.5000
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-19.1972 (-3.10%)
Short-Term Price Target: 600.3028
At Price Target, profit is 30.9882 on $1000 investment. (+3.10%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 600.3028
There is a small chance... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 32
..........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CRUS AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 17.2200
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.3318 (-1.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 16.8882
At Price Target, profit is 19.2683 on $1000 investment. (+1.93%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 16.8882
There i... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 33
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: LLL AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 70.4900
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -3.3294 (-4.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 67.1606
At Price Target, profit is 47.2322 on $1000 investment. (+4.72%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 67.1606
There is a small chance ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 34
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: LULU AS OF 20111108 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111108 was 57.2000
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.3716 (-0.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 56.8284
At Price Target, profit is 6.4965 on $1000 investment. (+0.65%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 56.8284
There is a ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 35
..........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: NFLX AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 87.8500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.8453 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 88.6953
At Price Target, profit is 9.6221 on $1000 investment. (+0.96%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 88.6953
There is a sm... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 36
.........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: EOG AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 104.0100
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -1.1064 (-1.10%)
Short-Term Price Target: 102.9036
At Price Target, profit is 10.6374 on $1000 investment. (+1.06%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 102.9036
There is ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 37
....................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: MS AS OF 20111129 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111129 was 13.1500
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.0957 (-0.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 13.0543
At Price Target, profit is 7.2776 on $1000 investment. (+0.73%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 13.0543
There is a smal... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 38 寄信人: thewildwest (深水青蛙)
标 题: Re: Market Bullish
发信站: 未名空间 (Thu Dec 1 15:40:14 2011)
肥猫，你的预测很准，aapl真的到了388左右就不再上了！！～～
如果你方便的话，能帮我预测一下以下股票吗？
TIF SOHU PCX
这几个是我刚买的long的股票。TIF是赌ER失败，深水下。
多谢！
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*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: TIF AS OF 20111201 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111201 was 66.2500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 4.5... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 39
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*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: MON AS OF 20111201 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111201 was 73.2000
STOCK RATING: SLIGHTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -2.1550 (-2.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 71.0450
At Price Target, profit is 29.4399 on $1000 investment. (+2.94%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 71.0450
There is a small ch... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 40
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*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOOG AS OF 20111202 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111202 was 619.5000
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-19.1972 (-3.10%)
Short-Term Price Target: 600.3028
At Price Target, profit is 30.9882 on $1000 investment. (+3.10%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 600.3028
There is a small chance... 阅读全帖 |
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K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 41 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:33:50 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天拉盘exactly拉到１２点。
看来mm的主力主要是操纵欧洲市场。
１２点一过立刻放弃护盘， 难道就这样了？ 下周没有扑腾了？
有谁熟悉欧洲市场的能讲解一下吗？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:35:58 2011, 美东) 提到:
从１０月４号以后的几个rumor都是欧洲盘后开， 制造欧洲盘的gap.
今明两天不知道还会如此吗？
总觉得mm放弃的有点早。
应该是news前的一天拉到最高。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
oyxy (金钱流) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:38:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
大MM如果那么狡猾，哪会那么按时操作啊，今天后半段也还是有可能重新拉起来的，谁
知道啊... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 42
I don't know what you mean by 赌. I hope it's not leverage or margin.
Holding the physical gold and silver will be rewarding enough. There's
no need to take on further risk of leverage such as AGQ stuff or some
form of aggressive margin. If you want leverages play some miners. |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 43 MREIT理论上对政策的变化特别敏感，有一家没经验的机构误判了政策影响，
然后心里一急就抛售（率先抛售的人可以将损失降到最低），就会导致连锁反
应，因为现在机构都是机器交易。然后flash crash了之后，那些专做MREIT，
有丰富经验，对政策理解的更好的机构都设的钓鱼单或者有logic来对付这种
情况，就会gobble up这些cheap share，导致价格恢复正常。这些机构之间
的争斗更残酷，就看谁经验更丰富，技术更强大。
其实MREIT这个行业真的很不错，风险是有，但与那10%-15%的分红相比，算个P
啊。这个行业的老大和带头人NLY，都干了15年了，利率高也好，低也好，
反正股价也涨，分红也涨，哪有什么风险。2008年整个股市crash的时候，
MREIT都没怎么跌。最近几年冒出来的新MREIT都是NLY的老员工出来搞的，包括
AGNC。我觉得MREIT这个行业，真的是很bug，借发行股票来拿钱，用这些
钱去leverage，然后拿leverage去买mortgage，收利息，赚利息差，真tm一1
本万利。AGNC就是个很好的例子，一个才4年历史的公司，就靠不停地发行
... 阅读全帖 |
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m******u
发帖数: 12400 | 44 fangpi!
发信人: koko (小气蔻蔻), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 唐三彩的agnc太厉害了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 21 12:14:41 2012, 美东)
MREIT理论上对政策的变化特别敏感，有一家没经验的机构误判了政策影响，
然后心里一急就抛售（率先抛售的人可以将损失降到最低），就会导致连锁反
应，因为现在机构都是机器交易。然后flash crash了之后，那些专做MREIT，
有丰富经验，对政策理解的更好的机构都设的钓鱼单或者有logic来对付这种
情况，就会gobble up这些cheap share，导致价格恢复正常。这些机构之间
的争斗更残酷，就看谁经验更丰富，技术更强大。
其实MREIT这个行业真的很不错，风险是有，但与那10%-15%的分红相比，算个P
啊。这个行业的老大和带头人NLY，都干了15年了，利率高也好，低也好，
反正股价也涨，分红也涨，哪有什么风险。2008年整个股市crash的时候，
MREIT都没怎么跌。最近几年冒出来的新MREIT都是NLY的老员工出来搞的，包括
AGNC。我觉得MREIT这个行业，... 阅读全帖 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 45 意义不大。很多人都觉得short这些leverage是稳赚的。其实short long 3x etf是会亏
钱的。
我认为学术上不大会有leverage etf震荡损耗这个说法。因为这些leverage etf“损耗
”的前提是股价按照某种方法走。而股票的走法是随机过程。也就是说在股价这个随机
过程的所有path中，只对于一部分这些etf才有损耗。对于很多path它们不但不损耗，
还有增益。概率界应该不会针对sample space当中的一个子集来定义概念的。 |
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m*******l
发帖数: 621 | 46 广告：请大家顺便支持一下我们第一篇发表的文章
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526532-a-chinese-perspective-o
1. 为什么要写这篇文章
从2012年5月 开始重新进入美国股市、债市，到现在刚刚满一年。一直想写一点自
己投资的心里历程。一来感谢我的投资启蒙老师（M老师），二来也提供一些经验教训
给和我一样在投资路程上摸索的新手。
2. 复利效应和股场初试
我们对投资重新开始感兴趣，主要是两个原因。一是因为M老师一直以来将他的投
资理念蕴含在和我们闲聊的过程中。现在回头想想，真是辜负和浪费了许多M老师的投
资机会。尤其是听M老师聊在2008年金融危机时的经历，让我们对投资有了一个全新的
认识。原来投资还是有可能“有章可循”。
第二个原因，是对复利效应和追求经济独立之间关系的认识（compounding effect
vs. financial independence）。当时我自己用excel坐了一个文件来看复利的效应。
如果能够保持8%到12%的年收益率，并且假定到退休以后仅以5%的固定收... 阅读全帖 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 47 策略是年初用1/3仓位烧tza。每当仓位降低10%就再调整到1/3.
结果是全年收益41.06%（没考虑交易费）。
而2013年iwm的收益是38.70%。
表面上看似乎是beat 大盘了。但是，在最差的时候用大约40.5%的仓位烧tza，这个相
当于是用1.21的leverage。
如果你不搞这么复杂的策略，而是简单地用1.1的leverage long iwm，那么你：
1.收益是52.6%。
2.如果不套利，那就可以推后交税。
3.没具体算，但是考虑去年的情况，最差的时候leverage也是应该低于1.2的。 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 48 我前面的模拟康南大师有意见，说是挑对我有利的年头模拟。那我就增加一下时间段，
改成三年的。
策略同我上一个帖子，也是开始1/3仓位烧，仓位降低10%就再调整到1/3.
几点说明：
1.1/3仓位运气很好，只看closing price刚好不被margin call。但是看日内的就有
margin call了。
2.收益是98.62%，而同期iwm收益是49.3%。
3.表面上是大大的beat iwm了，但是实际上最坏的时候已经是全仓烧tza了，这时的
leverage是3.
4.每年都要交税。如果考虑交税的话，那么这个策略是需要更改的，更改之后的收益会
降低。
如果你不用这么复杂的策略而是仅仅在开始用1.34的leverage long iwm，那么
1.收益是100%左右。
2.最坏的时候是1.48的leverage。
3.因为可以推迟交税，这个策略是可以贯彻，不许考虑交税的。 |
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t***l
发帖数: 3644 | 49 我说一下吧。你可以说现在的估值高和08年很像，但要崩得有一个前提，那就是有大量
的leverage，现在没有，完全没有。银行的借贷还是处于历史低点，普通投资者对于
credit的accessibility还是非常低，US retailer investor拥有股票的比例处于历史
低点，regulation也是非常严厉。
种种种种都导致了leverage起不来。bubble可以让股市跌，大跌，但没有leverage是没
法让股市崩溃的。更何况现在还有很多cash等着，想崩的还是快醒醒。 |
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C******e
发帖数: 1850 | 50 那要看是谁在leverage, 银行，金融机构，可能象LZ所述，现在没什么leverage, 因为
政策收紧了,但公司企业就不是这么回事了，由于FED长期低息加QE，企业这几年疯狂发
行债券集资，大都用来发红利或股票回购，这是不是leverage, 应该也是，所以一旦
FED加息，对企业的影响将很大。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7 |
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