m****c 发帖数: 1181 | 1 大致研究了一下这个MI Sector,之前有三个不定因素,现在就是剩下一个
1. MTG/RDN是否倒闭
这个行业有个risk-capital-ratio,不能高于25,当年PMI,MI的老大就是过了这根线
,当场被AZ州政府封门;MTG其实已经过了,都快一年了,居然没有被封门,不了解为
什么。RDN也是25左右吊了很长时间。
不过现在这个已经不是问题了,最近都是发新股+senior note,这个ratio不是问题了。
2. 房地产的恢复
这个现在也不是问题了,在房地产正常的年景,这个MTG/RDN总保单和收入有一定的比
例,那么和市值也有关联,MTG 30+, RDN 20+,这个和他们balance sheet,还有保单
的premium, LTV, credit score都有关系
3. FHA的退出
FHA本来是政府帮助低收入和少数族裔拥有住房而提供贷款和担保的机构,在2002-2004
年中,他们的业务和VA(就是帮助退役军人住房机构)加起来,loan是2-3%,MI占整个
市场25-36%之间。subprime危机,因为私人机构提高甚至停止贷款,他们step up大幅
提... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********s 发帖数: 17839 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: minncai (minncai), 信区: Stock
标 题: DT 心得: Why did I buy MTG this morning(for Day trading)?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 17 16:43:58 2009, 美东)
MTG/RDN/PMI are in the same business, RDN/PMI had big advance this week.
But MTG was essententially flat and down this week.
That was why I picked up some MTG at 9 this morning and made some profit.
You can group some companies in the same business together, and pick up the
poorest performance one. This is one the trick we use very of |
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y*****l 发帖数: 5997 | 3 http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=MTG,RDN,PMI,MBI
Like the charts, MTG,RDN have inside buy.
PMI Group Inc. (PMI), Radian Group Inc. (RDN), MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG)
and MBIA Inc.(MBI): All four are in the same business, offering private
mortgage insurance for homeowners who put down less than a 20% down payment
when purchasing homes. RDN in addition to that through its Financial
Guaranty segment also insures and reinsures municipal bonds, structured
finance transactions and other credit-... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********o 发帖数: 14359 | 4 想赌博的可以考虑MTG,因为即使不能继续卖保险就是这么维持着,反正两房不关门MTG
也关不了,现在的价格,MTG便宜,RDN贵了,不过都是赌博,成功的可能是6成。 |
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m****c 发帖数: 1181 | 5 粗略看了看RDN/MTG/PMI过去的年报, 特别是primary insurance in force 和 market
cap之比
=== 2005 ====
MTG:177B vs 5.2B = 34
PMI: 101B vs 3.6B = 28
RDN: 77B vs 4B = 18
=== 2013 ====
RDN 140B vs 2.2B
MTG 172B vs 1.7B
above cap is estimated after recent dilution.
so both stocks have a big space above if the housing market stablizes. and
recent congressmen's talks lead to a possible early resolution of fha, which
could release additional 2-3 times market. |
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m****c 发帖数: 1181 | 6 粗略看了看RDN/MTG/PMI过去的年报, 特别是primary insurance in force 和 market
cap之比
=== 2005 ====
MTG:177B vs 5.2B = 34
PMI: 101B vs 3.6B = 28
RDN: 77B vs 4B = 18
=== 2013 ====
RDN 140B vs 2.2B
MTG 172B vs 1.7B
above cap is estimated after recent dilution.
so both stocks have a big space above if the housing market stablizes. and
recent congressmen's talks lead to a possible early resolution of fha, which
could release additional 2-3 times market. |
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 7 I disagree.
MTG is very close to trade at its book value. RDN is only 50% of its book
value.
Personally, I think RDN has more upside then MTG. |
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k*******d 发帖数: 1523 | 8 MTG跌穿六块了..快到RDN的价格空间鸟..
RDN直奔PMI的价格空间去鸟..
以后就把RDN当PMI买.. MTG当RDN买..
PMI可以忽视鸟.. |
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u********e 发帖数: 4950 | 9 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kingcrown (小母牛过生日) 于 (Wed Apr 20 22:12:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
一般来说,高位天量是顶,如SINA;
一般来说,低位天量是底,如RDN;
大家说道说道,有什么想法和意见?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tyning (自强不息厚德载物独立思想自由精神) 于 (Wed Apr 20 22:18:26 2011, 美东) 提到:
RDN还需要底部缩量盘整,现在入了也起不来,白浪费资金的时间成本。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kingcrown (小母牛过生日) 于 (Wed Apr 20 22:19:40 2011, 美东) 提到:
问题是RDN已经底部缩量盘整很久了 。。。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tyning (自强不息厚德载物独立思想自由精神) 于 (Wed Ap... 阅读全帖 |
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R*********a 发帖数: 306 | 10 Are you kidding me, of course PMI. You guys should read the SEC file, MTG
entitle 1.5B net asset and RDN has 1.1B net asset and even make significant
profit in the current 2 seasons with $0.8 and $1.08 per share.Only PMI is
really dangerous, keep tremendous loss...
So, don't touch PMI and persue RDN or MTG, you will be rich. Again, don't
guess. |
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s******v 发帖数: 4495 | 11 关心这个行业的人不少啊,大家多交流一下吧
这个mtg和rdn,主要看cap-debt-ratio,mtg和rdn都在24左右,过了25就完蛋了,1)
不能写新policy,2)被政府接管破产,pmi就是因为过了25,被Arizona政府给收了。
最近的房地产数据很不错,星期二的housing start是过去19个月最高,多份报告,瑞
银,JPM,Zillow都在预期2012年,房地产开始复苏。 |
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m******u 发帖数: 12400 | 12 发信人: meiyoutu (没有图), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: MTG破产了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 2 11:37:51 2012, 美东)
MTG是干嘛的? |
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V*****2 发帖数: 7930 | 13 我已经全面抛出MTG。MTG应该还有上涨空间,不过我不贪了。 |
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V*****2 发帖数: 7930 | 14 我已经全面抛出MTG。MTG应该还有上涨空间,不过我不贪了。 |
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 15 Basically they will issue 135 million shares and $350 million convertable
note. Plus 15 percent wall street over allocation.
The way the street response the deal, they will issue 200 million shares and
400 million convertable. In total, 1.4 billion could be raised.
This is actually bad news for RDN/GNW/AIG..., if MTG is out of business, it
will be good for the other players. MTG is very lucky. They would be out of
business if it was one year ago.
IMHO.
The在 Volvo12 (黄石) 的大作中提到: 】 |
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m****c 发帖数: 1181 | 16 如果有rdn/mtg,千万不要卖,我扒拉了一下脚趾头算了一下,1-2年内,rdn可以到20-
25,mtg可以10-15左右,如果政府fha今年退出的话,还能再翻一倍。
没有的怎么办哪?就不要追高了,有调整可以进,或者可以看看gnw acgl,
要学习rim,他是股票亏了就不看了,我们要做到,股票赚了就不看了
market |
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g*********1 发帖数: 725 | 18 I see someone recommended it before. MTG is purest player in mortgage
insurance business. It has more problem than RDN. The recent rebounce of
this stock is reflecting the rising of the house market. Therefore, if you
believe the house market will be better and better, then MTG is a great buy.
I am a frog, don't know too much. just my 2 cents. :-) |
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发帖数: 1 | 19 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: CornucopiaX (斑马鱼公司总裁), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 跟MTG,SCA比起来, ABK简直是个侏儒
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 20 16:27:37 2018, 美东)
我还活着,你这个装逼犯死到哪里去了?
我要开店了!!!!
清华的晶晶开的是网店,一个ebay store而已。
我开的是:China Cafe!
我的干妈已经拿着枪在给我的店看场了。。。
不要怕。。。mir....我比你强。。。 |
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b**********y 发帖数: 326 | 20 新美贷款summit mtg给的rate太好了:
$540K loan, no point
30 yr fixed 5%,
15yr Fixed 4.25%,
7yr ARM 3.875%,
5yr ARM 3.625%
有人用过吗?
他家是一个专门作贷款的银行,不是broker.
据说没有broker能match这个rate.
用过的说说是不是顺利,慢不慢,容易拿到钱吗?
想赶在6月底前close拿8000。 |
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L********3 发帖数: 2272 | 21 mtg 被评估“买入”,rdn “中性”,今天都是暴跌,rdn更狠,那位对它们有研究,
来说说吧 |
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 22 MTG might need to raise cash soon, of course, 狗剩 will do the underwriting. |
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T*********s 发帖数: 17839 | 24 agree
i sold MTG long long ago at ~6.5x :( |
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s*****i 发帖数: 650 | 26 我傻了. 今天早上MTG一猛涨, 我给卖了. 哎.... |
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d*****x 发帖数: 1520 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 Stockcafeteria 俱乐部 】
发信人: djbwsnx (跳大绳), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: 请秋师傅谈谈MTG!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Apr 1 15:54:09 2010, 美东)
soon. |
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s*****i 发帖数: 650 | 31 可怜我该留MTG的时候卖了, 该卖MBI的时候留着了.
郁闷啊. |
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p*******t 发帖数: 620 | 32 I am still holding MTG. |
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S******n 发帖数: 1009 | 33 I loaded MTG this afternoon, now yahoo showed 2.93% increase after hours,
is it real? |
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b******r 发帖数: 16603 | 35 MTG上是好事啊,RDN/PMI总归会超过去的么。 |
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b******r 发帖数: 16603 | 36 MTG很争气,下面请PMI加油,这次是RDN ER殿后了。 |
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a******e 发帖数: 472 | 37 Great news! thanks for sharing! I am heavy on RDN/MTG :-) |
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a******e 发帖数: 472 | 38 Minncai daniu, how much do you think RDN/MTG can go this wave? unload some?
or hold and ride? |
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c*********o 发帖数: 402 | 39 what about MBI?
isn't MBI in the same field as MTG/RDN/PMI?
Thanks a lot! |
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a******e 发帖数: 472 | 40 I sold all of MTG and RDN, I didn'make much on RDN as I bought prior ER,
although 明菜大牛 warned the risk of ER, it was under water 10% till
yesterday, just out of water today with barely profit. |
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g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 41 是啊。
没有买。
俺要学菜牛大手笔,一单子就是8000股MTG。 |
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a****b 发帖数: 3588 | 43 肌肉哥看好它们啊?
如果大盘调整,RDN MTG PMI肯定是要继续跌的吧,如果没有其他利好消息的话 |
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g***l 发帖数: 18555 | 44 话是这么说,底还是要看的,MTG还算保险,RDN很有油水,PMI就算了 |
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K*******n 发帖数: 1466 | 45 MTG是比较老实的。前段时间都是定期从8.10到9.20来回奔波(大概)。前几个星期到
过7.3以下,现在的高点应该在8.8左右。所以,如果能够早7.5以下买到,都是好deal。 |
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K*******n 发帖数: 1466 | 46 MTG貌似又要往上了?这个股票来回运动,周期在一个月左右,很有意思啊! |
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k*******d 发帖数: 1523 | 48 菜鸟弱问, MTG有啥消息吗?? 怎么掉了这么多 |
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m*****i 发帖数: 4342 | 50 2009年, 我在版上第一次公布了我的Stock holding, 其中有二个股票 PMI/RDN,
当时,RDN的股价同今天差不多,3块出头。
一周以后, RDN有好的季报,股票当天涨了三快多钱(翻了一倍)。这二个股票引起很多
同学的注意,RDN曾经到过接近20,但是我在20没有买,大约掉到12左右买掉了。
有些同学(包括我), 在这个股票上挣了不少钱。
在2009年
1) RDN book value was around 30, PMI's was over 10, so price/Book was very
attractive
2) People expected the housing crisis would be over(or close over) by now(
2011-2012).
但看看现在
1) RDN's book value is under 7, PMI is under 2(I expect that PMI's book
value should be close to $1 after next month earning).
2) No i... 阅读全帖 |
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