p*******a
发帖数: 15 | 1 Odd Man Out: Truman, Stalin, Mao and the Origin of the Korean War
Richard C. Thornton
当然评选结果是Mao是Odd man out啦。这个结论不奇怪，作者是Georgetown U.
的professor嘛。
这本书我是在书店厚着脸皮花了一个下午看了个大概。感觉就是某些人谓“韩战
咱们是丢了台湾没捞到实际好处，结果还和美国大财主闹僵了”的论点来源吧。
这本书也就是因为这样就把Odd man的帽子送给了毛泽东。
虽然观点pro-american，不过韩战的来龙去脉还是讲的挺清楚的，而且比较新
在书店就可以看到啦！
不过我读后，我评选的结果是Truman才是真正的odd man out。当然Thornton不会
干这样的事了。他写老毛本来是想在美苏之间玩一个平衡的游戏，想既不得罪苏联
又不得罪美国，甚至还暗示苏联中美那个时候有了的那么一些暧昧关系，想从
苏联那儿多弄点援助。美国当然也是老毛算计之内的财主，不过斯大林是存了心
想拉中国下水，而且当时苏联也是唯一现实的援助来源。老毛靠向苏联就没啥好奇怪
。现在 |
|
c*****x
发帖数: 429 | 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06/patriots-are-favored-t
The Patriots, who were beaten 21-17 in Indianapolis, are listed as 5-1
favorites at the MGM Grand’s sports book in Las Vegas. The Giants don’t
even have the best odds in their division after winning their second Super
Bowl in five seasons.
ODDS TO WIN 2013 SUPER BOWL
===========================
Team Odds
===========================
New England Patriots 5-1
Green Bay Packers 11-2
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-1
... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 3 the latest vegas odds to win it all. texans moving down below packers/
falcons makes a lot of sense, as compared to the other odds table posted
earlier.
but dropping 49ers all the way to 15/2 is totally bullshit. I still believe
49ers are the NO.1 favorite to win it all.
the most interesting part though, is whether broncos are really that good?
yeah, I know, they had won a thousand games in a row. but seriously who did
they beat, and perhaps more importantly who have they not beaten?
patriots ar... 阅读全帖 |
|
w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 4 In poker, there are many situation that can produce odds difference among
each side.When one side has bigger odds than other side(sides), I call it OA
( odds advantage).
Odds advantage is an objective term, it doesn't relate to players' skill.
OA是一个客观存在,不因为牌手水平的不同而改变.好比搏斗双方一个拿刀,一个空手.虽
然空手的武艺高很多,也能赢拿刀的,但正常情况下,拿刀的应该赢空手的.就是说拿刀的
具有OA.
Now I give a few examples:
1. PocketQQ vs pocket JJ:
This is the simplest OA. flop A,K,2 rainbow, a better player can bluff QQ
away with JJ.But in normal situation, QQ |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 5 some more discussion here:
I saw thirtystand and patrickcp both called 3 bets on button with 9 10 and
such and got paid off. It gets me to think whether it is good to play with
odds or implied odds. Which one has more swings. Because i tend to be on the
losing end of that in general that falls for implied odds
The guy 3 beted patrickcp had air, it is not very illustrative, so let us
assume that guy did have an over pair and you hit a middle pair on the flop
and he cbets 2/3-3/4 pot bets, and yo |
|
H******e
发帖数: 4682 | 6 http://www.ebigear.com/news-56-66590.html
<<怪女孩出列>>内容简介
母亲和女儿面对青少年同辈相互比较的压力，和毫无人情味的社会风俗习惯。一个正常
的少年被同学疏远后而深感困扰。母亲必须帮助她重拾信心。
网友评价:
这部电影和Mean girls很像，但更恐怖，更让我觉得女孩子之间的报复远远比男生之间
的拳脚更伤人. 我希望有更多的女孩能看这部电影,我是在06年看到一本叫
out--the hidden....>的书,瑞秋西蒙写的.
那时我正在图书馆里找一些心理书,希望能找到一些能帮到我的治疗,看了很多书,可是
都没有帮助,最后在一个角落里看到一本叫<为什么我是坏女孩>(书名被译者翻译的很怪
),没多少希望的顺手翻番,发现这正是我要找的书.
关于这本书被拍成电影也是前几天才知道的,情节改编选自
....>的"凡妮莎的故事"那一节,结局也有所改动--真实的凡妮莎最后还是孤单一人,在
她对stace吼完翻脸后并没有得到众人的掌声,很多人都只是围观看热闹,而stace更狡猾
的把责任... 阅读全帖 |
|
H******e
发帖数: 4682 | 7 http://www.ebigear.com/news-56-66590.html
<<怪女孩出列>>内容简介
母亲和女儿面对青少年同辈相互比较的压力，和毫无人情味的社会风俗习惯。一个正常
的少年被同学疏远后而深感困扰。母亲必须帮助她重拾信心。
网友评价:
这部电影和Mean girls很像，但更恐怖，更让我觉得女孩子之间的报复远远比男生之间
的拳脚更伤人. 我希望有更多的女孩能看这部电影,我是在06年看到一本叫
out--the hidden....>的书,瑞秋西蒙写的.
那时我正在图书馆里找一些心理书,希望能找到一些能帮到我的治疗,看了很多书,可是
都没有帮助,最后在一个角落里看到一本叫<为什么我是坏女孩>(书名被译者翻译的很怪
),没多少希望的顺手翻番,发现这正是我要找的书.
关于这本书被拍成电影也是前几天才知道的,情节改编选自
....>的"凡妮莎的故事"那一节,结局也有所改动--真实的凡妮莎最后还是孤单一人,在
她对stace吼完翻脸后并没有得到众人的掌声,很多人都只是围观看热闹,而stace更狡猾
的把责任... 阅读全帖 |
|
y**3
发帖数: 267 | 8 请问ln odds 代表什么意义？面试时被问到，
我们可以用ln odds计算概率， 记得版上有大牛提到做SCORECARDS ln odds可以相加 ,
但概率不可以， 是不是跟这有关呢？为什么ln odds可以相加？
请指点 |
|
w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 9 In poker, there are many situation that can produce odds difference among
each side.When one side has bigger odds than other side(sides), I call it OA
( odds advantage).
Odds advantage is an objective term, it doesn't relate to players' skill.
OA是一个客观存在,不因为牌手水平的不同而改变.好比搏斗双方一个拿刀,一个空手.虽
然空手的武艺高很多,也能赢拿刀的,但正常情况下,拿刀的应该赢空手的.就是说拿刀的
具有OA.
Now I give a few examples:
1. PocketQQ vs pocket JJ:
This is the simplest OA. flop A,K,2 rainbow, a better player can bluff QQ
away with JJ.But in normal situation, QQ |
|
s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 10 There are plenty of Online Odds Calculators.
HOWEVER, I find none offer odds calculator, say, 55 VS AKo when one 5 is
stripped from the deck? Well I can set to the third player with 5To to
estimate. But
that is still not the best.
Anyone knows Online Odds Calculators which offers information conditional on
certain things(such as one/two cards are stripped from the deck)? |
|
s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 11 No, I surely do not know. But I shuold estimate.
Say, 9-handed. I have 55. I bet 3.5BB at MP and one 3X from BTN with AK.
What am I to do? I need odds.
I can estimate the possiblity that one 5 is dealt out already(based on
distribution). And the other guy have AK(or AQ, same). There is possibility
that one/more A/K is dealt out also.
With that information and THE ONLINE CALCULATOR WHICH CAN GIVE CONDITIONAL
ODDS, I would have better odds information. |
|
s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 12 I guess all the odds calculator is just simulation w/o any card stripped off
.
Or that is unconditional odds.
The conditional odds will be close and then it does not matter to know much
as CASH game. At tourney, it matters I believe. Because either 1 or 0 (
stripped
or not), that highly impact the outcome and your standing.
think
get |
|
c********e
发帖数: 42175 | 13 【 以下文字转载自 LoveNLust 讨论区 】
发信人: WuPeifu (两湖巡阅使、讨贼联军总司令吴佩孚), 信区: LoveNLust
标 题: IQ Test: Who Is the Odd Man Out?（包子帖）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 26 11:29:05 2012, 美东)
Who is the odd man out?
游戏规则很简单：每一组四个ID中，有一个从某种角度不属于同一范畴。
请正确指出每一组中的“odd man out”并说明原因，可得一个包子。
有些题目难度甚小，为保公平起见，请勿接连答题，至少要有其他一人答
题之后才能继续，否则无效。
1.
Gobeijinggo
Skycaptain08
Chensheng
Yeahpussy
2.
Soren
Lilybank
Cengceng
Anise
3.
Zhijier
Choo
Chensheng
Churchance
4.
Jeaniris
Xuxihua
Hollymolly
Waitingforyo
5.
Sukha
Hualavender
Makiyo
Dasua... 阅读全帖 |
|
a******e
发帖数: 95 | 14 【 以下文字转载自 TexasHoldem 讨论区 】
发信人: antelope (主唱兼吉他手兼贝司兼键盘兼鼓手), 信区: TexasHoldem
标 题: [Freeware] AceStats: 6-in-1 Poker Odds Calculator
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 30 19:43:11 2009, 美东)
Features:
- It supports 6 variants of poker, including Texas Hold'em, Stud, Omaha,
Razz, Stud 8 or Better, and Omaha 8 or Better. For odds calculation,
both exact and simulation methods are supported.
- AceStats employs many advanced AI technologies to speed up computation,
and it is one of the fastest odds calcul |
|
A2
发帖数: 588 | 15 How to calculate the odds Ratio using propensity score in stata
I used the stratification(quintiles) matching method and have calculated the
propensity score. However, how can I use these propsensity scores to
calculate my odds ratio? I think I need to adjust these quintiles, but any
expert can give me an example of the stata code to calculate the odds ratio?
Thank you so much! |
|
jl
发帖数: 398 | 16 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
bluefairy (皮诺曹的梦中仙子) 于 (Wed Apr 12 23:04:01 2006) 提到:
一般来说，odds ratio高的话，两个变量之间做chi-square test of independence得到
的p-value就应该小。比如说，男女找工作，男的被雇概率大于女的被雇概率，那odds
ratio就大于1了，那么性别和被雇否做chi-square test of independence得到的p-value
就应该小。那如果有时候p-value偏大，应该会是什么原因呢？想了一天了，没想出来。
请教。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
sir ( 郎 ) 于 (Thu Apr 13 00:14:32 2006) 提到:
you need check confidence interval of odds ratio
k槫黓鸖萼匆C礘+詼<锓潐w悷hU>1詽+╗b湪┳悵萤P }}鉬u-宕猝耺J)$é鷶M8A |
|
n****y
发帖数: 656 | 17 如果有10个predictor,用proc logistic ，里面得到的odds ratio 是adjusted odds
ratio 。
但如果要得到unadjusted odds ratio 呢？需要每次一个predictor 放到proc
logistic里面做10次吗？
谢谢大家！ |
|
w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 18 Odds and Ends:
http://www.rei.com/outlet/search?crt=(attribute_value_nested=ca Category_x3A__x20_Outlet)( category_root)( _x38_001))(free_text==( Odds_x20_and_x20_Ends))&search=Odds and Ends&seq=1&hist=search,Odds and Ends
event, seems like a lot craps, at more than 70% off of their hyper retail
price. See if you can find anything interesting.
|
|
|
c****n
发帖数: 1108 | 20 你为啥care 匿名odd maker
大家真有信心 应该给trumo下狠注 自然odd就变了 |
|
c****u
发帖数: 2 | 21 REI offers more than 70% off Odds and Ends. Free shipping on $50+.
Gregory Z20 Pack $31.93
Lafuma Kailas 60 + 10 Pack $48.93
Women's Marmot Reyna Soft-Shell Jacket $68.53
Men's Rollerblade Fusion X3 Inline Skates $60.93
Optic Nerve Boots Randolph Sunglasses $12.93
more ...
http://www.rei.com/outlet/category/1/q/Odds+and+Ends
Also, if you don't mind to be my referral from Mr.Rebate, you can access REI
website through Mr.Rebate to get 3% cashback. Thanks.
http://www.mrrebates.com?refid=453183 |
|
z*******g
发帖数: 2429 | 22 很多人可能根本没听到过这个名词，但这个其实是MM们很常用的一个指标。
从本质上说，这个指标最重要的假设是大部分散户是没有什么消息，没有能力分析股市
，经常性买高卖低的SB。
一般情况当大户操作股市时，交易量往往是以百，千为基础的。但是散户交易时，由于
资金量较小，所以经常会以10，甚至是个位数为基础。这些散户投资者通常被认为是
unsophisciated (or stupid)的投资者，因此多倾向于买高卖低。
因此，当一个股票的交易出现大量的odd lot trade（买入）的时候，通常MM会认为散
户进场了，说明这个股票到高点了，该抛了。另一方面，出现大量odd lot卖出的时候
，说明股票到底点了，可以进场了。
简言之，散户在MM的眼里是无非是做实验的小白鼠而已。 |
|
l*****d
发帖数: 38 | 23 机构投资者不会把大单拆分成odd lots, 100就到头了，对于大户的fee structure，
odd lots要交额外的费用。 |
|
x****u
发帖数: 12955 | 24
The reason for that is because Giant has probably in the toughest conference
to get a playoff spot. The other top teams have a very good chance of
becoming division champion and thus lock down a spot. Giant's NFC east is
very tough, so if they can't get division champion, they might get edged out
of wild card spot too. Odds to win superbowl have to take odds of getting
into playoff into consideration first. |
|
d*********o
发帖数: 6388 | 25 http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/03/oddsmaker-49ers
One Nevada oddsmaker has Seattle as a co-favorite to win Super Bowl XLIX,
not the outright favorite.
Here are Super Bowl XLIX odds for all 32 teams, as well as AFC and NFC title
odds:
Super Bowl XLIX
49ers, Seahawks: 5-1.
Broncos: 11-2.
Patriots: 10-1.
Saints, Packers: 15-1.
Eagles, Panthers: 22-1.
Chiefs, Colts: 25-1.
Steelers, Bengals: 28-1.
Bears, Chargers: 30-1.
Giants, Ravens, Falcons, Cardinals, Lions: 35-1.
Cowboys, Texans: 4... 阅读全帖 |
|
c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 26 ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL XLIX
Team Odds
Green Bay Packers 13/5
New England Patriots 7/2
Seattle Seahawks 9/2
Denver Broncos 11/2
Dallas Cowboys 16/1
Philadelphia Eagles 17/1
Indianapolis Colts 20/1
Arizona Cardinals 25/1
Detroit Lions 25/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 40/1
New Orleans Saints 50/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Diego Chargers 80/1
Atlanta Falcons 85/1
Miami Dolphins 135/1
Carolina Panthers 150/1
Houston Te... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 27 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Mon May 7 00:10:50 2012 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：ATL + 7 = BOS (odd 5)
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
ATL + 7 = BOS (odd 5)
【打对勾者为正确选项】
(1) 玩家
√(2) 庄家
(3) 备用 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 28 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Mon May 7 00:11:38 2012 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：LAL + 3 = DEN (odd 5)
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
LAL + 3 = DEN (odd 5)
【打对勾者为正确选项】
(1) 玩家
√(2) 庄家
(3) 备用 |
|
|
z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 30 Texas has the same odds as OSU and better odds than Stanford, Wisconsin, VT,
OkSt ... |
|
s****h
发帖数: 3979 | 31 MSU 1/100貌似不错呀
这3个可以考虑
Oklahoma 12/1
Kansas State 12/1
South Carolina 12/1
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/
Team Odds
Alabama 6/5
Oregon 7/2
Florida 8/1
USC 10/1
Oklahoma 12/1
South Carolina 12/1
Kansas State 12/1
LSU 12/1
Notre Dame 15/1
Florida State 20/1
Georgia 40/1
West Virginia 80/1
Louisville 100/1
Field (Any Other Team) 100/1
Mississippi State 100/1
Clemson 100/1 |
|
m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 32 Outs One
Card % Two
Card % One
Card
Odds Two
Card
Odds Draw Type
1 2% 4% 46 23 Backdoor Straight or Flush (Requires two
cards)
2 4% 8% 22 12 Pocket Pair to Set
3 7% 13% 14 7 One Overcard
4 9% 17% 10 5 Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House
5 11% 20% 8 4 One Pair to Two Pair or Set
6 13% 24% 6.7 3.2 No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards
7 15% 28% 5.6 |
|
k******t
发帖数: 257 | 33 There is a easy way to estimate odds on next card.
odds=outs x2, so 1 outer is 2% roughly. |
|
h*******s
发帖数: 3932 | 34 actually i don't suggest you use any calculator. you should concentrate on
the opponents, positions, actions, tells, etc. for odds, you can remember
some typical patterns, then use the 2-4 thumb rule to do some rough
calculation.
http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/tips/the-2-4-rule-for-odds.htm
some powerful draws (assuming you have those outs):
1. flush draw with two overcards
2. open ended straight draw with two overcards
3. etc.. |
|
h*******s
发帖数: 3932 | 35 It's good to remember the odds for typical headsup situation, such as:
(1 is the largest card, 4 is the smallest card)
a) 11 v.s. 22 (such as AA v.s. KK)
b) 11 v.s. 23 (such as AA v.s. KQ)
c) 12 v.s. 33 (such as AK v.s. QQ)
d) 12 v.s. 34 (such as AK v.s. 76)
e) 13 v.s. 24 (such as AQ v.s. KJ)
f) 14 v.s. 23 (such as A2 v.s. KQ)
The odds vary a little depending on the suits and straight possibility but
not much. |
|
s********h
发帖数: 158 | 36 i think i'd better start working on calculating pot odds vs. card odds. what
's the most popular method? ratio or percentage? i thought ratio was until
recently after i saw a few prominent pros (like daniel negraneau) all using
the percentage method. |
|
a******e
发帖数: 95 | 37 Features:
- It supports 6 variants of poker, including Texas Hold'em, Stud, Omaha,
Razz, Stud 8 or Better, and Omaha 8 or Better. For odds calculation,
both exact and simulation methods are supported.
- AceStats employs many advanced AI technologies to speed up computation,
and it is one of the fastest odds calculators.
- Easy to use graphic interface. Click and compute, just that simple.
- As green as it gets. No installation needed. No writing to your Windows
registry. Don't want to ke |
|
I****r
发帖数: 795 | 38 有免费coupon，要的站内联系我
app 名 odds 和 odds free， 如果有空可以下个免费版，给个好点的rating ：） |
|
I****r
发帖数: 795 | 39 为啥要dos界面的？
online的好像不能算blind odds，我看了几个，都需要知道对方的牌。 blind odds的
计算量还是挺大的。我用的笨办法，如果只有pocket card知道的话，要算30多分钟。
不过，就169中组合，我算好了都存下来了。 |
|
I****r
发帖数: 795 | 40 不考虑对手的牌，就是blind odds，一上来all in 的赢率就是个概率。
实际情况中，永远不知道对手的牌。
我的这个算概率的除了blind odds，还考虑到对手也是知道他手中牌赢牌概率的，假设
他知道他的牌有小于50%的概率赢，我计算的时候就会把他滤除掉，这样算出来的概率
就接近实际的盈率了。毕竟对手不是所有的牌都回跟的。
我也能根据对手的可能有的牌的范围，计算概率，这个计算量小很多，算得很快。 |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 41 装了， 不是很喜欢这个interface. 也可能是不习惯。
有没有考虑写个poker income tracker? 应该比这更容易写。 现在市场上的太贵了。
个人觉得那比odds calculator作为手机app更有用。没人会整天抱个手机算range 和
odds, 但好的income tracker还是很方便的， 每次去casino， 都可以用到。 |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 42 装了， 不是很喜欢这个interface. 也可能是不习惯。
有没有考虑写个poker income tracker? 应该比这更容易写。 现在市场上的太贵了。
个人觉得那比odds calculator作为手机app更有用。没人会整天抱个手机算range 和
odds, 但好的income tracker还是很方便的， 每次去casino， 都可以用到。 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 43 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:45:19 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE@PHI 骑士赢 odds 1.15
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
骑士赢，odds 1.15
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 44 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:47:21 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE@PHI 76人赢 odds 5.1
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
CLE@PHI 76人赢 odds 5.1
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 45 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:54:27 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE-9.5 > PHI odds 1.9
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
CLE-9.5 > PHI odds 1.9
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 46 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:56:11 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE-9.5 < PHI odds 1.9
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
CLE-9.5 < PHI odds 1.9
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 47 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:58:51 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE@PHI > 185.5 odds 1.8
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
CLE@PHI > 185.5 odds 1.8
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 48 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 12:59:37 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：CLE@PHI < 185.5 odds 1.8
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
CLE@PHI < 185.5 odds 1.8
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 49 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 13:02:09 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：IND@ATL 走人赢 odds 1.7
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
IND@ATL 走人赢 odds 1.7
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
d*****r
发帖数: 39446 | 50 【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
⊙ 博彩开启于：Tue Apr 17 13:03:05 2007 类别：单选
⊙ 主题：IND@ATL 鹰赢 odds 2.1
⊙ 博彩题目描述：
IND@ATL 鹰赢 odds 2.1
【选项如下】
(1) 玩家
(2) 庄家
(3) 勿买
(4) 勿买 |
|
