p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 1 suppose we're dealt an SC (54s-JTs), we want to know the odds of flopping a
big draw, flush draw or 8-outer straight draw.
flush draw is trivial, total flop combo =(50 3)=19600. target flop combo =(
11 2)*(39 1)=2145. hence, Pr(FD)=2145/19600=10.94%.
somehow I cannot get the odds for straight draw (8 outers: OESD or double
belly) correct. the number I got is 9.7% whereas the correct number
available online (or from software) is 9.6%. could someone check to see what
's wrong with the following ca... 阅读全帖 |
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p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 2 true, when you use it, you don't really need the exact number. for instance,
you probably only need to know ~10% chance for FD, ~10% for OESD, ~20%
chance flopping FD/OESD (19.1% to be exact), and 2% flopping flush or str8.
but when I tried to derive the numbers (to help myself memorize them), it's
different: if I cannot get the exact number, something must be wrong. |
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s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 3 r u playing RUSH PLO?
I play it with mini buy-in and log-off/reload whenever doubled up.
At PLO, combination is too many. It is very touch to play deep-stack, TO ME.
I sometime push allin with two pairs if no SD/FD.
See quite a few players with deep stack. They fold a lot to pot-commit bet,
but stick with SD/FD a lot.
One tricky thing is, at/aft turn, many times it is math correct to allin/call pot
for stock stack. Call/Bet on flop is more important. But at multiway, it is
very tricky. Set with ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 4 I believe it is a call to MP's shove. You already put 30$ in and need $75 to
call on a $200 pot. You has the odds of nut OESD to call. |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 5 你想太多了... 75$ to commit yourself. if he has straight, you have redraw.
any thing else, you need to clear him on river. make the river bet small
relative to pot by bet turn large enough. 100$ on river is perfect sizing
shove. You also need to charge for all the draws. Like i said, Q can add a
lot outs to his hand since he does not know you have sets. He can add a pair
to his flush draw. Add a OESD or gut shot to his flush draw. Or 1 pair turn
2 pair. All these hand he will call your big bet on tur... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 6 75$ to win 230$ with a drawy board. Can't fold this especially facing a
short stack donk/fish. Include all sets 2 pair it is still a call. What do
u expect short stack fish to do with an oesd or nut flush draw here except a
shove? The only way u can fold this is facing a known rock. But then u have to add
kk or qq to his range probably. It is still closer to a call. |
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c******q
发帖数: 456 | 7 Without strong read to villian, I'd fold here.
Just throw my thoughts out for discussion.
(1) When you bet on the turn, you certainly represent a strong made hand (AK
/TT/33). If you have a tight image on the table, villian can reasonably
discount 33 (not totally though) from your range. There are three
combinations for holding TT, hence you have more chances holding AK,
especially when villian has a T in his hand (like ATh).
(2) When villian called on the flop, he definitely has sth (FD/OESD/se... 阅读全帖 |
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c******q
发帖数: 456 | 8 This hand is sort of tough to play because,
(1) villian's range is too wide, over pair, FD, SD, two pairs, set, or even
mid pair/two overs if he is capable
(2) hero's hand is a little bit too weak to play the whole stack
If I am not sure whether villian is willing to put the whole stack in with
TP, MD, OESD,or two overs, I'd fold here. Without those hands in his range,
I don't think hero's QQ is in a good shape. but if I knew villian had KJs, I
don't mind to call him (put in 230 to win 410, 1.8:... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****g
发帖数: 1128 | 9 Where are you guys from? LA? Maybe I can be friends with your wife someday.
I always want to move to California someday. She is doing very well
considering that she has only been playing poker for a short time. I think
she is very talented in poker.
I changed my Avatar and the website took some time to replace all of my
previous avatar, that's how all the confusion came from. I was confused too.
High Limit/Limit Game requires a lot of skills, which I didn't know
until a Las Vegas dealer told me ... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 10 谈谈我的2 cents. D 神将就着看看。
“对手range实在是太宽，能联系上
flop的％下去很多，”
---paired board 对手可以联系到的其实更少，对手是flush draw 还有value. 其实
这个SPR, 除了对手有J, 你都肯定够eqiuty commit。
“但是一旦联系上了，基本就不会走了。 另一种可能性是小对子，哥
觉着75能bet small pockets off，反而shove会把它们劝进来。”
--不全同意啊。 当然这要看人，不过，我觉得 75$和160$ all in 对鱼的影响还是不
一样的。 上次我有一把牌， 一条极品鱼，用 QQ叫了我reraise 40$ , flop J102,
snap call flop 60$, snap call turn 4 80$, river 7 硬是想了三分钟fold 给我
200$ shove。 我一shove 他就说，“i think 7 complets your straight", 我就知
道完了，他不会叫了。找个台阶下罢了。 这牌我下个 120$ 他肯定叫。 谁说鱼不会
f... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 11 谢谢mm老湿的分析
“对手range实在是太宽，能联系上
flop的％下去很多，”
---paired board 对手可以联系到的其实更少，对手是flush draw 还有value. 其实
这个SPR, 除了对手有J, 你都肯定够eqiuty commit。
～～哥想法很简单，对手纯的fit or fold，既然联系上的％比较低，就直接一个比较
大的cbet了结算了，并没有真正想要commit。（汗啊，当然有牌的时候也是2barrel
ramp up，保持consistency）
“但是一旦联系上了，基本就不会走了。 另一种可能性是小对子，哥
觉着75能bet small pockets off，反而shove会把它们劝进来。”
--不全同意啊。 当然这要看人，不过，我觉得 75$和160$ all in 对鱼的影响还是不
一样的。 上次我有一把牌， 一条极品鱼，用 QQ叫了我reraise 40$ , flop J102,
snap call flop 60$, snap call turn 4 80$, river 7 硬是想了三分钟fold 给我
200$ sho... 阅读全帖 |
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H*T
发帖数: 43 | 12 If he reads you well, he knows you do not have strong hand to call his shove.
on the flop, you do not have set or two pair since you check called. the
only hand makes sense based on your turn bet is 44 or 89, and possibly 78
with top pair plus oesd.
flop call and turn lead usually indicates top pair or over pair, or maybe a
draw. since effective stack is deep 150BB, I would fold here.
it does not matter what he has. he put tremendous amount of pressure on you.
on the other hand, he is unlikely t... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 13 Axs 的价值是体现在当桌上大部分人都很凶的玩draws （flush draw, combo draw,
straight draw， etc) 就像这手牌， 而在这种情况下，同样很凶得玩non-nut flush
draw , combo draw or OESD 就很危险
以前有一次在2+2 上看到一把牌谱， NL200, 4 way all in on the flop, 结果A
high flush draw 用high card 赢了。 应为4个人都是draw。。。 |
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