b*d
发帖数: 161 | 1 The force of the Hillary Effect
By Derrick Z. Jackson
Globe Columnist / October 18, 2008
THE BRADLEY EFFECT is fading into the Hillary Effect.
The former is the phenomenon that the polls overestimate how much white
voters will support a black candidate. The latter was in full force Thursday
at Barack Obama's first rally of the homestretch of the presidential
campaign. Huge numbers of women from New Hampshire and Massachusetts who
breathed fire into Hillary Clinton's campaign after Clinton was st |
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q******j
发帖数: 577 | 2 6. I think it is "used explosives to break rocks." and I think most of the
people here did not get this joke (because I have seen anyone pointing out the
real 笑点 yet).
You need some American background to understand it.
笑点 isn't 课程的一部分竟然是农场劳动 or 物理定律不是通过课堂教育，而是通过
农场劳动领悟的. Actually the audience did not laugh when Joe explained his
childhood curriculum.
They laughed after he said "(through such phenomenon) I learned light
travels faster than sound." Why? Because there is a classic American jo |
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B**W
发帖数: 2273 | 3 hehe, now we see who want to spend other people's money.
OK. We give the next generation something good and something important and
they may or may not need to pay something. The national debt is a short-term
phenomenon. Look at late 1990s.
Plus, should we pay highway fees because the highway system was built in
1960s and 70s? Just think things this way. It is always like the previous
generation left something good and something bad. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Here are a few important developments that remain strangely ignored. I say
strangely, but most readers understand why some news becomes news and some
does not.
1) Iraq. The United States military between 2007 and 2009 crushed al-Qaeda
in Iraq. It destroyed cadres of radical Islamists and Baathists. It
stabilized the country. It was one of the most stunning military
performances in modern history, and helped to destroy the image of a
competent and scary al-Qaeda. Yet everything from the recapture... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 by Rachel Marsden
02/20/2011
A new article in Der Spiegel magazine—the German equivalent of Time or
Newsweek—applauds George W. Bush for his vision of democracy in the Middle
East, and credits him for the fact that authoritarian regimes in the region
are being kicked to the curb.
"Painful as it may be to admit, it was the despised former U.S. President
George W. Bush who believed in the democratization of the Muslim world and
incurred the scorn and mockery of the Left for his conviction," says t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 Video: Barrasso, Inhofe tag-team Boxer on 1970s “New Ice Age” exposure of
Holdren
posted at 9:30 am on March 3, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
I’m old enough to remember when scientists issued alarms over a coming Ice
Age that would wipe out life on Earth on a massive scale. Senator John
Barrasso’s memory holds up pretty well, too, and he reminded everyone of
the consensus in the 1970s that the climate had begun to cool so
significantly that, er, the world needed massive government interventions in
energy... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 7 Video: "THE END OF THE BEGINNING." Or how the unions are waging a war they
cannot ultimately win
From Bill Whittle on YouTube:
The protests in Wisconsin are just the surface of a far, far larger
phenomenon taking place beneath the surface. In this Firewall, Bill examines
the three great waves of human civilization, and how what we are seeing in
Madison is a war the Unions ultimately cannot win.
Another great video in a long series of them: |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 8 By Noel Sheppard | June 21, 2011 | 00:59
Unless you've been hibernating somewhere, you know that conservative author
Ann Coulter has a new book out called "Demonic: How the Liberal Mob Is
Endangering America."
In an email interview with NewsBusters, Coulter talked about her book,
liberals, and other subjects including how the "MSM is both part of the mob
and inciters of the mob. That’s with the exception of Ed Schultz, whom I’m
pretty sure is an extraterrestrial":
NOEL SHEPPARD: You’ve got a new... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Most Americans blame Wall Street for the nation's economic predicament —
but they blame Washington more.
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
on Sunday.
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
on Sunday.
And in the democracy that fancies itself the capital of capitalism, more
than four in 10 people describe the U.S. economic system as personally
unfair to them. A USA TODAY/Gallu... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 December 24, 2011 | Filed under 2012 Presidential Race,Barack
by Michael Laprarie
So writes Timothy Dalrymple, who explores the interesting phenomenon of how
liberals are handling the stunning reversals in policies enacted by
President Obama, compared to the idealism of Candidate Obama:
[T]here’s no question that the Obama administration has been far less
different from the Bush administration than was promised during the campaign.
What’s so astonishing, though, is not that Obama has ext... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 “Beware, America. The Muslims are coming, and they look and act
suspiciously like you.”
December 30, 2011 | Posted by Rick Rice
That’s the opening line from a WaPo piece announcing an Arab-American
comedy tour aimed at combating what the comics are calling Islamophobia.
Hmmm.
When I see any accusatory word whose suffix is phobia, I’m immediately
suspicious. Usually those throwing such words about are those who are also
throwing an agenda at us.
But I digress… let’s first excerpt the piece:
... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 By Sahar Issa | McClatchy Newspapers
BAGHDAD — The departure of al Qaida-affiliated fighters from Iraq to join
the rebellion against Syrian President Bashar Assad in Syria has had one
benefit, Iraqi officials say: Violence has dropped in this country, in some
areas by as much as 50 percent in just a few months.
Iraqi officials declined to provide precise figures for the drop-off or to
estimate how many al Qaida-affiliated fighters have left the country for
Syria. But the impact of the departure,... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 13 After graduating from Brown University in 2009 with a bachelor’s degree in
comparative literature and completing a Fulbright scholarship in Brazil,
Cassie Owens was left with a few dollars on her stipend and no job in sight.
So, Ms. Owens returned home to her mother in Philadelphia.
“I moved back home pretty much for lack of money and prospects,” she says.
Owens’s cousin, Evon Burton, who also returned home after graduating from
Morehouse College in 2009, adds, “The choice is to go out and be in... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 “The main problem for young black men is not violent white men chasing them
. It is black on black violence.”
March 25, 2012 Posted by Rick Rice
I watched a local news report yesterday focused on a rally in support of
Trayvon Martin. The reporter was interviewing a mother who was near
hysterical in voicing her fear that her teenage son might also be set upon
by an assailant because her son is black and because her son wears a hoodie.
The reporter was eating it up. The crowd around the mothe... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 by Bill McBride
Here is a series I'm looking forward to reading ... from David Leonhardt at
the NY Times: A Closer Look at Middle-Class Decline
Arguably no question is more central to the country’s global standing
than whether the economy will perform better in the future than it has in
the recent past.
Over the next few months on this blog, several colleagues and I will
look in some detail at the challenge and at possible ways forward, and we’
ll encourage you to weigh in with questions... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 by Rick aka Mr. Brutally Honest
Once again, play the game where you imagine a Republican administration
doing what this one is doing and the fallout that would follow:
President Obama, who campaigned so passionately against what he called
the “revolving door” between the highest levels of government and the
lobbying/influence business, has absolutely no problem with it when his
friends do it.
The White House assures us that Plouffe merely went to speak to the
company about “mobile techno... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 17 After David Hubbard underwent a routine echocardiogram at his cardiologist's
office last year, he was surprised to learn that the heart scan cost his
insurer $1,605. That was more than four times the $373 it paid when the 61-
year-old optometrist from Reno, Nev., had the same procedure at the same
office just six months earlier.
"Nothing had changed, it was the same equipment, the same room," said Dr.
Hubbard, who has a high-deductible health plan and had to pay about $1,000
of the larger bill o... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 18 by Rick aka Mr. Brutally Honest
Fr. Lemieux is talking about societal breakdown:
It has been a week of anarchy in the world—mob violence, murder, chaos.
While the political way Tornado_warningahead in Egypt, Libya, Iran, Syria
is far from clear, and the proper response of US and Canadian governments is
far from clear, I hope we can all at least join together in fervent prayer
for peace in these and in all parts of the world. Lord have mercy on us.
We do see in this situation, however, th... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
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d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 20 I am just showing you a source since you asked for it. This phenomenon is
still credited to this date. And there has been refinement to the theory.
Firstly 2004 was Bush/Kerry, not Gore.
Things to consider:
GOP tend to slightly under perform in polls.
Romney is leading by almost 1 point in popular vote poll. While Kerry was
behind quite a bit.
Bush approval rating was slightly better than Obama at the same time in 2004
and |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 21 Jay Cost
November 2, 2012 6:00 AM
When I started making election predictions eight years ago, I had a very
different perspective than I do today. I knew relatively little about the
history of presidential elections or the geography of American politics. I
had a good background in political science and statistics. So,
unsurprisingly in retrospect, I focused on drawing confidence intervals from
poll averages.
Since then, I have learned substantially more history, soured somewhat on
political scien... 阅读全帖 |
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p***i
发帖数: 2119 | 22 英文太爛。這不是“myth”，而是“phenomenon”。Myth是跟現實不符的東西。
右棍們除了罵選民，還會什麼。投羅姆尼的人（看Fox聽Limbaugh的那些人大部分都是
腦殘）平均智商比投奧巴馬的人要低。 |
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b*******r
发帖数: 878 | 23 有来无往非礼也，你既然喜欢装B，那我就跟你玩玩。这是myth在webster上的解释，如
果你读不懂的话我可以给你解释。
套用你的文风，我也回赠一句：左棍們除了用屁股思考，罔顾事实，胡扯八道以外，还
会什么。投奥巴马的人（看cnn的那些人大部分都是: 腦殘）平均智商比投罗姆尼的人
要低一大截子。不信，你去接上看你那些老墨老黑同胞就是了。
Definition of MYTH
1
a : a usually traditional story of ostensibly historical events that serves
to unfold part of the world view of a people or explain a practice, belief,
or natural phenomenon
b : parable, allegory
2
a : a popular belief or tradition that has grown up around something or
someone; especially : one embodying the... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 December 16, 2012 by Warner Todd Huston
In their practice of “never letting a serious crises go to waste,”
liberals didn’t even wait for the full story to be reported before using
today’s shooting at a Connecticut school for political reasons.
CNN talk show host and British citizen Piers Morgan immediately took to his
Twitter account to inject politics into the criminal actions in Connecticut
demanding that the U.S. Constitution be altered to his satisfaction and
urging President Obama to imple... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 January 6, 2013 by Warner Todd Huston
The paper the Guardian has become Britain’s newest champion for a minority
of sorts. In a January 3 article, the UK paper has taken up the cause of
pedophiles who claim they are just “ordinary members of society” that only
need a little understanding.
The paper seriously presented pedophiles as but a misunderstood minority
that do no real harm. As Telegraph writer Damian Thompson points out, “this
is not some sick send-up” on his point. The UK Guardian is w... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 Stephen Harper: The Canadian prime minister has revolutionised politics in
his homeland
When thinking of Canada, I strongly doubt that the first thing to pop into
most people's heads would be "bastion of political conservatism". Yet in
this liberal country, prime minister Stephen Harper has carved out an
impressive reputation as one of the world's most successful centre-right
leaders.
Through two minority Tory governments (2006 and 2008), and since May 2011 at
the head of a majority government, ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 Dear All
Very strong odor in Waigaoqiao area, we do not know the stink smell source
and not clear about whether the odor is harmful for our health, so please
avoid going out of build. We've report this phenomenon to the government, if
we get any feedback from them, we will sent notice again. Thanks for your
cooperation!
各位同仁请注意：
我们发现整个外高桥区域空气中弥漫着浓烈的臭味，已无法识别臭气来源，不知其对身
体伤害情况，故请大家今天尽量避免外出，呆在公司建筑物内。相关情况我们已向政府
相关部门报告，一旦收到政府相关信息回复，我们将及时通过邮件告知大家。谢谢您的
配合！ |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 Sudden Flood of Asylum Requests at U.S./Mexico Border »
At the Otay crossing near the San Diego border last Monday, about 200 people
coming from Mexico gained entry to the United States all using the same key
phrase; they claimed they had a 'credible fear' of drug cartels. According
to KSAZ FoxPheonix:
So many were doing this that they had to close down the processing
center and move the overflow by vans to another station.
"They are being told if they come across the border, when t... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 29 Jews .2% of world population, 20% of all Nobel prices, 40% of USA nobel
price, won more than 160 nobels.
All Asian are junk compare to Jewish people in your standard.
Literature[edit source | edit]
Year Laureate Country Rationale
1927 Bergson-Nobel-photo.jpg Henri Bergson[9][10] France "in
recognition of his rich and vitalizing ideas and the brilliant skill with
which they have been presented"[11]
1958 Boris Pasternak cropped.jpg Boris Pasternak[9][10] Sov... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 30 Detroit's abandoned buildings draw tourists instead of developers
Detroit has seen an uptick in history buffs and photographers visiting its
ruins since its bankruptcy filing.
By Alana Semuels
December 25, 2013, 4:33 p.m.
DETROIT — He'd heard stories of ruin and blight, but that didn't prepare
Oliver Kearney for what he saw:
Prostitutes roaming the streets at 8 a.m., rubble-strewn parking lots
overrun with weeds, buildings taken over by bright pink graffiti, the
message scrawled on blackboards i... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 Hollywood asks California to cut taxes — for the film industry
You know things are bad when Hollywood liberals are asking California for a
tax break.
Film Works, an entertainment-industry advocate organization, recently
launched an online petition asking California’s film and TV enthusiasts to
lobby lawmakers to create greater incentives for production to stay within
state borders.
While operating costs in California have grown more expensive over the past
decade, other states and countries have... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 32 Global Warming Hysterics Now Blame Volcanos for Cooling
by Jammie
They can never admit they’ve been making this nonsense up, so now the
desperate climate change scammers are claiming volcanos are responsible for
the fact there’s been no warming since 1998.
The impact of volcanic eruptions on global warming could provide a new
explanation for the so-called “pause” used by sceptics to deny climate
change is happening, scientists have said.
According to a study in the US, models for predict... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 33 再写一篇, 今天这篇好像比昨天好
Dear XXX,
I am writing to express my unreserved opposition to SCA-5 on the grounds
that it will lead to state-sponsored discrimination. In the development of
modern American history, our state and nation have participated in
discrimination against some of our own citizens. During World War II, the
internment of Japanese-American citizens in prison camps represented a low
point in the history of our civil rights. The federal government detained U.
S. citizens just because they ar... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 34 再写一篇, 今天这篇好像比昨天好
Dear XXX,
I am writing to express my unreserved opposition to SCA-5 on the grounds
that it will lead to state-sponsored discrimination. In the development of
modern American history, our state and nation have participated in
discrimination against some of our own citizens. During World War II, the
internment of Japanese-American citizens in prison camps represented a low
point in the history of our civil rights. The federal government detained U.
S. citizens just because they ar... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 35 再写一篇
Dear XXX,
I hereby urge you to vote against SCA-5. SCA-5 allows public universities to
use race and ethnicity as a factor for admissions. This amendment is openly
racist. If passed, it will impose one of the most significant restrictions
on the the universal right of education for all children and youth. If
passed, it is definitely one of the most racist bills in the history of
California. If passed, it could open the door for discrimination on the
basis of gender or race in the recruitment... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 36 再写一篇
Dear XXX,
I strongly urge a "No" vote on SCA-5. SCA-5 allows public universities to
use race in admissions decisions. In 1997 former President Bill Clinton
insisted that he wants to continue in this direction--tilting the government
's emphasis from "race-based" programs like affirmative action toward
initiatives that target "economic need". That's where President Clinton
thinks this whole thing needs to be going. Programs to aid disadvantaged
students should focus on economic need alone an... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 37 本文的网路版本在这里: http://nosca5.blogspot.com/2014/02/sca5.html
反对SCA-5具体有效的步骤, 请转发
从我做起, 从现在做起! 我们还来得及反对SCA5. 目前, 加州众议院的80席中, 有55席
民主党, 25席共和党. 对这个法案SCA5的支持是党派分票, 所以我们只需要保证 2个以
上民主党议员勇敢地站出来, 投票反对, 我们就可以让法案胎死腹中. 现在我们可以做
的是写信给代表我们选区的加州众议员, 去他们的网站给他们写.
Step 1: 下面网站里选Act Now有两个请愿投票, 有时间先去投票, 这两个网站都需要
注册, 但是Change.org和Whitehouse.gov是最常见的请愿网站, 将来一定该还有用到的
机会, 花点时间注册并不吃亏. 不過必須強調這兩個投票實際效果是零, 並不能解決問
題, 其主要功能就僅僅是壮大声势.
http://www.saynosca5.com/
美亚团结促进会的United Against SCA5 - Please click here to sign letter to
con... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 Texas Middle School Principal Fired for Wanting English Only on Campus
via Breitbart Feed
Principal Amy Lacey of Hempstead Middle School was fired for announcing over
the intercom that students were not to speak Spanish on the school’s
campus. The school, located just 50 miles northwest of Houston, Texas, is a
fast growing Hispanic region, and Latino advocates insist that Spanish be
allowed in public schools.
Lacey was placed on paid administrative leave in December when she had made
the stateme... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 39 http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=2014060
In China only 18% took a positive view and and 59% a negative view toward
the US, while 25% of Americans viewed China positively and 66% negatively.
This phenomenon is even more glaring between China and Japan, where 73% of
Japanese respondents view China negatively and only 3% positively. Similarly
, 90% of Chinese respondents view Japan negatively and only 5% positively. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 40 Connecticut to super-rich residents: Please don't leave us
February 9, 2015 - 4:06 PM
By STEPHEN SINGER, Associated Press
HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — If you're a billionaire living in Connecticut,
chances are the tax department is keeping an eye on you.
In a state home to some of the richest Americans, tax officials go to some
lengths to keep them — or, more accurately, keep the billions of dollars in
revenue their income taxes generate.
Connecticut tax officials track quarterly estimated payments of... 阅读全帖 |
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H**U
发帖数: 1814 | 42 Anderson Cooper 360° @AC360 21h21 hours ago
#DonaldTrump is a phenomenon… I expect my grandchildren in a poli-sci class
will read about this - @MichaelCohen212 |
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G****r
发帖数: 5579 | 44 http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/07/news/economy/donald-trump-barry
But he's convinced he won't have to do either, saying he would take any bet
that Trump will not be elected.
"Truly, I'm not moving, and I don't think I'm joining the resistance," he
said in an interview with Bloomberg.
Diller attributes Trump's success in the polls so far to the "a phenomenon
of reality television as politics." And he said that Trump has learned from
"The Apprentice" that good reality television is built around conf... 阅读全帖 |
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w*****2
发帖数: 1458 | 45 http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/24/campus-race-warriors-demand
Hiring more African-American faculty, as campus protestors are demanding,
will necessarily reduce the percentage of Asian faculty.
It may be coincidental that the photojournalist the University of Missouri
social justice warriors attacked in public was Asian-American, but their
reaction wasn’t. Concerned Student 1950 tweeted, “It’s typically white
media who don’t understand the importance of respecting black spaces.”
Liberals have a... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 46 Every show has an end. Just like "The Apprentice" — gripping the first few
few seasons, tired and contrived in the last — Donald Trump's campaign is
aging toward death, one reckless outburst at at time. Although the casual
political junkie wouldn't know by the looks of most polls, the media fetish
with The Donald and his cultish following.
With primaries a bit less than 50 days out, at this point, previously
skeptical pundits have assumed not only that Trump is the front-runner in
the GOP primar... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********h
发帖数: 1001 | 47 主要就是说人们在调查的时候普遍不敢说真话，必须要装B装政治正确，所以电话调查
很多人嘴上说不支持trump，但是等投票的时候反而投给了trump
文中举过以前类似的例子，这叫Bradley效应。
具体反映在，trump在网络上的支持率要高于电话调查的支持率，对3000 GOP投票者调
查显示网络上支持率能高出6%
In 1982, California voters were supposed to elect former Los Angeles Mayor
Tom Bradley as the state's next governor.
Bradley went into the election with a sizable lead over George Deukmejian.
Exit polls projected a Bradley win. But when the ballots were counted,
Deukmejian came out the winner.
Thus, the "Bradley effect" was born — named as ... 阅读全帖 |
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l********n
发帖数: 759 | 48 trump-dibs.jpg
DIBS SHAME Kickstarter
Dibs is one of Chicago's most annoying and bizarre phenomenons. Local
Jonathan Pool has come up with a plan to make dibs participants social
pariahs by associating them with Donald Trump.
He's raising money on Kickstarter to print yard signs that read "Trump
Voters for Dibs: Because F--- You" to place on dibs participants' spots.
Dibs is a "societal plague" and retaliation can be serious, from slashed
tires to actual violence, Pool wrote on Kickstarter. He e... 阅读全帖 |
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x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 49 Not supporting any side, just reporting this phenomenon.
I think history will see Merkel's open border immigration policy as fuse
lighting up. |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 50 20,000 Massachusetts Democrats switch parties before Super Tuesday
Thousands of Massachusetts Democrats have denounced their party affiliations
since January 1 to jump across the aisle and join the ranks of Independent
or Republicans.
Nearly 20,000 Bay State Democrats, or 1.3 percent of the party's
Masachussetts population, left to vote in the Republican primary Tuesday.
More than 16,300 of that group have "unenrolled" or become Independent
voters, while 3,500 have joined the GOP.
Mass. Secretar... 阅读全帖 |
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