s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 1 先说说我的意见吧。你这个模式的假设是totally wrong.
1. 首先假设消费者是理性的，具有足够的市场知识。见鬼，怎么可能。没广告谁知道
你该买什么。
starbucks, apple store都不是白开，就是让你免费用，免费试，才可能造成影响，然
后才会出现跟风。
2. 退货，实体店退了以后你还会在逛逛吧。虚拟店，不怕你退，就怕你不来。退三件
还能留两件吧。形成惯性后，总是有你这个回头客的。不赚你的钱也能赚个人气。都是
优质客户，第一不可能。第二优质客户爱退货。家里有老婆爱囤货都知道。华人上的大
妈那个不是长买长退。那种看都不看就买的傻妞其实消费的并不多。
这些都是predicable irrational.（建议读读这本书，同时）。
综上，至少在消费类产品上，你的模式很难成功。人总是爱跟风和贪小便宜。也许存在
什么买螺丝的niche市场。
技术在看看有什么创新吧。 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 2 先说说我的意见吧。你这个模式的假设是totally wrong.
1. 首先假设消费者是理性的，具有足够的市场知识。见鬼，怎么可能。没广告谁知道
你该买什么。
starbucks, apple store都不是白开，就是让你免费用，免费试，才可能造成影响，然
后才会出现跟风。
2. 退货，实体店退了以后你还会在逛逛吧。虚拟店，不怕你退，就怕你不来。退三件
还能留两件吧。形成惯性后，总是有你这个回头客的。不赚你的钱也能赚个人气。都是
优质客户，第一不可能。第二优质客户爱退货。家里有老婆爱囤货都知道。华人上的大
妈那个不是长买长退。那种看都不看就买的傻妞其实消费的并不多。
这些都是predicable irrational.（建议读读这本书，同时）。
综上，至少在消费类产品上，你的模式很难成功。人总是爱跟风和贪小便宜。也许存在
什么买螺丝的niche市场。
技术在看看有什么创新吧。 |
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l*******e
发帖数: 583 | 3 i never own the Japanese trash
TM is going down! the class-action case will bring it down.
i dont know who will buy a Toyota after this.
those who drive a Camry are persons without a personality - plainly boring
and predicable. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4 American Banking News investigates the reason for the recent massive surge
in financial stocks, to a big extent predicated by the government's desire
to push Citi stock price over the $5 critical threshold "participation"
barrier.
As ABN notes: "The reason behind wanting the share price to go beyond $5 is
in relationship to institutional investors, who in many cases are prohibited
from investing in any stock under $5 a share. For example, pension funds
and mutual funds are some of those I’m refe |
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b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 5 SEC examining Warren Buffett's Burlington deal disclosure
For Mr Buffett's $26.3bn (17.6bn) landmark takeover of Burlington Northern
Santa Fe is now the subject of an early-stage examination by the Securities
& Exchange Commission (SEC).
The US regulator is understood to be looking into whether Mr Buffett and his
Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate told certain shareholders in Burlington
Northern about his plans to make a takeover offer. The Burlington deal was
predicated on the rising price of oil, |
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h*******y
发帖数: 1563 | 6 科学也要分自然科学和社会科学。社会科学俺同意你的观点，都是conculsion，predic
tion是扯淡，什么经济学家，股评家基本都是shit，自然科学大部分还是可以predicti
on的，毕竟还是实打实的做东西出来的，以前说天气预报扯淡，现在天气预报比十年前
准的不是一点 |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 7 this remind me of the Qiuzhihaoyue
Google was up big when he come here first and made that predication.
later, google dive no matter what. |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 8 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: whiteclouds (/ 参考消息 /), 信区: Military
标 题: ------ 疫苗产业与洛克菲乐集团 -------
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 27 20:31:19 2010, 美东)
Jeffry John Aufderheide
vactruth.com
05/25/2010
http://vactruth.com/2010/05/25/vaccines-rockefeller-social-control/
PART I.
History books proclaim with absolute certainty that the pinnacle of public
health is defined by the polio vaccine program. Disease finally conquered by
science. The polio effort was a benchmark for the public to mentally accept... 阅读全帖 |
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t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 9 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203367204576065781160852252.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc
Goldman Sachs' influential derivatives strategists are telling clients to
prepare for Bank of America to surge higher.
In a recent note, John Marshall and Maria Grant told clients to buy Bank of
America's (ticker: BAC) April $16 calls because investors have
underestimated the battered bank's potential to rally higher.
The battered stock declined 9.2% in the past year, and was recently trading
around... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******e
发帖数: 50 | 10 下面的分析有道理么，仅供讨论，凭此入市，赔了后果自负。
希望高手行家给些意见，目标价能到多少?
CCID Consulting: HK 8235 Aim Price: 1-12 HKD 2011-2012
Magic:
1. State owned company of China government, affiliation of Ministry of
Information and Industry, monopoly and dependable management
consulting business model. If the growth rate of its net income would
be 100% in 2010-2012, in 2012, each share would contribute 0.05 cent
to its shareholder.
2. To be a leading top tier IT private equity. The return of GEM
shares in Shenzhen Stock Exc... 阅读全帖 |
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l******c
发帖数: 2555 | 11 the current predication is RMB will appreciate 10% vs US$ a year, that's
enough.
If you move your RMB into USD, you need get 15% profit a year to beat this
10% depreciation considering the 33% short term tax rate (federal tax +
state tax).
It's very difficult to get 15% a year in the stock market.
In fact, everybody on this board is losing money compared with holding RMB
or CAD or AUD under the mattress. |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 12 发信人: cbot (cbot), 信区: Stock
标 题: Try to predict the market is not the way to go in trading
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 11 17:48:46 2009)
Trading is not a predication game.
It is a probability game. You must clearly define your setups
to trade. then you just act on it when the setup appears.
what you can do it is to adjust target, stop, time stop according to market
volatility, but that's it. you should never adjust your setups.
When you do this, you will never try to predict the market.
And you will... 阅读全帖 |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 13 I think index and bond future are easier to trade for small,
less informed players.
commodity has too much control by commercials and they can move the market
big and
their action is less predicable.
Maybe like penny stock market. |
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F********t
发帖数: 962 | 14 这种会被摘牌吗？
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275262-harbin-electric-loan-fra
The Harbin Chairman/CEO Has A History Of Fraudulent Loan Guarantee Documents.
We have obtained a settlement agreement reached between Harbin CEO Tianfu
Yang and China Construction Import Export Corp. In 2004, Mr. Yang, along
with his brother, fellow Harbin board member Tianli Yang, fraudulently
obtained the official seal of China Construction Import Export Corp. (CCIE)
to guarantee a loan for Tinafu Yang’s company.
In the s... 阅读全帖 |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 15 End Insanity Of The War on Drugs—Start With Decriminalizing Marijuana at Th
e Federal Level
Published: Tuesday, 20 Apr 2010 | 12:00 AM ET Text Size
Twitter LinkedInMore Share
Commentary & AnalysisRon Paul
U.S. Congressman (R-Texas)
Two-time Presidential Candidate
Physician, Obstetrics & Gynecology
In light of the recent drug-related violence in Mexico, it is appropriate to
reflect on how our current prohibition laws affect crime, law enforcement a
nd the economy.
Many will have the knee-jerk rea... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 16 Predication is just an entertainment. No one is taking it seriously.
Unless you have inside information, no one knows the employment number could
be this bad after strong APD number from yesterday. |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 17 It may or may not have a correction. That I don't know.
What if it doesn't correct? Will you be chasing at higher prices? Or you
are gonna just wait longer?
When it comes to manage money, what's more important is not how accurate
you predicate the future, but how you manage the risk when you are wrong.
gold |
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s********y
发帖数: 831 | 18 Like posting stock price predication daily like a robot, lol. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 19 The stock market said possible for my #10 predication.
No one believed it when I posted it. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 20 NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Imagine a company that has predicated its future on
building out large-scale projects in desert conditions. Now imagine the
technology the company uses doesn't have a long-term track record of
performing under intense heat.
You don't have to imagine the company. It's First Solar(FSLR), and based on
the revelation in its Tuesday conference call with analysts that high-
temperature degradation issues have surfaced with its panels, it's the most
alarming prospect for a compa... 阅读全帖 |
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v******r
发帖数: 1630 | 21 Jim Chanos 说他在烧 TSLA，NFLX.
"Caveating this section with the warning any stock he mentions, the audience
should assume he’s short, Chanos launches into a soliloquy on recent
frenzied stock moves:
“The problem like Tesla and Netflix .. is they have gone beyond an
interesting product or innovation, to becoming cult stocks, to becoming sort
of investments or speculation despite the fundamentals.
“The stock values are so predicated on the future ... which is so easy to
predict,” he adds a bit sarcast... 阅读全帖 |
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s***m
发帖数: 6197 | 22 好贴要留着
别老删了，呵呵
发信人: lookthere (just looking), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 该跌了！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 20 13:35:45 2014, 美东)
In my totally irresponsible guestimation out of
acknowledged ignorance and based on the prof's decent
predication last time he hinted, the correction
or a huge drop of the big board had not been scheduled as a
spectacular circus show as sequential stunning waterfalls
in concert with an invisible hand based on a true
similar curve but not too familiar bull-bear fighting course of
lo... 阅读全帖 |
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r***s
发帖数: 1805 | 23 自己的钱还是自己管理放心,这帮fund manager反正是别人的钱, 到时候输光就哭爹叫
娘了,别上这儿开fund的人的当.
NM这家伙all in option被外婆了,哈哈:
"Li said in the letter that he made a series of "aggressive transactions"
over the last three weeks to make up for poor returns in December. He said
he bet on stock price options, predicated on the broader market rising. But
stock indexes fell, causing the huge losses along with several undisclosed
direct investments, according to the note. " |
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O***p
发帖数: 1333 | 24 Li said in the letter that he made a series of "aggressive transactions"
over the last three weeks to make up for poor returns in December. He said
he bet on stock price options, predicated on the broader market rising. But
stock indexes fell, causing the huge losses along with several undisclosed
direct investments, according to the note.
我猜是一月SPY回调的时候，赌了回210. |
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D**D
发帖数: 1832 | 25 "Li said in the letter that he made a series of "aggressive transactions"
over the last three weeks to make up for poor returns in December. He said
he bet on stock price options, predicated on the broader market rising. But
stock indexes fell, causing the huge losses along with several undisclosed
direct investments, according to the note."
----
"There are old traders, bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders."
This is what happens when newbie traders get bold and try to corner the
mark... 阅读全帖 |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 26 Google had predication api too, the key is if they support the correct model
for stock data. |
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N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 27 "The second quarter 2015 market environment remained extremely challenging
for our steel and metals recycling operations," said Mark D. Millett, Chief
Executive Officer. "The ongoing flood of steel imports continued to pressure
steel product pricing to a greater degree than the benefit realized from
lower scrap costs, compressing second quarter steel margins. However, due
to continued solid U.S. steel demand, our second quarter steel shipments
improved, which offset most of the margin compressi... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 28 Here's what Wall Street is predicting for stock market in 2016
Akin Oyedele
Nov. 28, 2015, 6:00 AM 173,206 8
Most of the big stock-market forecasts for 2016 are in.
Wall Street steadily lowered its expectations for the market as 2015
unfolded.
On Thursday December 24, the S&P 500 closed near 2,061. Last December, the
median year-end target for 2015 among the top strategists was higher at 2,
213 according to Bloomberg.
Based on the forecasts we've received so far, many of the most bull... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******p
发帖数: 524 | 29 尽管VIX在熊市会飙升，但much more volatile and much harder to predicate， 指
数ETF走向比较easy to track. |
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m*******v
发帖数: 294 | 30 Predication is hard. To have 70% correct is already very good. |
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h*****5
发帖数: 566 | 31 http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/dow-50000/?z=526424
A massive stock market rally is at our doorstep, according to several noted
economists and distinguished investors.
Larry Edelson, a Money and Markets editor, predicts: “The Dow Jones
Industrial will lead the way higher and catapult to 31,000 over the next two
years.”
Ron Baron, CEO of Baron Capital, thinks: “It’s going to be 30,000.”
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, believes
it will go even higher: “... 阅读全帖 |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 32 predication is hard, especially about future. |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 33 拐弯抹角 is the key. so reaction is better than predication. |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 34 in fact, one need both predication and reaction.
trading is never easy. |
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c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 35 up market,
enough pull back,
very predicable. |
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p*u
发帖数: 51 | 36 Potential EB Visa Number Exhaution in July and Probable Actions of State
Department or USCIS
* By now, people understand that the sources of potential action by the
State Department or USCIS are predicated on the two important facts. One was
the information from a government source that there were only about 40,000
numbers left for the entire EB visa numbers for the FY 2007 which ends on
September 30, 2007. The second important fact was that reportedly the USCIS
alone had far more than 40,00 |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 37 Potential EB Visa Number Exhaution in July and Probable Actions of State
Department or USCIS
By now, people understand that the sources of potential action by the State
Department or USCIS are predicated on the two important facts. One was the
information from a government source that there were only about 40,000
numbers left for the entire EB visa numbers for the FY 2007 which ends on
September 30, 2007. The second important fact was that reportedly the USCIS
alone had far more than 40,000 I-48 |
|
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s****e
发帖数: 175 | 39 是通过EAD.
Salary Payments In an LLC
Perplexed by what you can deduct and what you can't in a limited liability
company? Our Tax Expert helps you make heads or tails of how to handle those
all-important salary payments to your members.
By Laura A. Collins | July 10, 2000
Q: In an LLC, if one or more of the members is paid a salary, does the
salary count toward the distribution to the members at year-end, or are the
salaries considered an expense which reduces the net profit to be
distributed?
A... 阅读全帖 |
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s******5
发帖数: 141 | 40 maxmartin,your predication this time is much better than last time :) I was
greened in the past Saturday. Hope you will be too |
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A******n
发帖数: 2976 | 41 great predication！还真在节前 |
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s*********u
发帖数: 2535 | 42 very accurate predication!!
go nsc and tsc! |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 43 why 5555? Based on my predication, there is no much PD between 07.07 and 07.
11. The three month may
need only one month to be cleared. |
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I******y
发帖数: 815 | 44 Nice predication. Good job. |
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w**********c
发帖数: 136 | 45 To be honest, Mr. O never gave Mr. P accurate VB predication -- his answer
is filled with "unlikely", "not possible", "no estimates at this time", blah
blah blah.
Do you really believe Mr. P can "NEGIOTIATE" with Mr. O? |
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a***n
发帖数: 665 | 46 don't be to greedy, man.
p8388 doesn't control the GC issurance, his/her predication
must be based on some pretty reliable/accurate estimation.
how about you try to give us a good prediction? |
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f****n
发帖数: 4615 | 47 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wzxt (wzxt) 于 (Sat May 14 11:39:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
P8388有一些过激言论，但是主要是针对个别人的长期作为。并不针对大家。更重要的
是P8388提供了很多较为准
确的信息。从去年夏天开始，P8388就提供了1）2010年较为准确的剩余名额，2）预示
2011年的大量剩余名额。
而且一只坚持并继续打听消息。所以封P8388似乎有失公允。
要求版主明鉴或解释。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
feifeizhu (福福猪) 于 (Sat May 14 11:44:11 2011, 美东) 提到:
我觉得P8388很有娱乐精神。给我们带来了欢乐。而不是闹心/
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wzxt (wzxt) 于 (Sat May 14 11:49:51 2011, 美东) 提到:
agree
☆────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 48 and actually why should O consider next year's SO now? all predications are
wishful thinking.
's |
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a*******r
发帖数: 122 | 49 To be honest, for people who expect the date can jump to beyond Aug. 2007,
it is not realistic in the first place. There are so many many Indian guys
waiting in the line, and it is almost impossible to move that much.
On the other hand, for people with priority date before Aug.2007, it
probably just means another few months wait, not a big deal if you can just
hang on to your job. For me, I would rather be current in a month that is
not in a 'big wave' or Tsunami, in which a case with earlier p... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 50 by pattaya and CO
Department of Visa Bulletin, Mitbbs University
Introduction
This study is to predicate the VB for EB2CI in the next few months based on the simple calculation.
MY prediction for EB2IC is based on the average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
I would not do calculation on EB3 as this study is specifically for EB2IC.
I believe this number can reflect and match the real number.
Materials a... 阅读全帖 |
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