W**********E
发帖数: 242 | 1 本想按下列步骤做一个关于PROPENSITY SCORE的SIMULATION，但有问题，不知道哪位高
手能指点一下？
１） LP=B０+B１＊X１+B２＊X２+。。。。。+B１０＊X１０+
RAND（＂NOMRAL＂，０，１）＊０。３；
２） P=EXP（LP）／（１+EXP（LP））；
３） GENERATE ０／１ DUMMY TREATMENT GRP USING BERNOULLI（P）
４） GENERATE OUTCOME
Y=C０+C１＊X１+C２＊X２+C３＊X３+。。。。+BETA＊GROUP；
然后根据上面SIMULATED的数据，做分析
５）先用PROC LOGISTIC；
MODEL TRT=X１ X２ X３ 。。。。X１０；
输出PREDICATED PROBABILITY（PROPENSITY SCORE）。
６） 然后做模型；
模型１）
Y=GROUP PROPENSITY；
模型２）
Y=GROUP X１ X２ X３。。。。X１０；
两个模型的GROUP的系数差太多，模型１）差的很大，和PROPENSITY SCORE的作用想反
。我感 |
|
W**********E
发帖数: 242 | 2 No, I need covariates X to simulate outcome Y because Y are also associated
with Xs plus treatment group. The settings are common for propensity score
modeling.
There are no problem with model Y=Xs Group. The estimates for X and Groups
are very close to true parameters.
There are problems with model Y=group propensity. So I think it might be
something wrong with the way I generate group and propensity.
奇怪的就是很多文章都是说PROPENSITY SCORE ADJUSTED模型会好，估计的系数会有更小偏差 |
|
W**********E
发帖数: 242 | 3 我只是给个SAS例子。原来的SIMULATION我在R里做了２０００次，不过是算TYPE I
ERROR RATE 和POWER。TREATMENT GROUP的P－VALUE ON AVERAGE两个模型（adjusting
ALL covariates vs adjusting for PROPENSITY SCORE）差很多,adjusting for
propensity score的POWER低很多. 我才仔细看单个数据的ESTIMATE，发现很多次同一
个数据两个模型TREATMENT GROUP的结果很不一样，这让我觉得很费解。实际分析数据
中我觉得调整ALL X或PROPENSITY SCORE差别是有但不会太大。就算PROPENSITY SCORE
的ESTIMATE结果 on average 接近TRUE PARAMETER，但POWER比ADJUSTING ALL X还低很多，还是很难
理解。
如果没人觉得我产生GROUPING的方法有问题，那到好了。包子给你，多谢帮忙
monticarlo |
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y*****5
发帖数: 62 | 4 are you sure PROPENSITY SCORE ADJUSTED模型 means include propensity score as
a covariate in the model?
I usually use propensity score to weight outcome, then have smaller bias.
associated
更小偏差 |
|
A2
发帖数: 588 | 5 How to calculate the odds Ratio using propensity score in stata
I used the stratification(quintiles) matching method and have calculated the
propensity score. However, how can I use these propsensity scores to
calculate my odds ratio? I think I need to adjust these quintiles, but any
expert can give me an example of the stata code to calculate the odds ratio?
Thank you so much! |
|
s*******9
发帖数: 35 | 6 I am not "niu ren". Here is my thought.
Propensity score can only help you control known confounders, which means
you need to be confident that the variables you are going to use to create
your propensity score can sufficiently predict the selection into one of
your exposure groups. Instrumental variable does not have such limit.
However, it is very hard to find a good instrumental variable. In health
service research, there seems no existing guideline that can help you select
an IV.
If you can |
|
b******2
发帖数: 654 | 7 两个group,用propensity score matching得到 500 病人， 1000个健康人， 应该用什
么test 比较matched group的 continuous and binary outcomes?
1：1 propensity score matching will need to use paired t-test/signed rank
test for continuous, McNemar for binary outcome.对1:2 matched ， 好像不能用
。 谢谢！ |
|
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l********s
发帖数: 430 | 9 use logistic regression including propensity score as a covariate.
the
ratio? |
|
b**********i
发帖数: 1059 | 10 propensity score 不是就应该跟 treatment variable相关吗？ |
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W**********E
发帖数: 242 | 11 是，但是模拟中加了PROPENSITY SCORE，TRT GROUP的系数变的非常离谱，本来是应该
REDUCE BIAS才对。所以非常费解,只能往HIGH COLLINEARITY上想. |
|
b**********i
发帖数: 1059 | 12 propensity model 玩了很久，不过一直不求甚解。你这个model还算是简单的。x1-x10
都是什么的样的variable？ |
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b**********i
发帖数: 1059 | 13 用propensity score的方法有： 1）as covariate; 2) quintile stratification and
pooling later on; 3). matching; 4). inverse probability weighting. |
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W**********E
发帖数: 242 | 14 问题不是模型复杂与否，我只是给了个例子。问题是调整PROPENSITY SCORE后，竟然
TREATMENT的系数估计会有更大的偏差，这和其他文献的发现相反，所以想知道哪里出
了偏差。可是我看不少文献就是一样的方法做SIMULATION
x10 |
|
e****t
发帖数: 17914 | 15 请问有没有什么好用的user written code for propensity score matching？
一直没搞懂 psmatch2 怎么用 （match for two samples on 3-5 observed variables）
有大包子 |
|
t*****8
发帖数: 157 | 16 大家generate propensity score 的时候， 是把所有相关的varibales都放到logistic
model里面， 还是只是把significant 的variables?
谢谢大家了。 |
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k****n
发帖数: 165 | 17 如果1000个健康人都是unique的（没有用一个健康人match2个或以上病人的情况），可
以take average of the 2 matched control observations within each pair.
Besides,why use 1:2? Ppl use 1:K when they have a rich control set but
usually K is much larger than 2. Do pay attention the balance of the
propensity score in each matched pair for observations from treatment and
control group. This is the advantage of using matching versus inverse
weighting as it is obvious for you to check whether you have good matched
pairs. For binary treatme... 阅读全帖 |
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a***g
发帖数: 2761 | 18 看不懂你说的什么意思
不过好像random forest和propensity score关系比较大
也许对你有帮助 |
|
d******o
发帖数: 59 | 19 先把名词用对：
是nonresponse weighting吧。
那个unresponse probability,应该是response propensity.
如果instruction没有提到race,你算response propensity不需要加入race.
如果你只是要reponse propensity,你不需要用特别的survey procdure,就用普通的
logistic就好。
你的nonresponse weights就是1/response propensity.
我不明白的是，你这是什么意思
“这个样本的取样strata是race，就分为白人和黑人两种。一共分8次取了8个小样本，
联合起来总共有1600多个observation。
我的想法是对每一个batch做unrespond weight，因为每一次取样的时候的response可
能都会不同。”
你要针对每个batch，作一次模型，然后有8个不同的response propensity的模型吗 |
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N********a
发帖数: 248 | 20 I want to do propensity score analysis. I have already fit a logistic
regression and got the predicted probability as propensity score. But how to
stratify these data according to the propensity score in R? If I want to
get 5 strata, what function should I use?
Thanks. |
|
b**********i
发帖数: 1059 | 21 Wow it is complicated. I offer a naive approach. Let's just look at ladies
with ons. they serve as their own comparison group. Multiple sexual
intercourses with one guy constitutes just one observation. We look at:
starting_with_ons (yes/no) (the term ons needs to be adjusted and carefully
defined as compared to non-ons)
and
Ending_in_marrige (yes/no) - or the subjective falling_in_love (yes/no)
answer from questionare.
Since there are multple correlated observations within each subjects, mixed... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 23 他们不懂 ‘a propensity to do us harm’
propensity 可以随意定义的，哈哈。 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 Headed for the Rocks in European Waters
By Daniel Hanson Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Filed under: World Watch, Culture, Economic Policy
A united Europe is impossible given cultural and economic mismatches.
The eurozone is going to split, whether through economics or politics.
Having had time to digest the latest round of euro rescue efforts, markets
do not seem to be terribly optimistic. The euro is down, equities markets
remain unsettled, and, after a brief reprieve, sovereign bond yields in
tro... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 October 30, 2012 Doug Johnson
The new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of
1,000 likely Ohio voters – taken from last Monday through Thursday – shows
Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. That
represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but
reflects a race that remains statistically tied. Even the swing is within
the margin of error, so it is possible the candidates were tied last week
when Romney lead by 2 perc... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 26 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: beijingren (to thine own self be true), 信区: Military
标 题: 小黄人以为拿来公民就保险了，中美开战，照样遣返你
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 26 09:58:56 2017, 美东)
White House does not rule out registering or deporting people from countries
that have ‘a propensity to do us harm’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-does-not-rule-out-registering-or-
deporting-people-from-countries-that-have-a-propensity-to-do-us-harm-
192117578.html |
|
b*****9
发帖数: 8922 | 27 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
city (city) 于 (Wed Jun 15 14:03:13 2011, 美东) 提到:
bless，一定没问题
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stilconfused (dahu) 于 (Wed Jun 15 14:18:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
bless！！！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
server (Server) 于 (Wed Jun 15 14:19:41 2011, 美东) 提到:
bless
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
pdd (胖嘟嘟) 于 (Wed Jun 15 14:20:05 2011, 美东) 提到:
祝福
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
GMAx (GMAx) 于 (Wed Jun 15 14:23:41 2011,... 阅读全帖 |
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L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 28 亚洲女都这样，没办法，女人都倾向找高大的，五官有棱角的，肌肉发达的，代表了更
多的睾丸酮，更大的生存几率，应该是进化出来的一种propensity。
国男要去迎合这种自然倾向，去练肌肉，去进入社会上层，这样就可以给漂亮白女和国
女“安全感”。多少白女外F老中，还不是因为李小龙给她们的功夫猛男的印象？李小
龙这种肌肉男，就迎合了她们的propensity。 |
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p****e
发帖数: 165 | 29 学统计也好些年了，但是觉得学校学的运用不到实际工作中，以前学课程整天和
regression/distribution/hypothesis test打交道，实际工作数据根本无法满足这些
模型的前提条件。说说我的两个被困扰很久的问题吧：
1. Valid "Impression" Size
比如我希望评价我公司投放的不同广告的表现（比如CTR为一个衡量标准），
impression（表示广告呈现的数量），clicks (表示呈现的广告被点击）， CTR:
click-through rate (=clicks/impression)我有不同的广告，相对应的就有不同的
impression, clicks, click-through rate (CTR)
现有A/B两种广告：
A: impression不够，只有10次，被点击了1次，CTR=10%,
B: impression有1000次以上，被点击10次，CTR=1%。
如果只按CTR排序，马上得出A表现好，可是这是在不充分的impression下才有的。
问题就出来了，我现在有A/B/C/.....大概几千种广告，每个impres... 阅读全帖 |
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f**d
发帖数: 768 | 30 这是一本计算神经科学的优秀著作，全文拷贝这里（图和公式缺），有兴趣的同学可以
阅读
如需要，我可以分享PDF文件（－－仅供个人学习，无商业用途）
From Computer to Brain
William W. Lytton
From Computer to Brain
Foundations of Computational Neuroscience
Springer
William W. Lytton, M.D.
Associate Professor, State University of New York, Downstato, Brooklyn, NY
Visiting Associate Professor, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Visiting Associate Professor, Polytechnic University, Brooklyn, NY
Staff Neurologist., Kings County Hospital, Brooklyn, NY
In From Computer to Brain: ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1051 | 31 1. build a lookalike model to predict the likelihood of young male and
derive the propensity score
2. use the propensity score to correct the bias
you
for
a |
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l*******s
发帖数: 1258 | 32 其实Propensity score就挺好用的
关键是用什么样的方法取得Propensity score
最简单的linear regression或者logistic之类的
多考虑下如何用更好的feature engineering来表达data set的各种性质。 |
|
a**y
发帖数: 6501 | 33 注意, include了 1998 through 2009 Lexus
Toyota 起先暗示责任在生产部件的CTS
后CTS辩论说, 他们2005才开始给Toyota供应部件, 而这个加速的问题是自1999起就有
总之, 还在慢慢release, 看来大多车都有问题了
http://www.wvrecord.com/news/224331-trio-says-toyota-engines-accelerate-on-their-own
"Vehicles equipped with ETCS-I have a dangerous propensity to suddenly
accelerate without driver input and against the intentions of the driver,"
the suit states. "This increased propensity for runaway acceleration stems
in part from the ETCS-I's vulnerability to electronic con |
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a********e
发帖数: 5251 | 34 I was surprised to see such politically incorrect comments on Youtube:
Top Comments
1. "Monkeys usually have a deluded sense of self-importance. In your
case, there is no exception. Tell me, why do blacks represent 55% of
America's jail & prison populations? Let me guess, you think it's
discrimination! Well, I think it's because they have a high propensity to
commit crime (rapes, muggings, murders, car jackings etc). Remember, black
only comprise 15% of the USA population. Funny, this tr... 阅读全帖 |
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i***z
发帖数: 7508 | 35 洗脑教育的结果。 看看我们现在学的数学是古希腊的， 法律制度是希腊，罗马起源的
。 科学技术也是西方发源的。不过，这个书批评的也很多：
The book has been criticized by Ricardo Duchesne for offering a diffuse definition of the West which Morris envisions encompassing not only Europe but all civilizations descending from the Fertile Crescent, including Islam, and a propensity to level out fundamental differences between the development of the West and the rest, which disregards the singular role[clarification needed] of Europe in shaping the modern world
2 |
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s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 36 一直很喜欢Peter Lee 的文章。
Japan poured oil on troubled waters
By Peter Lee
In the fuss over Japan's detention of the Chinese fishing vessel and its
captain, Zhan Qixiong, after a scuffle
near the Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands, the world received a foretaste of how
World War III might break out in
the China Sea.
All it takes is a confrontation at some contested but otherwise
insignificant rock, a combustible combination
of rhetoric, provocation, and retaliation, an American propensity for
meddling, and the |
|
c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 37 Jeremy Page, A Chinese Stealth Challenge? Wall Street Journal, Jan. 5, 2011
(front page).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870380870457606167
Quote:
(a) "The exact origin of the photographs is unclear, although they appear to
have been taken by Chinese enthusiasts from the grounds of or around the
Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute in western China, where the J-20 is in
development. A few experts have suggested that the pictured aircraft is a
mock-up, rather than a functioning prototy... 阅读全帖 |
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i******s
发帖数: 8734 | 38 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/15/MNG
BART closes Civic Center, Powell stations
(08-15) 18:06 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- BART has closed the Civic Center, Powell
and Montgomery stations in downtown San Francisco after about 75 protesters
gathered on the Civic Center platform to express anger over the transit agen
cy's decision to cut underground cellular phone service for three hours Thur
sday evening in an effort to quell a protest.
The Muni Metro stations at the same locati... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 39 Here you come again, slinging mud at US.
It is common knowledge that gasoline costs less in US than in Europe,
because Europe has a propensity to tax--and impose HIGH tax.
(1) The tax in this section applies to gasoline only (another rate for
diesel, in both Germany and US).
fuel tax
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax
("In the United States, the fuel tax receipts are often dedicated or
hypothecated to transportation projects so that the fuel tax is considered
by many a user fee. In other coun... 阅读全帖 |
|
v****o
发帖数: 978 | 40 Chinese economic reform and development: achievements, emerging challenges
and unfinished tasks
Jane Golley and Ligang Song
The economic transformation that has taken place in China since the late
1970s is now regarded as one of the most significant social changes in human
history. Within just three decades, China has succeeded in transforming
itself from a centrally-planned closed economy into one of the world’s most
dynamic and globally-integrated market economies. The dynamics unleashed by
De... 阅读全帖 |
|
w***f
发帖数: 20 | 41 Small-Stick Diplomacy in the South China Sea
南中国海的“小棒”外交
James Holmes, Toshi Yoshihara
April 23, 2012
原文链接：http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/small-stick-diplomacy-the-south-china-sea-6831
大概因为家庭背景，我本人相对来说比较关心国外学术界对中国海上力量的分析，
相对于国内一帮到处打打杀杀的喊声，痛斥TG卖国，国外一般分析都是中国这次做的很
聪明，我也想尽我之力，多翻译一些这类的文章，让大家多看看一些比较深度的事件分
析，不过因为这类文章都比较长，我的英语只能说是一般，时间也没有那么多，只能是
尽力而为了。
关于作者
James Holms是美国海军战争学院（U.S. Naval War College）战略学副教授，
Toshi Yoshihara（看名字是个日本佬）为亚太问题the John A. van Beuren研究员，
他们是大西洋月刊2010年度最佳图书Red Star over... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******n
发帖数: 1721 | 42 申明一下，
自闭本身不会导致这种悲剧的。
自闭是一种神经系统的失调，不是精神问题。
自闭和暴力也没有必然联系。
各种相关揣测是不合时宜，也是不科学的。
ARI Autistic Global Initiative Committee's Statement on the Newtown, CT
Tragedy
The staff at the Autism Research Institute is deeply saddened by yesterday's
tragic events at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. In
the hours following the attack, some in the media reported the shooter may
have been diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder. This morning, the
leadership of ARI's Autistic Global Initiative... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*********7
发帖数: 5207 | 43 楼主还是先把自闭症的定义和mental disorder的定义分别搞清楚再来发言吧。
ARI Autistic Global Initiative Committee's Statement on the Newtown, CT
Tragedy
The staff at the Autism Research Institute is deeply saddened by yesterday'
stragic events at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.
Inthe hours following the attack, some in the media reported the shooter
mayhave been diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder. This morning,
theleadership of ARI's Autistic Global Initiative project - a committee
ofadults diag... 阅读全帖 |
|
I******a
发帖数: 3812 | 44 http://gyral.blackshell.com/names.html
Visit the original once in a while. Apparently, it's chock full o' updates.
Slur Represents Reasons/Origins
51st Stater Canadians Self-explanatory.
Abba-Dabba Arabs Used in the movie "Betrayed" by rural American hate group.
Abo Australian Aboriginal Derogative shortened term for Aboriginal.
Adolf Germans Hitler, of course. Generally thought of the worst person ever.
Ahab Whites From Moby-Dick. Ahab hunted the white whale.
Ainu Japanese Aboriginal Originall... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*****r
发帖数: 11545 | 45 You think it is easy?
It requires lots of patience and talent of design. It is very hard to
measure and cut wood into joining pieces. Those who have propensity to
become carpenters can do many other things. Think about Einstein, he made
ugly stools.
I won't even trust some people at laying bricks.
Maybe falling trees is a good task. Or picking fruits, vegetables. |
|
o*****t
发帖数: 1540 | 46 基本上是说，一老爸在电影院看电影，在还没开始正式放映的时候给他女儿发短信，坐
在他后面的一老头（退休警察）警告他不要发短信，两人发生口角，后这老爸似乎把爆
米花扔向这个老头，老头开枪打死这个老爸，并打伤这老爸的妻子。
http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/14/justice/florida-movie-theater-sho
(CNN) -- A 71-year-old ex-Florida cop stared silently into a closed-circuit
camera Tuesday, listening to his defense attorney and a judge go back and
forth on whether he should be charged with second-degree murder.
Curtis Reeves told Pasco County authorities that he fired his .380 semi-
automatic handgun in a movie theater Mo... 阅读全帖 |
|
p********7
发帖数: 18007 | 47 Supreme Court of the State of New York
Appellate Division: Second Judicial Department
D39254
G/nl
AD3d
Argued - June 17, 2013
MARK C. DILLON, J.P.
THOMAS A. DICKERSON
LEONARD B. AUSTIN
ROBERT J. MILLER, JJ.
2012-08907 DECISION & ORDER
Gui Ying Shi, respondent, v McDonald’s Corporation,
et al., defendants, 5121 5th Avenue, LLC, appellant.
(Index No. 6964/10)
Kenney Shelton Liptak Nowak LLP, New York, N.Y. (Michael L. Stonberg of
counsel), for appellant and defendants.
Caruso Glynn, LLC, Fresh Mea... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*********4
发帖数: 5125 | 48 美联储将结束零利率，美元将进入升息周期
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve would give the clearest signal
next week that its easy money stance is ending if, as some expect, it drops
its two-year long pledge to keep interest rates close to zero for a "
considerable time".
The Fed, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, f... 阅读全帖 |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 49 Hey Paul, here's what you're looking for:
1) Debauch the currency with Keynesian Policies
2) Destroy People's Propensity to save, and mock the Concept of Delayed
Gratification
3) Heavily Tax Productive Citizens
4) Subsidize Lazy, Shiftless Citizens
5) Destroy the Culture though Mass Illegal Immigration
6) Prosecute Average Citizens for Minor Crimes
7) Allow Wealthy, Well-Connected Theives to Escape Punishment
Any Questions?... |
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d**z
发帖数: 3577 | 50 我早说了，后清国欺内媚外，举世皆知。
洋人鄙视，但不说而已，反正对洋人有利。
并且早已变成世界各国和各民族的共识。
现在剑桥大学还有研究成果，并且有论文。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-show-unethical-leaning-
其实已经很客气了，没直说举国愚蠢犯贱。
阿Q后清还爱演戏装阔，其实早已是徒然。
后清是最欺内，媚外犯贱，反理性的国家。
世界各国是欺外媚内，后清国则是欺内媚外。
AMERICANS SHOW "UNETHICAL" LEANING WHEN SEALING DEALS WITH CHINA
Americans are more likely to use unethical tactics in business negotiations
with Chinese than with other Americans, while Chinese are more likely to be
unethical when dealing with their fellow countrymen, accordi... 阅读全帖 |
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