p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 1 发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: 善意提醒一下：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Feb 14 21:30:55 2012, 美东)
现在，就看明天下午2点了。
///
发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: 善意提醒一下：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Feb 11 12:33:57 2012, 美东)
看了一下，我们这里很多人看熊。但是，市场可能还很牛。如果秋月在的话，他一定会
提醒大家。希望他早日回来。
我上周也做空 RIMM 和 LCC，不过我昨天关了RIMM的空仓。由于他不在，我就胡说一下
：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
---- Barron's Cover：Enter the Bull ----
Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2012 Enter the Bull
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ART... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 2 看了一下，我们这里很多人看熊。但是，市场可能还很牛。如果秋月在的话，他一定会
提醒大家。希望他早日回来。
我上周也做空 RIMM 和 LCC，不过我昨天关了RIMM的空仓。由于他不在，我就胡说一下
：Barron在看牛，最好不要太看熊。
---- Barron's Cover：Enter the Bull ----
Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2012 Enter the Bull
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Even by conservative measures, the Dow Jones Industrials could top 15,000 in
two years. Dow 17,000 is a 50-50 bet.
Article Comments (18)
Email Print Reprints smaller Larger
Based on cyclical patterns of market history, the odds are bette... 阅读全帖 |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 3 Map of the world, colour-coded by Ease of Doing Business Index rank.
Dark green is first quartile,
light green is second quartile,
the third colour is third quartile,
red is fourth quartile.
Based on World Bank EDBI ranking data at [1]. Edited with Inkscape. Not
valid SVG, because I suck at Inkscape, however it is 3 years more recent
than the previous image used in the relevant article. |
|
S******y
发帖数: 1123 | 4 > library(gtools)
> x <- rnorm(1000)
> quartiles <- quantcut( x )
> table(quartiles)
quartiles
[-3.41,-0.704] (-0.704,0.0272] (0.0272,0.732] (0.732,2.94]
250 250 250 250 |
|
s*****s
发帖数: 59 | 5 祁斌：未来十年中国经济的转型与突破
2012年11月14日 15:21 新浪财经 微博 评论(239人参与)
编者按：此文根据作者2012年3月在北京大学光华管理学院的一次讲座及其他讲座
整理而成，收录于近期将要出版的《未来十年——中国经济的转型与突破》一书。
祁斌
首先感谢北京大学光华管理学院与我们中国证监会研究中心共同组织了今年的“资
本市场实务系列讲座”，并将讲座向其他院校开放，也非常感谢这么多同学和老师来参
加今天晚上的讲座。我今天想探讨的话题是，未来大致10年左右的时间内，中国经济怎
样实现转型和突破，以及在这样一个宏观背景下，中国资本市场的改革与发展。首先，
是一个引言。
“美国人应该真正害怕中国什么”
2011年9月27日，美国《华盛顿邮报》发表了一篇文章，它有一个非常吸引眼球的
标题：《美国人应该真正害怕中国什么》。文章配了一张照片，是一个在天安门广场的
中国人，戴着一付京剧脸谱，藏在一面巨大的五星红旗后面。这篇文章的标题和配图的
隐喻是，已经成为全球第二大经济体的中国，仍然在轰轰隆隆地前行，隐隐不安的美国
社会想知道，中国经济的推动力是什么？中国经济有什么秘密武器？... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******6
发帖数: 234 | 6 fHere are some references about the relation between milk comsumption and
prostate cancer.
1. World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research. Food,
Nutrition, and the Prevention of Cancer: A Global Perspective. American
Institute for Cancer Research, Washington, D.C., 1997, p. 311.
2. Chan JM, Stampfer MJ, Giovannucci EL. What causes prostate cancer? A
brief summary of the epidemiology. Sem Canc Biol. 1998a;8:263-73.
3. Howell MA. Factor analysis of international cancer mortal... 阅读全帖 |
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m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 7 The thing is the it's not a graph for any stock. I just make it with the
following R code,
require(TTR)
ret<-cumsum(rnorm(252,sd=0.036))
ret2<-exp(ret)
p<-50*ret2
ma20<-SMA(p,20)
ema20<-emaTA(p,20)
ema50<-emaTA(p,50)
plot(p, type="l")
lines(ema20, type="l",col='green')
lines(ema50, type="l",col='red')
and I used lognormal distribution for the returns, textbook assumptions
for
a big group of models.
skeptic(as exists everywhere), yes, I borrowed this idea from ET. Please
don
't rush to criticize,... 阅读全帖 |
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f***n
发帖数: 1 | 8 I have received an Intent to Deny on EB1B petition without an RFE. The
intent to deny clearly states that I meet three of six criteria
1) Scholarly articles, 2) Peer-review and 3) Scholarly contributions.
The Intent to Deny (IOD) then continues to say that taken together the
evidence does not show sustained international acclaim. It specifically
points to low citation count. It also states that the peer-review track
record is not significant and wants it to be equivalent to an Editor-in-
Chief o... 阅读全帖 |
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F*********u
发帖数: 12190 | 9 box plot上面5个值分别是max, 3rd quartile, median, first quartile和min
中间的横线是median |
|
b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 10 Researchers there retrospectively studied the old vets (average age 65) to
correlate HDL levels with the incidence of hospitalization for ischemic
heart disease including heart attack. All of the 6,357 subjects had an
enviable LDL level below 60 mg/dl.
Those patients in the lowest HDL quartile with HDL levels of 28 or below had
a 1-year incidence of ischemic heart related troubles of 8.5% compared with
those in the top HDL quartile whose HDL levels were 64 or above.
。。。哪里的理论？
没有明确的证据 |
|
H**r
发帖数: 10015 | 11 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/b1579981.html
The key findings relating to intergenerational mobility include the
following:
Children from low-income families have only a 1 percent chance of reaching
the top 5 percent of the income distribution, versus children of the rich
who have about a 22 percent chance.
Children born to the middle quintile of parental family income ($42,000 to $
54,300) had about the same chance of ending up in a lower quintile than
their parents (39.5 percen... 阅读全帖 |
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A****t
发帖数: 141 | 12 再说一点我的看法(不一定对)，一般情况下，比较几种方法会涉及到model,
computational algorithm,test statistic.....，因为这些都有可能影响到power,
type I error rate. 如果你只用t test（而不是自己提出来的新的test statistic）
，发现两组有显著差异，那可以说明被分组以后的两组数据有差异。但你不是在比较你
的两种分组方法吗？举个很极端的例子，产生一组随机数据，然后随机平分成两组，如
果sample size比较大的话，一般test不会有显著差异，但是如果把数据rank一下，top
quartile作为一组，bottom quartile为另一组,再做t test就很可能得到很小的p
value,而且随便一组数据都能得到显著差异。你的第二种方法给出更小的p value，但
是这样做是否合理，差异是不是真的有那么显著？
variance） |
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t*****a
发帖数: 459 | 13 要么你们都估计一个lower quartile 和 upper quartile吧， 按PhD + 4年工作经验算
。 |
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t*****a
发帖数: 459 | 14 要么你们都估计一个lower quartile 和 upper quartile吧， 按PhD + 4年工作经验算
。 |
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L*********d
发帖数: 7037 | 15 调查对象是先富，能不trust吗？
http://www.scribd.com/doc/47516013/About-the-2011-Edelman-Trust
About the Edelman Trust Barometer
The 2011 Edelman Trust Barometer is the firm’s 11th annual trust and
credibility survey. The survey wasproduced by research firm StrategyOne and
consisted of 30-minute telephone interviews conductedfrom October 11–
November 28, 2010, with the exception of France and Germany, fielded January
3-13,2011. The 2011 Edelman Trust Barometer survey sampled 5,075 informed
publics in two age... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 16 除了特定的几个CITIES以为，美国华人付清自己的房子也很容易啊。在美国好区，
first quartile的房子差不多是华人的标准了。 |
|
w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 17 华人平均情况是在某些地方花大钱，在其它地方死省。
房子，考虑大小、学区等等，大体上会买价格在 first quartile 的，相对于自己的收
入就高了。只好在其它地方省。
孩子教育没法省，因为必须都做到。
汽油、医疗保险这些也没法省。
只好在吃、穿上省，车子不要高档的，省税、维护。修理+割草+刷篱笆都自己干。 |
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b****i
发帖数: 11 | 18 U.S. News & World Report
© Copyright 2004 U.S. News & World Report. All rights reserved.
Monday, April 12, 2004
Vol. 136, No. 12
Other schools to consider
The next two quartiles of schools are listed in two groups, the Third Tier
and
Fourth Tier. Law schools within each of these tiers should be considered
broadly similar in quality and therefore are listed alphabetically. To be
listed, a law school must be accredited and fully approved by the American
Bar
Association and must draw mo |
|
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 20 While I am largely on the actively managed side except maybe US large cap
stock funds, one should understand in order to outperform market, the
portfolio need to be quite different than the market. In fact, significant
amount (>50%) of outperforming funds (which is minority BTW) over the past
10 years spend significant amount of time (3 yrs) in the bottom quartile. In
other words, they are not easy to hold. |
|
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 22 A Third-Quarter Mutual Fund Scorecard
By Christine Benz | 09-30-15 | 06:00 AM | Email Article
After remarkably smooth sailing for six-plus years, many investors had been
bracing themselves for volatility. They got it in the third quarter of 2015,
when a broad swath of investment types--especially stocks--took a tumble.
Worries over global growth, especially in emerging markets, was the key
catalyst for the sell-off. Although stocks had started to look shaky earlier
in the quarter, the Federal Re... 阅读全帖 |
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l****6
发帖数: 220 | 23 哪个高用哪个，只要说清楚就可以了。这是我当时自己列的list(我的140已经批了）。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
Please Note: Quartile in Category was calculated by 5-Year Impact factor
from ISI Web of Science; or SJR indicator from SCImago Journal & Country
Rank http://www.scimagojr.com/; Rank was calculated by EigenfactorTM Score from from ISI Web of Knowledge or SJR indicator in the category; Chinese Journals were calculated based on the A Guide To The Core Journal of China (page 324-328);
Publications Journals Year Q |
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a****d
发帖数: 624 | 24 继续考古，读了2个PL, 带图表的那种PL, 第一项authorship里，作者给了个表格，列
出所发文章的IF, 和 Ranking. footnote里我看到这么说的：
The 5-year IF and the ranking of each journal are based on 2009 Thomson
Scientific Impact Factor (IF). The top percentage is based on the quartiles
of 5-year IF for all the 7374 journals calculated by statistic software SAS
(Exhibit XXX) .
我有哪个JCR2010.的 IF 的 excel file, 但是不会算，不知道有没有高手，愿意帮忙算一下？ |
|
a****d
发帖数: 624 | 25 继续考古，读了2个PL, 带图表的那种PL, 第一项authorship里，作者给了个表格，列
出所发文章的IF, 和 Ranking. footnote里我看到这么说的：
The 5-year IF and the ranking of each journal are based on 2009 Thomson
Scientific Impact Factor (IF). The top percentage is based on the quartiles
of 5-year IF for all the 7374 journals calculated by statistic software SAS
(Exhibit XXX) .
我有哪个JCR2010.的 IF 的 excel file, 但是不会算，不知道有没有高手，愿意帮忙算一下？ |
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w*******d
发帖数: 396 | 26 可以列出在同类杂志的排名阿。你这个杂志在ＪＣＲ的排名不错阿。
Category Name Total Journals
in Category Journal Rank
in Category Quartile
in Category
INSTRUMENTS & INSTRUMENTATION 57 6 Q1
NANOSCIENCE & NANOTECHNOLOGY 73 30 Q2
PHYSICS, FLUIDS & PLASMAS 31 6 Q1 |
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o********a
发帖数: 30 | 27 大家好 最近在DIY 140 有些技术细节咨询一下各位
（1）准备用Google scholar的数据，给出论文发表和总引用list，但是我有一些中文
文章，同时也有中文引用，这样的话，直接打印网页就不合适了吧？是否需要拷贝下来
自己翻译？
（2）在强调发表期刊和引用我的期刊的影响力的时候，Google scholar就无能为力了
吧？那么用web of science，比如Journal of citation reports中，查到一个期刊的
话，点到一个Category中 （例如Chemistry，Multidisciplinary），应该用哪个表示
其引用排名？Cited Category 还是 Citing Category？
用Citing Category的话，我查到Journal of the American Chemical Society的rank
是#1， Angewandte Chemie-International Edition 是#2，而Chemical
Communications是#3，如果我在这三个期刊上都有论文发表，实际上从Journal of
... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******m
发帖数: 1893 | 28 City mulls changes to exam school admission rules
By James Vaznis GLOBE STAFF JULY 02, 2016
Boston school officials are exploring the potentially dicey question of
whether to change the admission requirements for the city’s three exam
schools in an effort to boost enrollment of black and Latino students.
An advisory committee formed to look at the admissions could usher in the
biggest changes to the entry requirements since a federal court ruling
prompted the school system to stop using race as... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********i
发帖数: 916 | 29 话说我这个礼拜一知道这个礼拜五要考试
数学 IT和统计 我就知道我要崩溃了
我活了二十来年 学过最高深的数学就是大一的微积分 学过最高深的电脑就是计算机二级
这些学过的还基本都忘干净了
我以蜗牛的速度搞定了数学部分
剩下的统计和IT 我连人家给我的大纲还有生词不认识呢
干脆不知到要怎么学
谁来救救我 明天上午就考了
请各位大牛千万不吝赐教！
统计大纲
Interpreting Pie Charts and Bar Charts
Graphical Representations
Histograms-Understanding Shape, Center, Spread, Outliers
Stemplots
Measures of Center: mean, median and mode
Measures of Dispersion: range, inter-quartile range, standard deviation
The Standard Deviation Rule for Normal Data
Probability
IT 大纲 Excel 2007
Form |
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b*********n
发帖数: 2975 | 30 FT
is it called IT and statistics?
话说我这个礼拜一知道这个礼拜五要考试
数学 IT和统计 我就知道我要崩溃了
我活了二十来年 学过最高深的数学就是大一的微积分 学过最高深的电脑就是计算机二级
这些学过的还基本都忘干净了
我以蜗牛的速度搞定了数学部分
剩下的统计和IT 我连人家给我的大纲还有生词不认识呢
干脆不知到要怎么学
谁来救救我 明天上午就考了
请各位大牛千万不吝赐教！
统计大纲
Interpreting Pie Charts and Bar Charts
Graphical Representations
Histograms-Understanding Shape, Center, Spread, Outliers
Stemplots
Measures of Center: mean, median and mode
Measures of Dispersion: range, inter-quartile range, standard deviation
The Standard Deviation Rule for Normal Da |
|
|
w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 32
我是说“大公司会正规些”不会那么做。50%（和现在的30%）都不是“少些”，差不多
是跳过了一般大公司的2个quartile了。
没有说小公司。有极其个别的小公司做的事情我知道，利用有点人为了保身份残酷剥削
的有。
这个标题是讲大公司。 |
|
y****t
发帖数: 9189 | 33 分布情况怎样？中位数多少？几个quartile分别是多少？标准差是多少？众数大约为多
少？ |
|
发帖数: 1 | 34 我同意这些都是参考条件。老马比他身体条件强，我不仅不否认，我也认同。但是我相
信你也要认同的是，梅西脚下强于老马，所以在我看来他们是各有千秋。连续过人，梅
西过的不够多吗？
球场表现这么比如何：
老马贝利梅西，不论国家队俱乐部，只要是顶级联赛杯赛，各挑30场他们有统治级表现
的比赛出来，你觉得梅西比那两位会差吗？从巅峰到平均，标准差，quartile随便。 |
|
p*****m
发帖数: 7030 | 35 如果你说单个个体不说明问题，fine,那至少给出个mean/sem or median/quartile来代表
整体吧？我不知道你说的“整个群体”的水平是啥意思，是你脑子里的一个无法言传的
perception? |
|
a***y
发帖数: 19743 | 36 但是JMP作图只能选加上SEM的error bar
说明用SEM做error bar是比SD正确的。
但是如果你做一个表格，需要标示样本的variation，就是要标mean +/- SD。或者mean
[25-75% quartile].
sample
it
more |
|
g*********3
发帖数: 65 | 37 Category Name Total Journals
in Category Journal Rank
in Category Quartile
in Category
MATHEMATICS 279 140 Q3
IF =0.584 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 2022 | 38 there are two ways that can give you some ideas about the distribution, but
don't know how to quantify it.
record the position of each "1" point, then rescale the position number to 1
-100.
1. Compare the rescaled values with the quartiles.
2. run the rescaled values against a beta distribution with A=1 and B=1 (
therefore a uniform distribution). You can get a very nice graph in sas.
|
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G*******s
发帖数: 10605 | 39 用proc univariate里面输出的percentile值来做bin，我们大多时候都分成4组(
quartiles)做分析，稍微变化下就能分N组 |
|
h******n
发帖数: 190 | 40 Okay, I think the question is about how do you treat a continues variable in
your model ?
First of all, you need plot to see the distribution of this variable, and
another plot to see its relationship with outcome - with this plot, you may
want to try use logit(Y) as Y-axis in addition to a binary Y.
Then, based on your plots, you may decide the way you want to use it - you
can use it as lienar, as with this way, it might be better to be
centered, or be devided by a unit such as 10 or 100 or 100... 阅读全帖 |
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A*********u
发帖数: 8976 | 41 用SAS
proc lifetest缺省计算 25% 50% %75
如果想要知道 33% 和 66% 的 point estimate 以及 95% CI
有什么option吗
还是不得不手算？
多谢多谢 |
|
|
xi
发帖数: 1678 | 43 INTERVALS=
specifies interval endpoints for life-table estimates
is this one? |
|
g**u
发帖数: 205 | 44 不是已经有survival proportion了吗？看看就知道了吧？ |
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A*********u
发帖数: 8976 | 45 嗯，后来就是这么估算的。
多谢楼上几位！
不是已经有survival proportion了吗？看看就知道了吧？ |
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i***m
发帖数: 148 | 46 感觉50%和75%的少了点，俩quartile之间差20-30k比较合理。
现在这个的话分布也太窄了
另外感觉bonus偏低啊
to |
|
i***m
发帖数: 148 | 47 感觉50%和75%的少了点，俩quartile之间差20-30k比较合理。
现在这个的话分布也太窄了
另外感觉bonus偏低啊
to |
|
x***r
发帖数: 1523 | 48 你这个average怎么定义的？ 3+ out of 4 那可是top quartile?
average应该是2。5吧 |
|
