d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 1 最近几天看到很多地方提到一个概念，
flatten the curve，
就是说把发病曲线扁平化，
峰值位置后移，避免医疗资源崩溃。
比如这样的：
这里量化讨论一下这个策略在我帝的可行性
暂时用最简单的SIR模型
SIR就是susceptible, infected, recoverd
系统如下：
参数：
人口3.27亿，
德国说可能感染70%，
我帝少算点假设30%最终感染好了，
其他人假设像老中一样关禁闭一个月不出门
初始感染人数：
保守一点，
假设现在我帝一万实际感染
beta可以从病例翻倍时间算，
Lancet说：COVID-19 had a doubling time in China of about 4–5 days in the
early phases
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/
fulltext
我帝现在病例基本三天翻倍，但这应该是检测的问题
这里用5天倍增时间来算
gamma可以从治疗需要的时间算，
The time from symptom... 阅读全帖 |
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C****t
发帖数: 3813 | 2 I just recoverd today. Back to normal mood to bash little red hats. |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 3 Seems like GOLD has recoverd its strength from selloff? |
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s**********n
发帖数: 2601 | 4 looks like high speed game ya~~
a little bit scare of it~~~
你伤应该还没好吧? not fully recoverd~~555555555 |
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m*********3
发帖数: 337 | 5 打算labor day去玩2-3天。
is it safe now? |
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y***i
发帖数: 148 | 6 Totally 不敢说，很难定义
Safe 应该没问题 |
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w********t
发帖数: 18315 | 9 俺觉得kartrina前后没太大变化吧？马路破，应该也不是kartrina后才破的，比如有名
的振动式I-10，有钱修的早修好了，没钱修的，kartrina前也漂亮不到哪里去，嘿嘿 |
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h****8
发帖数: 599 | 10 Well,it depends on how many sets you train each muscle group and your
training frequency. if I plan to do 4 exercises, 12 sets in total,for only
chest, I cannot picture myself train to failure for every set.
However if I only plan to do 1 set for each exercises, I probably can.
Also, if I decide to train whole body in each session 3 times a week,I
probably won't train to failure at all.
Another thing is, how do u define fully recovered? No explicit soreness? I
think fully recoverd means you are |
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t********k
发帖数: 808 | 11 it is done
i can connect to internet after i have recoverd 2000 using 2000 disk
so i can go to www.j3j4.com to recover my register online
thanks,anyway |
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d**n
发帖数: 198 | 12 open word, it might be automatically recoverd.
I take no responsibity for what I said. |
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a****d
发帖数: 607 | 13 not true after 2008. some firms started picking up this year, but most not
fully recoverd yet. |
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a****d
发帖数: 607 | 14 not true after 2008. some firms started picking up this year, but most not
fully recoverd yet. |
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