C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 1
countless resistance ahead. 现在这个价位就比较重要,50% retracement from
previous high 46.5. I don't know
how high it will go. Just let it run with a tight stop may be a good
strategy. |
|
C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 2
Stopped by 50% retracement. |
|
j******e
发帖数: 158 | 3 http://dragonflycap.com/2011/06/10/catching-the-chinese-cleaver
不会发图，大家看链接吧
Catching the Chinese Cleaver
Posted by Greg Harmon
on June 10th, 2011
Like the US Economy, Sina.com (ticker: $SINA) has hit its own little ‘rough
patch’ lately. It has fallen so far so quickly that traders are now
looking for a bottom or at least a tradeable bounce. But the story behind
this stock in the charts only looks worse the farther you step back in
timeframe. This makes it more like catching a falling Cle... 阅读全帖 |
|
B********0
发帖数: 472 | 4 终于有人看出了一些门道，lol。
这是我当时给wavelets指出的三点疑惑之一，一个是不同expiration contract CL差价，第二
就是July contract的expiration date是下周二，而他定的赌注结束时间是下周三收盘（少了
一天周三对我是好事，每周三10：30AM油会有些波动），第三就是大多broker对soon-to-
expire（a week) contracts交易有限制，做油的一班在这个时候避免最近期contract。我要
他贴交易单有我的考虑。看起来我的怀疑是对的，如果他真做油了，做的也应该不是future，而是
UCO之类的东西。至于他在2：03PM给别人贴的那个UCO交易（time stamp 1：08），我还没查过
具体的tape，I will do it today。
其实就是那八月的CL contract跟7月contract五毛的差价，暂时救了我一马，目前在八月
contract 100跌回来，刚好7月contract 没到100 （99.6）. 也没过50% retracement。
猫有九条命，就看能不能活下来。当然，现在... 阅读全帖 |
|
a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 5 你太抬举我了，我没看出任何东西，只是觉得这样的赌局缺乏娱乐意义和经济意义。
才做了多久的石油啊，搞得华山论剑一样。
期货在这里是小小众群体，没几个人care，更没几个人care这样的赌局。
靠预测做石油，不知道你们口袋够不够大。
价，第二
盘（少了
-to-
contract。我要
future，而是
我还没查过
八月
retracement。 |
|
p***e
发帖数: 3852 | 6 上个图，SP掉在fibonacci retracement线上 |
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 7 for me, and likely most ppl, trading is to make money. that's the first
target. (It might be a fun thing to burn capital if you have multi-million
to billion). So
What is more important than why, IMO.
you would often hear statement after some stock drops to a certain level and
then rebounce. TA ppl might claim like this
"reached a critical support level and failed to break it, and made a second
attempt(which is often called RETEST) and failed again, double failure is
often a strong reversal sign... 阅读全帖 |
|
p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 8 One of the reasons that I sold here is that 1825 is right at 61.８%
retracement. |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 9
如果明天回到１１8。２6 (retrace 61.8%)
我猜周五会很惨，MM要杀CALL了。 |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 10 这几天，右眼跳得厉害。。。
看了 David Rosenberg 的解说，豁然醒悟了。Live or Die, 9/22 (FOMC会后一天）是
关键。祈祷！
The consensus view that the Fed is going to stop at 'Operation Twist' may be
in for a surprise. It may end up doing much, much more. And this may be one
of the reasons why the stock market is starting to rally (a classic 50%+
retracement, which always occur after the first 20% down-leg in a cyclical
bear market would imply a test of 1,250 on the S&P 500 at the very least).
Hedge funds do not want to be short ahead of... 阅读全帖 |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 11 My observation is, from 1136 to 1217 not many bulls on board; and most
probably small bulls already cashed out. The primary goal of this ramp up
was to kill bears. For now, small bears are mostly slaughtered already.
Many are expecting a retrace of 38.2% to 1188 area. And this time it might
just occur. MM's need some small bulls on board, and squeeze bears at the
same time. And the target could be 50DMA (1220~1230ish), when month-end and
quarter-end window dressing takes place. If that's the cas... 阅读全帖 |
|
j******e
发帖数: 158 | 12 方法一：08年大跌，金价从1000跌倒700，跌幅30%。银子差不多快21跌到不到9，跌幅
近60%。
这样算来gld应该跌到130左右，slv应跌到20多一点，正好是08高点。
方法二：根据这08年两个底部和最近的gld和slv的高点，如果用fibonacci
retracement计算。gld 50%回退到126左右，38.2%则到140左右。在128和123有两个强
支撑。
slv依次方法，61.8%则到24左右。20块5那有强支撑，正好也是200日线。
总结一下，gld到130可建仓，123则可重仓。slv到24建仓，21可重仓。
刚才忘了一条，QE3一出，夹死他拜！ |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 13 US dollar shows spinning top with heavy volume; so it will retrace. |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 14
shake out more people; MM's feel very heavy.
also 50% retrace now. |
|
R******n
发帖数: 687 | 15 Just follow Fibonacci retracement lines. usually 61%, but could be as high
as 99% per EW theory. |
|
y**a
发帖数: 143 | 16 自己瞎算的。 50% Fibonaci retracement from 2010. |
|
f******d
发帖数: 6361 | 17 有图贤弟，你画图还挺认真的，均线，布林通道，macd，rsi，一个不漏，不过如果你
把stochastic，trend line，fibonacci retracement都加上去，凑齐7种武器，你的图
就更加壮观鸟。 |
|
l******n
发帖数: 521 | 18 关键是他能疯多久。
如果是良性上涨，总该retrace一下的。现在这个涨势看着心痒。 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 19
现在的市场暂时比较适合玩上下波动。
主要是因为墙街干涉，不让股票自由跌或起。
墙街为何如此？ 主要是使散户的计划落空。
例如，股票正常的短期高峰和谷底是Ｔ和Ｂ。
如果估计正确的散户很多，墙街必然捣蛋。
捣蛋的方法就是抢先在 Ｂ＋b 的价买进，
而反弹到 T-t 的价卖出，使散户失去机会。
所以散户必需根据观察，适当的调整波动宽度。
算出调整之前的理论波动宽度极限是有备无患。
无论如何现在分析一下 SPY 短期波动的极限。
参考不久前的最负值是 -4.1%。
参考不久前的最正值是 +6.0%。
昨晚最新结果如下：
SPY, 20111017, 120.0000, 0.2594, 0.2,
4.1 - 0.2 = 3.9%
120 X 0.039 = 4.68
6.0 - 0.2 = 5.8%
120 X 0.058 = 6.96
根据以上数据，短期墙街的挤空理论上限是
120 + 4..68 = 124.68
而短期墙街打压的理论下限是
120 - 6.96 = 113.04
如果取半数值，则分别为 2.34 和 3.48。
如此获得波动宽度在 122.34 和 1... 阅读全帖 |
|
l******n
发帖数: 521 | 20
我其实越来越不敢碰20以下的股票的。
没时间研究啊。
还是等大盘crash吧。
SQNM我也算了，盯着他，影响学业啊。不过觉得最近如果再retrace个10%，进点拿着应
该没事儿。
lastly，谢谢叔的pick哦。 |
|
t**u
发帖数: 1572 | 21 do you expect a large pull-back or small retracement after Nov.2? Thanks |
|
h*******u
发帖数: 37 | 22 Copper Traders See Rally Ending as China Use Slows: Commodities
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Copper traders and analysts are forecasting an end to
the biggest weekly rally since at least 1986 on concern demand will slow in
China while Europe’s lingering financial crisis limits growth.
Eleven of 23 people surveyed by Bloomberg say copper will drop next week,
eight predicted a gain, and four said prices will be little changed. The
last time respondents were mostly bearish, on Sept. 23, the metal slumped... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
p********n
发帖数: 2046 | 24 focking retraced back. why bother falling down then?
what do u think,danius? |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 25 Totally Agree!
30 to 50 points retrace on S&P500 index is a must before 1350.
GO BEARS! |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 26 Market Watch Title:
Best January in more than a decade for stocks
Feb could see some retracement, first target spx 1300. |
|
R******n
发帖数: 687 | 27 Raised my initial target to 9.5-10 range.
Volume is high, but still not as high as Dec 2010, when it stopped at 13
week EMA. This time it is above 13 wk EMA, so it might hit 34 week EMA at 9.
24 or downtrend line at 10 (above 50% retracement of the last drop).
Plan to sell some to cover my cost, and let the rest run. If we are lucky,
this might follow the path of Argentina banks after the debt crisis. |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 28 In case one is wondering what lit a fire under the EURUSD and the ES' ass in
the past 30 minutes, why it is the trusty old fall back - China. Because
just as the EURUSD was about to retrace the lows as the realization that the
EOD rumor was nothing but an infrared herring, something else had to step
in an continue to rumor-based levitation. Sure enough, that something was
the Chinese central bank.
CHINA PBOC'S ZHOU SAYS HE'S CONFIDENT EU WILL SOLVE CRISIS: MNI
CHINA PBOC'S ZHOU SAYS HE S... 阅读全帖 |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 29 SPX will hit 1370 first, then retrace to 1325.
After that, the run to 1400 shall begin.
Disclaimer:
I am anti-finger, so take your poison. |
|
i*u
发帖数: 299 | 30 Stock market continued to suffer from the Greece headline this past week, where the S&P500 fell for six straight days and posted its worst weekly return (-4.3%) since late November 2011. On the other hand, bonds market strengthened as the 10yr Treasury yield moved in coincident with weaker stocks performance, and the benchmark is currently trading at its lowest level ever in the history at 1.71 as of this Friday. Aside from the technical, Thursday's economic releases pointed to a longer slowdown... 阅读全帖 |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 31 61.8% fibonacci retracement |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 32 today SPX might reclaim 1310, which is 50% retracement line. |
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 34 SAND retraced after hitting another 52 weeks high
its new bought deal financing of $130 MM will allow it to milk
larger projects down the road
this is a stock you should own if you like gold |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 35 重新算了下，应该在1322附近。。。fibonacci 38.2% retracement from 1070 to
1475.
当然还是留点钱好，万一到了1280左右。。。 |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 36 Nov 15, 2012 8:23 AM
Even though our studies were telling us that the correlation between USDJPY
and U.S. stocks was finally shifting -- see Why the Yen Is The New Alpha
Market -- I'm still a bit surprised at how strong USDJPY has been the last
two sessions, particularly in the face of U.S. stock weakness. The impetus
for a strong USDJPY - weak Yen -- has been Liberal Democrat Party President
Abe's insistence that if elected he will urge the Bank of Japan to consider
unlimited printing of Yen to... 阅读全帖 |
|
b*********l
发帖数: 25 | 37 looking to retrace around 57-58 area. |
|
R****r
发帖数: 623 | 38 436正好是705的retracement分割点。开始有人骚动了。星期一准备出手。 |
|
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 40 大牛厉害！
4/15/2013是fib(61.8)retracement,成功反弹。昨天破位，今天继续。日线也破位
sma200以下。不妙。 |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 41 possibly it will retrace to 1580.
my guess SPX will oscillate between 1580 and 1620 for several weeks, until
all the leverage ETF holders get killed by decay. |
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 42 A good read here. the resistant is there. HPQ will retrace - ideally drop
below 21 so that that call i sold will expire, pocket 3%, and charge up with
force next week.
sell |
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 43 well, it had a technical break down of $25. a significant trendline break
down tells you the big trend is down, just like a break through on the way
up - tells you the big trend is up - a small rebound/retrace may happen,
which is a counter trend. so you shouldn't long the direction of counter
trend. rather you should long the direction of big trend - PUT FB to $22. |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 44 加仓SPY＠１６３。４２
Fibonacci Retracement is done |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 45 23.6% fibonacci retracement |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 46 When momentum is strong, fibonacci retracement of 23.6% is preferred than 38
.2%
Let's ALL IN 1632 |
|
h*****e
发帖数: 3624 | 47 fibonacci retracement is a shit compare to bigwet's butterfly |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 48 50% fibonacci retracement
ALL IN is recommended. |
|
r*********C
发帖数: 2019 | 49 目测。 成交密集区，５０ 日线， ０。５ retrace。 |
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 50 如果真的到了那里，先要过0.618 retrace, right?
thanks! |
|
