d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
Based on the latest VO information about EB1 as well as latest trackitt data
from Q1/Q2, this is the current status and predictions for EB2.
In summary we think that EB2IC will receive total 37K SOFAD of which ~31K
will go towards backlog reduction. This would mean a dates moving into Apr-
2007 for EB2IC. The best case scenario would be Aug 2007. Worst case would
be Sep 2006.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 3 据烙印论坛说，有人PD是09-11-2008的已经收到NVC的 Fee notice.
Reference: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page112
以下是烙印对一月份VB的分析，感觉比较合理：
Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other
news and information.
GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end
of FY 2012.
Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012
does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional int... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 4 EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
WELCOME TO Q'S IMMIGRATION BLOG
Based on the latest 2010 EB approval reports, this is the current status and
predictions for EB2.
THIS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO BEING PAINTED. SO DON'T KILL THE
MESSENGER. TRY AND UNDERSTAND THE RATIONALE BEHIND.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 5 Prediction / Calculation Using Trackitt Model
Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007 (20% Chance of 01-AUG-2007)
EB2 India Calculation Details
Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumulative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 6 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
Venni .. EB2IC dates will move together when SOFAD kicks in. To move dates
to Aug 2007 SOFAD needs to be 30-35K right? Do you think SOFAD will be that
high?
Originally Posted by veni001
Welcome!
That's not correct, EB3C got only 4,150 pending with PD before Aug 2007
compared to almost 11,000 EB2C for the same period. Unless there are more
PWMB and/or CP cases EB3C should clear until Aug 2007 by Sept 20112.
Originally Posted by leo0... 阅读全帖 |
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m**********u
发帖数: 197 | 7 A３ 联 NIU 刚刚的倒的时批数距都偷去了
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
Today 01:04 PM#4445
TeddyKoochu
GC-Pandit
Summary of MITTBS News on 19K
There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the
information has come out of a FOIA request.
ͬѧÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈ&
Igrave;²»×¡´òÁ˸öOµ&
Auml;µç»°¡£ - δÃû&
iques... 阅读全帖 |
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m**********u
发帖数: 197 | 8 A３ 联 NIU 刚刚的倒的时批数距都偷去了
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
Today 01:04 PM#4445
TeddyKoochu
GC-Pandit
Summary of MITTBS News on 19K
There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the
information has come out of a FOIA request.
ͬѧÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈ&
Igrave;²»×¡´òÁ˸öOµ&
Auml;µç»°¡£ - δÃû&
iques... 阅读全帖 |
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c****r
发帖数: 969 | 9 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
friskpipi (蹦蹦跳跳) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:16:45 2011, 美东) 提到:
给Openheim发信，问过了07大潮如何定排期，同时建议他短期内排期大步前进 to
build up inventory。 他说：
1. 一旦排期过了08/15/2007，需要将排期推进来允许交485.
2. 他会和USCIS一同协商。看有多少Pending EB2 I-140 和他认为FY-2012的可用名额
来决定排期前进多少。（看来全C是不可能的）。
还没有给他回信，大家提建议如何回信吧。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
friskpipi (蹦蹦跳跳) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:18:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
嗯？大家不感兴趣？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KRISWANG (KRIS) 于 (Fri Jul 15 11:19:41 2011, 美东... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 10 I copied from Q's forum. Credit to Spectator.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.
totally we need 25k visa numbers in order to reach 2008. Things don't look
too great. We will be lucky if we can reach 2008.01 in the FY 2012.
With the reform of EB5 and new EB2 category, things look very bad. This year
we got 28k SOFAD, I doubt we can get 20k SOFAD in the next FY.
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including... 阅读全帖 |
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e*2
发帖数: 56 | 11 I never tried to predict a VB but, as a freshman here, I did do some
homework to try to understand VB and its trend.
With that being said, the next VB is doomed meaningful, especially for those
PDs in the second half of 2008 (calendar year) and later, as this VB, after
6.5 months' leap forward, should give us some decision power to keep
looking forward or simply turn away from this website before coming back in
FY2013 (October 2012).
Those who previously predicted VB movements probably have to r... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 12 I copied from Q's forum. Credit to Spectator.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.
totally we need 25k visa numbers in order to reach 2008. Things don't look
too great. We will be lucky if we can reach 2008.01 in the FY 2012.
With the reform of EB5 and new EB2 category, things look very bad. This year
we got 28k SOFAD, I doubt we can get 20k SOFAD in the next FY.
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 13 同样的数据为什么会有如此大的反差？我们究竟该相信那一个。
From immigration voice
According to a report from AILA the SOFAD last year was 26.5K. With 26.5K we
would barely clear 2006. However here are some positives from this year.
1) EB2 ROW has lower backlog.
2) Perm process became really quick in 2010 and that year saw approvals for
2007, 2008 and 2009 folks. Now in 2011 we will have mostly 2010.
3) On that website the approval rates for both Eb1 and EB2 Row are down to
50% from 2010 its still early days though.
So these ... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 14 By TeddyKoochu
EB2 India Predictions for Q4 2011 and 2012
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current.
For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K
visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K
consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which
includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is le... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 15 The Nov. VB will bring the total demand from about 10k to about 17k.
The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.
The data below is copied from Q's forum. Credit to Spectator.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
S... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 16 I got the data from Q's forum for you. Credit to S.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillove
SOFAD 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466----around 30000
The lowest SOFAD is in 2009 and usually it's between 20k-30k.
I think CO will very likely to move the PD to get 30k at least. But nobody
knows what he will do. He is unpredictable! |
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 18 B2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
These are predictions for EB2.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat!)
Summary of EB2 Situation in 2010 USCIS Fiscal:
By end of Sep 2010, EB2 backlog will be cleared through PD Sep 06 by Sep
2010. The range of SOFAD should be between 40-50K whi |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 19 Originally Posted by belmontboy
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN
2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?
Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5
K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I
will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data . |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 20 在黑暗的时候，有时候学学老印的傻乐观也好。生活总的继续，心存一丝希望，总比一
点希望没有要好。即使到时候，远远没有到达预测日期，大家尽可一笑了之。没有什么
大不了，大部分人也不是靠VB安排我们的工作生活。
From IV Teddykoochu
Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.
Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009
This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself
is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very
light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario
for your case 2013 is both the conser... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 21 I want to share some information from Indians.
Mr.Q is a very informative Indian guy. His information has been very
accurate in the past several months. He is super knowledgable about EB2-3.
He is also very good at data analysis. His latest comment regarding the
coming two VBs. He predicts that VB can reach the Q2/Q3 of 2008.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
The key messages are:
Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW
both are ver... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 22 I copied from Q's forum. Credit to Spectator.
It looks like we need less than 10k to clear all cases before 8/1/2007.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.
totally we need 25k visa numbers in order to reach 2008. Things don't look
too great. We will be lucky if we can reach 2008.01 in the FY 2012.
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting
April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
Jun... 阅读全帖 |
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d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 23 SOFAD is the total used by EB2 of china and india?
if that is the case, he may use 2008 SOFAD of 21000. |
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m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 24 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stirfry (目标一〇〇〇〇〇〇刀) 于 (Thu Oct 20 20:07:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
一直憋着，有些计划也不敢实施。
请高手给估计个日期，这样俺也可以提前展望规划一下。
谢谢！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Helsinki (跑步然后桑拿) 于 (Thu Oct 20 20:29:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
before December 2012.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stirfry (目标一〇〇〇〇〇〇刀) 于 (Thu Oct 20 22:44:48 2011, 美东) 提到:
真的吗？希望真的能如此。到时候一定把自己几件马甲里的伪币统统掏出来散之。呵呵。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
eb2 (就淡定它一年半载的吧) 于 (Thu Oct 20 23:01:11 2... 阅读全帖 |
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 25 EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
These are predictions for EB2.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat!)
Summary of EB2 Situation in 2010 USCIS Fiscal:
By end of Sep 2010, EB2 backlog will be cleared through PD Sep 06 by Sep
2010. There is some possibility of it clearing all t |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 27 05/13/2011: State Department Employment-Based Visa Demand Statistics Used to
Determine June 2011 Visa Bulletin for EB Categories
Readers must have noticed that we highlighted in the yesterday's reporting
of the State Department predictions for the coming months. As noted in the
prediction, the EB-2 visa cut-off date for India will depend on the volume
of EB-2 visa numbers by Chinese and Indians, mostly Indians, between January
and March or later statistics of USCIS in its EB-485 inventory for EB... 阅读全帖 |
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d******e
发帖数: 351 | 28 "about 1 -1.5k which is a very small number compared to all SOFAD they want
to utilize in the final quarter. "
如果 1.5K 都是VERY SMALL NUMBER，那这个数至少得上万了。 |
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T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 29
TeddyKoochu from immigrationvoice.org
Total SOFAD left is ~ 8K. If entire 8K is allocated in Aug then the dates
will move to 01-JUL-2007, if ~6K is applied the dates will move to 01-JUN-
2007. My prediction is 01-JUN-2007 for Aug Bulletin. I belive the new intake
which is completely in the hypothetical domain but has to happen will
happen in the Sep bulletin or latest by Q2 2012. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 30 maybe not
total demand before 2008.01 is around 30k including porting number
if SOFAD next year is bigger than 30k, we can advance into 2008.01. |
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b*********n
发帖数: 35 | 31 from a3's blog
I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.
------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD
Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000
January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 32 Only a certian percentage of 485 can be approved in 12 months. Some of them
can be audited, REFed, delayed and denied. Also some people have left this
country.
If SOFAD is 30k, he needs 40k to be on the safe side! |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 33 I think it does...otherwise this estimate cannot be weighed against SOFAD.It
would be meaningless.
submitted |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 34 yes, SOFAD is the actual total approvals!
Not all the new cases can be approved in the summer of 2012, so he has to
use a safty factor. I think his target is between 25k-40k, most probably is
35k-40k. Just my personal opinion. |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 35 O傻肯放出3万人
追平去年的SOFAD就不错啦
这B什么操行 你我又不是不知道
要是到了夏天被他搞到DEMAND枯竭 无人可批
老子就去NIU挑头搞CAMPAIGN要他放C
叫他咎由自取 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 36 我是比较谨慎的乐观
下个月排期还要前进，但是能否进入2008年还不确定，因为12月假期比较多，移民局有
可能让奥啥只前进2个月，为什么排期到现在才跨越，我觉得奥傻和移民局协商的结果
。本来暑假就该前进到2008年，但是这些逼不想太累。
Q2能否前进不好说，但是我感觉这个财政年度排期应该在2008年4月-9月之间。就是说
奥傻应该控制demand在3-4万之间。
明年暑假9月或12月估计会进入2009年。
基本每年SOFAD在2-3万左右，老中烙印demand其实也再3万左右，烙印每月1500-2千，
老中500-1000. 2008年以后老中需求低于500每月。烙印基本不变。 |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 37 大家都是至少MASTER以上学历的
这点判断力总该有吧？
没有3012
EB2/3C新PD还是得跟EB2/3I捆绑
争夺每年ROW EB2剩下的名额
这得取决于人ROW需要多少
我们只能拿人家不需要的富余部分
这两年经济不好
ROW也没什么人 所以中印一块儿连续两年有2-3万SO
有了3012
就没什么C,I,ROW的区别了
大家看排队顺序吃名额
EB2C不必看ROW吃多少了
不管经济形势怎么样 ROW要吃多少了
数量众多的EB2/3I是业已存在的
什么法案都无法改变
我们要么选择和他们争一个小馅饼
要么选择联合他们一起去争一个大的多的馅饼
2009年底开始经济回暖
ROW人数又增多
今后ROW只会越来越多
2009年那么少的PERM数量不会再重现了
不可能指望每年都有3万SOFAD给中印了
还不如一起去抢每年4万的大馅饼 |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 38 关于楼主的问题，最重要的两个变量是：
1.在09年7月之前有多少EB2C/I？
2.FY2012甚至13有多少SO？
第一个数字有好几个估计
比较保守谨慎的估计是拖家带口+NIW的EB2/I截至到08年12月底有4万人
比较乐观的估计则有3万人
09年的估计我还没有看到过
但是基于劳工部批PERM的数据来看
09年是EB2C/I的PERM小小年
所以一旦08年清空 09年的处理就很快了
第二个数字则要看现在和未来几个月的就业市场了
即EB2ROW能吃掉多少名额
鉴于今年和去年的就业情况差不多--H1B使用情况差不多
所以一般的估计是FY2012也有3万左右SOFAD
综上所述，满足08年12月之前的EB2C/I的名额大概需要FY2012全年的名额
甚至要外加FY2013的一部分名额
而09年的需求是很小的
所以2012年12月左右可以交485是比较中性的估计
不可谓乐观 也不可谓悲观 |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 39 Yes, exactly the same as I'm managing my expectations. Thank you.
关于楼主的问题，最重要的两个变量是：
1.在09年7月之前有多少EB2C/I？
2.FY2012甚至13有多少SO？
第一个数字有好几个估计
比较保守谨慎的估计是拖家带口+NIW的EB2/I截至到08年12月底有4万人
比较乐观的估计则有3万人
09年的估计我还没有看到过
但是基于劳工部批PERM的数据来看
09年是EB2C/I的PERM小小年
所以一旦08年清空 09年的处理就很快了
第二个数字则要看现在和未来几个月的就业市场了
即EB2ROW能吃掉多少名额
鉴于今年和去年的就业情况差不多--H1B使用情况差不多
所以一般的估计是FY2012也有3万左右SOFAD
综上所述，满足08年12月之前的EB2C/I的名额大概需要FY2012全年的名额
甚至要外加FY2013的一部分名额
而09年的需求是很小的
所以2012年12月左右可以交485是比较中性的估计
不可谓乐观 也不可谓悲观 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 40 before Nov. applicants, there were 8k old cases, so totally if the SOFAD is
more than 28k, Mr.CO needs to move PD even further.
To be safe, he needs to move PD to 2009! I think everybody before 2009.12
deserve an EAD/AP! |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 41 This is indeed optimistic for a Sep-09 PD to become current within next 2
yrs.
It assumes 30K+ SOFAD every year for next two. Isn't it optimistic? |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 42 I think once 3012 becomes law there will be even more EB1 spillovers. From
time to time we see ppl asking here how long EB2C wait will be to decide if
they should go for EB1. If the backlog of EB2C is alleviated thanks to 3012,
those ppl won't have any incentive to spend a lot of time preparing for EB1
and hence reduce the usage of EB1 visas.
Last year EB2C/I got almost 35K SOFAD, at least 10K is from EB1 spillover.
Think about that. |
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l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 43 咱们先不考虑HR3012吧，那还需要参议院投票通过。假设没有HR3012的情况下，Feb.和
Mar.的VB很有可能会后退。但这也取决于CO想建立多少inventory。按SOFAD算，Jan.后
应该已经有足够的inventory了。 |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 44 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
keyw (baobao) 于 (Sat Nov 12 18:09:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
想看看体检能不能撑到那个时候，谢谢
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ACCM (hs) 于 (Sat Nov 12 19:27:38 2011, 美东) 提到:
危险，我08-8的还在犹豫是不是在年底把FSA里剩的钱用来体检，不过也说不定哪天抽
风全部current了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Sat Nov 12 19:29:25 2011, 美东) 提到:
medical exam can be done in 3 days.
no rush.
I think you will be current in 1.5-2 years.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
c... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 45 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Sep 22 13:35:04 2011, 美东) 提到:
From 2007 summer to this summer, I think more than 90k EB2 C&I have been
approved and 8k are pending.
Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
C Approved 8000 6,505 3,045 6,964 6,797
I Approved 18000 19,961 10,106 14,818 6,203
2011 data was estimated.
If they don't have a huge inventory, it will be difficult to control the
flow.
In 2007 they built this massive 98k inventory, this year they need to buil... 阅读全帖 |
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