f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 1 TheWashington PostPublishes the Worst Analysis Yet of Neil Gorsuch’
s Confirmation Fight
byEdward BlumApril 5, 2017 3:30 PM
The prize for the worst analysis to date about the confirmation of Judge
Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court should be awarded to Professor
Richard Hasen of the University of California–Irvine Law School. Professor
Hasen’s evolution from a serious legal scholar to a partisan mudslinger is
now sadly complete.
That is the only conclusion to be drawn from his April 2Washing... 阅读全帖 |
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j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 2 Pence plays Trump's loyal VP across Midwest, amid White House controversies
Vice President Pence kept a busy Saturday while President Trump was overseas
, espousing the president's leadership in a college commencement speech and
urging Americans to thank U.S. military personnel.
“If you see a member of the Armed Forces on Armed Forces Day … reach out
and say, 'Thank you for your service,' " Pence said at Wright Patterson Air
Force Base, in Ohio.
“I couldn’t be more proud to work for a president ... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 3 Roger Stone Alleges That He Knows Who Is Behind the White House Leaks
BY ADAM PRIBILA
Much speculation has been made regarding the role former Donald Trump
presidential campaign adviser Roger Stone played in the various hacking and
leaking scandals that plagued the 2016 election.
And now, Stone finds himself speculating on the recent leaks to come from
the Trump White House.
At an event at the Capitol Hill Club for Young Republicans, Stone was
questioned by a tracker from American Bridge, the De... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 4 下面这篇文章挺有意思的。床铺根本就没想要当总统。他只是想利用选举给自己增加知
名度。他竞选团队里头的人也没指望他当总统。结果他意外当选了，现在竞选团队里的
人反而麻烦了。另外床铺一开始组阁时候的混乱也说明他根本也没有预料或者期待当选。
Donald Trump Didn’t Want to Be President
On the afternoon of November 8, 2016, Kellyanne Conway settled into her
glass office at Trump Tower. Right up until the last weeks of the race, the
campaign headquarters had remained a listless place. All that seemed to
distinguish it from a corporate back office were a few posters with right-
wing slogans.
Conway, the campaign’s manager, ... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 5 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: WCNMLGB (CCC), 信区: Military
标 题: Opara Winfrey - 2020总统 - 你支持吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 8 16:27:31 2018, 美东)
Sources: Oprah Winfrey 'actively thinking' about running for
president
Updated 3:57 PM EST January 8, 2018New York
Oprah Winfrey is "actively thinking" about running for president,
two of her close friends told CNN Monday.
The two friends, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely, talked in
the wake of Winfrey's extraordinary speech at the G... 阅读全帖 |
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n******5
发帖数: 1990 | 6 操你妈的加拿大公工安全部长！
“too early to comment”， “inappropriate to speculate"
栽赃陷害华人的穆斯林小女孩说谎时，他们跳出来得多么快！
操你妈！操你妈！操你妈！操你妈！操你妈！操你妈！操你妈！
It’s too early to comment on the motives for the crash and it’s “
inappropriate” to speculate on whether it was related to terrorism, federal
Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale told reporters in Toronto |
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发帖数: 1 | 7 这是2017年的旧闻
By Dylan Matthews on September 12, 2017 5:00 pm
希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）在竞选回忆录《发生了什么》（What Happened）
中最令人震惊的一段话中，揭示了她与员工共同制定但从未实际发布的竞选建议：由碳
和金融交易税资助的美国人的普遍基本收入。
她在接受Vox的埃兹拉·克莱因（Ezra Klein）采访时说：“我非常想传达一个承诺，
试图找出增加收入的方法。” “阿拉斯加模型每年都会根据有关石油和天然气收入的
公式向每一个阿拉斯加人写一张支票，这对我来说真的很有趣。”
这是本书的相关段落，第239页：
在竞选总统之前，我读过一本书，作者是彼得·巴恩斯（Peter Barnes）着的《为所有
人带来自由和红利：如何在工作不足时挽救我们的中产阶级》一书，探讨了创建一个新
基金的想法，该基金将利用共享国家资源以向每个公民派发红利，就像阿拉斯加常设基
金每年如何分配该州的石油使用费一样。共享的国家资源包括从公共土地中提取的石油
和天然气以及广播公司和移动电话公司使用的公共无线电波，但这只能使您走得... 阅读全帖 |
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i****x
发帖数: 17565 | 8 其他品牌死没死人，死了多少，因为并没有机构来统计，或许根本没死人，所以根本没
调查
I'm fucking sick of your constant speculation out of thin air. all of you
arguments are made of "perhaps""who knows if" now in shutting up no point
waste my time with your speculation you can claim your victory now |
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U*******B
发帖数: 2547 | 9 Oppenheimer said a Columbus police accident investigation team pulled the
dash-camera video from the cruiser. He said the footage shows the cruiser
entering the intersection just as the light was turning from green to yellow.
The victims' car entered on a red light, Oppenheimer said, and then came to
a complete stop in the middle of the intersection before it was hit.
"One could speculate that he may have realized he ran the red light and was
going to back up," Oppenheimer said. "Or he saw the c... 阅读全帖 |
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M***O
发帖数: 3718 | 10 UAW blasts GM for possible China-to-U.S. export
Tension overGeneral Motors' decision to consider importing Chinese-made
Buicks to the U.S. are colliding with contract talks between the automaker
and theUnited Auto Workersabout a month before a deadline to reach a
new union deal.
The UAW on Tuesday blasted GM for weighing a plan to become the first
Detroit automaker to sell a China-made vehicle in the U.S. TheBuick Envision
, a compact crossover currently assembled at a plant southeast ofBeijing,... 阅读全帖 |
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n*******y
发帖数: 3337 | 11 "How much it would cost to make a 3G Nexus 7 with 32GB of storage?
The component experts at iSuppli have shown that the bill of materials for
the 8GB Nexus 7 is about $152 or about $160 with manufacturing cost included
. The 16GB model costs $167, with manufacturing included. So, in spite of
early speculation, Google does make money of the Nexus 7, even of the basic
model.
Adding 16GB of storage space shouldn’t cost too much. Assuming that Asus is
able to get storage for 70 cents per gigabyte (w... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******e
发帖数: 46 | 12 HBR 的问题是质量太不稳定。seminal的不少，但是垃圾也不少。别的不说，哈佛大多
数教授名下都有N多的HBR.很多是那种个把页的文章，没什么意思。他们近亲繁殖的太
厉害。一个教授有个4,5篇的MS可以算很强了。要是说HBR 可以顶MS，哈佛那些研究再
强，也不至于强出别人N多倍去。也许该说，HBR对非哈佛的很难发。Academy of
management executive 创刊的时候，就评价HBR是"educated speculation".他们好的
文章speculation中了，但是不中的只怕更多。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 13 好奇你以前proposal怎么写下来的？
他用的动词是hope， 不是expect
知道这两单词的区别吗？ hope包括了任何渺茫的生存机会都算hope，但expect是预计
或计划之内的。
任何美好的祝愿，大家都用I hope so. 但任何已成定论的未来事实，大家用I expect
. 任何带有随机性的个人猜测，大家用my speculation is.
也就是说，他给你的是实现程度最低的那种希望，连speculation都算不上，甚至连他
自己的points都没有任何透露。 不管别人啥态度，他首先要有个明确的立场吧？
this |
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g***x
发帖数: 1587 | 14 因为我的speculating是基于事实的合理的推测，草包律师没有speculating，而是在造
谣。他的说法同事实相矛盾。事实是八哥八嫂指控院方没有提供羊穿选择，草包律师却
说他们指控院方让他们签了看不懂的文件。
我很好奇的是你们这类人在草包律师公开造谣时没有跳出来大声指责，你在造谣，或者
怯生生地说一句你在斯白克雷霆。而是跳出来赞赏，真是合理推断耶，事情就是这样的
耶。如果你们的确弱智到事实谣言不分，我也不会介意，谁会计较残障人士的智力问题
呢？但当我用事实戳破草包律师的谣言时，你却跳出来天真地问，你也在斯白克雷霆耶
，为啥不让别人斯白克雷霆呢（其实是造谣）？实在惊叹这种坚决不要脸的精神。 |
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n****m
发帖数: 1283 | 15 No one is questioning that the couple has done a lot to support the child.
However, it is how 8 year father deflame his wife and the lawsuit that make
people uncomfortable.
There was not much social support in China.
However, the US local government and social network have provided a lot of
support. Even without the lawsuit, children with disabiliyt could still make
it. Is the lawsuit a must to guarantee the life of the child?
The lawsuit itself is controversal. While you could trust 8 year fat... 阅读全帖 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 来自主题: Investment版 - 论长期投机 看了前面某个大牛的学习笔记，偶也来发表感慨。
偶几乎是100%的投机者，而且准备长期投机下去。偶这里的投机是指wiki的定义：
"Speculation, in the narrow sense of financial
speculation, involves the buying, holding, selling, and short-selling of
stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, collectibles, real estate,
derivatives, or any valuable financial instrument to profit from
fluctuations in its price as opposed to buying it for use or for income via
methods such as dividends or interest."
换句话说：如果偶长期hold一只股票或者一只鸡，偶会不停的逢高就卖，遇低就买，
而不是简单的buy and hold. 只要这支股票或者 |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 17 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KennyD (\/)(\/) 于 (Thu Oct 4 03:21:37 2007) 提到:
看了前面某个大牛的学习笔记，偶也来发表感慨。
偶几乎是100%的投机者，而且准备长期投机下去。偶这里的投机是指wiki的定义：
"Speculation, in the narrow sense of financial
speculation, involves the buying, holding, selling, and short-selling of
stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, collectibles, real estate,
derivatives, or any valuable financial instrument to profit from
fluctuations in its price as opposed to buying it for use or for income via
methods such a |
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 18 In another word, I keep speculating not because I believe my trading
skills (Do I even have any FA/TA skills?), but I was hoping the market
would go in a certain way that favors speculators. Right now it looks
like one.
There are too few people doing long term performance tracking, so I
don't have much data to prove my theory. But for myself, my trading
style has not changed much in the past 4 years. So far, in bull years
(high alpha, low beta) I beat the index once but lost twice. In bear
years |
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 19 Investment and speculation are 2 different types of gambling. Investment is
I put my money betting on that a piece of leaf will drop on the floor
someday somewhere. Speculation is I put my money betting on when or where
will the leaf drop on the floor, or even betting on where will the leaf be 2
seconds later.
From the beginning, you whole point was about a vivid stock market. What if
we can only trade one week a year, like most livestock market? What if every
individual can only trade 20 times |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 "Never buy any commodities as investment."
Those are for speculation only. But again, they are very
good candidates for speculation. |
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s*******d
发帖数: 126 | 21 you are missing my point, which is that a sound investement stradegy should
be *independent* of any speculations. People can look at the same data/
information, e.g. 4 trillion dollars sitting in MMs, an all time high, and
reach vastly different conclusions (speculations). Whose guess is correct or
should we believe? I say none at all. I have no idea how the original
poster reached his/her conclusion that the stock market won't recover in the
next few years, or all roses will die for that matter |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 22 Hello I am new and would like to learn from people on this board how to
invest but not to speculate. I does not like the high risk associated with
speculation. High reward/risk matters the most. |
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 23 Who's the person define Gold is inflation protected?
Even though it does protect inflation, speculation has already taken that
into account for many many years. Believe it or not, you won't see any
inflation protection when inflation really comes. Most commodity price is
purely determined by speculation.
it
not
dollar
% |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 24 yes, the government is kidnapped by rich speculation guys. it taxes more on
wages while taxes less on capital gain. it encourages speculation and punish
real wealth making. Short term capital gain tax should be much higher (
twice or higher) than marginal income tax, and long term capital gain
definition should be changed to at least 5 years. |
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S******1
发帖数: 1831 | 25 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/housing-dead-bubble
Five years after the housing market peaked, conditions are not improving in
most areas. The latest data shows housing prices are still down and housing
sales are sluggish. New home sales hit a record low in February and the S&P/
Case-Shiller home price index suffered it's sixth-consecutive price slump in
January.
Unfortunately, the halcyon years of real estate will not return, no matter
how much stimulus is pumped into the economy, ... 阅读全帖 |
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t****g
发帖数: 35582 | 26 我承认sliver rally主要的driving力量是speculation，不过silver的"value"比gold
还是要强的。
而且从market performance也可以看出来，在预期通胀和经济增长的指导下
speculation，"industrial value"
背景更强的金属炒作本钱更大，比如，银，铜，锡。
这就是我的观点。 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 27 it's good that you used the word "speculation"
in gold, there is no speculation coz gold itself is money
people should change the way of thinking to understand this
people should think how many different things they can buy using gold
in infalation, gold, i.e., the money, buys less other commodities such as
copper, food, energy...so you see those things outperform gold
in delfation, gold buys more of those things so gold outperforms them
gold |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 28 Actually, this is one area that a value investor could step in. If one
cannot estimate the value of the net worth at death (bankrupcy), how can one
even estimate the value of the living when future is completely unknown? It
requires many skills and perhaps even a team of lawyers, but I don't think
it is completely speculation. The so-called value investments by guys like
ljiiuan2 in stock board is speculation. One wrong will wipe him out for sure. |
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g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 29 认为sp500的list能beat其他list，算不算actively speculating market?
看history表现？
看history来预测未来，算不算speculate market
要我说，这些都是半斤八两
return |
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m***e
发帖数: 48 | 30 some good article I found on-line
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Crash Continues
PMI mortgage insurance now refuses to insure more than $350,000 of risk in
speculative markets like San Jose/San Francisco.
New house sales plummet 9.2% in January nationwide, while median prices fall
13%.
Speculators now account for 25% of all purchases, and an additional 13% are
vacation houses, making market very likely to go into free-fall when they all
sell.
This winter's sales volume in Santa Clara County is o |
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s*******w
发帖数: 210 | 31 尚未买房的，当然不喜欢这房价接着这么涨。已经买了的，大概大多数人买的是
starter's house。就是说，现有的房子离你的 dream house 还相差甚远。打个比方说，
你现在的房子是 30 万，你的 dream house 现在要 80 万。如果五年后你现在的房子翻
了一倍，值六十万，而你的 dream house 则涨至 160 万。所以你要多花一倍（in this
instance, that's going to be $1,000,000 ) 的钱才能住进你的 dream house. 除非你
的收入涨得比房价快(dollar for dollar, not in terms percentage)你只能离你的梦想
越来越远。想一想，五年里甚至十年里，想多省下五十万对大多数人可不是闹着玩的。
房子接着这么张下去，高兴得只有发展商和那些speculative investors, 就是手里同时
炒几处房子的人。我们这些已买房的和未买房的都高兴不到哪里去。最好是就这么稳步不
动，尚未买房的可以慢慢得赞钱买，已买房的可以慢慢得赞钱买更大的房子，发展商和那
些specula... 阅读全帖 |
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W*******l
发帖数: 222 | 32 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
GlacierMin (秦皇汉武) 于 (Sat Sep 17 22:24:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
我爸妈偶尔用落地晒衣架把衣服晾在阳台上。今天某个邻居丢了一个纸条。我看了以后
非常生气。字里行间充满了种族歧视。原文如下：
This is Not China...its the GOOD be USA(还双线画上了USA)!!
According to the Bylaws...you can not (画上了下划线)DRY/HANG clothes on your
balcony!
I am tired of seeing your laundry...takes away from the beauty of the
building. Please take care of today!
首句中就stereotype China and Chinese，让我非常不爽！靠，咱中国可是美国人的债
主！我仔细查阅了我的lease，里面只是说"may not"而不是"can not"。两个... 阅读全帖 |
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L***H
发帖数: 117 | 33 You don't even know LZ and wrote such a long article based on your
speculation. And you are accusing LZ for speculation in the same time?
It is true that LZ should have admitted calling 911 in the first place but I
don't think she did anything over the line. The proper steps would be: 1)
Communicate politely about the noise 2) Complain strongly and show the
regulation/law 3)Call 911 around 12AM-1AM (not in the day light because they
are allowed to be noisy), document proof and prepare for legal... 阅读全帖 |
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z****l
发帖数: 5282 | 34 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
horselibra (冷静神功 - 修炼第一层) 于 (Wed Jun 30 21:32:30 2010, 美东) 提到:
另外，如果不住旅馆的，
想换机票的话也很不错
20000点可以换好多家航空公司的25000点
直接就是一张往返机票
发信人: horselibra (冷静神功 - 修炼第一层), 信区: ebiz
标 题: starwood AMEX cc 30000 points Bonus
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 30 21:14:42 2010, 美东)
http://slickdeals.net/forums/showthread.php?sduid=91487&t=21048
神医神护游医散户骚货旅游开房必备的仙卡阿
approved的请自觉给俺个包子攒rp阿
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
nkbluemouse (蓝皮鼠) 于 (Wed Jun 30 23:45:36 2010, 美东) ... 阅读全帖 |
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L*******y
发帖数: 62 | 35 【 以下文字转载自 EasyMoney 俱乐部 】
发信人: newjersey (NJ furniture dealer), 信区: EasyMoney
标 题: Radisson Big Night 50,000 Points Promo Returns!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 7 09:34:57 2012, 美东)
"As I speculated this weekend, it looks like the rumor is confirmed and the
Radisson Big Night Giveaway is back!
As the landing page suggests, registration will open in a little over seven
days – at midnight Eastern on May 15th. Last time I stayed up until
midnight Eastern (Tweeting along with other miles and points ju... 阅读全帖 |
|
L*******y
发帖数: 62 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 EasyMoney 俱乐部 】
发信人: newjersey (NJ furniture dealer), 信区: EasyMoney
标 题: Radisson Big Night 50,000 Points Promo Returns!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 7 09:34:57 2012, 美东)
"As I speculated this weekend, it looks like the rumor is confirmed and the
Radisson Big Night Giveaway is back!
As the landing page suggests, registration will open in a little over seven
days – at midnight Eastern on May 15th. Last time I stayed up until
midnight Eastern (Tweeting along with other miles and points ju... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 37 美国的rule就是假定人是有理性的，假定人都是喜欢speculate的。所有的行为都是你
个人的责任，法律不决定你是否可以去做，而是决定这些行为（被捉）的后果。
所以理论上任何人都可以做坏事，可以speculate，但是做之前要好好想想做这些事情
的后果。所以美国小混混多，因为他们做些小恶多半可以逃脱制裁。但是一直这么下去
，早晚被捉，然后就万劫不复。
另外学习法律，了解做这些事情的后果是个人的责任。拥有枪支，是美国人的权利。
这是这个体系的做法，好坏不论。 |
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s**a
发帖数: 1995 | 38 Thanks for sharing. I also 推荐
<> by
George Gamow
http://www.amazon.com/One-Two-Three-Infinity-Speculations/dp/04
乔治·伽莫夫（1904-1968）（George Gamow）世界著名物理学家和天文学家，科普界
一代宗师。
It remains one of the most well received ever in the popular science genre
Chinese Translation:
《从一到无穷大》
I read and (I thought I) understood the book in junior-high. However, after I graduated from college, the book was still appealing. Only a true master can explain... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*******l
发帖数: 4637 | 39 Well, 我不会speculate网友的情况。也不根据speculation做价值判断。
你我的区别。 |
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t*******r
发帖数: 22634 | 40 我现在说对于 “白纸娃” 的 protocols。
我觉得对于 “白纸娃”，最大的问题是 unpredictable。而 handle unpredictable
的第一条，就是 (reasonably) better safe than sorry。
而对应于上面那一条的 protocol，我觉得就是一句话：
=====================================================================
Protocol 1.1：
Do not make not-easily-reversible-decision based entirely on speculation.
=====================================================================
解释一下里面的用词：
not-easily-reversible decision, means a decision cannot be easily
reversed, or cause concrete negative i... 阅读全帖 |
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t******l
发帖数: 10908 | 41 我不是这个意思。我是说，在我们人类的 neuron system 里面，有一类特殊的 neuron
，叫 mirror neuron, that fires both when an animal acts and when the animal
observes the same action performed by another.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_neuron
[quote]
Possible functions: Understanding intentions, Learning facilitation, Empathy
, Human self awareness, Language, Automatic Imitation, Motor mimicry, Autism
, Theory of mind, Gender differences
[/quote]
[quote]
The function of the mirror system in humans is a subject of much specu... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****h
发帖数: 5 | 43 FRE
This is a speculative play.
ER tomorrow morning before open.
Strategy: load on dip today and sell at high tomorrow. The most speculative
one is load its this month calls. A little less risky one is buy FRE calls
and FNM puts at the same time. YMYD
P.S. don't forget to send me BAOZI if you profit from this transaction. |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 44 想抄底的同学最好还是多存钱吧。
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254354/the_dismal_out
The Dismal Outlook for the US and Global Economy and the Financial Markets
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Nov 11, 2008
Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the
last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for
financial markets:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse
and longer and... 阅读全帖 |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 45 还真有这句话，不过只是泛泛而谈，没说最近要加息
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Stronger regulation should be the first line of defense
against excessive speculation that could send the economy into a new crisis,
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday.
But he didn't rule out higher interest rates to stop new speculative bubbles
from forming.
The Fed chief's remarks were his most extensive on the subject since the
housing market's tumble led to the gravest financial crisis since World War
II -- and perhaps the worst in mo |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 46
低息 is the biggest factor. War in Iraq pales in comparison. 低息 drives
people to speculate like crazy and take on insane amount of debt. The end
result is a devastating bubble when the speculation starts to unwind. We
have seen back to back to back housing bubbles in US, Dubai and China,
which were all caused by the same irresponsible 低息 policies. |
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w*******r
发帖数: 1699 | 47 an act or instance of speculating: as a : assumption of unusual business
risk in hopes of obtaining commensurate gain b : a transaction involving
such speculation |
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g8
发帖数: 3784 | 48 By Hou Qingyang (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-02-24 08:02
Contrary to much speculation China may not buy the International Monetary
Fund's (IMF) remaining 191.3 tons of gold which is up for sale as it does
not want to upset the market, a top industry official told China Daily
yesterday.
"It is not feasible for China to buy the IMF bullion, as any purchase or
even intent to do so would trigger market speculation and volatility," said
the official from the China Gold Association, on condition of ano |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 49 Thanks, Lili Niu:
you mean integrated companies are keeping losing money on refinery side?
Small oil & gas Co's have M&A speculation?
How you know that MA speculation has not priced in yet?
invest |
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c*******g
发帖数: 203 | 50 From my observation, the adjustment is minor this time, which has already
finished yesterday. Now it is time to form a minor uptrend for a short time
(~1wk). Of course, speculation is never going to be correct until confirmed
tomorrow.
Speculate: DJIA fluctuate between 11000 and 11100
Do not follow this for your trading. YMYD. |
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