l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 1 Dow drops 700 points as sell-off steepens as rising rates rattle investors
经济太好了，联储要继续加息，市场担心联储继续加息。其实推迟一下就行了。
不过叔支持继续加息，把股市的泡沫挤一下。 |
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m****e
发帖数: 85 | 2 这与yield curve有关。
Put it simple banks can finance themselves at short term rate and at the
same time finance clients at long term rate。The difference in these two
rates is what they are after。They make more money when yield curve steepens
given loans will not default. Now market has expectation that curve will
steepen so their stock prices soar. |
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l*****s
发帖数: 1754 | 3 from the last image LZ posted,
1. image->adjust->shadow and highlight
2. duplicated layer, in multiply mode, add layer mask, image->apply image to
layer mask using merged RGB at normal mode->blur layer mask at 20 pixel
3. convert file to LAB, adjust curve, steepen channel a, and b, and it
turned out blue is too much. in layer mask, image->apply image->merged
channel b, then dial down opacity to my taste.
4.at the point I noticed there is a blue overcast in the original, and
steepen curved of cha... 阅读全帖 |
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n***j
发帖数: 1747 | 4 再加息房市也会受波及的
2016年我的利息才2.75，现在都过5了 |
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l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 7 也该挤一挤了。经济仍然强劲，也许美联储加息有点急、猛。
831点，3%而已。 |
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a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 9 想在最低利息套牢一波人， 想长期套牢一波人。
08/16/2019忙着发英雄帖，召开武林大会，发行50-100年期国债。
09/18/2019,国债就没人要了，国债抵押品变现困难，隔夜拆借利率暴涨，
直接住进ICU病房，Fed开始紧急注射安非他命，注入流动性。
Fed说，这是临时的问题，很快就搞定。
结果这针越打越猛，从安非他命换成了芬太尼，10/22/2019那一天，就打了
一公斤，整整1000亿美元。
前面fed主席还拒绝承认这是QE 4， 但是不承认有用吗？
药能停吗？
回头看8月的50-100年期国债的事情，真是天大的笑话，美联储
没有点逼数吗？ 老搞这种低级的行为艺术，你觉得有意思吗？
U.S. contemplates 50- and 100-year bonds after yields plummet
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-08-16/50-100-year-us-bonds
By ALEXANDRA HARRIS AND EMILY BARRETTBLOOMBERG
AUG. 16, 2019 3:55... 阅读全帖 |
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m**k
发帖数: 1503 | 10 https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/tax-reform
似乎砍得太狠了点，虽然比起4年前的已经好点了。看下来有点捏把汗，cut那么多，就
靠堵itemized deduction和海外资产抽税来补。
这个其实数据都有，cut之后会缺多少，itemized deduction能出来多少，剩下的全部
都要靠海外资产，可是海外资产到底多少这个就没底了，就算知道，怎么抽税也是个很
大问题，这个事情后面一定会被人攻击的。
trump自己也显得没信心，被问到的时候只说经济增长了税收就会多起来，但是这个就
显得很wishful thinking了，如果税收不够，就只能减福利了，这个估计也在他的计划
里面只是没提。
Too few Americans are working, too many jobs have been shipped overseas, and
too many middle class families cannot make ends meet. This tax plan
directly meets these challeng... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 11 同意。
什么叫得罪latino? 现在非法移民到处都是，还白拿福利，给社会的贡献是net
negative,如果没有人得罪latino，这个国家怎么办？有人出头，就会有更多的人支持
。很多公民和合法移民早就看不惯了，但政客都是老油条，谁都不出来说公道话，现在
他初来说，害怕没人支持吗？很多合法的墨西哥移民也是支持的。
不明白什么叫团结共和党烂摊子，和民主党斗？人正不怕影子歪，trump就是要美国更
好，符合国家利益的就做，不符合的就反对。按党派划分本来就是歪风邪气。
该关税当然不是明天就能做好的，但也得开始做啊。平衡贸易，促进就业，从来不是一
朝一夕的，trump能当8年，就能改8年，至少能往好里走。
tax cut减少税收，但海外资金repatriate也能收回很多税收啊，海外资金回游投资本
土，促进就业，也就促进税收啊。我相信trump的tax plan靠铺。他的网页说了4条，哪
条不合理，哪条不大块人心？
The Trump Tax Plan Is Fiscally Responsible
The Trump tax cuts are fully paid for by:
1 R... 阅读全帖 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 12 Or do you think the steepening curve is good for bank earning powers? |
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t*******d
发帖数: 2570 | 13 stock portfolio: 66%
mutual fund: 16.73%
Both stock and mutual fund portfolios lose ground compared to SP500. Stock
portfolio return is negative this week while SP500 is positive.
Lack of ideas on what to buy at this moment.
Anyone comments on agency REIT companies? Which borrow short-term to buy
long-term MBS and earn the interest spread between short term and long term
interest. Is the yield curve is going to steepen or flat out? |
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T*******t
发帖数: 9274 | 15 buy steepeners...but maybe too late already |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 16 Common suspects, such as asset bubbles, unexpected inflation, and Big Ben
being right that is US economy will do well in the next couple of years. And
more importantly, flattered yield may not simply come from a rising short
term interest rate.
Given central banks have nothing to show in terms of battling deflation, and
Fed are rightfully worrying about deflation rather than inflation since the
crisis, what make you think the yield curve would steepen from here.
up? |
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h******n
发帖数: 106 | 17 你可以google
cms spread steepener note
风险应该也不大。
但回报不好说。worst case 有些年份是0也有可能。
这个钱基本上就锁住15年了。
% |
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d**j
发帖数: 5290 | 18 昨天太晚了，刚才狗了一下，原来是 cms是constant maturity swap，这个东西叫cms
spread steepener note，可以自己狗。
不过我觉得没什么可学的，这种东西都太复杂了，把模型给你你都不一定能看明白。大
概知道是什么东西就好。具体这玩意估计底下是一个30年-2年的swap，上面是跟两个指
数挂钩的各种derivative，fee不知道是多少，3%？4%？总之就是设计成不管怎么样
issuer都不会亏钱，市场不动就吃管理费，大涨给你一个limited收益，股灾了就吃你
的本金。要是真能搞明白就不用在这呆了，上花街忽悠人吧。
总之，这东西一但买了钱估计就锁了15年了。现在的买这个收益估计不错，税务上应该
也可以。至于风险，2年有点长，15年就太长了，普通人类应该是没法预测会发生什么
的，所以看你自己风险喜好和承受能力了。这个真的要自己做一下测试，搞清楚。许多
人总是有些奇怪的想法，动不动就要求保本高收益什么的。。。不过保本高收益的话我
可以给你一个很不错的模型，underlying可以放到余额宝，每个月定期一天把利息拿出
比如一半来买彩票，又保本又能追... 阅读全帖 |
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a********e
发帖数: 508 | 20 short 10y long 2y.赌yield curve steepening.不过这算不上什么内幕吧.别迷信gs哈
10 |
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M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 21 What is it about USL that drove the outperformance? Even though USL and USO
both track WTI light, sweet crude, USL is designed to track the daily
changes in the average prices of the near month futures contract as well as
the contracts for the 11 months that follow the near month contract. When a
futures curve spends a lot of time in contango (months further out on the
curve trade at a higher price), it is generally beneficial to own a product
that tracks the average of 12 months of contracts ra... 阅读全帖 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 22 She is saying, let the curve steepen! Just like what BOJ and ECB did... |
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p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 23 Can't agree with you any more.
These guys don't know what risks they are taking by using ARMs.
They actually are betting again banks on not only the interest rates but
also the yield curve shape (flatten or steepen). Like you said, when yield
curve reversed (short term > long term), then ARMs rates are actually higher
than long term rates.
Banks have all the weapons to calibrate the yield curves and use historical
data and economic analysis to forecast future rates. A normal customer doesn
't.
A... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******2
发帖数: 412 | 24 我之前纠正的一问题就是我backswing too inside and too flat. 这样我下杆的时候
，反而会steepen the plane,不然打不到球或者打薄，这样动态的STEEP PLANE会容易
打成SLICE或者HIT DOWN |
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p*******r
发帖数: 180 | 25 So the punk in me said “go run a 50mile race” after my only long run this
year on the PCT late August. This was two weeks before the McKenzie River
Trail 50M. It is a sketchy idea. I had no formal training this summer except
my non-race-oriented conditioning runs up to 50+ mpw for a little over a
month before climbing took over and sucked everything out of me. During the
climbing months, I ran very little during the week and the average mpw was
an embarrassing 20 from late May to end of August.... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******r
发帖数: 13580 | 26 Leg 29: empty the tank
My 3rd leg is my hardest leg. It starts with a continous 3.5 mile climb,
which gets gradually steeper. It then follows a 3 mile downhill almost as
steep. The course started out in the shade. "Nice", I said to myself. First
mile was pretty steep, I decided not to look at the GPS except at mile
splits and run by feel. Split 1 was 8:10, which was surprisingly fast. The
hill levels out a little after mile 1, just enough to relax my quads a
little before picking up the pace. Mi... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****s
发帖数: 1754 | 27 HDR稍微过了点。我调一张试试。
1. image->adjust->shadow and highlight
2. duplicated layer, in multiply mode, on layer mask, image->apply image->
merged RGB at normal mode, then blur layer mask at 20 pixel
3. convert file to LAB, adjust curve, steepen channel a, and b, and it
turned out blue is too much. in layer mask, image->apply image->merged
channel b, then dial down opacity to my taste. |
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l*****s
发帖数: 1754 | 28 I missed one importand step which is to look at the white balance in the
original image. It might have a slight blue overcast. It is not too bad in
the original, but when I steepen curves in LAB, it get exaggerated, and the
image is too blue. so maybe colors should be more like this. |
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t***a
发帖数: 107 | 29 it was originally from struture note investment.
forward 30s2s curve is much flatterner than spot curve and historical
perfomrance of [30s2s>0] are two key factors in selling this kind of product
.
to hedge this, IB does not need to go to insurance companies.
1. delta: to enter a steepener for curve hedge
2. swpation vol: typical vol spread hedge, sell vol on long tail vs buy vol
on short tail
3. correlation: sell atm curve option while running skew risk or sell 0
strike Digital Monthly Floor di |
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z********n
发帖数: 343 | 30 老黄 发表于 2010-9-9 18:44
观点是星星的。我的解释是不是和星星一样，可不知道啊。
USDCHF， GOLD ：
USDCHF 我没看，把它当glod一起看好了。GOLD到没到顶还不好说，但是因为一致看
涨，可能很危险了。contrarian view 加上星星对美元上涨的看法.
（虽然大家嘴上都看好GOLD，似乎整体上还处于横盘缓长，有下跌也是回调，可能
深一些而已。这是偶认为的）
30YR ：
长期债跌了，因为拍卖的不好。这是好现象。30年的利率还不到4%，太悲观了吧。
Yield curve steepened是好事。房贷利率也许不会再低了，不过现在的经济不是要靠
房市拉起。（如果短期债拍卖的不好，那么FED才就麻烦了）。如果long end yield up
是信心的恢复，看美元上涨就是应当的。
JPY ：
日元走强不符合日本出口的利益，也不符合日本老龄化低增长的趋势。目前形势多被
解释为currency diversification和日本海外投资的回流，都归结为风险原因。如果（
有些片面的）把JPY看做风险指数的话，那么JPY到顶，SPY和U... 阅读全帖 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 31 http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/earnings-re
Next week we have rate decisions from two of the major central banks -- the
Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The former is expected to
keep its rates unchanged at 0.50% and boost the current QE target to 600
billion pounds. The latter is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00%
after it extended 489 billion euros in loans to European banks last month.
It will also outline its future policy on Thursday, including any p... 阅读全帖 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 32 http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/earnings-re
Next week we have rate decisions from two of the major central banks -- the
Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The former is expected to
keep its rates unchanged at 0.50% and boost the current QE target to 600
billion pounds. The latter is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00%
after it extended 489 billion euros in loans to European banks last month.
It will also outline its future policy on Thursday, including any p... 阅读全帖 |
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