N***9
发帖数: 125 | 1 这两天ETFC相对（!）平静，交易量也下来了。没有新闻没有量，不会有太大波动。下
一步何去何从，个人觉得还是要看基本面。
ETFC从本质上是一个相当盈利的broker拖着一个巨大的asset累赘。之所以从2007年底
到现在能有一波波的行情又一次次的失落，就是这两边的不断交战。巨大的庄稼和一直
排在前几位的short是ETFC比较独特的地方。散户其实没有任何发言权。
先说asset这头。
2007年十一月ETFC的次贷爆掉了，20块一夜之间掉到5块。这时候谣言四起，连续造成
了三四波行情。最后Citadel作为救世主出现打包收购了二十几亿的次贷并成为大股东
。这是第一次稀释，但是这事只是个开始。
当时的分析是，ETFC是fire sale, Citadel占了大便宜（12%的利率，资产好像是0.36
票面价值）。因为从当时的资产表上看ETFC资产品质不是那么差，subprime只占一小部
分，现金流还很强，是救急而不是救穷。但是后来形势急转直下问题扩展到prime,alt-
A甚至AAA，这就彻底成了一笔烂账。最后Citadel应该是不会赔本，但也不好说。
etrade幸亏是死得早，要 |
|
E*******r
发帖数: 2723 | 2 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Qiu (邱) 于 (Sun Nov 8 22:42:27 2009, 美东) 提到:
看到有人把经济危机归于共和党的deregulation，实在忍不住说两句。
经济危机不是因为deregulation，而是有太多的regulation，这些regulation
荒唐到银行为了避免诉讼而不得不做出很多违背自身经济利益的事情。
Carter搞了个Community Reinvestment Act，
Clinton为了拉老黑劳模的选票，极大地加强了Community Reinvestment Act的适用范
围，
使得银行如果不给黑人/劳模社区贷款的话，很容易被告，巨额settlement，
民主党又通过国会要求fannie mae, freddie mac给次级贷款担保，
高价购买次债产品,
来降低穷人贷款利率，增加黑人/劳模的home ownership比例，
subprime基本都是黑人/劳模，尽管它们人在美国只占少数。
当黑人/劳模通过各种fraud手段赖账不还时,
民主党控制的国会又让 |
|
i****e
发帖数: 451 | 3 这个没option
. Some time ago, the fast-
growing ETF company filed for an ETF covering China's real estate market.
Today, the
Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF launched on the NYSE Arca
platform under the symbol "TAO."
one umbrella. China, of course,
has been undergoing spectacular growth these past few years. At the same
time, international real estate
has become an area of particular interest to U.S. investors, in part because
of the subprime mortgage
problems in the United States.
estat |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4
Gonna lose your shirt tied your asset to these subprime quality bonds. |
|
c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 5 first time when I heard about subprime in 2007, the market hit new high, and
people laughed and forgot about it.
Now the euro debt issue, people talked about it and try to forget about it .
.. |
|
b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 6 he was forced to lend money to subprime. |
|
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 7 no, 就是07年3月，那是次贷危机对金融市场的第一次震荡。
# March 6: In a speech before the Independent Community Bankers of America's
Annual Convention and Techworld, Honolulu, Hawaii, Ben Bernanke, quoting
Alan Greenspan, warns that the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs),
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were a source of "systemic risk" and suggest
legislation to head off a possible crisis[74]
# April 2: New Century Financial, largest U.S. subprime lender, files for
chapter 11 bankruptcy.[75] |
|
f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 8 4% is not a big deal, so noisy... maybe 5% matters
last time the subprime blow up when the 10yr yield went up to 5% |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 9 要变天？
Bernanke: We Are Far From Being Out of the Woods- AP
* Fmr. Citi exec: I warned Rubin about mortgage risk- AP
* Lowenstein: Thanks to Greenspan and Bernanke, the next crisis could be
"even scarier"- Tech Ticker
* Goldman denies conflict of interest on subprime- NYTimes
* Rising mortgage rates: Not the Fed's fault- CNBC
* A financial 9/11: How the Wall Street crash changed America forever-
Tech Ticker |
|
|
|
c**u
发帖数: 2230 | 12 这个事只是开头, 听早上bloomberg的SEC conference call. Enforcement chief
Robert Khuzami 说会继续调查goldman在subprime里的practices. |
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 13 together will go Deutchebank, Morgan Stanley and UBS. Because they all
basically learned to do the same thing in late 2006/early 2007, when hedge
fund managers like Paulson, Eisman and Burry accumulated billions of dollars
of credit default swap contracts underwritten by these banks. To create
these insurance contracts to the specific needs of these subprime bears, the
banks must "manufacture" the assets to be insured against and sell these
assets to the "fools on the other side", such as AIG an |
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 14 BUSINESSWEEK: Buffett’s Goldman Warrants Drop by Almost $1 Billion on
Lawsuit
By Andrew Frye
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The value of Warren Buffett’s options to buy
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shares dropped by $950 million after regulators
sued the bank for misleading clients on the sale of securities tied to the
subprime mortgage market.
The warrants, which give Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. the right to buy
New York-based Goldman Sachs common stock for $115 a share, were worth
about $2.06 billi |
|
o*********l
发帖数: 1807 | 15 its called fiduciary duty. They definitely violated this duty to clients. I
am surprise that they still have clients after the subprime crisis. |
|
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 16 IS THE most powerful and controversial firm on Wall Street about to get the
comeuppance that so many think it deserves? On Friday April 16th America’s
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed civil charges against Goldman
Sachs and one of its vice-presidents, Fabrice Tourre, for allegedly
defrauding investors by failing to disclose vital information about a
financial product linked to subprime mortgages, as America’s housing market
was starting to wobble. Goldman’s shares tumbled, dragging |
|
e**s
发帖数: 4638 | 17 tg 还没有nc到买 subprime mortgage .....
其他的评级都是 triple A 的，在GS/MS的指导下，原也打算搞些portfolio, 胡core
没来得及签字 。。。。。 |
|
I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 18 Synthetic = repackaged + sliced and diced. They are still based on the
underlying cash flows. They aren't dreamed up even when they aren't plain
vanilla subprimes. The cause of all the financial trouble isn't the
packaging but is mostly related to the poor qualities of the original loans.
You can't call pigs real, while pork sausages "dreamed-up"... :) |
|
g****h
发帖数: 481 | 19 if there had not been so many derivatives that were created from those
loans, we would not have this catostraphy. The derivatives amplified
what would be a loss that are only limited to subprimes. We may not even
see the suffering of prime mortgages.
plain
loans. |
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 20 haha I was just teasing you. hey, seriously, how much synthetic stuff was cr
eated out of existing pool of outstanding subprime mortgage balances as of e
arly 2007? I really wanna know how much leverage the market had as a whole o
n the cash flows from those loans.
should |
|
o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 21 the quantity of underlying asset actually doesn't matter. as long as you
allow people bet on rates, indices, you'd allow people bet on whatever prime
/subprime mortgages. 比如说赌球吧，你难道限制总赌资不超过两队身家
总和么？doesn't make sense, right? 参赌双方买卖risk，球队根本就只是道具，
连商品都不是。
cr
e
o |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 22 They should probe Treasury Department for deliberately selling trillions
low-yield, over-priced subprime junk bonds to investors around the world. |
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 23 If TA can make you the money, everyone would be rich.
Wall street firms did not have to deal with the subprime, they could just
hire couple of TA genius to trade their house money. |
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 24 check news
(Adds future contract cancellations in sixth paragraph.)
By Christine Richard
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. said it
has torn up its remaining $16.4 billion of exposure to
collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgages.
The Wisconsin-regulated bond insurer will pay $2.6 billion
in cash and $2 billion of newly issued surplus notes in Ambac
Assurance Corp. to financial institutions to tear up the
contracts, according to a statement distribu |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 25
US Dollar is a zombie subprime currency that will be delisted from global
market in the next 3-5 years. It's hard to 贬值 against a currency that
will be delisted. |
|
h****g
发帖数: 312 | 26 同时，没有人可以100%胜率。就像soros97、98年在香港对阵中信巨亏一样，以下是
John Paulson今年的表现：
We've defended John Paulson in the past when it's been suggested that after
his amazing bet against subprime the bloom had come off the rose.
After all, you can't just repeat making the biggest bet of all time year
after year. It'd be fine if he never in his career had a period like 2007-
2009.
But now that we know how poorly his fund is doing in 2010, it's worth
revisiting the John Paulson question, and consider a few things.
* |
|
q**********e
发帖数: 270 | 27
角色而提的可行性建
说的真对
Subprime是骗局
Medcare也是骗局
401k更是骗局
股市当然是骗局
大家依然乐此不疲 |
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 28 还有几个Trillion的subprime and other loans. |
|
lO
发帖数: 227 | 29 包括黑人市政府发行的债券, 如Harrisburg发行的municipal bond,
以及黑人的mortgage bonds.
当年john paulson发现subprime mortgage 60%的debtors是黑人/劳模，
于是果断的做空，结果发了大财。
will
on
, |
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 30 我早就说过了，financial assurance里面
肯定死的是ABK，
RDN受影响最小，PMI也比较小。
别的小，都说不准。
RDN subprime涉及不多。 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 31 亲自体验自己投资的公司，而不是仅仅看报表数字，确实很可取。但有几点供你考虑。
（1） 公司经营好坏，往往不是通过customer service好坏就可以判断的。就像从前
subprime的时候。那时候愿意贷款给你的公司多了去了，服务都好得不得了，有的还帮
你做假材料。但哪些“服务好”的公司死的死，并的并。公司内部管理怎样，是不是承
担应承担的风险，就不得而知了。
（2）就信用卡这个来说，你看到了银行给点credit line，但是利息是怎样，各种fee
是怎样呢？要知道，credit line只是信用卡好坏的因素之一。你可能正好从来都是pay
in full，因此个人的经验并不能说明银行的承担风险的能力。
（3）商业银行的业务包括简单的checking业务、信用卡、简单贷款、Mortgage、 汇兑
、乃至wealth management等等。有的银行在这方面强，一些银行在那方面强。各方面
都强，还得brand name强。从这方面来说，我还是没看出USB比其他national banks强
在哪里。
归根到底，我个人认为，目前情况下，好银行比差一下的银行强在（1）利润高,（2） |
|
f*********9
发帖数: 1986 | 32 金融并未好转，Monday 又要大跌了。
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/25/bails-major-credit-unions/?
test=latestnews
Two years after the peak of the financial crisis, the federal government
swooped in to stabilize a crucial part of the credit-union sector
battered by losses on subprime mortgages.
Regulators announced Friday a rescue and revamping of the nation's
wholesale credit union system, underpinned by a federal guarantee valued
at $30 billion or more. Wholesale credit unions don't deal with the
gen |
|
r*******t
发帖数: 8550 | 33 Back in 2009,
It is estimated that BAC bought CFC losing $40B-$50B incluiding several
laysuits in the amount of $8B, $1B, ....
It is estimated that BAC bought ML losing $15B but ML making it all back
with AIG paying out 100% from government's aid plus ML's asset management /
trading.
If AIG didn't get government's aid and went bankcrupt, ML's hedging from AIG
will become $0 instead of $8 - $9 Billion, BAC after CFC merge would go
bankcrupt together with AIG sometime in March/April 2009, if gover... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
|
S**********r
发帖数: 553 | 36 mortgage buy-back破坏力可能可以和subprime比了。 我想美国不会把自己的银行业给
搞垮吧。 估计最后要settle. 不然整个经济更惨。
说实话，我也没信心，估计BAC到个位数是今年内的事，然后增发。
不过我还是会hold一直到$20再放手。 反正我也不指望BAC给我赚钱。 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 37 ETFC当年不自量力跟人家学搞subprime，现在估计还找不到北呢。 |
|
S**********r
发帖数: 553 | 38 鹿死谁手，现在太早了。 他当年short subprime时也输了1年半后才爆赢得。
也许，现在是个机会。 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 39 看似，是个全国性的系统问题。有可能和Subprime一开始一样，大家觉得不是个特大的
事，但实际上不好说。
我得好好研究研究。
劝诸位也先研究研究。 |
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 40 The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether JPMorgan
Chase allowed a hedge fund to improperly select assets for a $1.1 billion
deal backed by subprime mortgages, according to people familiar with the
probe.
For more:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39954626 |
|
f*******4
发帖数: 345 | 41 PAULSON 在Subprime赢的一票，不是已经被曝光是和狗剩狼狈为奸的吗？
他的黄金基金非常可能还是和狗剩狼狈为奸的。 |
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 42
VIX is at the edge that never been reached since summer of 07 - just
starting of the subprime worry. to break here, needs a leap of faith -
something shockingly surprises market to the upside, not POMO, |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 43 世界经济一体。
这次是美国二十几年来第三次试图re-balance。亚洲及其他新兴国家发展过快，导致美
国制造业萎缩，负债增长过高。美国仗着货币主导国地位，输出通胀、掠夺财富，以达
到“平衡”。
第一次受害者是日本、OPEC国家。之后美国也受拖累。
第二次是97年所谓亚洲金融海啸。从亚洲四小开始，之后到日本，然后俄罗斯。导致俄
罗斯default债务，LTCM倒闭清算。美国也受拖累。FED带一队银行出来急救。
这是第三次。FED输出通胀，必然还会回来影响到美国。尤其是目前美国债务水平和以
往几十年相比完全不在同一水平上。对世界经济的影响，我猜Bernanke等人也猜想不出
来。
08年subprime和各银行的问题，现在看来只是今后事件的导火索，而不是事件本身。事
件本身是国际收支不平衡。这一次re-balance的结果，要不就是新兴国家认倒霉，继续
沦为打工仔。要么就是美国承认势力衰退，美国人财富降低。
更有可能是二者结合。 |
|
w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 44 Rothschilds Stage Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt To Kill Islamic Banks In
Emerging North African Markets
PwP Exclusive ©Feb 9 2011
Background: Tunisia has undergone increasing economic liberalization over
the last decade: In the 2010-2011 World Economic Forum’s Global
Competitiveness Report, it was ranked as the most competitive country in
Africa, as well as the 32nd most economically competitive country globally.
North Africa’s large Muslim populations are a vast business opportunity
... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 45 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: catcher (Can I?), 信区: Military
标 题: 这个猛：UT托存了10亿美元的金条
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Apr 16 21:42:59 2011, 美东)
真正的变现硬通货哦！Total 6,643 bars of bullion, or 664,300 ounces (18,832.
588 kilograms)
The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S.
academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion as
the metal reaches a record, according to the fund’s board.
The fund, whose $19.9 billion in assets ranked it behind Harvard University
’s e... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 46 所以今天是小调整, 不过是很好的预示了.
小散有利润就拿住. 别在进了. 有几个预言subprime和去年跌的人, 早就说现在是
selling
season. |
|
c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 47 此次危机起于subprime，现房市仍低迷，银行坏账还在，加息必恶化房市。但从the
news conference看，QE3 目前无可能。
的。
多。 |
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 48 今天看抢劫日报的一点想法，好象是因为fed 还有其他大户抛售subprime backed bond
被连累了。 |
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 49 1. PC and internet bring the economy to a new level
2. dot.com bubble
3. bubble collapse
4. recovery and golobilization create new value
5. subprime/financial bubble
6. bubble collapse
7. recovery from an over reaction to the crisis
8. QE1+QE2 bubble starts
9. Bubble collapsing??? |
|
b********0
发帖数: 339 | 50 以下是WSJ上的一篇文章
Paulson Funds Struggle as Big Bets Backfire; Gold Works
By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
Prominent hedge-fund investor John Paulson, who runs the $38 billion Paulson
& Co., has suffered sizable losses in recent weeks amid fresh worries about
the global economy, pushing a key fund deep into the red for the year so
far.
Mr. Paulson's $9 billion Advantage Plus fund lost more than 13% in the early
part of this month, through June 10, leaving it down 19.65% for the year,
according to two investors b... 阅读全帖 |
|
