w****r
发帖数: 90 | 1 呵呵, 你说的主要是这几年的事了, 这几年制药公司在市场上表现不好是十年前埋下的
原因. 如果你从90年代末就开始炒的话, 应该记得整个市场在IT泡沫一蹶不振时制药股
一支独秀的场面, 尤其是MRK简直是如日中天, Pfizer的价格也至少是现在的一倍. ELN
的case就更不对了, 你说的$26.85时正是Tysabri刚刚被批准上市, 作为治疗mulitiple
sclerosis一线用药, 市场预计超过2个billion的时候. $8.85应该是发现使用中有三
例很罕见的脑部疾病而被FDA从市场上recall的时候, 在这之后ELN的股票还曾到过3块
多呢. 而且对于ELN来说它的accounting的问题远比Tysabri的问题要严重多了. 现在
Tysabri又加了个warning从新回到市场上了, ELN也在慢慢爬升, 虽然我还是不太看好
它. 股票呢, 是看你想做长线还是短线还是day trading了. 如果说做长线, 制药类股
票中的major pharm, 包括PFE, MRK, LLY, JNJ, NVS, GSK, WYE一直以来都是被当作稳
定投资的类型. |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 2 22 Hot Drugs Facing FDA Approval in 2012
By Adam Feuerstein 11/29/11 - 08:55 AM EST
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Here's your first look at the biotech and
pharmaceutical companies with pending FDA drug approval decisions in 2012.
The calendar on the following pages captures nearly two-dozen U.S.
regulatory events -- FDA drug approvals and advisory panels -- expected
between December 2011 and July 2012. As every savvy biotech investor and
trader knows, the volatility in biotech and drug stocks ramps sig... 阅读全帖 |
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J********n
发帖数: 534 | 3 I totally agree with your comments on bapineuzumab.
However for Tysabri in the US/EU market, it is doing well and I am expecting
it to perform better in the near future although more PML cases are also
expected. Considering the lack of cure for Multiple Sclerosis or Crohn's
disease, I do not think the patients have many other alternative choices
other than Tysabri. |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 4 From cholesterol fighters to asthma relief, these treatments could earn Big
Pharma $170 billion
By Mike Tarsala | 24/7 Wall St.
Jul 22, 2009 | Updated: 12:29 p.m. ET Jul 22, 2009
Safety and efficacy data are critical to drug candidates. But what really
makes a potential drug attractive is strong top-line data, a new biotech-
based treatment, and a massive potential market.
With help from Thomson Reuters' SD Pharma database and our own backlog of
coverage, BioHealthInvestor.com, a 247wallst.com ... 阅读全帖 |
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C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 5 The biotechnology giant’s first-quarter profits beat expectations on growth
of its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, and at the same time the company
gave important new data on its oral multiple sclerosis drug BG-12.
Biogen said the drug cut relapses 49% after two years, compared to placebo,
with an annual relapse reduction rate of 53%. It also reduced the
progression of disability by 38%. In comparison, Teva Pharmaceutical
Industries (TEVA) last week said its oral multiple sclerosis drug reduced... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 6 看看Elan/Biogen的Tysabri 你就知道了。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 7 不会破产。他的药治T315I，没有别的药。要想Beat Gleevec是不可能的了，但要下架
也不会。
Mostly like case is that they will reuse the testing kit from MolecularMD to
confirm T315I before use.
The good news is the the kit was there and easy to relaunch/activate it. It
is a much easier case than Tysabri because the diagnostic kit is available.
Also it is a lot easier to deal with thrombosis (Asparin maybe?) than lethal
virus that has no cure. Also people with T315I are dying and it is an acute
case, while MS was a chronic case. My be... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 8 不会破产。他的药治T315I，没有别的药。要想Beat Gleevec是不可能的了，但要下架
也不会。
Mostly like case is that they will reuse the testing kit from MolecularMD to
confirm T315I before use.
The good news is the the kit was there and easy to relaunch/activate it. It
is a much easier case than Tysabri because the diagnostic kit is available.
Also it is a lot easier to deal with thrombosis (Asparin maybe?) than lethal
virus that has no cure. Also people with T315I are dying and it is an acute
case, while MS was a chronic case. My be... 阅读全帖 |
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d******5
发帖数: 4273 | 9 Biogen misses by $0.09, misses on revenue
Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB): Q1 EPS of $3.82 misses by $0.09.
Revenue of $2.55B (+19.7% Y/Y) misses by $110M.
Biogen revenues up 20%; EPS up 73%; operating earnings up 51%
Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) Q1 results ($M): Total Revenues: 2,554.9 (+20.0%);
Net Product Sales: 2,172.3 (+24.6%); Joint Business: 330.6 (+11.4%).
Key Product Sales: Tecfidera: 824.9 (+17.8%); Avonex: 692.7 (-9.0%);
Tysabri: 462.6 (+4.9%); Plegridy: 61.8; Eloctate: 53.6; Alprolix: 43.1.
Net Income:... 阅读全帖 |
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s********e
发帖数: 209 | 10 from seeking alpha.
Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) Q1 results ($M): Total Revenues: 2,726.8 (+6.7%); Net
Product Sales: 2,309.4 (+6.3%).Net Income: 970.9 (+18.0%); Non-GAAP Net
Income: 1,049.4 (+16.6%); EPS: 4.43 (+26.9%); Non-GAAP EPS: 4.79 (+25.4%).
Key Product Sales: Tecfidera: 945.9 (+7.1%); Total Interferon (Avonex +
Plegridy): 670.4 (-11.1%); Tysabri: 477.0 (+3.1%); Eloctate: 107.7 (+100.9%).
我觉得是相当不错的earning.
Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB): Q1 EPS of $4.79 beats by $0.32.Revenue of $2.73B (+7.1
% Y/Y) misses... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 11 History can always be your guide and VRX story is awefully like ELN story 15
years ago.
When ELN dropped from $67 to $1, most of the people got burned along the way
catching the falling knife. Just when the sentiment could not be worse and
bankruptcy rumors were circling around, three things changed the event.
When CEO changed, the stock did not bounce, as a matter of fact it kept
dropping even though people acknowledged that it was a positive event.They
needed a portfolio manager, not a seasone... 阅读全帖 |
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a**e
发帖数: 5094 | 12 avonex/betaseron/copaxone(intra-muscular or subcutanous)
tysabri(intra-venous)
Gilenya(oral)
没有保险的话，一年的治疗费用要200k到300k USD
betaseron在国内肯定有，比在美国卖的可能还便宜些。如果自费在国内用不起的话，
在这边自费更贵
所以只有移民美国，加拿大一条出路，不然就算了，一般人家是用不起的 |
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h******e
发帖数: 1791 | 13 举个例子吧，tysabri是个单抗药物，在人体内的半衰期是11 ± 4 days。 |
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L******r
发帖数: 522 | 14 Elan是我们公司的客户之一。他们的问题主要是两个，首先是bapineuzumab的二期临床
结果不理想，让大家对基于amyloid机理的药物信心严重不足，风向已经转到tau去了。
个人感觉在当前大形势下，除非三期效果很好（可能性很小），否这这个药很难批。这
个坏消息让Elan的股票从29号的33。75跌倒30号的19。63。
第二个问题是新的关于Tysabri（natalizumab)的坏消息。在2004-2005的时候，因为这
个药的副作用，Elan几乎破产，只是后来检查了所以活着的用过的病人，没发现新的
progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy （PML)病例，Elan才活过来。祸不单
行，现在又发现了两例，Elan股票31号从20跌倒了10。几天时间，损失了60%多。
所以想抄底的要小心了，Alzheimer's的机理现在谁都不确定，做那种药是高风险的干
活，目前看来，Elan成功可能性很低。
一直对Elan印象不错，他们的nanocrystal技术是真正实用化的nano技术，比那些瞎胡
吹的强多了。他们其他一些formulation |
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h*****t
发帖数: 1226 | 15 赌神决定豪赌Tysabri了。
大家跟进。。。
expecting |
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m*********3
发帖数: 1425 | 16 http://www.wsj.com/articles/biogen-slashes-outlook-on-tecfidera
Shares in drug maker Biogen Inc. fell 22% on Friday, lopping about $20
billion off its market value after it disclosed a sharp slowdown in sales
growth for its flagship multiple-sclerosis pill and slashed its earnings
outlook.
It was the stock’s biggest one-day percentage drop since 2008, and its
largest decline in absolute dollars, according to FactSet.
Biogen expects 2015 revenue growth of between 6% and 8% in 2015, roughly
half t... 阅读全帖 |
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