S*********6
发帖数: 281 | 1 There are two stocks I want to focus on today, and each has a different
public perception. The first is Twitter (NASDAQ:TWTR), and the second is
BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY). Right now, these stocks are almost at opposite
ends of the spectrum when it comes to investor sentiment. Twitter could not
be loved more than it is right now, but BlackBerry has almost been shunned
like it was wearing a scarlet letter.
Since December 2, Twitter has flown. The stock moved from the mid $40s to
over $70 in less th... 阅读全帖 |
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i******r
发帖数: 1175 | 2 Only thing for sure is the pricing of AMZN is at its extreme in order to
maintain AMZN's sales, therefore AMZN will never be able to increase its
online profit margin to even low-end retailer WMT. AMZN is at its end of
increase spending shares of the average people.
AMZN online retail revenue is 60-70B dollar per year -- which almost 300-400
per person per year in U.S. (household of 4 spends 1-2K on AMZN already. I
think it is almost the top of the range an online store can achieve, and
will not... 阅读全帖 |
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x****h
发帖数: 298 | 3 rival, do you care about Tcehy valuation? The only hyper growth if wechat,
and seems it is even valuated higher than whatsapp? |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 5 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
by Chris Hussey
Published March 24, 2014
Stocks in Asia were decidedly higher Monday as evidence that China policy
makers are shifting to a pro-growth mode again mounts in the wake of
continuing disappointing data. Over the weekend, the HSBC PMI survey was
released and indicated another step down in business confidence with the
dispersion index dipping to 48.1 from 48.5 in February. Yu Song highlights
in a brief note Friday, "Ch... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 6
你是卖在地板上了。
市场上有太多钱了，不会来熊市的。
但钱 is rotating from high valuation stocks to low valuation stocks. |
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l****e
发帖数: 2315 | 7 2014 crash will be worse than 1987's: Marc Faber
Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex 4 Hours Ago
Marc Faber says the stock market is setting up for a decline more painful
than the sudden crash of 1987.
"I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-
type of crash," Faber said with a devious chuckle on Thursday's episode of "
Futures Now." "And I suspect it will be even worse."
Read More › Miller: It's all going up
Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & ... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********2
发帖数: 52 | 8 FB的EARNING非常好，人家是货真价实的挣钱，看FINANCIAL REPORT，人家每年的收入
很牛。GROWTH很快（７２％），这样的股票有个８０多的PE RATIO应该没啥问题吧。
HIGH PE RATIO的股票大多是高成长型的股票。相比起来FB比起NFLX （GROWTH 大概才
２０％＋， 但PE RATIO １８０）， LNKD（GROWTH 大概５０％，PE RATIO ８００）
等等VALUATION要FAIR多了。我觉得它的VALUATION和GOOGLE差不多FAIR －－ 它的
GROWTH大概是GOOGLE的三倍多，PE RATIO大概８０多，感觉很FAIR。新上市的公司里，
哪个有FB这么好的业绩的？？？ |
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i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | 9 valuation too high?
it has 25m active users, but ask for 14.7B valuation |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 10 C has lowest valuation among mega banks
I prefer C than BAC because two main reasons.
1. Lower valuation.
C book value is $65, tangible book value is $55. Every year
it can make $5-6/share. So the TB book value will go up $5-6/year.
Of course this year it probably only add around $2/share due to
the $7B mortgage settlement.
BAC relatively book value is $20, tangible book value is $14.
current price is already higher than book value. Plus it will
have at least ... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 11 Hedge funds see their returns halving in 2014
Jenny Cosgrave | @jenny_cosgrave
Monday, 21 Jul 2014 | 8:49 AM ETCNBC.com
Hedge fund managers are expecting to deliver less than half of the returns
for their investors in 2014 that they saw last year, as fears of a
correction in stock markets mount, amid record high equity valuations.
Almost half of the 150 hedge fund managers questioned by data provider
Preqin, with a total of $380 billion of assets under management, said they
expected to delive... 阅读全帖 |
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N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 12 https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/case-for-stocks-now?
ccsource=email_weekly
An improving economy and strong profits could keep stocks climbing, despite
higher prices.
Fidelity Viewpoints
– 08/27/2014
In 2014, stock markets have continued the run that started in 2009, with the
S&P 500 Index® notching dozens of all-time highs and breaking through
the 2,000 level for the first time as the economy has shown signs of
strength and corporate profits have continued to creep higher... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 125 | 13
Alibaba IPO Gives Insiders Rare Chance to Sell Early
Many Shares Aren't Bound by 'Lockup' Arrangement
A swath of early investors in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA +35.21% will
be able to sell more than $8 billion worth of shares on the day the Chinese
e-commerce company goes public, an unusual arrangement that is influencing
how bankers price the offering.
Enlarge Image
Alibaba plans to price its shares at $66-$68, which at the midpoint would
give it a valuation of about $165 billion. AFP/Get... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 14 November 3, 2014, 7:06 A.M. ET
Is Xiaomi Worth $40 Billion?
By Shuli Ren
Forbes reported that privately-held Xiaomi, which IDC now ranks as the world
’s third largest smartphone manufacturer, a result Lenovo Group (0992.HK)
contests, is exploring further funding that could value the company at over
$40 billion. If Xiaomi was able to obtain that valuation, it would be the
world’s most valuable private technology company. Last August, the last
time Xiaomi raised funding, it was valued at $10 billi... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 15
都很好，C 更 under value 一些。 所以 涨起来的话 percentage
会更多的。 C 毕竟现在还 低于 tangible book value, which is
$57.x. BAC tangible book value is $14.x.
明年 C 的 return capital plan 应该会被 approve. 它的
div 和 share buy back 至少应该跟 BAC相当。 所以它的
valuation 也会慢慢接近 BAC.
当然一个重要原因它的 valuation 低是因为它有 international
business(40% 多）。 碰到像 Russia 这样，就会有些麻烦。
一般这种银行会有 hedge,所以损失也会有限。 CNBC 采访的
几个银行分析师都认为 C 已有 hedge. 所以 C 又慢慢涨回来
了。
现在还有一个 risk 是油价的暴跌，如果油价呆在 $60 以下半年，
有可能会引起石油公司贷款的坏账，虽然银行的贷款一般是
最 high priority to get money back, 但多少也会
有些影响吧... 阅读全帖 |
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n****8
发帖数: 294 | 16 Have made half of the mistakes.
http://prudentvalueinvestor.blogspot.com/2015/01/risk-managemen
IPO of new biotech company without approved product and little money on
balance sheet, but with optimistic valuation.
Any overvalued IPO of the company that is loss making and without any
clear path to profitability in the near future, even if the company offers a
product that looks promising.
Bets on turnaround of oversold company in declining industry (e.g. coal
industry now days) with ... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 17 你真的能大部分时间都基本cover short在low上，add short 非常接近peak，买你推荐
的股基本在bottom上？开玩笑吧？pro trader很多时候都做不到。真的看不下去了。自
我感觉太好。对不起，我从来不这么质疑别人的。其他的关于你怎么看deal valuation
，中概的stock valuation什么的就不多说了。基本上真正了解这些东西的人看了你的
评论都笑而
不语。 |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 18 stock market valuation too high，讲的就是以巴巴为首的高P／E公司。
你们要领会美联储的精神，买入低P／E的苹果。
Important:
大家要注意老太的用词，是valuation too high，不是market too high；未来的股市
要靠低P/E的公司抬盘。 |
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w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 19 now pure online biz valuation shrinking, offline biz valuation better
everyday. ntes offline footprint is not that obvious. |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 20 Here's what Wall Street is predicting for stock market in 2016
Akin Oyedele
Nov. 28, 2015, 6:00 AM 173,206 8
Most of the big stock-market forecasts for 2016 are in.
Wall Street steadily lowered its expectations for the market as 2015
unfolded.
On Thursday December 24, the S&P 500 closed near 2,061. Last December, the
median year-end target for 2015 among the top strategists was higher at 2,
213 according to Bloomberg.
Based on the forecasts we've received so far, many of the most bull... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********l
发帖数: 926 | 21 说穿了就是用来骗散户的.
Here's the secret to how Silicon Valley calculates the value of its hottest
companies: The numbers are sort of made-up. For the most mature startups,
investors agree to grant higher valuations, which help the companies with
recruitment and building credibility, in exchange for guarantees that they'
ll get their money back first if the company goes public or sells. They can
also negotiate to receive additional free shares if a subsequent round's
valuation is less favorable. Interview... 阅读全帖 |
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z**m
发帖数: 3080 | 22 Internal Xiaomi documents reveal that the company's internet service
division saw a 150 percent increase in revenue from last year. However, that
increase only brought home $563 million in revenue, little more than half
of the $1 billion target. Xiaomi sold 70 million phones in 2015, Forbes
reported.
Xiaomi proved itself to be a Pacific powerhouse last year in its second
round of funding, when it raised $1.1 billion on a $45 billion valuation.
That $45 billion represents more than a 1,000 percen... 阅读全帖 |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 23 这个自然，其实一个比较专业的都比业余版友强，比如这个
Bear Hunt FOMO Melt-Up
By Kevin Cook
March 11, 2016 2:40 PM
have a confession: I have been a stock market bear this year. “But I had a
great reason,” you can hear me say.
My reason was the Earnings Recession. In the video that accompanies this
article, I show the update on forward estimates that shows negative 9.4% “
growth” for the first quarter and minus 4% for Q2. Even when you strip out
Energy sector data, negative 4.5% earnings “growth” is the result for Q1.
I hav... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 24 I have CFA but investing is where you don't need credentials to succeed. We
will let the reports speak for ourselves.
Our reports don't include valuations though as valuations would have
opinions embedded in the projections. |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 25 Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes May Have Lost $4.5 Billion, But Gets No
Tax Deduction
It is hard not to be captivated by the numbers, now that Forbes revised its
estimated net worth for Elizabeth Holmes from $4.5B down to zero. In 2015,
Elizabeth Holmes topped the FORBES list of America’s Richest Self-Made
Women. Her astonishing $4.5 billion net worth was an estimate, though, one
that Forbes said was based entirely on her 50% stake in Theranos. Her blood-
testing company was a skyrocketing dar... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******g
发帖数: 843 | 26 Relatively low fuel costs, high load factors and tourism tailwinds have
handed Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) some solid gains.
Yet both airlines have seen their shares fall this year. Southwest is down 7
.1% year to date, while Delta has fallen 25%.
This is presenting investors with excellent opportunities to grab shares in
these "battleship" airline stocks at bargain-basement prices.
1. Delta Air Lines
After nearly nine decades, Delta is the oldest airline still operating i... 阅读全帖 |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 27 80年代初，Volker为了控制通胀,疯狂加息，直接导致了一个很快的double dip
recession。不过通胀被控制后，74年后滞涨的经济很快复苏。82年大底时大市PE只有7
-8x，而且profit margin很低，interest rate 14%+。接下来6年earning grew at
double digit, rates were cut by half，simple math would dictate 20%+ equity
returns. interestingly, up until '87 crash, 30 year treasury almost had the
same total return as equity. 还有一个因素是70年代底Mike Milken开创的junk
bond market，创造了LBO这个机器，从侧面激励管理层cut costs/improve margin。90
年代初一个短暂的recession后，就是科技股领导了接下来一个大牛市，某种程度来说
96年后的都是超涨，最后全还回来了。
over the long ... 阅读全帖 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 28 Snapchat要IPO了，这在unicorn界是个大事。在这几年各种神吹valuation把Airbnb，
Snapchat, Uber这几个公司的valuation推到25B以上(uber的神valuation60多B）之后
，终于有一个前来试水的了。
这说明unicorn界生存不妙：SNAP已经不能在私募界捞到足够的钱让他们继续烧下去了
。看看SNAP的财报，收入400million，支出900 million。其中光在google托管服务器
就花了300 million。这个财报还远远称不上sustainable。
我是非常不看好Snapchat的IPO，我悲观的认为，SNAP的IPO将代表unicorn泡沫的破灭
，从而导致硅谷风投的一个大寒冬（虽然现在已经是小寒冬了）。顺便把Nasdaq也带下
去一些（当然不会像01那样，因为FANG的基本面还是很好的）。
按照以前对NVDA的分析，这件事对NVDA也是个大利空。打算在SNAP上市交易的时间附近
，140-150之间把NVDA暂时出掉一些避险了。 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 29 Snapchat要IPO了，这在unicorn界是个大事。在这几年各种神吹valuation把Airbnb，
Snapchat, Uber这几个公司的valuation推到25B以上(uber的神valuation60多B）之后
，终于有一个前来试水的了。
这说明unicorn界生存不妙：SNAP已经不能在私募界捞到足够的钱让他们继续烧下去了
。看看SNAP的财报，收入400million，支出900 million。其中光在google托管服务器
就花了300 million。这个财报还远远称不上sustainable。
我是非常不看好Snapchat的IPO，我悲观的认为，SNAP的IPO将代表unicorn泡沫的破灭
，从而导致硅谷风投的一个大寒冬（虽然现在已经是小寒冬了）。顺便把Nasdaq也带下
去一些（当然不会像01那样，因为FANG的基本面还是很好的）。
按照以前对NVDA的分析，这件事对NVDA也是个大利空。打算在SNAP上市交易的时间附近
，140-150之间把NVDA暂时出掉一些避险了。 |
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T**m
发帖数: 142 | 30 谢谢分享!
我的看法是：
1) Gaming Segment is a dominant growing business ---> 30B valuation.
2) Datacenter+Auto+Visualization currently valued at ---> 60B-30B=30B.
The valuation of the 2) is certainly high. But, if they could be a long-term
player in any of the three categories, I think at present it is at least
near fair value.
NVDA is likely to consolidate near term, but I don't believe we will reverse
to the downtrend from here. |
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发帖数: 1 | 34
BAC and JPM had more percentage gain in the last 6-7 months,
just reached their full valuation. It will be difficult to break up
their 52 weeks high.
C will keep breaking up 52 weeks high until reaches the similar level
valuation. It is very possible that C goes above $65 when CCAR is
released by Fed next month. |
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w****o
发帖数: 2260 | 35 原文及link在下面。
2000年的时候，思科市值465B，JUNIPER 80B, 思科和JUNIPER红的发紫，有预测CISCO
能很快成为第一个1万亿的公司，那个势头在当时看真的就是板上钉钉。世事难料，今
天思科今天167B，JUNIPER 10B。
这篇文章分析，思科比MSFT， INTEL好多啦。呵呵。
再过十年后看看苹果那时能值多少钱。
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2000/03/20/story2.html
One trillion dollars.
That's how much at least one analyst believes Cisco Systems Inc. will be
worth in a few years--and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree.
The San Jose-based networking behemoth's stock closed March 14 at $131.75 a
share, sli... 阅读全帖 |
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f********s
发帖数: 658 | 36 有人是不是死在M手上很多次了？一提到M苦大仇深的样子。再好的股票，valuation过
高，也不好；再不济的股票，valuation合适的时候，也是好股票。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 37 18 stocks to consider for 2018
All of the names are seen rising 25% or more, according to analysts.
1. Range Resources (RRC)
Price on Dec. 15: $15.63
Target price: $28.98
Percent change: +85.4%
Independent natural gas and oil company is one of the most active drillers
in Pennsylvania, including Marcellus Shale.
2. Incyte (INCY)
Price on Dec. 15: $96.41
Target price: $145.76
Percent change: +51.2%
Biotech firm engages in discovery, development and sale of drugs, including
profit... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 38 转载
Summary
Netflix is absurdly overvalued.
Even using very optimistic assumptions for growth and margins, NFLX may
still be 30-50% overpriced.
NFLX's rising content costs per subscriber will likely continue to
hamper free cash flows for the foreseeable future.
Based on more realistic assumptions, NFLX could be 60-80% overpriced.
Valuation doesn't matter; until it does. The path to being a great
investor is to ignore the short term and focus on long-term risk and reward.
The markets don't always ... 阅读全帖 |
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w****o
发帖数: 2260 | 39 咋说都行。分析师就是胡说八道
https://www.barrons.com/articles/after-the-bell-dow-s-p-500-slide-because-
more-good-news-may-sound-bad-1535665935
After the Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Slide Because ‘More Good News’ May Sound Bad
ByEvie Liu Updated Aug. 30, 2018 9:06 p.m. ET
After the Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Slide Because ‘More Good News’ May Sound Bad
ILLUSTRATION: SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES
Taking a break? After a week of rallying, all three major stock indexes
closed with losses Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average t... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******r
发帖数: 870 | 40 这个值得好好看看！
https://citronresearch.com/citron-reverses-opinion-on-tesla/
Why be Long?
This is a critical quarter for Tesla and there are many reasons we want to
be long (and would certainly not want to be short) into this print:
• Tesla will, finally, after 10 years of unprofitable existence, have
the ability to prove that it can be a sustainable, highly cash flow
generative entity that is no longer reliant on the capital markets.
• A strong quarter removes the overhang of a necessary ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*p
发帖数: 1331 | 41 我有一笔Startup ISO 今年可以early exercise 。
现在strike price是$1/share, 公司今年409a valuation 出来了是$3/share.
我今年需要交差额 $2/ share 作为我的taxable AMT income，这个我理解了。
问题：
明年如果公司valuation 如果是$10/share, 而且我明年打算hold，我明年需要再交 ($
10 - $3)的差额吗？这个tax究竟是在存在买卖交易当年才交，还是每年都要交？
谢谢 |
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n**********y
发帖数: 26 | 42 Please send your resume to carl.wu at bankofamerica.com if interested.
Please note this is a development position on trading floor and strong
programing background is required. We do consider sponsorship for
outstanding candidates.
Company
Bank of America, Home Loan & Insurance Division
Calabasas, California
Job Description
Perform quantitative analysis to support MBS/ABS pricing and trading
activities. Responsibilities include implementation (coding) of high
performance best execution/pricing s... 阅读全帖 |
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b****b
发帖数: 665 | 43 今天买了一个房子，发现本来有4个bath, 但是 city assessment 只有2个
，就跑到town 里去查 permit, 发现4个bath 算是有plumbing permit, OK. 然后就傻
乎乎地跑到 Assessor office, 问可不可以将 assessment data 改成4个bath, staff
说可以，但是要涨 value, 每个 bath 1.5-2 万，我想了想还是要改。后来被告知房子
明年会基本按照买价的 95% 算 assessment value, 那么 assessment value会从 51万
涨到65万左右。 我心里一惊，吓坏了，这哪了得。 算下来 12.77X 65 万 /1000 = $
8300/年， 比以前多了1800/年. 每个月多了 $150.
我就随便查了一下 Lexington的一个房子的税， 那个房子比这个小一半， assessment
57万，但是要交 15.2X57万/1000 = $8900 的税。而且这个房子是烧油的，冬天据说
是每个月600-800 的油取暖的费用。
赶脚 property tax ra... 阅读全帖 |
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c********a
发帖数: 767 | 44 多谢，请问你的claim也是关于diminish value的claim吗？还是关于车祸谁的
liability的问题。All State把其他所有的费用都付了，从租车到修车费，现在唯一的
就是这个loss value多少的问题
不同的claim，所花的时间和精力不太一样。我就是觉的要化好多时间，不知道你的这
个case是什么情况，能否share一下？
我的这个挺简单的，第二份appraisal report特别好，直接quote dealer做的
valuation，所以好像没有什么可以argue的，除非all state 也拿出一个3rd party的
valuation report可以有那么strong的quotes
你的case出庭需要几次，每次是不是就半天没有了，有时候对方不到，还有重新
reschedule，我真想把我loss的working hour也claim进去，可不可以，double都不止
（如果我花那么多时间在工作上，这些钱早就出来了）呵呵 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 45
------------------
很专业.
现在任何问题并不简单. 以此为例. 我了解到:
Valuation: Determining the value of property is a critical aspect of
property taxation, as such value determines the amount of tax due. Various
techniques may be used to determine value. Except in the case of property
recently sold, valuation has some inherently subjective aspects.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_tax_in_the_United_States#
------------------
方舟子是公众人物，每个人都可以批评他.
他不知道的问题，简单地说一下, 误导公众.
这不是公众人物应有de做为.
方：【美国并不是所有的州的不动产税每年都重新做评估的，... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********l
发帖数: 164 | 46 是国内某大公司在美国分公司招聘的，一个是director of human resources，一个是
director of investment。
Director- LA
Requirements:
1. Bachelor’s degree in Human Resources, Business or equivalent
preferred.
2. 15+ years of HR experience with 5+ years in an HR director role
required.
3. Professional certification such as PHR, SPHR, SHRM-CP, or SHRM-SCP or
other HR Certificate program is highly preferred.
4. Excellent English and Chinese written and verbal communication skills.
Responsibilities
1. Recruiting em... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********o
发帖数: 5993 | 47 base and bonus?
“Financial Engineer for Derivatives Valuation Services”
The successful candidate will join our Bloomberg Core OTC Derivatives/
Structured Notes Product Group, and be part of a team responsible to provide
a derivatives valuation service for Bloomberg customers. |
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F******e
发帖数: 3967 | 48 我想请教你.
在NY STATE,结婚其间取得的学位属于婚内财产.那么假设老公在结婚其间读了个MBA,然
后要离婚了.这个MBA的VALUATION怎么做?是根据FAIR MARKET VALUE吗?
我最近要开个公司,觉得这个VALUATION很有前途呢. |
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F******e
发帖数: 3967 | 49 归和我在美国做VALUATION不矛盾.
我只是好奇所以请教你,你认识离婚律师吗?认识的话帮我打听打听.
我认识的律师要么是杀人放火抢劫强奸,要么是专利版权反垄断.
如果离婚律师专门OUTSOURCE这活给VALUATION 的公司做,很不错的生意啊. |
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O*******e
发帖数: 1024 | 50 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
roger503 (roger503) 于 (Wed Aug 31 02:02:49 2011, 美东) 提到:
看到大家的发言， 有一个问题想提醒一下的就是： 大家发言的时候一定要注意不要有
诽谤谩骂之类的言辞出现。诽谤谩骂既失去了讨论的意义，无形中贬低了自己，也有可
能构成了法律意义上的defamation.
在Oregon, “A defamatory communication is one which would subject a person
to hatred, contempt or ridicule, or tend to diminish the esteem, respect,
goodwill or confidence in which one is held or to excite adverse, derogatory
, or unpleasant feelings or opinions against one.” 在中国，损害结果一般是构
成诽谤的必须要件之... 阅读全帖 |
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