b******b
发帖数: 713 | 1 新季度亏损 is because of huge writedown on the music genre assets. This kind
of writedown usually called "house cleaning" writedown, basically get rid
of all the bad assets on the book altogether. The stock price is going up
after the writedown also shows analytic thinks this way too.
year
2009, |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 2 A Greek bond writedown of 50 percent on half of the Greek debt is pretty
much assured, sources close to the situation told CNBC on Wednesday.
However, Slovakia's Prime Minister Iveta Radicova said Wednesday afternoon
that private investors should accept a haircut of more than 50 percent on
their holdings of Greek debt.
"Slovakia is saying that the haircut has to be more than 50 percent," she
told reporters before leaving for an EU summit in Brussels, Reuters reported.
Negotiators remain divided ... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 4 STOCKS EXPLODE HIGHER AND EVERYONE THINKS EUROPE IS FIXED AGAIN: Here's What
You Need To Know
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-27-2011-10#ixzz1c18ofItz
First, the scoreboard:
Dow: +339.4 pts, +2.9%
S&P 500: +42.6 pts, +3.4%
NASDAQ: +88.0 pts, +3.3%
And now, the top stories:
In case you missed it, here's a rundown of yesterday's EU summit because it
's important. Leaders have agreed to 50% writedowns on Greek debt held by
private bond holders, a leveraged EFSF that would ha... 阅读全帖 |
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k****i
发帖数: 1504 | 5 AIG不是真的救，其实政府是让他们慢慢死掉，因为要还政府那么高利息的债，他们就
必须把各个部门分开拆了卖。除非经济马上有起色，现在看来不太可能。他们本身有些部门还是挺值钱的，但是如果政府不管，他们必定贱卖，那么对市场冲击比较大。
有人跟我分析说明年6。7月份应该是到底了，因为该 writedown的都已经writedown了
。希望如此吧。 |
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r**u
发帖数: 69 | 6
citi took 70$bn worth of siv back on its balance sheet. i suspect much of it
subprime cdo. so 18$bn writedown is not that bad (i.e. their might be more!)
得承
by default, you mean cdo default to its creditor or underlying asset default?
if you priced the cdo and it's not sold, it stays on your (siv's) balance
sheet. so a lot of writedown are unsold cdos. banks might retain higher
rated tranches as well as the yields were unattractive to buyers and they
thought it's secure to hold those.
have a ni |
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b*****l
发帖数: 1594 | 7 08上台了。潘多拉的盒子打开了。接下来会是什么呢？
最先发生的恐怕是电视采访中那些普通黑人支持者（白人肯定也不少）号称的：我在不
用担心贷款，信用卡欠账，汽油费blah,blah。不知道会不会让萧条的零售业出现一波
反弹？本来已经欠了无数债，underwater的铁杆O饭们是不是会再次放开手脚的花销？
米国的信用卡危机现在在政府和银行双方配合下掩饰的还不错。至少除了个别的新闻又
提到，基本没有人注意。那可是1万亿以上的欠账，而且一旦损失，血本无归。不像房
贷，还有房子作抵押，操作好了还能赚一笔。1万亿的CC欠账，以前可以用equity还，
现在不可能了。基本上能有一半不default都算是好的。好像有数据说这些欠账大部分
集中在极少数人手里。也就是这些人基本不可能还的起钱。就算只有3000亿坏账，恐怕
和上万亿的房贷default相比，还要严重。毕竟房子平均赔三分之一得还不多。要知道
，到现在为止所有被foreclose的房子总值都未必有这个数。
前阵子政府已经丢进去好几千亿了。为什么资本市场流动性还是没有多少起色？按说各
大银行已经writedown不少坏账了。各自分了上百亿，怎么也 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 8 May 23, 2012 | Posted by Michael Laprarie
Two weeks ago, JP Morgan Chase announced a $2 billion writedown of its
investment balance sheets due to risky derivatives trades gone wrong.
And last Friday, the most eagerly anticipated tech IPO in a decade, Facebook
, failed to thrive and closed just under its opening price of $38 a share.
Technical glitches on its opening day resulted in a “locked market” for
many investors as their buy and sell orders could not be executed. The
following Monday (M... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 作者:Edward Harrison 翻译:盛薇
2012-05-25 18:49:01
即使欧元区尚没有为成员国建立起一个正式的退出机制，即使大部分的欧洲选民都宁愿
保持欧元区的完整性，关于希腊退出欧元区的说法，依然会不绝于耳。其实，那些想让
希腊退出欧元区的人，自有他们的道理，因为对希腊来说，其经济和政治现状都很难长
久维系。本周五，针对希腊单方面退出欧元区可能性，我曾经发表了三张帖子，它们分
别是：《希腊单方面退出欧元区的情节展望》（Running through unilateral Greek
exit scenarios）、《希腊退出欧元区的方法和原因》（How and why Greece will
leave the euro zone）以及《希腊违约以及退出欧元区的政治经济学问题》（The
political economy of a Greek default (and euro zone exit)）。现在，我还想再
补充几个要点。
如预料中一样，解决希腊问题的政治经济环境正在恶化。无论是希腊国内，还是欧元区
内，对于通过债务削减或紧急救助来帮助希腊逃过一劫... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********1
发帖数: 31 | 10 看来偶对欧洲的估计不足，mortgage related writedown结束了，现在是emerging
market的default 了。
Europe's Growing Crisis Puts the Fed at Risk
By JACK WILLOUGHBY
European central banks are at risk of defaulting on their currency swaps
with the U.S. Federal Reserve, unless major banks on the Continent can find
some way to stabilize their deteriorating balance sheets.
TO AID THEIR AILING COMMERCIAL banks, central banks in Europe have relied on
huge currency swaps, borrowing nearly $400 billion from the U.S. Federal
Reserve |
|
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 12 They ain't enough people like you in states. That's why it's
a bubble. They are counting unpayable future debt as current assets,
that's why they'll have more writedown than profit for a long
period if M2M is not modified.
Just to make it worse, people like you will be even fewer if unemployment
rate keeps climbing. |
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o***e
发帖数: 164 | 13 要有耐心.
就想狗剩等大银行,去年底还一个赛一个地writedown,
现在房地产价格也没有上涨(跟去年比下跌超过10%),
失业率也不断上涨,经济没有好转,却个个开始大幅赢利. |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 14 发信人: lclclclc (home), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: Re: 老中又惨了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 9 00:07:10 2010, 美东)
Program Will Pay Homeowners to Sell at a Loss
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35762827
Mortgage Principal Writedown Won't Save Housing
Housinghttp://www.cnbc.com/id/35768105 |
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N**D
发帖数: 2885 | 15 你的观察都是对的，只是没有得到恰当的结论。
如果没有通胀的情况下，高利率将直接导致低房价，这个相信不用我多说。从购买力上
来讲，利率胀一倍，房子价格得大致迭30-40%才能持平。到目前房子价格已经降低了20
-30%，美国政府已经花了多少钱,银行已经writedown多少资产。。再降30-40%，后果不
堪设想。这也是为什么政府一定要救护2房。这点没有争议的。相反，多印钞票，扩大
投资,刺激消费，正是政府想要作的事情。通胀后房子贬值不贬价，大家皆大欢喜。 加
上美元贬值，出口增加，更是锦上添花。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 16 (ZZ from Telegraph)
Lisa Hintz of Moody's said: "Make no mistake, a Greek default is another
potential credit crisis in the making... it is not just the writedown of
Greek debt; it is the mark-to-market of other sovereign debt.
"That would bankrupt the bulk of the European banking system, which is why
it is unlikely to be allowed to happen."
European finance ministers, including Alistair Darling, meet for a summit
today and are expected to provide further details of a possible support
package fo |
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 17 注意此贴日期
Re: 前两天MUMMY讲次贷的影响快结束了 datoumei 2008-09-02
MITBBS -- Re: 前两天MUMMY讲次贷的影响快结束了
我告诉你个内部数据，Bank的Card，Prime今年都已经开始赚钱了
失业率不到一定规模，Prime不存在大幅writedown的可能 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 18 Turkey FA
有一批网站，卖广告 Ads， 卖服务(subscription)
值钱一点的网站有： match.com, servicemaster, gifts.com, ask.com
垃圾有： shoebuy.com
分柝过： expedia, hotels 分出去上市了
股权： 普通股有A 和B 之分， 每股B 有5份投票权
所以owner 有57% voting control of the company
如果不是因为这样，公司一定会是收购的target
手上现金，每股$14.00, 买入股价；$27.43
在欧洲的meetic 上市公司(也是搞mating的) 有20% minority interest, 这个算一下
， 每股应值$1.00
和meetic 在拉丁有venture
2010年2月和yahoo 建立合作，成为match provider
低负债， 基本无长期负债
现金都用来进行股票回购，treasure stock 较多
弱： intangible 较多，>$1B，09年有很大的writedown, 从$2B to $1B
business 本身，m... 阅读全帖 |
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B*****t
发帖数: 68 | 19 According to the Wall St. Journal:
European finance ministers agreed to water down a German-backed
proposal to force private bond holders to take writedowns in the event
of future bailouts. The plan, which will create a new fund to replace
in 2013 the EUR440 billion bailout fund put in place in May, would
still require countries found to be insolvent to negotiate a
restructuring with private-sector creditors.
"The Irish thing is so important and I think that they may have put
more uncertainty in... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 20 这是真的吗？
4/Q/10 earnings blowout 23 minutes ago
Revenue ............................€ 12,200
Operating Expenses
Cost Of Goods Sold..............€ 8,400
Depreciation..........................
Research And Development...€ 1,450
Sales,General & Admin.........€ 1,300
Special Operating Charges.....
Operating Income...............€ 1,050
Gains On Investments........... 3
Gains On Asset Sales..........€ 75
Net Interest & Other Income..€ 75
Income Before Ta... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 21 不叫default, 叫roll-over.
还70%。
70%>60%=>利好。哈哈
S&P还是要downgrade.
就算70%，持有人得writedown吧。不处罚CDS？对持有人有嘛好处？
后面PIIGS都要嚷嚷haircut, rollover. |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 22 MTLQQ has been cancelled by general motor. So the stock price is 0. The
shareholders of old GM was wiped out during bankruptcy. There is ZERO value
in your holding and you do not have to do anything except a tax writedown
of $40,000. |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 23 发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: 法德领导人就债务危机举行会谈
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 9 11:27:16 2011, 美东)
法国银行业问题很大。
帐户对冲很重要。
///
星期天（10月9日），德国总理默克尔在柏林与法国总统萨尔科齐就欧洲债务危机举行
会谈。
周末的会谈旨在讨论如果希腊拖欠债务，如何支持最受影响的银行系统，如何防止危机
蔓延。
///
Merkel, Sarkozy Meet as Crisis Threatens Banks
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met in
Berlin to discuss ways to staunch the European debt crisis threatening to
engulf the region’s banks.
Merkel and Sarkozy may be nearing a compromise on a poss... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 24 德国占了上风。 没想到周末是这个结果。
看来mm真的是只打算挺过OE.
不知道周一下午还会不会继续hype德法meeting?
Euro chief: agreed on sizable cut to Greek debt
BRUSSELS (AP) -- The chairman of the Eurogroup says eurozone finance
ministers have agreed that banks need to take substantial losses on their
Greek bondholdings.
Jean-Claude Juncker said Saturday that "yesterday we agreed that we need a
substantial increase in the contribution from the banks."
Juncker, who is also the prime minister of Luxembourg, did not say how big
the cuts would ha... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 25 看来这个戏还要演很长一段时间。
Reuters) - Germany and France told Greece on Wednesday it should make up its
mind by mid-December whether it wants to stay in the euro zone when Greeks
vote on a 130-billion-euro ($178 billion) bailout.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel summoned George
Papandreou for crisis talks in Cannes, before a G20 summit of major world
economies, to push for rapid implementation of measures to tackle the euro
zone debt crisis, which Athens has thrown into doubt.
S... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 26 Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading with the Hang Seng falling 2.
49%. Europe is recovering on talks that Greece may avoid a referendum and U.
S. futures are moderately higher ahead of the market open.
Socialists in the Greek government have revolted against prime minister
George Papandreou's plan for a national referendum. This came after finance
minister Evangelos Venizelos released a statement opposing the referendum.
Papandreou called an ... 阅读全帖 |
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K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 27 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:33:50 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天拉盘exactly拉到１２点。
看来mm的主力主要是操纵欧洲市场。
１２点一过立刻放弃护盘， 难道就这样了？ 下周没有扑腾了？
有谁熟悉欧洲市场的能讲解一下吗？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:35:58 2011, 美东) 提到:
从１０月４号以后的几个rumor都是欧洲盘后开， 制造欧洲盘的gap.
今明两天不知道还会如此吗？
总觉得mm放弃的有点早。
应该是news前的一天拉到最高。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
oyxy (金钱流) 于 (Fri Oct 21 13:38:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
大MM如果那么狡猾，哪会那么按时操作啊，今天后半段也还是有可能重新拉起来的，谁
知道啊... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 28 UniCredit, Italy's largest bank and our favorite bellwether of the
deteriorating Italian economy, can't avoid trouble. In 2008, the bank's
shares crashed after investors realized it was one of the largest European
owners of subprime mortgages. When it was forced to raise capital, it didn't
turn to European governments. Instead, it raised $1 billion (offering 3.6%
of the firm) from Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi.
Then, in January 2009, the New York Times reported one of UniCredit's
largest subsidiari... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 29 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/us-greece-idUSTRE8120
BRUSSELS | Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:09pm EST
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers struck a deal early on
Tuesday for a second bailout program for Greece that includes new financing
of 130 billion euros and aims to cut Greece's debt to 121 percent of GDP by
2020, two EU officials said.
"The financial volume (of the Greek package) is 130 billion euros and debt-
to-GDP (will be) 121 percent. Now it's down to work on the statemen... 阅读全帖 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 30 Q2 EPS of $2.07 misses by $0.5. Revenue of $3.97B (-8.4% Y/Y) misses by $0.
29B. APA booked a $480M writedown on its Canada oil and gas properties.
Production rose 3.5% Y/Y and 0.7% Q/Q to ~774K boe/day, but was offset by
lower oil and gas prices. Unscheduled maintenance reduced output by ~16K boe
/day. |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 31 如果小胖大牛手上没有长仓，那还是不要碰了, 虎姐神的话：那里跌的，换个地方爬起来
RSH更像一个价值陷阱，资产表上没有真正资产的，最大的资产可能是那些电子产品库存
那些writedown会很快，原来的商业模式完蛋了，现在也一直没有找到好的商业模式，
更可能在找到好的商业模式前玩完，我是看到P/B很低，进入了我的screener,花了一晚
上看了分析了一下
被buyout可能性非常低
有两个地方要关注：
1 有没有activist fund买入？ 这样有可能私有化下市
2 short interest，有MM会用来搞搞short squeeze |
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W**r
发帖数: 1492 | 32 这垃圾要完蛋了，季度亏1B
BlackBerry Ltd poised for writedown as inventory of unsold smartphones
swells to almost $1-billion |
|
u******4
发帖数: 4281 | 33 (Reuters) - Funds run by billionaire investor John Paulson see Greece's
recapitalised banking sector as an attractive investment play on the country
's recovery after a deep six-year slump.
Encouraged by Greece's rising exports and a rebounding tourism sector, U.S.
hedge fund group Paulson & Co expects the protracted recession to bottom out
this year and begin recovery in 2014.
Paulson, whose moves are closely watched ever since he earned billions by
betting against sub-prime mortgages, said in ... 阅读全帖 |
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T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 34 就是希腊国会第三轮选举难产。
希腊时间比美国早8个小时。不知道国会投票是白天还是晚上。这个计票不花时间。
白天的话，早上开盘时就知道消息。晚上的话，要到下午收盘才能知道了。
执政党现在有168票，还差12票。现在贿赂谣言很多。一票300万欧元。想想也值，万一
左派上台，欧盟就是几千亿的可能损失了。
Samaras appeals to MPs ahead of third vote as early elections loom
In an eleventh-hour effort to bolster the government’s candidate in a
crucial presidential vote Monday that is likely to spark early general
elections, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras made an appeal to undecided
lawmakers over the weekend, saying snap polls would lead to “pointless
u... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 35 1. Relatively strong balance sheet especially its cash position after recent
asset sale to swn.
Extra bonus: flexibility to get some bargain if opportunity showed up in the
current sustained down trend environment.
2. Comparatively more balanced produce. Oil/ngl/gas vs. mostly gas
previously.
3. New and conservative management
4. Carl is still endorsing and holding the position
but, what is chk's true value? Any asset writedown coming? In what scale? |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 36 Zero Hedge Reads
The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar
Just As Storage Runs Out
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2015 17:58 -0400
Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production
trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.
This is what we said back in early March when the BTFDers were hoping WTI in
the low $40s would never again be seen:
Come June, when all available on-land ... 阅读全帖 |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 37 学习了好久，终于准备一试身手。 screen了一下，找到几个貌似便宜的股票，研究了
一下，发现其中一个非常便宜，效益稳定，和教科书上说的一样，看了最近几年的报表
，说话真实在，真替股东着想，准备看看09年的报表就下单。结果一看吓一跳， 08年
没亏多少，但一下子writedown了相当10几年收入的goodwill value, 难怪现在还这么
便宜，真他妈的黑，我要偷一点懒，就上贼船了。 |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 38 正好我研究了，我先来说说:)
一家奸商，2011年资产被重新大幅度严重高估，没见过这么大幅度的，2014年又
writedown了相当三年收入的goodwill, 所以基本上2010以后没有盈利，book value 应
该看2011年以前的值，估计6B左右，book value per share is around 30 or less.
当前价格不算太便宜，15左右收比较合理。 |
|
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f****e
发帖数: 1521 | 40 再点你以下 writedown了你也看不出来 美国这边的财报都是根据US GAAP做的 说白了
accrual method，审计规则和SEC都要求cash flow stmt用indirect method做 所以直
接看是看不出现金流的
你低个头 哥教你怎么用 cash flow stmt, balance sheet and P&L 逆推 direct cash
flows 这样报表信息会更直接透明 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 41 没听说过scf要求用indirect method做。
大多数公司采用indirect method，只不过是图个简单。
[在 foolme () 的大作中提到：]
:再点你以下 writedown了你也看不出来 美国这边的财报都是根据US GAAP做的 说白了
accrual method，审计规则和SEC都要求cash flow stmt用indirect method做 所以
直接看是看不出现金流的
:你低个头 哥教你怎么用 cash flow stmt, balance sheet and P&L 逆推 direct
cash flows 这样报表信息会更直接透明 |
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m***a
发帖数: 245 | 42 哈哈哈，我还没仔细看季报，可能是因为税率有个writedown， one-time charge of $
5.5 billion associated with the enactment of U.S. tax reform。过会儿有空再细看 |
|
g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 43 GE的报表超级复杂，没空细看，只看了个大概。
SEC调查GE的财务包括两方面：
1 保险的大窟窿
2 最近的23B writedown
1是一个大骗局，可能会有人会坐牢。这个好像是这么玩的，之前GE Capital每年给GE
交好几个B的dividend, GE的现金流很好看。2017年， John(他就是GE Capital出来的
)接手以后，很快就把GE Capital的猫腻切开晾着，大窟窿今后要20B现金去堵。他是为
了把自己的出发点降低，所以相信他的评估很保守。这说明以前的现金流是假的，完全
是做出来的，退休的CEO和CFO难逃干系。
2 不是大问题
GE的现金流
有两个窟窿。保险目前没事，以后难保不出新窟窿，而且肯本卖不掉的。今年退休金的
窟窿特别大，主要是因为yield上去了，pension plan里面的bond都跌得厉害，按理说
hold until maturity, 应该用book value记账，细节没空查，但以后应该不会总交这
么多。今年目前现金流是负的。有人说什么破产，这个基本杞人忧天，GE的leverage不
高，信用等级还是投资级别。
管理层的策略
卖，... 阅读全帖 |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 44 那个是noncash writedown. 要是现金还不破产了。今年现金流负了5个亿。
：一年二十几个B的负现金流，只看到了价值毁灭。。。等现金流稳定为+5B再说 |
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l******c
发帖数: 2555 | 45 来自主题: SanFrancisco版 - 老中又惨了 Program Will Pay Homeowners to Sell at a Loss
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35762827
Mortgage Principal Writedown Won't Save Housing
Housinghttp://www.cnbc.com/id/35768105
我的理解就是， downpayment 高的吃亏。 |
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m*******i
发帖数: 8711 | 47 You didn't read the article closely.
The accounting issue is at most 4B writedown, HP still over-payed the
company by 5B. And the real problem is that HP's every business line is
shrinking. That's the bigger problem than the accounting issue. That's why I
said HP use the Autonomy to hide the company's fundemental problem. |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 48 没戏，老中喜欢炒个股，屯个房啥的。你这个，能自动去broker下载所有股票交易，算
出schedule E吗？靠你个器人回字有几种写法是难了点，就说business loss有多少种
常见的writedowns吧 |
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