q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 1 转一篇比较有意思的文字：很长
March 10, 2015
Six Days Until Bond Market Crash Begins
By EconMatters
Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff
in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks,
hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over
fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in
front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.
FOMC Meeting & Press Conference
Jus... 阅读全帖 |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 2 You really think the FED has the manpower to keep the ZIRP going? If so,
Europe would not have had any problems now.
Sooner or later this year, ZIRP would be forced out, and it's not up to the
FED any more. |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 Fed就一个，就是维持ZIRP（Zero Interest Rate Policy)至少到2015的那一个
拔针？你的梦想吧？
俺的几个投资房，正现金流不说，平均Capital Gain都30%+ |
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h********5
发帖数: 386 | 4 美国老将也承认：China is poor and getting wealthier. The US is rich and
getting poorer.
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When the US Dollar Goes Down to the Renminbi
By Bill Bonner • January 9th, 2014
We don't know what will happen this year. Nor does anyone else.
Meanwhile, the newspapers are reporting the rise of the Chinese currency,
the renminbi. It is already the Avis of world currencies: No. 2 in terms of
trade. And it's gaining on the world's current No. 1, the US dollar.
'Era of Renminbi dawns... 阅读全帖 |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 6 中国推动美国走向金融洗牌
米卫凌（Willem Middelkoop）
英国《金融时报》
两年前中国新华社发表评论称全球“脱美国化”的时机已经到来，它呼吁建立一个不依
赖于美国的“新的全球金融体系”。对于业内人士这并不令人意外，因为中国央行自信
贷危机爆发后就一直在呼吁结束美元时代。2009年，中国央行行长周小川提出打造“一
个独立于各个国家的并能保持长期稳定的国际储备货币”。他的逻辑是通过将人民币加
入国际货币基金组织特别提款权的一篮子货币，特别提款权可以作为一个真正的超国家
货币取代美元。
这是自雷曼兄弟倒闭后中国对美国营救华尔街的反应。美国完全凭空造出了新的数万亿
美元来支持美国经济。自2000年以来，积累了一万亿美元美国国债的中国立刻感到陷入
困境。为了对冲美元风险，中国决定“在最短的时间内积累最大的黄金储备”，中国知
道一个古老的地缘政治事实： 谁拥有黄金，谁就制定规则。
到目前为止，美国一直试图推迟世界金融体系的重大变革。20国集团在2010年达成协议
，给予国际货币基金组织内的新兴经济体更多权力，但该协议一直受到美国国会的阻力
。美国人很难接受他们需要很快和中国分享权力。... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 7 No, maybe the begining of the end of ZIRP. |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 8 1. Last time, there was something "unexpected" delivered: ZIRP till mid-2013
; this time, something expected was not delivered (reduce interest rate of
bank excess reserve)
2. Major European banks fire sale to defense "bank run" (need cash!)
, |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 9 现在做空黄金的理由是什么?
QE是FED无为而治而又不能不治的产物。QE本身既没有增加货币supply也不会引起
inflation，只是把已经存在的asset从一处挪到另一处，相当于把savings account 改
成 checking account。由于普通大众对QE的误解，造成所有的资金涌向inflation
hedge的asset，黄金是popular的投资之一。现在由于欧洲的危机，这种误解只会进一
步加深。更有很多人认为QE３会来，再加上很多投资机构鼓动大家购买黄金，金价还会
往上冲。当然最终还会从哪来再会哪去。另外，FED的ZIRP直接造成malinvestment，让
很多投机机构有大量的资金炒作。这就造成经济进入recession，但很多assets却冲新
高的怪象。 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 10 Indeed, the world is different when Fed goes ZIRP and beyond. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 11 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 12 华尔街日报 2014-12-26 23:50:33
由于担心俄罗斯卢布以及其他货币的贬值会推高瑞士法郎汇率，瑞士央行采取了一项
不寻常的行动，对存款实施-0.25%的负利率。
需要明确的是，这并非贷款利率，也不是对存款支付的利息，而是对存款收取的费
用。现在把瑞士法郎存在银行账户里比放在自家床垫下还要多花0.25%的代价。
所有获得过诺贝尔奖的经济学家都说，不能把利率降至零以下。这种说法就到此为
止吧。
瑞士央行的这一举措不仅对那些把钱存在瑞士银行账户里的独裁者、黑帮和间谍来
说是个坏消息。
这一举措再次提醒人们，说到货币政策，我们正在经历历史性事件。
不久前人们还在学着习惯零利率政策(ZIRP)。
而现在又来了个负利率政策(NIRP)。
此外，许多国家还在尝试采取量化宽松和各种其他“非常规”政策，以支持经济。
2011年以来瑞士一直在抗击货币战，当时欧洲爆发的信贷危机引发资金流入瑞士法
郎，使得该国央行不得不让瑞士法郎事实上钉住欧元。简言之，这一事件表明在一个货
币竞相贬值的世界中，任何一国要想保持本国货币坚挺都将举步维艰。
今年俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值（兑美元已经下跌了大约50%）... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 14 We all know the Federal Reserve (and every other central bank) has one last
Doomsday weapon to stop a meltdown in the global financial markets: creating
trillions of dollars out of thin air and using the cash to buy assets that
are in free-fall. This is known as "the nuclear option"--the direct
monetizing of stocks, Treasury bonds, commercial real estate mortgages,
student loans, corporate bonds, non-U.S. sovereign bonds, subprime auto
loans, defaulted bat guano securities, offshore loans denomi... 阅读全帖 |
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