g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 1 I can double check my chart tonight. It was crossed on 1010
last time I examined it.
BTW, it's not fair when pick the start near the bottom
of a bear market and compare B&H strategy with other strategies.
It's almost like saying you knew that's the bottom and you somehow
avoid the bear market. MA strategy avoids the bear market (if you don't
do short) but is slow on picking up bulls market. You can't be
one-sided. If you want to pick a particular point, you have to
give it a long run. e.g. 10 yr |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 You could have claimed your method in the beginning of 2008 and
your performance would have beaten indexing. As an unbiased
"3rd party evaluation" guy, I have to start from the day you
posted. I can't evaluate it based on back testing. Everything
needs to go forward. If a method was very good historically
but not as good now, it means it's kind of a 强弩之末 method.
I believe you were still fine tuning your method even
in the beginning of 2009, because I've seen a few different
versions from you at |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 3
No, it only means it doesn't beat B&H for any given period of
time, especially a short period. We all know it won't if you
start in the bottom of a bear market and not even run a full
cycle. You can say that with full confidence when I proposed it.
You don't know when a bottom will be, however, people indeed
made a lumpsum buy in 4/1/09 did beat me, but if they did B&H
way before that, it couldn't count. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 I double check my AmiBroker, it crossed on 8/7/09 at
1010.48. EMA 13 was 935.45, EMA 34 was 929.26
the week before, EMA 13 was 922.95, EMA 34 was 924.33
I got the data from yahoo, not sure mine or yours is wrong. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 I directly used finance.yahoo.com's chart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^gspc;range=1y;indicator=ema%2891,238%29+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
It gives you daily data. After double check, I found it crossed on
09/29/2009 (1 day later than I previous thought) at 1060.61. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 6 13 weeks equals to 65 trading days instead of 91
my observation of the chart supports bug's result
your result seems to come from assuming EMA 91 days and 238 days |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 7 I don't think they are looking at daily chart at all.
BTW, where the SHS comes from? I think it's heading to the right shoulder
now. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 8 For weekly close, you have to use weekly data, meaning, only
the Friday close data is used. The way you chart it is wrong. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 9 Right, although 13EMA isn't exactly 65EMA either. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 10 Oh. I don't know how to do weekly EMA on finance.yahoo.com. It
doesn't seem to provide such an option. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 11 You probably can't do that on yahoo.com, I download data and
use a cracked Amibroker to process it.
65EMA is probably close to 13EMA though. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 do you mean the long term SHS I mentioned?
there is some discussions and chart here
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=62783
I tend to believe that Dow to 1000 is very unlikely but Dow to 1-2 oz of
gold is still quite possible |
|
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 14 看到10400怎么反弹到10850的吗？爬上10400站稳之前，
啥都不是。
愿意烧的，可以在10200烧，10500止损。我是下看9000点
不变，时间在8月份。
这个涨法是熊市走法，MM来不及捞，光够逼空的。 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 15 has your data shown a cross of EMA13 and 34 at this Friday close?
I feel that they are very close now
It seems that this rise from 9600 is THE process to form the right shoulder
if the SHS is in play. In a perfect pattern, the right shoulder will
reach its high in earliy August at about 10600-10700 and a crash will start
from there |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 16 Not yet on dji, but it crossed on spx 2 weeks ago already.
The trade should open on 1010.48 last augst close on 1077.96
2 weeks ago. 6.67% return for near one year.
shoulder
start |
|
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 18 I didn't enter a short trade, but if I did, I'd stop loss
by now.
The market is stronger than I think. And I admit I was wrong
in the prediction.
I wouldn't enter a long position in here though. And TA
doesn't work every time, we know that. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 19 the crash may just be postponed for another couple months
it will come |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 What do the EMA curves look like now? Does it look like crossing
again any time soon if the market keeps bullish? |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 21 Yes, if it keeps bullish for a few weeks, it will cross up
giving a bullish signal again.
MA methods do not do well in pig market. Usually the loss
will be small though. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 22 the SHS pattern worked beautifully so far, both time and price
it may have a rebounce in the near future
but it is highly likely to have a crash similar to the one two years ago
in the next two months
shoulder
start |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 23 我还是看跌，这个假想的上升通道没有任何确认。当然局部头肩顶如果要确认的话从这
里就应该下去了。我认为跌势会继续。 |
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P***5
发帖数: 1089 | 24 保守的做法是先买回卖掉的etf, 賺五六个点。激进的做法是等利率继续涨, 再回调几
个点。考虑中。
至于所谓的W底, 头肩顶的说法, 我并不以为然。
这个版上风气比股版要好些, 但牛人不说话,闷声发大财。而大部分人是只知道死捂死
皮,不敢折腾。没什么意思。 |
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b*******7
发帖数: 907 | 25 走了一个标准的头肩顶，但貌似已经反转，大的趋势还是向上。如果近期Mortgage
rate跟着变好，抓住机会赶紧Lock |
|
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发帖数: 1 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: mikeandlily (mike), 信区: Stock
标 题: 大萧条可能近在眼前了，有好戏看了。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Dec 15 12:52:37 2018, 美东)
头肩顶都已经形成了，一旦放巨量跌破23500（不出意外就在下周）就将宣告美股正式
进入熊市。
十年之前美国同样遭遇经济危机，全世界经济哀鸿遍野，只有中国经济一枝
独秀，虽然A股市场也暴跌，但是A股对中国经济半毛钱关系都没有。当时美国高层跑到
中国请中国救市，才有了温家宝的四万亿救市。当时国内外骂声一片，我也是其中之一
，觉得中国为什么要救全球市场？现在回过头来想想，不得不佩服中共厉害。恰恰这十
年是中国飞速发展的十年，中国虽然表面上损失了很多，但是从这十年的长远发展来看
，中国得到的更多，尤其是特朗普最近重点打击的知识产权和技术转让，中国其实得到
了大大的便宜。
现在十年过去了，美股大概率又要进熊市了，这次熊市波及范围有多广谁也不知道，会不
会进入大萧条也没人敢预测，但可以肯定的是，如果这次经济危机是十年前的程度，中
国政府不太可能再救... 阅读全帖 |
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D**********R
发帖数: 25234 | 28 哦，忘了说，我也是用翻盖的stupid phone，以前都背奶粉公司送的尿布包，后来是朋
友送的20多的跨肩包很舒服大方，人家还送了个100多的，提包，不实用，就出门做客
聚会啥的背过，进了门往沙发上一扔，谁知道是谁的，还不如大华的塑料袋轻便。。。
。。 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: mikeandlily1 (mike), 信区: Military
标 题: 大萧条可能近在眼前了，有好戏看了。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Dec 15 12:11:48 2018, 美东)
头肩顶都已经形成了，一旦放巨量跌破23500（不出意外就在下周）就将宣告美股正式
进入熊市。
十年之前美国同样遭遇经济危机，全世界经济哀鸿遍野，只有中国经济一枝
独秀，虽然A股市场也暴跌，但是A股对中国经济半毛钱关系都没有。当时美国高层跑到
中国请中国救市，才有了温家宝的四万亿救市。当时国内外骂声一片，我也是其中之一
，觉得中国为什么要救全球市场？现在回过头来想想，不得不佩服中共厉害。恰恰这十
年是中国飞速发展的十年，中国虽然表面上损失了很多，但是从这十年的长远发展来看
，中国得到的更多，尤其是特朗普最近重点打击的知识产权和技术转让，中国其实得到
了大大的便宜。
现在十年过去了，美股大概率又要进熊市了，这次熊市波及范围有多广谁也不知道，会不
会进入大萧条也没人敢预测，但可以肯定的是，如果这次经济危机是十年前的程度，中
国政... 阅读全帖 |
|
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r******a
发帖数: 295 | 31 导语：6日著名贵金属和能源分析师克里斯·弗穆伦(Chris Vermeulen)对上周股市和金
银能源的走势作出了技术分析和评论。
道琼斯工业平均指数
分析道指的图形之后我们会发现，我们仍处于熊市当中。道指的图形上没有任何中
期(2-8周)看涨的信号。短期内道指处于支撑位附近，周一可能出现反弹，但总体上我
们看到的仍是看跌的价格走势。放量下跌和缩量上涨对于技术交易者而言是一个警告，
提醒我们用对冲或设止损的办法保护好自己的头寸。
从图上我们还可以看到，股市已经形成了一个头肩顶形态，指向比当前低得多的价
位。这是一个非常可靠的下跌形态，这也是为什么我在这里向大家指出来。
黄金(204,-0.80,-0.39%)(GLD)
如果不出什么意外，黄金看起来要走出新一轮涨势。目前价格已经突破了蓝色的下
降趋势线，我们等待动能开始由跌转升，从而确认我们的看涨判断。黄金股表现不错，
如果运气好的话，股市的下跌将会使得投资者转向黄金。我继续等待买进黄金的低风险
建仓机会。
白银(SLV)
上周白银继续下滑，这是因为白银作为安全资产的地位远不如黄金。尽管老练的交
易者知道它的价值， |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 32 个人感觉MOVE有希望，但是很可能会萎靡一段时间。
NTWK很像头肩顶，做空的料？
其他不清楚，本人不做科技股。 |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 33 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
TharsisMons (Mars) 于 (Fri Nov 6 12:38:40 2009, 美东) 提到:
ding.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
huplus (huplus) 于 (Fri Nov 6 12:40:41 2009, 美东) 提到:
RE.
鳄鱼凶猛，青蛙小心。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
releeze (releeze) 于 (Fri Nov 6 12:43:24 2009, 美东) 提到:
恩，我看大盘撑不了多久了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
yokel (uuuu) 于 (Fri Nov 6 12:45:49 2009, 美东) 提到:
等着跌，再涨就要被call走了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Mantravadi ( |
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S******s
发帖数: 914 | 34 从这个图上好象看不出来, 是个头肩顶, 好象要在81附近振荡一阵子. |
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w****k
发帖数: 6244 | 35 distribution那么多天，下破了头肩顶
才跌那么点儿，就做出个底的样子，而且
还蛮明显。
感觉是个套。 |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 36 agree. We need some more serious correction, for a 10-year secular bull
market. hehe |
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e**s
发帖数: 4638 | 37 去年年底之前有个warren wang，拼命叫嚣头肩顶，看图不能太执着。。。。 |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 38 我之前也提到。所以很明显的pattern未必就不管用了 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 40 美股可以用stop，A股不行。。。当天买的当天不能卖。。。靠！
美股过些天站稳了可以做个反弹，然后接近前期高点了就开始防空，哇哈哈哈
上周做多S, WNR，MGM居然还赚了~~小得意阿 |
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y***k
发帖数: 1078 | 42 就这幅图, 即使长期熊, 如果它要作双顶, 会再去1200. 如果它要作头肩顶, 会再去1150. 这算几个月的推测. 不管哪一个, 几个月内都可能很牛啊.
基本
的时候。 |
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o********e
发帖数: 894 | 44 是欧
头肩顶至少得等第二个肩膀出来，放量下冲才能确定
偶们这里都自己划肩膀 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 45 我老可是早早提醒让大家逃命了。这么明显的头肩顶，
不信邪就不做，何必对着干呢。 |
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o****e
发帖数: 4946 | 46 SUMMER RALLY？那个头肩顶究竟是个传说还是个杯具？ |
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o****e
发帖数: 4946 | 49 confirm头肩顶啊，三山啊，大跌在后头呢，前面有人喊SP500 861，我看靠普 |
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y***q
发帖数: 4147 | 50 再上个去年6月份的，看着象头肩顶不？
但是当时大盘是金叉。 |
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