s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 1 下周可能技术性反弹, 但是这几天的跌并不是因为主要因为西腊问题.
或者这么说吧, 当好消息出尽, 熊市要搞一会了.
毕竟掩盖来掩盖去, 问题还是问题, 不可能永远掩盖的.
日本股市马上就要大跌. |
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s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 2 我是听个美国人预测的, 由于美国政府吃进太多债务.
所以还要慢慢吐出来. 银行的赢利能力其实很难说. 大银行看起来好点了, 但是前十
的大银行的表现
很容易扭曲美国整个金融业的残状. 现在FDIC有888个银行别列为危险银行, 没有足够
的资金保护 .
次贷危机前只有8家好象被列为危险银行. 这个名单FDIC是不会公布的, 公布了必然引
起恐慌.
BAC被人估计为最有问题的大银行之一. 有的人也估计了近一两年会有一到两个美国的
大的金融机构倒
闭. 虽然有点难以相信. 但是次贷的时候不是也发生了么?
债务不会消失, 等到爆发的时候来的那是相当的快. 散户基本没时间跑.
美国人自己说的好, 西腊有问题, 别的富裕点的国家可以救. 其实美国自己的问题最严
重, 地球上没有
谁富裕到可以把我们救了. 美国联邦可以印钞票, 但是各个洲不能印, 所以各个洲都是
勒紧裤带过日
子.
有庞大的债务在头上, BAC到底啥表现我不看好. 原来我也是捂了这思一段时间, 后来
14快卖了.
上去的可能性肯定有, 但是不大. 所以我是不碰银行股的. |
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s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 3 过度消费的唯一合理解决办法就是勤俭节约, 努力生产. 使经济走上正轨.
总是靠借贷, 最后只能是国家背上沉重的债务, 14.7T 的外债, 已经直奔美国的GDP了.
当债务占GDP的比例越来越高的时候, 经济发展基本就是空谈. 而且问题就越来越严重.
只能靠增加税收, 减少福利来弥补.
美联储的资深人士说, 现在应该马上加息, 鼓励储蓄, 长痛不如短痛.
但是美联储, 美国政府是不能这么做的, 至少短期内很难. 这中间有太多的利益关系了
, 况且, 他们
看的指标也不是老百姓看的指标. 而且, 美国人也过惯了浪费的日子, 让5%的世界人口
从消费40%的世
界能源到消费5%的世界能源, 估计美国人自己要造反了.
美国唯一可以借用的杠杆就是美元, 一旦美元地位受损, 美国就完了. 或许那时候战争
就是唯一的解决
途径. |
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c*******r
发帖数: 6971 | 4 所以啥都可以消减就是军费不消减，DOD要6700亿，众议院批了6900亿，LOL
了.
重. |
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s**********l
发帖数: 8966 | 6 美国不需要勤俭节约，美国需要努力创新，现在的问题是创新不成了，难道靠facebook
把GDP拉上
去？
还是要根本性改善人民生活的科技，像信息高速公路一样的革命。
了.
重. |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 7 不是很多大公司的业绩都创历史新高，怎么不招人？
人家别的国家货币涨了那么多，怎么就业还比美国好。就连欧洲
那种养懒人的地方都比美国就业好。 |
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m****a
发帖数: 76 | 8
了.
重.
来个战争神马债务就都解决了。军火的收入，物资的掠夺，能源的控制······神
马都解决了。 |
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s**o
发帖数: 114 | 13 其实很多企业很赚钱，但是知道现在员工很害怕失业，所以原来两个人的活一个人干，
所以哪里有工作机会！
说到底还是资本家的贪婪和对利益最大化的追求。我最近和一些公司联系就是这样，对
方真是忙啊！一直在电话上，我每次只得留言。如果一直这样忙，说明这个人的工作量
太大了。公司应该再招人，然后现在谁愿意去做那个傻事呢？ |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 14 經濟危機的時候，沒有刺激，靠勤儉能夠脫困？這是甚麼經濟理論？
了.
重. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 16 You are right on the source of the problems in US and Greece: over
consumption.
Buy why they over consumed?
the answer is very simple: people who did not produce got money from the
welfare system/government so they can
spend other people's money. Same reason Socialism failed.
If the US does not stop welfare spending, Greece is the future America.
了.
重. |
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g*********e
发帖数: 14401 | 17
that's not possible. U.S. brands itself as the place in the world where
anyone can get good life, no matter what he or she is capable of.
Destroying the welfare system destroys that illusion. The dummy average
Americans would not allow any president to do that, and all pres-candidate
understands this. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 18 Then stock up on dry food, legal guns and ammos.
And maybe gold.
And pray. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 19 You have been brain-washed by communists.
Or maybe you were brain-dead to begin with. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 20 I appreciate your religious fervor, but unfortunately, we live in a real
world. BTW, if I were you, I would be much more careful in calling other
people brain-washed if my religion had been proven wrong almost all the time
. But, religion being religion, you probably would not let anyone convince
you with evidence. End of discussion. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 21 piling up more debts to solve a debt crisis
what's the theory or even logic behind this? |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 22 My question would rather be:
Do you really think the financial and economic crisis caused
by over-consumption can be solved by more consumption? |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 23 Without economic growth and tax revenue growth, debt will grow on its own
just because interest grows. Now the important issue is how to make the
economy grow, not how to pay down the debt. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 24 Perhaps not. But the current problem is not too much consumption, but too
little for the economy to grow. No consumption, no jobs. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 25 OK, economy growth is important
but how do you think that a country piling up more debt can grow faster than
a country with less debt.
Let's put it this way, if taking more debt is the solution, economy would
be so easy to run. Everybody just stops any other activities, keeps piling
up debts and then you would get your growth. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 26 Taking on more debt in the short term may contribute to reduction of debt in
the long term. Of course the solution is not to take on more debt all the
time. During boom time, the government should pay down its debt. But,
cutting spending to reduce debt when the economy is not growing is not a
good idea.
than |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 27 at least you used "may"
so it can be "may not"
what will happen then
actually it is happening now
two doses, QE and QE2, injected
market is tanking again with a crashing dollar
you cant use the same treatments for all patients
you have to figure out the root cause for the illness and use specific
treatment.
stimulation can not work for a debt crisis induced recession, simple as that
in |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 28 Jobs come from capital investment, capital investment comes from savings.
Savings comes from less consumption.
Which party of this flow chart do you not understand? Zombie. |
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z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 29 美国有什么好造反的
美国佬消费世界5%的日子又不是没过过
当年大萧条时候还不是一样孤立主义盛行
饿肚子归饿肚子，比起上战场提脑袋拼命那还是要好太多了
节约顶啥用啊，大家都节约了，那生产出来的产品给猪用啊？
美国当前的问题不在于节约，而在于百姓不敢消费了
不敢消费了就会产生恶性循环，越是不敢消费，企业越是没有利润
越是没有利润，越是不敢消费，最后了断
这对于一个第三产业占gdp大比重的国家来说是致命的
美国跟中国不一样，中国我不认为提倡消费是个好方法
供应面供应不了，中国并没有控制世界上绝大多数的石油，铁矿，钾肥etc.
美国不一样，美国控制了这些资源，美国要是不消费
控制这些资源是有成本的，如果美国人不消费
美国也就离衰弱不远了，这就是为什么美国政府要刺激经济
不是为了节约，是为了提振民心，鼓励美国人去消费
了.
重. |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 30 Here is the problem: If Americans know how to save during the
good time, there wouldn't be this crisis at the first place.
Stimulation may work for the first time, but after stimulation
got you out of the crisis, you must save, that's the only way
to prevent it from happening again. Unfortunately, nobody wants
to save during the good time. You give them a stimulation and
get them out of the crisis, and then tell them to save, do you
think anyone will listen? No, they won't, they never.
As a matt... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 31 大帅是经济学家。不该止于hand waving, warm and fuzz呀。
去St. Louis FED网页那几个数据出来看看。personal spending 总体是leveraging还
是deleveraging不就清楚了。 |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 32 Personal spending got de-leveraged not because they save but
because they really don't have any more money to spend, which
is even worse.
And please, don't throw title on me. I found it very annoying.
I am not anybody, I just share my thought. |
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s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 33 刺激是没问题. 节约是对过度消费而言.
你看美国这么消费还能支撑多久? |
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s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 34 你要是讨论我的观点可以, 但是你要是想和我开骂我也对你不客气. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 35 No more collateral left to leverage on. Hense the deleveraging.
QE slows deleveraging process,, does not change the change the trend.
The problem is the fiscal policy, not the monetary policy. Monetary policy
creates economic cycles, not trend.
The root course is the fiscal policy.
This time, It is beyond the power of the Fed. |
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s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 36 对于针对个人的贴子我一般都是忍的, 不乐意有任何针对人身的言语.
But do not mix kindness and weakness. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 37 If Americans were this rational as your logic suggested, none of the crises
would have happened.
Furthermore, you don't want to wreck the economy just to prove a point. For
example, Europe will bail out Greece, even though theoretically they could
set an example to discourage future such behavior. But the cost of not
bailing out Greece would be so large that such discouragement would not have
an opportunity to take effect. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 38 You Don't work to make living, do you?
Because we working people would understand tah we have to work to provide
for our families. Your bailouts all come
from savings of us working people. And now your are running out of our
money, the total capital base in the
developed world is SHRINKING.
You don't need an economic degree to understand this common sense.
By the way, Which economic school did you attend?
crises
For
have |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 39 My point is: Bail-out cannot solve the problem, it will only
make it worse, because people will not learn. The so-called
'too big to fail' is how those bankers scare you in order to
save themselves.
History has told us that if you let them fail, the economy will
suffer in short term but self-healing strongly a little after.
If you don't let them fail, they will stay there doing exactly
what they did before and cause the crisis again due to exactly
the same reason.
Just see what have happened ---... 阅读全帖 |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 40 What did people learn from the Great Depression? There was no bailout, many
businesses and banks did fail, and the economy went into, well, great
depression. But somehow 70 years later, people still built a big big bubble.
Your theory sounds nice, but it should never be a guide during economic
crisis, or disaster will ensue. Structural problems should be fixed while
there is room for maneuver, at least after the economy recovers from the
crisis. |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 41 Sigh, you are so Ben Bernanke.
The disaster is ensued because of what people did in the past,
not because what they are doing now. You did the bad thing, and
you get punished, it's the natural law and cannot be manipulated
by human.
The Great Depression got its turning point in 1932. It was worse,
but it was shorter. For the current crisis, I say we haven't seen
the real big one yet, because it got delayed by all these
stimulations we have done. Note that it's delayed, not solved.
I know that we... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 42 I take it back. No offense meant, Guguru. |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 43 现在是供给/产能过剩，消费不足。再遏制需求，那可能是大萧条重演。两害取其轻。
凯恩斯主义比较接近真理。
了.
重. |
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p***k
发帖数: 6 | 44 The fundamental reason is that the world has too many people and there will
always be someone who do not have job.
The only solution is to force everyone in the world works for only 25-30
hours/week so everyone will have a job and can consume. |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 45 PPS 有一部好系列片
看了可以理解 why American the way they are
北美以前全是森林的，森林当时的价植和现在的石油一样
木材是用来建航母，无敌舰队的 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 46 3% trade account deficit, that is hardly oversupply.
Not to mention shrinking capital base, dis-savings for a whole decade.
That is your oversupply?
Again, over consumption leads to lower savings, lower savings leads to lower
investment, lower investment leads to
lower productivity, lower productivity leads to lower employment.
Lower employment or high unemployment, that is where we are today.
Only way to lead the countrynout of this downward spiral is to increae
savings, therefore more inves... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 47 You are talking about classical economic theory.
People are now counting on new growth theory.
But before the new technology is discovered, what can we do?
lower |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 48 Let's not ignore the 7 million people who are out of work.
That's Oversupply and overcapacity.
FYI, productivity is quite high right now, atypical of post-crisis data.
lower |
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l****t
发帖数: 1379 | 49 有几个问题, 其实应该想想.
1。 日本地震后, 为什么股市这么快就起来了?
2。 前几天怎么股市一跌, 有开始提说是日本地震的影响了? 难道日本地震的时候没有
想到发展会变
慢?
3。 最近好象没有人提欧洲债务问题了吧， 虽然离西腊default时间越来越近了?
4。 前几天美国评级机构威胁说, 如果美国国债上限问题不解决, 美国的评级会降低,
但是股市没有任
何反应? 几个月前SP的一次, 美国股市跌了几百点, 现在可是离美国债务问题的时间更
近了, 怎么好
象反而没人在意了?
其实股市和政治都是连在一起的, 怎么最近突然集体打压中概？ 简单的因为帐目问题?
美国的公司帐目就都对么？ LEHMAN 倒闭的时候， 后来发现, 帐目现金少了5个亿还是
50个亿来着,
还是经过四大审核的, 后来也就算了. 帐目都是可以做的.
吧。 |
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l****t
发帖数: 1379 | 50 这个逻辑有点问题.
西腊破产了都没事, 有富的国家救.
能说美国破产了没事么？ 谁救的起? |
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