s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 1 Sorry guys, no Chinese inputs at work.
Actuary is not my major but I need some professional advise here.
A very simple question. I couldn't think it through on my own.
My insurance agent give me and my ld 2 options:
1. For a $50 monthly premium we get 20 year term life insurance of $1M.
2. For a $205 monthly premium we get same insurance plus $47,000 at the end
of the 20 year term.
My calculation is assuming 3% inflation rate, all the premiums I paid
throughout the 20 years is equivalent to $37,819 of cash value today. But
the $47,000 future money I am going to receive is only $26,803 equiv. So I
end up losing $11016 by choosing option 2. Right?
Can anyone here please explain and advise me on which one to go with?
Thank you all! Baozi to the best 10 answers. Me poor man one, that's all I have. |
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 2 u may die within 20 years to receive the 1M death benefit.
end
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: Sorry guys, no Chinese inputs at work.
: Actuary is not my major but I need some professional advise here.
: A very simple question. I couldn't think it through on my own.
: My insurance agent give me and my ld 2 options:
: 1. For a $50 monthly premium we get 20 year term life insurance of $1M.
: 2. For a $205 monthly premium we get same insurance plus $47,000 at the end
: of the 20 year term.
: My calculation is assuming 3% inflation rate, all the premiums I paid
: throughout the 20 years is equivalent to $37,819 of cash value today. But
: the $47,000 future money I am going to receive is only $26,803 equiv. So I
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 3 btw, if these two policies r equivalent, it implies that the present value
of 150 per month equals that of 47000 in time 20.
end
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: Sorry guys, no Chinese inputs at work.
: Actuary is not my major but I need some professional advise here.
: A very simple question. I couldn't think it through on my own.
: My insurance agent give me and my ld 2 options:
: 1. For a $50 monthly premium we get 20 year term life insurance of $1M.
: 2. For a $205 monthly premium we get same insurance plus $47,000 at the end
: of the 20 year term.
: My calculation is assuming 3% inflation rate, all the premiums I paid
: throughout the 20 years is equivalent to $37,819 of cash value today. But
: the $47,000 future money I am going to receive is only $26,803 equiv. So I
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 4 Errrr, please leave the death factor out of the equation, would you? Thanks
:)
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: u may die within 20 years to receive the 1M death benefit.
:
: end
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 5 205-50=155, you mean this right?
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: btw, if these two policies r equivalent, it implies that the present value
: of 150 per month equals that of 47000 in time 20.
:
: end
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 6 ya, typo.
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: 205-50=155, you mean this right?
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 7 I got this part but my confusion is:
Option 1------ I throw away $50 a month if we don't die in 20 years.
Option 2------ I throw away first $50 and then $150 in the hope of getting
someting back to recoup the loss of $50, but actually the $150 cannot even
generate return on itself, so the $50 is anyway for sure a sunk cost can't
be recovered. With this being said, Option 1 is better?
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: ya, typo.
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 8 the $155 monthly payment should be equavalent with $47000 at time 20,
otherwise there may be an arbitrage opportunity. if ur calculation doesnt
get the same PV, this means ur assumption of inflation rate/interest rate is
inappropriate.
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: I got this part but my confusion is:
: Option 1------ I throw away $50 a month if we don't die in 20 years.
: Option 2------ I throw away first $50 and then $150 in the hope of getting
: someting back to recoup the loss of $50, but actually the $150 cannot even
: generate return on itself, so the $50 is anyway for sure a sunk cost can't
: be recovered. With this being said, Option 1 is better?
|
a********t
发帖数: 1810 | 9 你没听明白你的AGENT的OPTION.他/她不可能卖第二种险的,NO SENSE.
假如你买第二种,10后你就死了,除了给1M,还有别的吗? |
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 10 但是如果20年后没死，可以拿回来47000啊
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 你没听明白你的AGENT的OPTION.他/她不可能卖第二种险的,NO SENSE.
: 假如你买第二种,10后你就死了,除了给1M,还有别的吗?
|
|
|
a********t
发帖数: 1810 | 11 计算保费哪有像你这么简单的,用精算公式算出来的只是COI,还要加上AC,在考虑PROFIT
MARGIN才是最后的PREMIUM
is
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: the $155 monthly payment should be equavalent with $47000 at time 20,
: otherwise there may be an arbitrage opportunity. if ur calculation doesnt
: get the same PV, this means ur assumption of inflation rate/interest rate is
: inappropriate.
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 12 I think 3% inflation rate is fairly conservative.... So technically is my
calculation correct?
$155*12=1860.
20 years of annually pmt $1860 equals to $28502 pv cash outflow.
FV $47000 at year 20 equals to $26803 pv cash inflow.
I lost $1698 on this case if 3% were used, right?
Even if they all equal say breakeven no loss at all, then what's the point
of option 2 vs. option 1? What benefit can people get from option 2 instead
of 1? |
a********t
发帖数: 1810 | 13 我现爱问的是20年内死了,拿多少,就拿1M?如果一个月后就死了,一个人交了50,一个人
交了205,但都是拿1M,那谁会买第二种?
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 但是如果20年后没死，可以拿回来47000啊
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 14 I didn't ask her yet. The outline says "The xxxx Endowment Term is a term
life insurance product that returns cash surrender value on the endowment
date at the end of the level preium period. " So I assum I won't get
anything if I die before 20 years term ending?
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 你没听明白你的AGENT的OPTION.他/她不可能卖第二种险的,NO SENSE.
: 假如你买第二种,10后你就死了,除了给1M,还有别的吗?
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 15 话不能这么讲吧，那我问你，两种彩票，中奖的话给1w。一种卖1块，没中的话啥也没
有；一种卖1块5，没中的话返你1块。你的意思是傻子才买第二种？
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 我现爱问的是20年内死了,拿多少,就拿1M?如果一个月后就死了,一个人交了50,一个人
: 交了205,但都是拿1M,那谁会买第二种?
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 16 我说错了。这个要考虑生命表里的死亡概率的。不是简单的计算PV.
is
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: the $155 monthly payment should be equavalent with $47000 at time 20,
: otherwise there may be an arbitrage opportunity. if ur calculation doesnt
: get the same PV, this means ur assumption of inflation rate/interest rate is
: inappropriate.
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 17 But why that I am feeling option 2 is if you don't hit the jackpot, you get
$0.50 back, instead of the $1 you mentioned below? See your example is
option one, throw away $1, option two trow away $0.50. But my insurance case
is option 1 throw away $50, option 2 still throw away $50.
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 话不能这么讲吧，那我问你，两种彩票，中奖的话给1w。一种卖1块，没中的话啥也没
: 有；一种卖1块5，没中的话返你1块。你的意思是傻子才买第二种？
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 18 Errrrr...... I don't think I belong to the high risk group but who knows....
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 我说错了。这个要考虑生命表里的死亡概率的。不是简单的计算PV.
:
: is
|
a********t
发帖数: 1810 | 19 你这个例子当然可以,保费的65%都返回了,可他那个是吗?你看看返回了多少,他肯定是
没听明白AGENT的条款
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 话不能这么讲吧，那我问你，两种彩票，中奖的话给1w。一种卖1块，没中的话啥也没
: 有；一种卖1块5，没中的话返你1块。你的意思是傻子才买第二种？
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 20 the terms of cash return if die earlier? If there's no such return, option 2
is sure to be a junk right?
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 你这个例子当然可以,保费的65%都返回了,可他那个是吗?你看看返回了多少,他肯定是
: 没听明白AGENT的条款
|
|
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 21 是的,我这个例子只不过是为了反驳他之前的观点而取的比较极端罢了.在你的那个例子
里,在不考虑其他任何费用和利润的情况下,47000的PV乘以你能活到20年后的概率应该
等于155×sigma（对t从1到240求和）（你能活到t个月的概率）×t时刻折现率
get
case
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: But why that I am feeling option 2 is if you don't hit the jackpot, you get
: $0.50 back, instead of the $1 you mentioned below? See your example is
: option one, throw away $1, option two trow away $0.50. But my insurance case
: is option 1 throw away $50, option 2 still throw away $50.
|
C***o
发帖数: 68 | 22
2
At this point I agree with the accountant, though I do not like accouting.
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: the terms of cash return if die earlier? If there's no such return, option 2
: is sure to be a junk right?
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 23 Okay I just called her, and she told me if you die before 20 years you get
nothing but the 1M. So I should go with option 1? She's running another
quote for me for the 30 years because she thinks that's a better plan in
terms of return. I will update here.
【在 C***o 的大作中提到】
:
: 2
: At this point I agree with the accountant, though I do not like accouting.
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 24 I see. And really at this point I don't see any advantage of choosing option
2. :(
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 是的,我这个例子只不过是为了反驳他之前的观点而取的比较极端罢了.在你的那个例子
: 里,在不考虑其他任何费用和利润的情况下,47000的PV乘以你能活到20年后的概率应该
: 等于155×sigma（对t从1到240求和）（你能活到t个月的概率）×t时刻折现率
:
: get
: case
|
a********t
发帖数: 1810 | 25 你这个例子当然可以,保费的65%都返回了,可他那个是吗?你看看返回了多少,他肯定是
没听明白AGENT的条款
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 话不能这么讲吧，那我问你，两种彩票，中奖的话给1w。一种卖1块，没中的话啥也没
: 有；一种卖1块5，没中的话返你1块。你的意思是傻子才买第二种？
|
w******g
发帖数: 313 | 26 我算了一下，按每年2400，3%利息算，20年后值64489，相当于返了73%
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 你这个例子当然可以,保费的65%都返回了,可他那个是吗?你看看返回了多少,他肯定是
: 没听明白AGENT的条款
|
z*f
发帖数: 139 | 27 Option 2:
You are buying #1
And
Paying ($205-$50)=$155 monthly premium for a $47,000 20Y pure endowment.
To caluclate the IRR for the pure endowment, you need to assume a mortality
table.
The calculation can be easily done in a spreadsheet.
An extreme case:
Assume zero mortality:
PV(240 payments of $155)@IRR=$47,000*(1+IRR)^(-20)
IRR is about 2.88%.
The higher mortality, the lower return for you.
A suggestion for you: if your only purpose is to cover mortality risk and
you are a healthy young man, buy a term. To say so, I am assuming those
actuaries always price right and make money on their products. I really
doubt though.
Baozi please.
end
【在 s*****7 的大作中提到】
: Sorry guys, no Chinese inputs at work.
: Actuary is not my major but I need some professional advise here.
: A very simple question. I couldn't think it through on my own.
: My insurance agent give me and my ld 2 options:
: 1. For a $50 monthly premium we get 20 year term life insurance of $1M.
: 2. For a $205 monthly premium we get same insurance plus $47,000 at the end
: of the 20 year term.
: My calculation is assuming 3% inflation rate, all the premiums I paid
: throughout the 20 years is equivalent to $37,819 of cash value today. But
: the $47,000 future money I am going to receive is only $26,803 equiv. So I
|
s*****7
发帖数: 1142 | 28 Thank you all. I decide to go with option 1 as I really don't see the point
to purchase option 2. Thanks! Please get the baozi! |
