G*****y 发帖数: 2768 | |
s*********n 发帖数: 2283 | 2 Let me be clear. I am pretty sure you were looking at the following plot,
which was also shown on WWDC.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Apple/31428385.html
At least two things should be thought over before you made such a
conclusion.
1) There is no P&S camera shown in the top list, even though P&S cameras
has a much higher market share. This means, the sample selection is not
unbiased or this website is not representative or there are lots of
choices of P&S cameras.
2) Once again there are all DSLR cameras in the top list, except iPhone.
I agree that it is impressive that iPhone makes into the top list. Even if
it could be true that P&S cameras were dying, I don't understand why you
would make a conclusion that it would be due to Apple.
A more straightforward conclusion is there are a lot of Flicker users
using DSLR instead P&S cameras. |
a***y 发帖数: 19743 | 3 太简单了
卡片机型号太多,自然被冲淡了。好的DSLR型号很少。iPhone型号也很少。
has
I
it
would
【在 s*********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Let me be clear. I am pretty sure you were looking at the following plot, : which was also shown on WWDC. : http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Apple/31428385.html : At least two things should be thought over before you made such a : conclusion. : 1) There is no P&S camera shown in the top list, even though P&S cameras : has a much higher market share. This means, the sample selection is not : unbiased or this website is not representative or there are lots of : choices of P&S cameras. : 2) Once again there are all DSLR cameras in the top list, except iPhone.
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s*********n 发帖数: 2283 | 4 I agree ... But the conclusion of "苹果扩张的下个牺牲品:卡片相机" is
ridiculous.
【在 a***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 太简单了 : 卡片机型号太多,自然被冲淡了。好的DSLR型号很少。iPhone型号也很少。 : : has : I : it : would
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a***y 发帖数: 19743 | 5 I don't see how it is ridiculous.
This is the conclusion I made 2 years ago.
准确的说,智能手机将取代大部分卡片相机。
【在 s*********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I agree ... But the conclusion of "苹果扩张的下个牺牲品:卡片相机" is : ridiculous.
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s*********n 发帖数: 2283 | 6 C'mon, ppl also said DVD player would replace theaters. BTW, Apple is the
only 智能手机?
【在 a***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I don't see how it is ridiculous. : This is the conclusion I made 2 years ago. : 准确的说,智能手机将取代大部分卡片相机。
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a***y 发帖数: 19743 | 7 DVD和theater相似性
vs
智能手机相机和卡片机相似性
are you out of your mind?
you are arguing for the arguing sake.
【在 s*********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : C'mon, ppl also said DVD player would replace theaters. BTW, Apple is the : only 智能手机?
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s*********n 发帖数: 2283 | 8 You are out of mind. You are arguing for the arguing sake.
What kind of similarities you want? It completely depends on which
perspective you are going to look at.
One perspective is
1) From a DVD player or camera phone point of view, DVD player is much
more convenient than going to theater. ppl also said camera phone is
much more convenient since I don't need to carrying two.
2) From a theater or P&D camera point of view, theater can provide much
movie going experience. P&D camera can provide much better quality.
So ... you can understand now.
【在 a***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : DVD和theater相似性 : vs : 智能手机相机和卡片机相似性 : are you out of your mind? : you are arguing for the arguing sake.
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m*****k 发帖数: 1864 | 9 neither of you two will be right. |
s****y 发帖数: 3071 | 10 那究竟会是什么样子?
这貌似是一个非负既正的问题,总有一个会对的吧?
我这次觉得maybe 阿嚏那方是对得,smartphone
或者phone带有高端相机功能 or 卡片相机带有高端智能手机
功能的devices会取代单一卡片机的。
【在 m*****k 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : neither of you two will be right.
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m*****k 发帖数: 1864 | 11 我就随便一说。这些东西预言对预言错都是很个人的东西。除非拿钱去赌博不然毫无实
际意义。
但是还有另外一种可能就是出来一个莫名其妙的新设备把卡片机Kill了,但不一定是智
能电话。
或者卡片机变成电话了。那你能说卡片机死了么。
【在 s****y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 那究竟会是什么样子? : 这貌似是一个非负既正的问题,总有一个会对的吧? : 我这次觉得maybe 阿嚏那方是对得,smartphone : 或者phone带有高端相机功能 or 卡片相机带有高端智能手机 : 功能的devices会取代单一卡片机的。
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a***y 发帖数: 19743 | 12 可以说。
【在 m*****k 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我就随便一说。这些东西预言对预言错都是很个人的东西。除非拿钱去赌博不然毫无实 : 际意义。 : 但是还有另外一种可能就是出来一个莫名其妙的新设备把卡片机Kill了,但不一定是智 : 能电话。 : 或者卡片机变成电话了。那你能说卡片机死了么。
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n******o 发帖数: 362 | |
s********i 发帖数: 17328 | 14 i found out his is like that long time back so no argue with him...
【在 a***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : DVD和theater相似性 : vs : 智能手机相机和卡片机相似性 : are you out of your mind? : you are arguing for the arguing sake.
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a***y 发帖数: 19743 | 15 point taken
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : i found out his is like that long time back so no argue with him...
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s*****o 发帖数: 1262 | 16 你们说的卡片相机是指单反还是傻瓜相机?
单反不可能,傻瓜的话有可能,还有个好几年的时间。现在电话上的camera不管像素怎
么提高,镜头那么小始终效果出不来。对光线强度的依赖太大。大的镜头太占地方,整
合到手机里面不容易。
另外也要看相机生产商的反应。现在已经有比较小的单反了,如果这个趋势发展良好,
迷你单反、迷你准单反会取代今天的傻瓜相机。还有下一代成像技术好像要出来的,这
个我不是很懂不过貌似相机会大大变小。。。 |
G*****y 发帖数: 2768 | 17 Iphone 的优势是和社交网络结合紧密,快速分享。
Flickr,instagram,facebook这些社交平台上统计的数据,iphone占有绝对优势 |
p****t 发帖数: 11416 | 18 除非最烂的玩具机,否则卡片机至少也有三倍光学变焦
【在 s*****o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你们说的卡片相机是指单反还是傻瓜相机? : 单反不可能,傻瓜的话有可能,还有个好几年的时间。现在电话上的camera不管像素怎 : 么提高,镜头那么小始终效果出不来。对光线强度的依赖太大。大的镜头太占地方,整 : 合到手机里面不容易。 : 另外也要看相机生产商的反应。现在已经有比较小的单反了,如果这个趋势发展良好, : 迷你单反、迷你准单反会取代今天的傻瓜相机。还有下一代成像技术好像要出来的,这 : 个我不是很懂不过貌似相机会大大变小。。。
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c********t 发帖数: 5706 | 19 估计smart phone 很快就有光学变焦了。就像Sony 卡片机,不需要伸缩镜头。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
【在 p****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 除非最烂的玩具机,否则卡片机至少也有三倍光学变焦
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s*********n 发帖数: 2283 | 20 SONY-Ericsson has some cyber shot smart phones, I remember. Pretty cool.
I was think about getting one before.
【在 c********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计smart phone 很快就有光学变焦了。就像Sony 卡片机,不需要伸缩镜头。 : : ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
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s*****o 发帖数: 1262 | 21 你说的是哪款?数码变焦?
【在 c********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计smart phone 很快就有光学变焦了。就像Sony 卡片机,不需要伸缩镜头。 : : ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
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l*****e 发帖数: 16384 | 22 用的是潜望式镜头吧
【在 s*****o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你说的是哪款?数码变焦?
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c********t 发帖数: 5706 | 23 是地,相信不久smart phone 也会用的,最好闪光灯功率再大些,这样就完全取代卡片
相机了。不过卡片机照夜景也有限。
【在 l*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 用的是潜望式镜头吧
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m****t 发帖数: 555 | 24 镜头大小对成像质量的影响是最大的。就手机上的那个针孔镜头,不论怎么做,成像质
量还是赶不上傻瓜机上的小镜头,同样傻瓜机上的小镜头再怎么做也赶不上单反的大镜
头。
所以结论是,会造成一定冲击,但不可能完全取代。 |
s*****e 发帖数: 21415 | 25 物理限制:卡片机镜头和画质还是远超手机
当然,很多用户不care,也有可能。说kill为时过早
【在 G*****y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : As indicated by Flickr.
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M*****n 发帖数: 2948 | 26 不光卡片机,单体GPS迟早也要被智能手机,车载GPS搞死, |
u******a 发帖数: 7843 | 27 电影在很长一段时间都不会被替代, 光是作为最廉价泡妞/social/杀时间手段这一点就
已经无敌了. 人看电影不一定是去看电
影的...
泡妞是人类的第一需求...
【在 s*********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : You are out of mind. You are arguing for the arguing sake. : What kind of similarities you want? It completely depends on which : perspective you are going to look at. : One perspective is : 1) From a DVD player or camera phone point of view, DVD player is much : more convenient than going to theater. ppl also said camera phone is : much more convenient since I don't need to carrying two. : 2) From a theater or P&D camera point of view, theater can provide much : movie going experience. P&D camera can provide much better quality. : So ... you can understand now.
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