t*********8
发帖数: 134 | | z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 2 亚太区经济不行，天朝撑不住了
是时候准备退路回北美了 | t*********8
发帖数: 134 | 3 这个预测说到明年年底要到80 美分，不知靠谱不
Slump Strips Aussie Dollar of 'Poster Child' Status
The Australian dollar was served a double blow on Thursday, falling to its
lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2010, on concerns around the U.S.
Federal Reserve scaling back the pace of stimulus and a downturn in key
trading partner China's manufacturing sector.
And strategists expect the commodity currency, which is the second worst-
performing this year after the Japanese yen, to head further south in the
months to come.
"The Australian dollar was the poster child for G10 currencies – it offered
safe haven status, leveraged to China and high yield. Now all of those 3
attributes have been dented somewhat," said Nick Verdi, director, FX
strategy Asia Pacific ex-Japan at Barclays on Thursday.
"It is a lot less appealing to international investors. We think the Aussie
could head further south," Verdi said, adding that he expects the currency
to hit 86 U.S. cents against the dollar by mid-2014, from 92.24 cents
currently.
A mix of falling commodity prices alongside a slowdown in the economy of
Australia's largest trading partner China– reflected in the worse-than-
expected reading for the HSBC flash China Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)
for June – have dampened the attractiveness of the Aussie.
In addition, with the Reserve Bank of Australia in the middle of a rate
cutting cycle, the currency is no longer as appealing from a carry trade
perspective.
The RBA's move to cut interest rates from a peak of 4.75 percent in 2011 to
2.75 percent currently, has narrowed the interest rate spread between the
Australian dollar and the main funding currencies of the carry trade, the U.
S. dollar and Japanese yen.
Nick Verdi, Director of FX Strategy, Asia Pacific ex-Japan, from Barclays,
discusses his outlook for the Australian dollar - which slumped to its
lowest level since 2010 on Thursday. "When interest rates were at 4.75
percent it made sense to borrow in Japan or the U.S. close to zero and park
money in Australia. Now the yield pickup has almost halved and the downside
risks for Aussie have also risen because of obvious signs of stress in the
Australian economy," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP
Capital.
"The risk reward in favor of the carry trade has declined," said Oliver, who
sees the Aussie falling to around 86 cents against the greenback by mid-
2014, and close to 80 before the end of next year.
Chris Weston, chief market strategist at trading firm IG Markets, recommends
watching U.S. yields as an indicator of where the Aussie is headed.
"The unwind of the carry trade has been vicious with huge moves in
Australian dollar. Upside now in U.S. yields will have traders liquidating
these positions and heading into the U.S. dollar," wrote Weston.
"Anyone wanting to know where the Aussie-U.S. dollar is headed needs to
firmly have a view on the U.S. fixed income market. If the U.S. ten-year is
headed for 3 percent over time then the pair will head firmly below 0.90,
despite every hedge fund and leveraged player being max short already," he
said.
By CNBC's Ansuya Harjani
【在 z****e 的大作中提到】
: 亚太区经济不行，天朝撑不住了
: 是时候准备退路回北美了
| z****e
发帖数: 54598 | 4 澳洲如果货币这么坚挺
肯定撑不住，所以主动调低汇率是一种自保策略
否则等到形势压迫贬值的话，那就很痛苦了
所以到80美分应该是迟早的事
S.
offered
【在 t*********8 的大作中提到】
: 这个预测说到明年年底要到80 美分，不知靠谱不
: Slump Strips Aussie Dollar of 'Poster Child' Status
: The Australian dollar was served a double blow on Thursday, falling to its
: lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2010, on concerns around the U.S.
: Federal Reserve scaling back the pace of stimulus and a downturn in key
: trading partner China's manufacturing sector.
: And strategists expect the commodity currency, which is the second worst-
: performing this year after the Japanese yen, to head further south in the
: months to come.
: "The Australian dollar was the poster child for G10 currencies – it offered
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