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发帖数: 4964 | 4 On a constant basis, emails arrive in my inbox with complaints about the way
segments are broken down at GoodCarBadCar. And rightly so. All vehicles are
not as closely aligned with a competitor as, say, the Toyota Camry is with
the Honda Accord. We all see the potential for cross-shopping differently,
so I’m not offended when an aggressive reader calls me an idiot because I
displayed sales figures for the Audi A7 alongside sales figures for cars
like the A6, 5-Series, CLS-Class, and Infiniti M rather than the Porsche 911
, as per his request.
I often mention the fact that a friend of mine couldn’t decide between a
Mazda 3 and an F-150, so he bought a used Ranger. No one would argue that
the Mazda and F-150 are in the same class, but such are the whims of an
individual buyer. Or how about another reader who wanted to replace their 3-
Series with a Fiat 500?
There is, however, perhaps no segment for which borderlines can so easily be
drawn as the minivan category. The most unique vehicle in the class more
perfectly defines the term “minivan” than any other: Mazda’s 5, with its
sliding doors and three rows of seating, is truly mini.
As a result of the segment’s easily-defined end points, its total sales
figures are equally simple to calculate. There’s no debating which vehicles
apply: Chrysler Town & Country, Dodge Grand Caravan, Honda Odyssey, Kia
Sedona, Mazda 5, Nissan Quest, Toyota Sienna, Volkswagen Routan.
Sales of those eight vans are down 7.7% through the first two months of 2013
. On the surface, 2012 had been a decent year for minivans, as total segment
volume increased 12.9% in an overall market which produced a 13.4%
improvement. Five of the six vehicles which were continuing in production
generated year-over-year gains. Four of those five posted above-market-
average increases.
Overall, minivans were responsible for 3.8% of the new vehicle market’s
total volume. Minivans accounted for 5.2% of the overall market in 2007, the
final year before the overall market tanked. There were, of course, a
larger number of nameplates on sale five years ago. Remember the Mercury
Monterey? More than a million minivans (including 64,281 Chevrolet Astros
and GMC Safaris) were sold in 2002, when the category equalled 6.6% of the
overall market.
It’s long since been established that minivans aren’t the force they once
were. Yet the growth recorded by some members of the fraternity in 2012 –
Grand Caravan up 28%, Town & Country and Odyssey both up 18% – led some to
believe a resurgence, however slight, could be on forming.
Now, we’re only examining two months of winter data. Anything can happen
over the course of 59 days. GM’s pickup twins can outsell the F-Series by
severely undercutting Ford in price. Prius sales can fall. The Volkswagen
Beetle can outsell the Fiat 500, which can outsell the whole non-Countryman
Mini Cooper range. Incentives, or a lack of incentives, can skew results
beyond recognition. Production, supply, parts shortages, marketing campaigns
can all play a helpful or damaging role. And minivan sales can slide 7.7%.
Even when we exclude the departing Volkswagen Routan and on-hiatus Kia
Sedona, America’s minivan market still slid 3.4% in the first two months of
this year. Sound minor? Keep in mind, the overall market grew 8.4% during
that period.
It may not all be gloom and doom. February, during which minivans were
responsible for 3.4% of all new vehicle sales, wasn’t as bad as January,
when minivans accounted for just 2.8% of the market. Toyota Sienna sales are
rising, so much so that it’s the top seller this year. Mazda’s 5, the
enthusiast’s favourite, recorded its best U.S. February sales month in the
model’s history.
To suggest that 2013 may not be the year of the minivan isn’t exactly the
spotting of a trend. The continued rise of vehicles like the Honda CR-V and
the rebirth of the Ford Explorer have pushed minivans to the sidelines, and
this isn’t news. But if, maybe even when, you hear about crumbling Dodge
Grand Caravan volume and the curtailing of Honda Odyssey sales growth, you’
ll know that the winter of 2013, which was so kind to the Nissan Pathfinder
and Dodge Journey and Acura RDX, was a harsh winter indeed for minivans in
America |
