w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 1 根据CNN 如下报道， 美国汽车市场现在是供给远远大于需求， 大家可以使劲砍价，
呵呵
Why are carmakers stuffing dealers' lots with inventory?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/30/autos/channel-stuffing-cars.for
摘要： Jackson's worst fears have been realized: The industry is hooked.
Despite 2013 being the best year for auto sales since 2007, automakers
entered the year with nearly 3.5 million units of unsold stock and are
expected to build as many as 1.4 million additional light vehicles in the
month in January, traditionally a slow month for sales.
That's a lot of cars that haven't found retail customers. A forecast by
WardsAuto calls for the U.S. supply of unsold cars to rise to 90 days by the
end of the January, compared with 76 at the end of December. Sixty days is
usually considered normal.
Three years ago, Mike Jackson, chairman and CEO of AutoNation (AN, Fortune
500) warned about the return of an insidious industry practice that sapped
profits and complicated the lives of dealers: overproduction, or to use a
less euphemistic term, "channel stuffing."
"As the recovery takes hold," Jackson said at the Detroit auto show in
January 2011, "there will be a temptation to go back to a production-push
system." He went on: "Why? Because initially it feels good. It's like heroin
shot into the arm, feeling so good at first but being so destructive in the
long term."
Jackson's worst fears have been realized: The industry is hooked. Despite
2013 being the best year for auto sales since 2007, automakers entered the
year with nearly 3.5 million units of unsold stock and are expected to build
as many as 1.4 million additional light vehicles in the month in January,
traditionally a slow month for sales.
That's a lot of cars that haven't found retail customers. A forecast by
WardsAuto calls for the U.S. supply of unsold cars to rise to 90 days by the
end of the January, compared with 76 at the end of December. Sixty days is
usually considered normal.
Not surprisingly, Jackson, who runs America's largest chain of retailers, is
close to apoplectic. "Is this any way to run a business?" he railed at a
recent industry gathering. "Is this where we want to end up again?"
MORE: 2015 Honda Fit: The secret star of the Detroit auto show
Manufacturers usually point to the other guy when asked who's to blame for
rising inventories, but this time there's enough blame to spread around.
According to industry sources, General Motors (GM, Fortune 500)
significantly reduced its inventory in December compared to a year earlier
but still logged a steep 81-day supply. Ford (F, Fortune 500) stock was up
22% from January 2013, while Chrysler turned in its highest numbers since
December 2006.
Several Asian producers also looked guilty. Nissan was down slightly in
December but only after running up its highest ever stock in November, while
Hyundai's inventory climbed 36% year-over-year.
The good news is that thanks to low interest rates, dealer carrying costs
for all that inventory are unusually low, but finding parking space for
unsold cars can be problematic, and storing cars outdoors doesn't help their
salability. Dealers call the inevitable deterioration that occurs when cars
are parked out in the open "lot rot."
In the pre-bankruptcy era, domestic automakers continually overproduced
because selling the additional vehicles at discounted prices helped amortize
high fixed costs stemming from worker wages, benefits, and capital
equipment. The excess production went into rental fleet sales, which had the
effect of undermining residual values and cannibalizing retail sales when
the barely used cars were sold six months later.
Nissan's Frontier ad is 'deceptive'
Nissan's Frontier ad is 'deceptive'
To be fair, managing inventories is an inexact science. Automakers had
planned that December sales would run at an annual rate of 16 million
vehicles and were surprised when it was only 15.7 million. "The U.S.
industry right now, in my opinion, is at a stage when every major OEM is
doing everything it can to grab every tenth of a point of share," veteran
analyst Tom Libby of IHS Automotive points out, "and the last thing any of
them wants to do is not have the vehicles available."
But the inventory problem is even worse than it appears at first glance. As
Jackson argues, the days-supply benchmark understates the dimensions of the
overproduction because it includes fleet sales. If retail sales alone were
counted in inventory levels, the days supply would be 30% higher. He figures
that retail inventory today amounts to about 3.5 million units, a pile-up
of vehicles worth $100 billion that will take three to four months to
liquidate.
The big question is whether manufacturers will resort to profit-draining
incentives to move the excess product. Signs of artificial stimulus are
already showing up in year-end financial statements. Ford reported that its
operating margin in North America declined to 7.6% in the fourth quarter,
from 8.4% a year earlier. It spent 27% more on incentives in the fourth
quarter than a year ago, according to figures compiled by Kelley Blue Book
and reported in Automotive News.
MORE: How TrueCar won auto dealers over
Libby is optimistic about the future. "If the domestics didn't learn from
2009-10, when would they learn?" he told me. "I myself believe them when
they say they have learned to more closely match production with true retail
demand." But he warns, "I would say there is risk in that if one OEM
decides to build inventories and buy share through cutting prices with heavy
incentives, that action could trigger something wider that no one wants."
Jackson frames the issue in more dramatic terms. "2014 is going to be a test
, the first real test after four easy years of a million units of growth. Do
we really have the discipline to run this business in a rational way for
the long term?"
It won't be long before we know whether the grade is pass or fail.
Full disclosure: I've known Mike Jackson for many years. He wrote the
forward to my book Sixty to Zero published in 2010, and I have been
compensated by AutoNation for consulting work. To top of page |
G*****h
发帖数: 33134 | 2 这是显然的
到处 dealer 都停那么多车。。。
【在 w******z 的大作中提到】
: 根据CNN 如下报道， 美国汽车市场现在是供给远远大于需求， 大家可以使劲砍价，
: 呵呵
: Why are carmakers stuffing dealers' lots with inventory?
: http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/30/autos/channel-stuffing-cars.for
: 摘要： Jackson's worst fears have been realized: The industry is hooked.
: Despite 2013 being the best year for auto sales since 2007, automakers
: entered the year with nearly 3.5 million units of unsold stock and are
: expected to build as many as 1.4 million additional light vehicles in the
: month in January, traditionally a slow month for sales.
: That's a lot of cars that haven't found retail customers. A forecast by
|
w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 3 属实， 各个dealer那里现在都堆满了新车，
根据文章： 现在利率低， 所以dealer hold 很多车过长压力也不算太大， 但是压力
会逐渐增加，
【在 G*****h 的大作中提到】
: 这是显然的
: 到处 dealer 都停那么多车。。。
|
J*******i
发帖数: 3588 | |
w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 5 到一月底， 美国市场积压的没有卖出去的车， 足够三个月销售库存， 呵呵：
A forecast by
WardsAuto calls for the U.S. supply of unsold cars to rise to 90 days by
the
end of the January, compared with 76 at the end of December. Sixty days is
usually considered normal. |
b********6
发帖数: 35437 | 6 卖不出去自然不装b，如果降价不能导致利润上升，不如不降 |
w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 7 关键还是不同生产厂商不齐心， 有时候缺乏远视搞短期自杀式降价倾销行为，
不如我们这里的dealer 团结， 联合起来搞价格垄断同盟， 谁敢谁先放水， 其他厂
商会齐心协力搞死率先降价的， 一个车行你谈不下来， 去另外一个车行， 一样谈不
下来， 还互相通风报信， 告诉你一个眼镜男刚刚从我处出来， 正杀奔你行， 哈哈
【在 b********6 的大作中提到】
: 卖不出去自然不装b，如果降价不能导致利润上升，不如不降
|
l*******g
发帖数: 27064 | |
o****e
发帖数: 536 | 9 HONDA店里 13年的车还一堆呢。小市民EX 17000。 |
x**********i
发帖数: 4964 | |
|
|
w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 11 大一点的城市里面哪个地方dealer都这样，吃准你反正要在附近买车，所以联合起来不
降价， 搞价格联盟啊， 多从你身上割点肉对整个行业有好处， 哪个dealer敢廉价卖
， 其他车行肯定要联合起来搞他， dealer们都是鬼精鬼精的， 你要去找找鸟不拉
屎的农村dealer， 可能会稍微淳朴一下(只是概率上稍微可能好点， 总体上， dealer
这个行业， 呵呵， 不说也罢， 呵呵， good luck |
Y****a
发帖数: 17170 | 12
jeep是image相对特种的车，除非是自己的质量问题，否则受到市场周期的影响相对较
小。
subaru也是如此，08经济危机那么大的事情，都没有影响到subaru，就知道这种需求是
很厉害的。
我觉得明年subaru和jeep应该仍然都会很不错，而且今年全国性的大雪估计教育了不少
人要买四驱了。嘿嘿
其他的车厂不好说。 买车明后年是介入的好时候。
【在 x**********i 的大作中提到】
: jeep是特例么 感觉卖的都很硬
|
x**********i
发帖数: 4964 | 13 嗯 说的很有道理
【在 Y****a 的大作中提到】
:
: jeep是image相对特种的车，除非是自己的质量问题，否则受到市场周期的影响相对较
: 小。
: subaru也是如此，08经济危机那么大的事情，都没有影响到subaru，就知道这种需求是
: 很厉害的。
: 我觉得明年subaru和jeep应该仍然都会很不错，而且今年全国性的大雪估计教育了不少
: 人要买四驱了。嘿嘿
: 其他的车厂不好说。 买车明后年是介入的好时候。
|
Y****a
发帖数: 17170 | 14
我在08年就出手买了一辆车，dealer像孙子似的，可有意思了。
搞的我trade in 和买价 两边都占尽了便宜。反正一句不合，我就说不买了，经济危机
呀。 哈哈
【在 x**********i 的大作中提到】
: 嗯 说的很有道理
|
l*******g
发帖数: 27064 | 15 哇，比corolla le还便宜
【在 o****e 的大作中提到】
: HONDA店里 13年的车还一堆呢。小市民EX 17000。
|
l*******g
发帖数: 27064 | 16 没觉得，班里拿到5、6k甚至更多off的一大把
比丰田便宜多了
【在 x**********i 的大作中提到】
: jeep是特例么 感觉卖的都很硬
|
L*1
发帖数: 11537 | |
o****e
发帖数: 536 | 18 周末看看camry SE。希望2w能拿下。
【在 l*******g 的大作中提到】
: 哇，比corolla le还便宜
|
x**********i
发帖数: 4964 | 19 不错啊 哈哈 要有这好事 我现在也想trade in
【在 Y****a 的大作中提到】
:
: 我在08年就出手买了一辆车，dealer像孙子似的，可有意思了。
: 搞的我trade in 和买价 两边都占尽了便宜。反正一句不合，我就说不买了，经济危机
: 呀。 哈哈
|
Y****a
发帖数: 17170 | 20
再厉害的谈判技巧，都比不过交易时机，嘿嘿
【在 x**********i 的大作中提到】
: 不错啊 哈哈 要有这好事 我现在也想trade in
|
|
|
c****u
发帖数: 2029 | 21 现在的库存不算多,前几年库存比现在多多了.
由于销售在增长中,各大车厂都在加紧建设新工厂,报纸上已经开始担心等这些工厂造好
的时候会消化不了.但是没有一个厂家因为担心而不去建新工厂的,这就是资本主义的必
然性吧 . |
w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 22 下个月月底估计negotiate 的 power 更大， 跟dealer耗， 一定要巨耐心， 你沉住气
， 他就沉不住了， 你沉不住， 他就沉得住， 哈哈，
一定要广撒网， 精收鱼， 姜太公钓鱼， 愿者上钩， 可以方圆200mile以内撒网， 反
正网上回车键一敲， 网上没有距离 |
V*******5
发帖数: 842 | 23 什么年代了 谈价根本不去车行。去车行是去签字的。 price用email和电话搞定 连
trade-in的价格都能电话搞定 给个vin说个里程车况就行。
这么干半年内买了2俩新车了 每辆dealer全程呆40分钟
【在 w******z 的大作中提到】
: 关键还是不同生产厂商不齐心， 有时候缺乏远视搞短期自杀式降价倾销行为，
: 不如我们这里的dealer 团结， 联合起来搞价格垄断同盟， 谁敢谁先放水， 其他厂
: 商会齐心协力搞死率先降价的， 一个车行你谈不下来， 去另外一个车行， 一样谈不
: 下来， 还互相通风报信， 告诉你一个眼镜男刚刚从我处出来， 正杀奔你行， 哈哈
|
Y****a
发帖数: 17170 | 24
是的。我最近砍价也是一个电话就行了。 去车行就是去试车的。
【在 V*******5 的大作中提到】
: 什么年代了 谈价根本不去车行。去车行是去签字的。 price用email和电话搞定 连
: trade-in的价格都能电话搞定 给个vin说个里程车况就行。
: 这么干半年内买了2俩新车了 每辆dealer全程呆40分钟
|
T*U
发帖数: 22634 | 25 你开玩笑吧，15的车半年后就出来了。
【在 o****e 的大作中提到】
: HONDA店里 13年的车还一堆呢。小市民EX 17000。
|
o****e
发帖数: 536 | |
