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发帖数: 44 | 1 特斯拉电池寿命8到12年，resale value 很可悲啊
Bill, what eclipses the resale value is battery life and battery replacement
cost. Given that the battery life of the Panasonic 18650 is approx 8-12
years depending on how you drive it, the first beta users are coming up on
battery replacement. If they are lucky as some of my friends have been, the
battery fails under warranty. If it fails out of warranty, they own a brick
worth ZERO. Why zero, because the original replacement cost for a model S
battery pack as of a few years ago was $40K +. Panasonic has struggled
desperately to bring the cost down but they are constrained by resistance
matching all of the battery's in each module. Eventually, they will abandon
this strategy, but that doesn't help out those stuck with what they have as
Tesla has no plans to have backwards compatibility.
For those who counter my argument, I know many roaster owners who are soured
on their now worthless investment. This is manifest destiny but these facts
are disputed by paid Tesla trolls trying to counter anyone making this
point. In two years, battery chemistry will do its magic and my point will
be well understood. You can also look at the battery life in every battery
backup system available today including the power wall as the duty cycle in
emergency backup power is the least stressing on these batteries and under
ideal conditions, you can expect 12 years. In a car with the loads
experienced 8 years is pushing it. So my point is, buying a used Tesla that
is 5 or more years old is a fools errand.
比尔，使转售价值黯然失色的是电池寿命和电池更换成本。鉴于Panasonic 18650的电
池寿命大约为8-12年，具体取决于您的驱动方式，因此第一个Beta版用户将开始更换电
池。如果像我的一些朋友一样幸运，那么电池在保修期内会发生故障。如果超出保修范
围，他们将拥有一块价值零的砖头。为什么为零，因为几年前Model S电池组的原始更
换成本为$ 40K +。松下竭尽全力地降低成本，但是它们受到每个模块中所有电池的电
阻匹配的限制。最终，他们将放弃这一策略，但这并没有帮助那些固守己有的人，因为
特斯拉没有向后兼容的计划。
对于那些反对我的观点的人，我知道许多焙烧炉所有者对他们现在毫无价值的投资感到
沮丧。这显然是命运，但这些事实被带薪的特斯拉巨魔争辩，试图反驳任何提出这一点
的人。两年后，电池化学将发挥其神奇作用，我的观点将被很好地理解。您还可以查看
当今每个可用的备用电池系统（包括电源墙）的电池寿命，因为应急备用电源的占空比
对这些电池的压力最小，在理想条件下，您可以预期使用12年。在拥有8年负载的汽车
中，它一直在推动着它。因此，我的观点是，购买5年或5年以上的二手特斯拉是愚蠢的
事情。 | s*m
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