g*****e 发帖数: 1301 | |
a********l 发帖数: 39524 | 2 a mammoth contract people actually think makes some sense |
M******k 发帖数: 27573 | |
s***o 发帖数: 2191 | 4 真有钱啊。
Kershaw会不会躺在钞票上先玩几年再说 |
k******i 发帖数: 5774 | 5 应该不会,去年季后赛最后一场实在丢人
今年希望化悲愤为力量,球队前景不错
【在 s***o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 真有钱啊。 : Kershaw会不会躺在钞票上先玩几年再说
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g*****e 发帖数: 1301 | 6 恩, 最好的投手,而且才25岁
【在 a********l 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : a mammoth contract people actually think makes some sense
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n*******e 发帖数: 2213 | 7 still, this is a humongous contract.
Is Kershaw good? Of coz. Is he worth 30M a year for 7 years? Maybe.
The ongoing rate for per WAR is about 5 million. This means that Kershaw has
to perform at or above 43 WAR over 7 years to make this an even contract.
His WAR over the last four years is 4.5, 6.6, 5.4, and 6.5 according to
FanGraph. Basically, it says that he has to consistently perform at last
three year's level (2 CYs). I just do not see how this can happen.
【在 g*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 恩, 最好的投手,而且才25岁
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g*****e 发帖数: 1301 | 8 版主科普下WAR吧...
has
【在 n*******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : still, this is a humongous contract. : Is Kershaw good? Of coz. Is he worth 30M a year for 7 years? Maybe. : The ongoing rate for per WAR is about 5 million. This means that Kershaw has : to perform at or above 43 WAR over 7 years to make this an even contract. : His WAR over the last four years is 4.5, 6.6, 5.4, and 6.5 according to : FanGraph. Basically, it says that he has to consistently perform at last : three year's level (2 CYs). I just do not see how this can happen.
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n*******e 发帖数: 2213 | 9 win above replacement level.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
【在 g*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 版主科普下WAR吧... : : has
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a***n 发帖数: 5665 | 10 比Cliff Lee当年的工资也不高多少啊,而且Kershaw年轻多了。对于他们这个层次的球
员我觉得不能简单这么算。一两个WAR的球员不难找,Kershaw, Verlander这样的就此
一家。
has
【在 n*******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : still, this is a humongous contract. : Is Kershaw good? Of coz. Is he worth 30M a year for 7 years? Maybe. : The ongoing rate for per WAR is about 5 million. This means that Kershaw has : to perform at or above 43 WAR over 7 years to make this an even contract. : His WAR over the last four years is 4.5, 6.6, 5.4, and 6.5 according to : FanGraph. Basically, it says that he has to consistently perform at last : three year's level (2 CYs). I just do not see how this can happen.
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l*****a 发帖数: 3630 | 11 btw,for pitchers, we usually use fangraphs WAR (fWAR)
and for fielders, maybe the Baseball reference(rWAR) is more common.
In general, fielders rWAR is usually less than fWAR.
【在 n*******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : win above replacement level. : http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
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a********l 发帖数: 39524 | 12 really no one should be worth that kind of money, especially someone who
plays once every 5 games.
has
【在 n*******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : still, this is a humongous contract. : Is Kershaw good? Of coz. Is he worth 30M a year for 7 years? Maybe. : The ongoing rate for per WAR is about 5 million. This means that Kershaw has : to perform at or above 43 WAR over 7 years to make this an even contract. : His WAR over the last four years is 4.5, 6.6, 5.4, and 6.5 according to : FanGraph. Basically, it says that he has to consistently perform at last : three year's level (2 CYs). I just do not see how this can happen.
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l*****a 发帖数: 3630 | 13 The important fact is Elite pitchers seldom appear as free agent(FA).
Most of the time,even you wish to pay more than $20/y for an Ace starter,
you can not find it in FA.
Over the last 4 years, only two elite starters show in FA, which are Cliff
Lee and Zack Greinke. Most Ace staff pitchers has been locked by home team
before they reach to FA: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw,
Cole Hamels, Matt Cain...
That is the market of FA for elite pitchers and that is why Kershaw is worth
for this money.
【在 a********l 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : really no one should be worth that kind of money, especially someone who : plays once every 5 games. : : has
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k******i 发帖数: 5774 | 14 Thanks for the input,
good to know so many names
Hope it will help my 2014 fantasy pitcher team
:p
Kershaw,
worth
【在 l*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : The important fact is Elite pitchers seldom appear as free agent(FA). : Most of the time,even you wish to pay more than $20/y for an Ace starter, : you can not find it in FA. : Over the last 4 years, only two elite starters show in FA, which are Cliff : Lee and Zack Greinke. Most Ace staff pitchers has been locked by home team : before they reach to FA: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, : Cole Hamels, Matt Cain... : That is the market of FA for elite pitchers and that is why Kershaw is worth : for this money.
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s***o 发帖数: 2191 | 15 各家对ACE都攥得很紧。
都说季后赛是由投手决定的。除了当年的Johnson/Schilling组合,其他我倒是没有太
强烈感受到。
Kershaw,
worth
【在 l*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : The important fact is Elite pitchers seldom appear as free agent(FA). : Most of the time,even you wish to pay more than $20/y for an Ace starter, : you can not find it in FA. : Over the last 4 years, only two elite starters show in FA, which are Cliff : Lee and Zack Greinke. Most Ace staff pitchers has been locked by home team : before they reach to FA: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, : Cole Hamels, Matt Cain... : That is the market of FA for elite pitchers and that is why Kershaw is worth : for this money.
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A**d 发帖数: 13310 | 16 今年红袜4-2赢,Lester就搞了两场。ALCS虽然Lester输了第一场0:1,
但是大比分2:2时候在客场赢了第五场。去年决赛号称强棒如云的Rangers
四场一共就没在巨人SP身上得几分,你说投手用处大不大?
【在 s***o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 各家对ACE都攥得很紧。 : 都说季后赛是由投手决定的。除了当年的Johnson/Schilling组合,其他我倒是没有太 : 强烈感受到。 : : Kershaw, : worth
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z******n 发帖数: 1223 | 17 我想正因为投手的关系很大,导致没人能预测特定的一个乃至一群声名显赫的投手能否
在特
定的一年get it done。
即使后来进了名人堂的,也可能一球断送本队(1988WS Dennis Eckersley在GM1放给
Gibson一个再见HR,几十年过去大家都说整个系列赛的走势都由那个球定了)
90年代的Braves已经两个首投名人堂,Smoltz未来也应该进,但他们仨只赢过一届WS。
而很重要的原因恰恰是被BBWAA投票抛弃了的Jack Morris在1991年投的更好(第七场
Smoltz坚持八局不丢分,最后还是0:1输给了十局不丢分的Morris)
在成名的Ace身上投大钱是风险很大的:扬基的CC至少还拿了一冠,Phillies赢了WS之
后几年内拉来Pedro、Lee、Doc、Oswalt结果季后赛一年退一步还把农场搞坏了。
虽如此,还是有很多队采取这个策略,因为这种人闪光个一次季后赛就可能拿下,如
Lackey。
Schilling在电台曰:他老现在变成自己年轻时痛恨的老球员了,看大合同不顺眼,但
他还是忍不住想如果Randy Johnson巅峰期赶上现在的市场得拿多大的合同。
其实也不必这么纠结,大家也都是赌个概率而已。强如Johnson和Pedro,戒指也只是每
人一个,还都是有他Schilling帮着才拿的。
【在 s***o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 各家对ACE都攥得很紧。 : 都说季后赛是由投手决定的。除了当年的Johnson/Schilling组合,其他我倒是没有太 : 强烈感受到。 : : Kershaw, : worth
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K**7 发帖数: 6610 | 18 棒球的不确定性太大
大家花钱买的是概率
我更欣赏农场健康的球队
就算不能给球队赢来冠军
也能给球队赚不少钱
【在 z******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我想正因为投手的关系很大,导致没人能预测特定的一个乃至一群声名显赫的投手能否 : 在特 : 定的一年get it done。 : 即使后来进了名人堂的,也可能一球断送本队(1988WS Dennis Eckersley在GM1放给 : Gibson一个再见HR,几十年过去大家都说整个系列赛的走势都由那个球定了) : 90年代的Braves已经两个首投名人堂,Smoltz未来也应该进,但他们仨只赢过一届WS。 : 而很重要的原因恰恰是被BBWAA投票抛弃了的Jack Morris在1991年投的更好(第七场 : Smoltz坚持八局不丢分,最后还是0:1输给了十局不丢分的Morris) : 在成名的Ace身上投大钱是风险很大的:扬基的CC至少还拿了一冠,Phillies赢了WS之 : 后几年内拉来Pedro、Lee、Doc、Oswalt结果季后赛一年退一步还把农场搞坏了。
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l*****a 发帖数: 3630 | 19 其实Ace投手季后赛影响也很大的。
除了01年的左右门神,03年Beckett一夫当关,05年白袜四大先发,08年Hamels,10年
巨人先发,11年的Chris Carpenter,几乎都在WS有举足轻重的作用。
但棒球是团队运动,一两个人发挥再强作用也远比NBA中James小多了。
【在 s***o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 各家对ACE都攥得很紧。 : 都说季后赛是由投手决定的。除了当年的Johnson/Schilling组合,其他我倒是没有太 : 强烈感受到。 : : Kershaw, : worth
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l*****a 发帖数: 3630 | 20 Phillies的失败不能怪投手。
从蓝鸟挖来Doc, Doc除了13年受伤投很差,其他几年都是Ace的水准。
Lee签了大合约,但合约目前这几年的也很好。Hamels是自己培养的球队的脸,目前看
大合约也算合理。
Phillies真正的悲剧是野手投资太差。续约很多状态下滑的老将,Utley, Rollins.
外野一直很烂,曾经的BA top 3新秀Domonic Brown也没养成预期水平。更不用说过去2
年拿了$40M的Ryan Howard,他这两年的WAR值加起来是-0.5...
【在 z******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我想正因为投手的关系很大,导致没人能预测特定的一个乃至一群声名显赫的投手能否 : 在特 : 定的一年get it done。 : 即使后来进了名人堂的,也可能一球断送本队(1988WS Dennis Eckersley在GM1放给 : Gibson一个再见HR,几十年过去大家都说整个系列赛的走势都由那个球定了) : 90年代的Braves已经两个首投名人堂,Smoltz未来也应该进,但他们仨只赢过一届WS。 : 而很重要的原因恰恰是被BBWAA投票抛弃了的Jack Morris在1991年投的更好(第七场 : Smoltz坚持八局不丢分,最后还是0:1输给了十局不丢分的Morris) : 在成名的Ace身上投大钱是风险很大的:扬基的CC至少还拿了一冠,Phillies赢了WS之 : 后几年内拉来Pedro、Lee、Doc、Oswalt结果季后赛一年退一步还把农场搞坏了。
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M******k 发帖数: 27573 | 21 victorino怎么放走了。。。。。
去2
【在 l*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Phillies的失败不能怪投手。 : 从蓝鸟挖来Doc, Doc除了13年受伤投很差,其他几年都是Ace的水准。 : Lee签了大合约,但合约目前这几年的也很好。Hamels是自己培养的球队的脸,目前看 : 大合约也算合理。 : Phillies真正的悲剧是野手投资太差。续约很多状态下滑的老将,Utley, Rollins. : 外野一直很烂,曾经的BA top 3新秀Domonic Brown也没养成预期水平。更不用说过去2 : 年拿了$40M的Ryan Howard,他这两年的WAR值加起来是-0.5...
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K**7 发帖数: 6610 | 22 因为有了Brown
【在 M******k 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : victorino怎么放走了。。。。。 : : 去2
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n*******e 发帖数: 2213 | 23 Brown is not the only reason.
Victorino is undervalued by the Phillies. He does not hit for much power,
and his contract year did not go well. Still, he has integrity, has speed,
and plays a GG RF/CF. These are all valuable assets.
I am glad that he won a 2nd WS title with the RSox.
【在 K**7 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 因为有了Brown
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g*****e 发帖数: 1301 | 24 Dodgers又盯上tanaka了
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 今年红袜4-2赢,Lester就搞了两场。ALCS虽然Lester输了第一场0:1, : 但是大比分2:2时候在客场赢了第五场。去年决赛号称强棒如云的Rangers : 四场一共就没在巨人SP身上得几分,你说投手用处大不大?
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a********l 发帖数: 39524 | 25 不会是第一次听说他们吧?
【在 k******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Thanks for the input, : good to know so many names : Hope it will help my 2014 fantasy pitcher team : :p : : Kershaw, : worth
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k******i 发帖数: 5774 | 26 知道DET那个投手
Kershaw也是上个赛季季后赛才知道
其实Kershaw的动作我觉得蛮奇怪的
中间会突然停一下的感觉
【在 a********l 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 不会是第一次听说他们吧?
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M******k 发帖数: 27573 | 27 好!
【在 g*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Dodgers又盯上tanaka了
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i*f 发帖数: 85 | 28 Cain还不能跟其它几个相提并论。。。
Kershaw,
worth
【在 l*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : The important fact is Elite pitchers seldom appear as free agent(FA). : Most of the time,even you wish to pay more than $20/y for an Ace starter, : you can not find it in FA. : Over the last 4 years, only two elite starters show in FA, which are Cliff : Lee and Zack Greinke. Most Ace staff pitchers has been locked by home team : before they reach to FA: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, : Cole Hamels, Matt Cain... : That is the market of FA for elite pitchers and that is why Kershaw is worth : for this money.
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l*****a 发帖数: 3630 | 29 Cain does not have a peak or very elite year. However, he is very durable
and very stable. His career ERA or ERA+ definitely defines a No. 1 starter.
【在 i*f 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Cain还不能跟其它几个相提并论。。。 : : Kershaw, : worth
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