l*****9
发帖数: 9501 | 1 What to make of Jeremy Lin
By Andrew Mooney, Boston.com Correspondent
On Feb. 9, John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Ratings on espn.com displayed
one very curious entry. There, sandwiched at number two between Lebron
James and Kevin Durant was…Jeremy Lin?
It’s been 12 days since the basketball world was first caught up in the
throes of “Linsanity,” as Jeremy came off the bench to torch the Nets for
25 points and seven assists. In his next four games, starting for the first
time, Lin scored 109 points and effectively revitalized the floundering,
injury-ridden Knicks’ season. Predictably, a host of terrible puns,
nicknames, and general Internet absurdity soon followed. For a moment, I
almost missed Tebow.
For my part, I’ve regarded Linsanity with a more tempered eye (despite his
excellent choice of undergraduate institution). This sports year has already
seen one Harvard grad burst suddenly into prominence after an otherwise
nondescript career, and as we’re now aware, Mr. Ryan Fitzpatrick found it
quite difficult to sustain his lightning start. Will Lin have a similar
regression? Let’s dig into his past to find any clues that might tip us off
to his true ability.
Lin’s first NBA experience came with the Golden State Warriors, signing as
an undrafted free agent after a stellar senior year with the Crimson. At
Golden State, Lin was an entirely unremarkable bench player. His primary
problem was getting on the court; he appeared in only 29 contests, averaging
just 9.8 minutes per game. Yet even that number was inflated by extended
spells of garbage time. Lin played more than 10 minutes in only 13 games,
and the average margin of victory in those games was 15.9 points. As such,
it’s hard to draw many conclusions from this period. He rarely played, and
when he did, it was often when the game’s result was no longer in doubt and
, thus, not really representative of true NBA competition.
Lin spent the remainder of 2010-11 with the NBDL’s Reno Bighorns, and it
was here that he showed flashes of the skills we’ve seen over the past week
. Over 20 games for the Bighorns, Lin averaged 18.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.
4 assists, and 2.1 steals, while playing 31.8 minutes per game. As Matt
Kamalsky of Draft Express noted at the time, Lin was “extremely tough
around the basket and show[ed] a very good understanding of … how to use
screens and subtle changes of direction to turn the corner off the dribble.
Lin won't land on a highlight reel any time soon, but he gets the job done
in the D-League.”
While a generally positive assessment, it certainly doesn’t scream of
potential NBA stardom. So what changed?
First, the toughness around the rim alluded to by Kamalsky has only
increased. Lin has consistently displayed an ability to finish at the basket
throughout his career. With the Warriors, Lin converted 58.1 percent of his
attempts around the rim. This year, with the Knicks, he has boosted that
number to 63.3 percent.
The main weakness in Lin’s game was his inability to knock down midrange
jumpers. This was something about which Kamalsky expressed concern in his
assessment of Lin’s D-League stint: “he'll need to become a reliable set
shooter to give himself more staying power in the NBA.” And for good reason
; in Golden State, he shot just 25 percent from 10-15 feet and 27 percent
from 16-23 feet. As anyone who is familiar with Rajon Rondo’s career can
tell you, this is particularly damaging for a pick-and-roll point guard who
prefers to get into the lane. Defenses are perfectly content to allow those
shot attempts if the guard can’t knock them down.
Yet, with the Knicks, knock them down he has. From 10-15 feet, Lin’s field
goal percentage has improved to 55.6 percent, and from 16-23 feet, it’s all
the way up to 63 percent.
What accounts for this improvement? Maybe, to quote Glenda the Good Witch,
he’s “had it all along.” For one, he simply didn’t (and still doesn’t,
really) have enough shot attempts in his first NBA go-around from which to
draw any firm conclusions about his game. His poor shooting with Golden
State could have been a fluke, and the improved numbers we’ve seen from Lin
this season might be more indicative of his true ability.
Or perhaps he worked tirelessly on his game during the offseason and lockout
, priming himself for one more shot at the pros. Personally, I’m more
inclined toward this second explanation. In responding to his recent success
, the one sentiment expressed universally by his former teammates at Harvard
has been his extraordinary commitment to hard work. The unconventional form
on his jumper also suggests that he’s never been a natural shooter, but
with enough practice, he may have found a method that’s effective, if not
pretty.
For now, Linsanity continues unchecked. But this week promises a couple new
wrinkles in the Lin saga: notably, the reinsertion of Amare Stoudemire and
Carmelo Anthony into the lineup. How will Lin coexist with the Knicks’ two
biggest stars? Can he prevent the offense from devolving into the dual black
hole attack it was a few weeks ago, with Anthony and Stoudemire jacking up
shot after shot? I’ll be interested to see what happens to Lin’s own
production. He won’t remain the focus of the offense, but he’ll get his
looks. Can he continue to knock down open shots, as defenses rotate toward
the Knicks’ two elite offensive players? Stay tuned; or, if you'd rather
not, steer clear of the Internet for the next few days. | s******3
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