g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 1 7C
北：CQ9 SQxxx HAKT9x DAx
南：CAKTxxxxx SA HJx DQx
西首攻D2. 最简单的：飞红心，50%。还有办法提高概率吗？ | z****k
发帖数: 1057 | 2 桌上出C9, 如果都跟出，打H3-3，手上大牌王吃
真的要飞也飞D，大比赛的时候，less regret if it's a wrong decision
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: 7C
: 北：CQ9 SQxxx HAKT9x DAx
: 南：CAKTxxxxx SA HJx DQx
: 西首攻D2. 最简单的：飞红心，50%。还有办法提高概率吗？
| g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 3 1.首攻D, 不可能飞D, 西家要是不疯，不太可能从Kxxx攻出。
2.H 3-3概率小于50%，为什么打3-3? 4-2也可能成，但是就要看将牌分布了。加起来好
象概率还是小于50%. | c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 4 DA, draw trumps, SA, HJ to HK, S ruff, if HQ and SK didn't fall,
you can draw a lot of trumps and watch how they discard.
The end game is like:
SQ HKT
Hx DQ CT
when you play CT, if west huddles and pitches a D, you can pitch SQ,
east may be under pressure and give up his D guard as well,
then you may make it when
west holds SK, or when east holds SK, CK and DQ.
If west discards a lot of spades without problems, you may have to relie
on the H finesse later. Or if you find east has some problems,
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: 7C
: 北：CQ9 SQxxx HAKT9x DAx
: 南：CAKTxxxxx SA HJx DQx
: 西首攻D2. 最简单的：飞红心，50%。还有办法提高概率吗？
| g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 5 good point, that means if read defense correct, you can always make this 7C. | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 6 假定DK在东家。DA之后SA，王牌到CQ，将吃黑桃。吊光将牌，HJ到HA，将吃第三张黑桃
。如果SK还没掉下来，就连拔王牌。只要西家持SK，就是一个双挤。东家持SKxx时也能
做成。或是西家黑桃小于三张（也就是已知双挤不成立），红心最后仍可一飞。概率远
大于简单红心一飞的50%。
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: 7C
: 北：CQ9 SQxxx HAKT9x DAx
: 南：CAKTxxxxx SA HJx DQx
: 西首攻D2. 最简单的：飞红心，50%。还有办法提高概率吗？
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 7 Yes. But against expert defenders who foresee the problem earlier, you may
not able to read the cards with 100% certainty. Still, playing for the
combined chance of squeeze and either defender having SKxx, that is a much
better line than simple H finesse.
7C.
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: good point, that means if read defense correct, you can always make this 7C.
| e****0
发帖数: 37 | 8 good
【在 c****u 的大作中提到】
: DA, draw trumps, SA, HJ to HK, S ruff, if HQ and SK didn't fall,
: you can draw a lot of trumps and watch how they discard.
: The end game is like:
: SQ HKT
: Hx DQ CT
: when you play CT, if west huddles and pitches a D, you can pitch SQ,
: east may be under pressure and give up his D guard as well,
: then you may make it when
: west holds SK, or when east holds SK, CK and DQ.
: If west discards a lot of spades without problems, you may have to relie
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