o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 1 施豪军防守4H，非常漂亮的首攻
KT72
2
A9653
543
首攻C3
桌上
J93
K8653
Q2
J86
桌上放小，连老板的7，庄家Q
庄家长考后，小方块
施豪军长考后，跳上A，有什么道理吗？
明手3张草花，怎么都不会被投入吧？
庄家手上
A85
AQT94
J84
AQ | p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 2 难道不是怎么都要宕的牌吗？
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 施豪军防守4H，非常漂亮的首攻
: KT72
: 2
: A9653
: 543
: 首攻C3
: 桌上
: J93
: K8653
: Q2
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 3 叫牌是怎样的？如果确知庄家至少５张将牌，那么确无必要。如果庄家可能只有四张红
心，跳Ａ还是可以理解的。 | a****s
发帖数: 524 | 4 perhaps I am confused by the formatting of text,
Aren't there 4 top losers?
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 施豪军防守4H，非常漂亮的首攻
: KT72
: 2
: A9653
: 543
: 首攻C3
: 桌上
: J93
: K8653
: Q2
| o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 5 好像我写错了，庄家是黑心A，不是Q
黑心、方块两个冻结套
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: 难道不是怎么都要宕的牌吗？
| o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 6 黑心A，不是黑心Q
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: perhaps I am confused by the formatting of text,
: Aren't there 4 top losers?
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 7 I checked the hand record, declarer held SA8x.
Actually Shi's defense makes a lot of sense if declarer holds something like
Ax AQTxx JTx AQ2.
Lian can certainly play low on the first trick to clearify the situation in
clubs. However, he doesn't really know whether partner holds CQ or not. if
Partner holds CQ, playing low would look quite silly. (Although declarer's
failure to insert C8 to play the leader for CQT9xx or KT9xx may suggest that
he is likely to hold CAQ. )
So I think it's quite unlucky that defenders didn't find the best defense to
beat 4H. Also, I think both rooms should bid 4H anyway.
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 施豪军防守4H，非常漂亮的首攻
: KT72
: 2
: A9653
: 543
: 首攻C3
: 桌上
: J93
: K8653
: Q2
| o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 8 另一桌对方争叫了2D
侯勖downgrade了自己的牌，邀叫，石淼就没上
like
in
that
to
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: I checked the hand record, declarer held SA8x.
: Actually Shi's defense makes a lot of sense if declarer holds something like
: Ax AQTxx JTx AQ2.
: Lian can certainly play low on the first trick to clearify the situation in
: clubs. However, he doesn't really know whether partner holds CQ or not. if
: Partner holds CQ, playing low would look quite silly. (Although declarer's
: failure to insert C8 to play the leader for CQT9xx or KT9xx may suggest that
: he is likely to hold CAQ. )
: So I think it's quite unlucky that defenders didn't find the best defense to
: beat 4H. Also, I think both rooms should bid 4H anyway.
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 9 跟明手出不出８没关系。连的梅花是ＫＴ９７ｘ，出Ｋ不可能对吧。
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: I checked the hand record, declarer held SA8x.
: Actually Shi's defense makes a lot of sense if declarer holds something like
: Ax AQTxx JTx AQ2.
: Lian can certainly play low on the first trick to clearify the situation in
: clubs. However, he doesn't really know whether partner holds CQ or not. if
: Partner holds CQ, playing low would look quite silly. (Although declarer's
: failure to insert C8 to play the leader for CQT9xx or KT9xx may suggest that
: he is likely to hold CAQ. )
: So I think it's quite unlucky that defenders didn't find the best defense to
: beat 4H. Also, I think both rooms should bid 4H anyway.
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 10 You didn't get my point. Suppose declarer holds CAx, the correct play would
be C8 to play the opening leader to lead low from KT9xx or QT9xx to set up a
club. Therefore, a low club usually denies that holding.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: 跟明手出不出８没关系。连的梅花是ＫＴ９７ｘ，出Ｋ不可能对吧。
| | | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 11 Yes, sometimes it may affect what Lian should play, but not this time.
From Shi's perspective, he already knew declarer had AQ. The question is
whether declarer had AQ tight or AQx. Not sure the failure to play C8 would
lead to any clear conclusion.
BTW, from KT9xx/QT9xx, people lead small?
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: You didn't get my point. Suppose declarer holds CAx, the correct play would
: be C8 to play the opening leader to lead low from KT9xx or QT9xx to set up a
: club. Therefore, a low club usually denies that holding.
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 12 As long as you lead low once out of 100 times from KT9xx, it is still
correct to play 8. Of course, it's not a clear situation. Bridge is often
not a clear situation. Those who can guess correctly more would have an edge
. Such kind of small hints sometimes can offer you a quite big edge.
would
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Yes, sometimes it may affect what Lian should play, but not this time.
: From Shi's perspective, he already knew declarer had AQ. The question is
: whether declarer had AQ tight or AQx. Not sure the failure to play C8 would
: lead to any clear conclusion.
: BTW, from KT9xx/QT9xx, people lead small?
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 13 Right. But those small/unclear hints are to be used only when you have very
close decisions to make. They help as tie-breaker.
In this case, playing DA is only right when: 1) declarer has exactly AQ2 in
clubs; 2) declarer has exactly JTx in diamonds; 3) declarer has SA. It can
be right, but low percentage. Many times, defense is not 100%, you have to
choose the best line, just like declarer play. Jumping DA is not the best
line IMO.
Again, I am assuming that declarer already showed 5 or more hearts. If
declarer can have only 4, the whole odds shift.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: As long as you lead low once out of 100 times from KT9xx, it is still
: correct to play 8. Of course, it's not a clear situation. Bridge is often
: not a clear situation. Those who can guess correctly more would have an edge
: . Such kind of small hints sometimes can offer you a quite big edge.
:
: would
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 14 Of course DA is a low percentage play, not a no win play though. Players
like Shi Haojun seldom make no win plays. From the percentage and from the
small hints like C6, Shi should probably figure out that DA is not as good
as D x. Still, in a bridge match, such kind of mistakes just happen all the
times.
On the first day, Justin Lall didn't find the important H switch and
allowed 5C x to make, which is probably a more fundamental mistake.
very
in
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Right. But those small/unclear hints are to be used only when you have very
: close decisions to make. They help as tie-breaker.
: In this case, playing DA is only right when: 1) declarer has exactly AQ2 in
: clubs; 2) declarer has exactly JTx in diamonds; 3) declarer has SA. It can
: be right, but low percentage. Many times, defense is not 100%, you have to
: choose the best line, just like declarer play. Jumping DA is not the best
: line IMO.
: Again, I am assuming that declarer already showed 5 or more hearts. If
: declarer can have only 4, the whole odds shift.
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 15 没有叫牌过程，那就只好假设是双明手咯。
这个我会打。
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 黑心A，不是黑心Q
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 16 This is an interesting hand. Justin Lall played 4S, holding
J93
K8653
Q2
J86
dummy is:
A85
AQT94
J84
AQ
The lead was low S to SK and club switch.
The best line would be: draw HA, HQ, CA, HT to HK, ruff CJ with H9, then
play H4 and over take with H5, and the last H Here comes a very interesting
end game:
both defenders had to keep two spades. So they have to let go D.
Now you can play a D to throw them in and enjoy two spades in the end.
In reality, he didn't find this line and went down 1.
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: 没有叫牌过程，那就只好假设是双明手咯。
: 这个我会打。
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 17 Hmm, I thought it was Liu Jin who continued with SK and allowed 5CX to make.
.. Justin made the same mistake? That was indeed a no-win defense.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: Of course DA is a low percentage play, not a no win play though. Players
: like Shi Haojun seldom make no win plays. From the percentage and from the
: small hints like C6, Shi should probably figure out that DA is not as good
: as D x. Still, in a bridge match, such kind of mistakes just happen all the
: times.
: On the first day, Justin Lall didn't find the important H switch and
: allowed 5C x to make, which is probably a more fundamental mistake.
:
: very
: in
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 18 Very neat. It requires LHO to have S10 and RHO to hold SQ, but there is a
good chance for this to happen. Losing a spade trick earlier is also
important. Has there been studies for this specific type of squeeze?
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: This is an interesting hand. Justin Lall played 4S, holding
: J93
: K8653
: Q2
: J86
: dummy is:
: A85
: AQT94
: J84
: AQ
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 19 Is there a bidding available at all?
like
in
that
to
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: I checked the hand record, declarer held SA8x.
: Actually Shi's defense makes a lot of sense if declarer holds something like
: Ax AQTxx JTx AQ2.
: Lian can certainly play low on the first trick to clearify the situation in
: clubs. However, he doesn't really know whether partner holds CQ or not. if
: Partner holds CQ, playing low would look quite silly. (Although declarer's
: failure to insert C8 to play the leader for CQT9xx or KT9xx may suggest that
: he is likely to hold CAQ. )
: So I think it's quite unlucky that defenders didn't find the best defense to
: beat 4H. Also, I think both rooms should bid 4H anyway.
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 20 Low-percentage play is basically just wrong play. It has a chance to succeed
, but the chance is not good. Just like, if you are declarer and you have
JT9x in your hand, AQxx in dummy, your percentage play is to finesse. If you
just play to A, it is not no-win play, you may drop singleton K, but it is
wrong to play like that, unless you have extra information to suspect
singleton K behind.
Of course we all make mistakes, but a mistake is still a mistake, not
something "unlucky".
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: Of course DA is a low percentage play, not a no win play though. Players
: like Shi Haojun seldom make no win plays. From the percentage and from the
: small hints like C6, Shi should probably figure out that DA is not as good
: as D x. Still, in a bridge match, such kind of mistakes just happen all the
: times.
: On the first day, Justin Lall didn't find the important H switch and
: allowed 5C x to make, which is probably a more fundamental mistake.
:
: very
: in
| | | o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 21 1N - 2D
3H - 4H
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: Is there a bidding available at all?
:
: like
: in
: that
: to
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 22 This is not a easy problem to solve at the table.
But again, IMHO, It's more of a inference problem than a percentage one.
If the declarer held C AQ2,and had played low in dummy on the first trick, presumably going to play King on his right.
Now if he also had D JTx, would he lead a small diamond from his hand?
Of course not. he'd have surely led the Queen from dummy to induce a cover
of King.
succeed
you
is
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Low-percentage play is basically just wrong play. It has a chance to succeed
: , but the chance is not good. Just like, if you are declarer and you have
: JT9x in your hand, AQxx in dummy, your percentage play is to finesse. If you
: just play to A, it is not no-win play, you may drop singleton K, but it is
: wrong to play like that, unless you have extra information to suspect
: singleton K behind.
: Of course we all make mistakes, but a mistake is still a mistake, not
: something "unlucky".
| o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 23 顺便也贴下石/侯的叫牌进程
1C (1D) x (2D)
2H - 3H //
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 1N - 2D
: 3H - 4H
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 24 有些太保守了吧，IMP有局方，这样叫牌不是取胜之道。
已知5-5配，况且同伴还更有可能是非均型牌。
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 顺便也贴下石/侯的叫牌进程
: 1C (1D) x (2D)
: 2H - 3H //
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 25 This is a quite well studied situation, so called double squeeze in two
suits. I think I first read it in blue team and bridge.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Very neat. It requires LHO to have S10 and RHO to hold SQ, but there is a
: good chance for this to happen. Losing a spade trick earlier is also
: important. Has there been studies for this specific type of squeeze?
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 26 Making a mistake is unlucky. IMO, losing 100 IMPs in one session is very
very unlucky.
succeed
you
is
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Low-percentage play is basically just wrong play. It has a chance to succeed
: , but the chance is not good. Just like, if you are declarer and you have
: JT9x in your hand, AQxx in dummy, your percentage play is to finesse. If you
: just play to A, it is not no-win play, you may drop singleton K, but it is
: wrong to play like that, unless you have extra information to suspect
: singleton K behind.
: Of course we all make mistakes, but a mistake is still a mistake, not
: something "unlucky".
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 27 This is also a sound argument. Bridge is never a very easy game and anybody
may go wrong here and there.
presumably going to play King on his right.
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: This is not a easy problem to solve at the table.
: But again, IMHO, It's more of a inference problem than a percentage one.
: If the declarer held C AQ2,and had played low in dummy on the first trick, presumably going to play King on his right.
: Now if he also had D JTx, would he lead a small diamond from his hand?
: Of course not. he'd have surely led the Queen from dummy to induce a cover
: of King.
:
: succeed
: you
: is
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 28 I think declarer should play C8 at trick 1 anyway, even when holding AQ
tight. But anyway that is not the point of discussion.
For the play of D, I think if declarer had JTx, it is still normal to lead a
low diamond from his hand. The reason is that declarer cannot be sure about
the location of CK. For all he knows, the opening leader may have CK. Then
playing low D from hand may induce LHO to jump DK, which is exactly what he
wants.
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: This is not a easy problem to solve at the table.
: But again, IMHO, It's more of a inference problem than a percentage one.
: If the declarer held C AQ2,and had played low in dummy on the first trick, presumably going to play King on his right.
: Now if he also had D JTx, would he lead a small diamond from his hand?
: Of course not. he'd have surely led the Queen from dummy to induce a cover
: of King.
:
: succeed
: you
: is
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 29 Yeah, unlucky that the mistake caused a game swing. Sometimes bigger
mistakes only cause overtricks in part-score.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: Making a mistake is unlucky. IMO, losing 100 IMPs in one session is very
: very unlucky.
:
: succeed
: you
: is
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 30 That's why I kept asking for the bidding.
As declarer opened strong NT then simply transferred and raised to 4H,
nobody would lead low from K empty. would you?
As he didn't lead DQ from dummy, it's a strong evidence he didn't have JTx in hand.
For you argument to stand, we have redefine the meaning of normality, i.e. "It's NORMAL for a defender to lead low from K empty in this situation".
a
about
Then
he
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: I think declarer should play C8 at trick 1 anyway, even when holding AQ
: tight. But anyway that is not the point of discussion.
: For the play of D, I think if declarer had JTx, it is still normal to lead a
: low diamond from his hand. The reason is that declarer cannot be sure about
: the location of CK. For all he knows, the opening leader may have CK. Then
: playing low D from hand may induce LHO to jump DK, which is exactly what he
: wants.
| | | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 31 Maybe. But sometimes there is no good lead. For example, what should Shi
lead if he does have CK? Now he will have SK, DA, CK, singleton H (and not
knowing declarer has 10 trumps), which one should he lead?
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: That's why I kept asking for the bidding.
: As declarer opened strong NT then simply transferred and raised to 4H,
: nobody would lead low from K empty. would you?
: As he didn't lead DQ from dummy, it's a strong evidence he didn't have JTx in hand.
: For you argument to stand, we have redefine the meaning of normality, i.e. "It's NORMAL for a defender to lead low from K empty in this situation".
:
: a
: about
: Then
: he
|
|
